The lottery is not rigged. But statistics do run true to form and not to the expectations of those who don’t understand statistics. Some have posted the actual odds of one or more teams passing us. Those odds are not small. Statistics are truly random but most of us don’t understand that either. Having some teams, obviously including the Mavs not do well in multiple years absolutely happens in random draws. Statistics give us odds but have little to do with any one drawing and have absolutely nothing to do with conspiracy theories.
Research Design class in Grad School.
NBA powers might enjoy a bad outcome for us but they have no power to cause it.
(05-15-2023, 07:00 PM)Reunion Mav Wrote: [ -> ]The lottery is not rigged. But statistics do run true to form and not to the expectations of those who don’t understand statistics. Some have posted the actual odds of one or more teams passing us. Those odds are not small. Statistics are truly random but most of us don’t understand that either. Having some teams, obviously including the Mavs not do well in multiple years absolutely happens in random draws. Statistics give us odds but have little to do with any one drawing and have absolutely nothing to do with conspiracy theories.
Research Design class in Grad School.
NBA powers might enjoy a bad outcome for us but they have no power to cause it.
PS. There is also nothing in statistics that would prevent the random draw from favoring us this time. In a random draw there is no such thing as being due. There is also nothing that prevents this particular random draw from being #1.
Go ahead. Have a small amount of appropriate hope.
(05-15-2023, 03:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]This might be cynical, but on a year when the Mavs were the only team punished for overtly tanking, I have a tough time imagining the NBA allowing them to win the lottery.
You can't be serious.
(05-15-2023, 04:19 PM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: [ -> ]My exact thoughts. No way we win the lottery. And i doubt we even keep our pick this year. The NBA will not let us win.
Are you serious???
(05-15-2023, 07:00 PM)Reunion Mav Wrote: [ -> ]The lottery is not rigged.
NBA powers might enjoy a bad outcome for us, but they have no power to cause it.
Three (or more) cheers for sanity. Thank you, Reunion Mav.
(05-15-2023, 08:07 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]You can't be serious.
I am quite serious, and I don’t believe one must adopt a blanket “the lottery is rigged” viewpoint to see the logic in what I’m suggesting.
(04-27-2023, 02:30 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]I’ve got a target fellas.
In this universe, Atlanta has someone they really want at 10 and they make the decision to promote Okongwu and move Capela. We get 15.
I don’t do this trade of one of Walker, Whitmore, Hendricks is on the board.
I'm guessing this is what you have in mind.
THJ+10 for Capela+15 (Schifino).
Seems to me like this favors the Mavs a bit, but if the Hawks are really into a player they like, I'm not going to say this is improbable. It would have been very handy if the Mavs have second round picks to add to even things up.
But anyway, IMHo a Schifino pick at 10 or a trade down tells something about Kyrie's tenure with the Mavs. The Mavs could, of course, have a sign-and-trade that nets them a decent PG in exchange for Kyrie, but whether or not that's the case, the Mavs could use playmaker to develop rather than pick up from the likes of Beverly, Joseph, Dragic, etc for their back-up/third string PGs.
Note: I like Whitmore the most for all the realistic choices at 10, but I'm okay wth a Schifino pick at 10 too.
I saw Coach spins in YouTube has Ausar Thompson #10 on his big board. I am really unfamiliar on the twins. I checked out his brother Amen and holy heck is he an athlete. His brother is not bad either but Amen is ridiculous.
Like I said a while ago… The best way to prove the lottery isn’t rigged would be to rig it for the Mavs.
(05-15-2023, 09:11 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Like I said a while ago… The best way to prove the lottery isn’t rigged would be to rig it for the Mavs.
Agreed.
And the NBA would be sponsoring article after article that the Mavs aren't deserving of a pick this season but because the NBA is fair and just (and not rigged), the Mavs get a high pick.
If the NBA is truly rigged, I can't see the Mavs picking at 1, but the NBA can hand the Mavs a pick from 3 to 4 easily just to throw out compelling (but fake) evidence in the NBA's favor.
(05-15-2023, 09:28 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed.
And the NBA would be sponsoring article after article that the Mavs aren't deserving of a pick this season but because the NBA is fair and just (and not rigged), the Mavs get a high pick.
If the NBA is truly rigged, I can't see the Mavs picking at 1, but the NBA can hand the Mavs a pick from 3 to 4 easily just to throw out compelling (but fake) evidence in the NBA's favor.
Maybe we could re-enact the January 6th riot if we don't get what we want.
Dear Lottery Gods,
Aren't we Mavs fans due?
Love,
Everyone
(05-15-2023, 08:53 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]I'm guessing this is what you have in mind.
THJ+10 for Capela+15 (Schifino).
Seems to me like this favors the Mavs a bit, but if the Hawks are really into a player they like, I'm not going to say this is improbable. It would have been very handy if the Mavs have second round picks to add to even things up.
But anyway, IMHo a Schifino pick at 10 or a trade down tells something about Kyrie's tenure with the Mavs. The Mavs could, of course, have a sign-and-trade that nets them a decent PG in exchange for Kyrie, but whether or not that's the case, the Mavs could use playmaker to develop rather than pick up from the likes of Beverly, Joseph, Dragic, etc for their back-up/third string PGs.
Note: I like Whitmore the most for all the realistic choices at 10, but I'm okay wth a Schifino pick at 10 too.
I posted that trade idea and it was their choice of THJ or Bertans. They have to pay Murray, Bey and Okongwu after next season. Bertans is the way to clear all the cap while THJ clears some cap but has on court contribution. Either way, it’s roughly even in value IMO. Capela isn’t worth a ton more than THJ. He gets played off the court like all C’s in the playoffs.
With 15, I pick Lively (unless we can trade down further and get another asset and Lively). I really like Lively (especially after seeing his player comparison to Tyson Chandler), but he’s gonna take at least a couple years to be ready to start. Capela is a couple years from being ready to come off the bench. When Lively is ready, make the switch and be set at the C position for many many years.
(05-16-2023, 07:07 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I posted that trade idea and it was their choice of THJ or Bertans. They have to pay Murray, Bey and Okongwu after next season. Bertans is the way to clear all the cap while THJ clears some cap but has on court contribution. Either way, it’s roughly even in value IMO. Capela isn’t worth a ton more than THJ. He gets played off the court like all C’s in the playoffs.
With 15, I pick Lively (unless we can trade down further and get another asset and Lively). I really like Lively (especially after seeing his player comparison to Tyson Chandler), but he’s gonna take at least a couple years to be ready to start. Capela is a couple years from being ready to come off the bench. When Lively is ready, make the switch and be set at the C position for many many years.
I like Capella. I am not sure any of THJ or Bertans solves Atlanta issues. THJ has same contract length as Capella, while Bertans is more or less useless and still owed 5 mil after next season. THJ would also play basically same role as Bogdanovic. Bullock might be much more interesting as he is expiring. Bullock + McGee would work, but not sure how interested Atlanta would be in that crappy contract. Involving third team would require further assets.
THJ+Bullock for Hunter and Capella would be very interesting for Mavs (plus pick, of course). Not sure if Atlanta sees value here.
The NBA rigs the system. Their lottery process is a joke. I hope to be proven 100% wrong tonight.
Lets see if you guys feel the same way when we get jumped by Chicago or OKC (or both) and we hand that pick over to the Knicks.
It has been mentioned in this thread already, but the way to prove the system is not rigged is for the Mavs to move up. That will prove this thought wrong.
Hollinger has an article on his top 20 prospects today in the athletic. He is not a 100% as he has been way off on some prospects (aren’t we all), but he does have years of experience. He was way low on Hardy last year.
He has Whitmore at #3. Black at #5. Both twins at 5 and 6. Lively at 8. Hendricks at 9 and Buffon at 10. Walker at 12 and Wallace at 13. There are a few guys late that I really like (Jacquez for example) that I thought would be probable second round picks.
I just skimmed the article and just looked at the rankings for now.
(05-16-2023, 09:56 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Hollinger has an article on his top 20 prospects today in the athletic. He is not a 100% as he has been way off on some prospects (aren’t we all), but he does have years of experience. He was way low on Hardy last year.
He has Whitmore at #3. Black at #5. Both twins at 5 and 6. Lively at 8. Hendricks at 9 and Buffon at 10. Walker at 12 and Wallace at 13. There are a few guys late that I really like (Jacquez for example) that I thought would be probable second round picks.
I just skimmed the article and just looked at the rankings for now.
Some notes:
The mid to late lottery looks as weak as it has in years. 2024 class look bad.
He called Lively a “Playoff Five”. He can rim run, Protect the rim and defend the perimeter. In other words, he won’t get played off the court in the playoffs. No O to speak of at all, but D is better than Mark Williams taken a year ago in the late lottery.
(05-16-2023, 10:42 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Some notes:
The mid to late lottery looks as weak as it has in years. 2024 class look bad.
He called Lively a “Playoff Five”. He can rim run, Protect the rim and defend the perimeter. In other words, he won’t get played off the court in the playoffs. No O to speak of at all, but D is better than Mark Williams taken a year ago in the late lottery.
That would put Lively in play for the Mavs. We don't need the O at all, especially if we have Kyrie.
And i'm willing to bet he offers more on the offensive end that Powell. So still an upgrade on both ends.
(05-15-2023, 08:40 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I am quite serious, and I don’t believe one must adopt a blanket “the lottery is rigged” viewpoint to see the logic in what I’m suggesting.
Are you simply suggesting karma then?
(05-16-2023, 07:22 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I like Capella. I am not sure any of THJ or Bertans solves Atlanta issues. THJ has same contract length as Capella, while Bertans is more or less useless and still owed 5 mil after next season. THJ would also play basically same role as Bogdanovic. Bullock might be much more interesting as he is expiring. Bullock + McGee would work, but not sure how interested Atlanta would be in that crappy contract. Involving third team would require further assets.
THJ+Bullock for Hunter and Capella would be very interesting for Mavs (plus pick, of course). Not sure if Atlanta sees value here.
Bertans would be bought out immediately so he only counts against their cap next season since he pretty much wouldn’t play anyway. Capela’s full contract value is then off the books in time to resign the 3 players needing to be paid. That is an issue solved. I heard some chatter that Atl needed more shooters on the team. THJ’s contract declines giving about $6M difference between Capels’s last year and his. Some money savings and on court value.
Bey and Okongwu need the year without Collins and Capela taking up all the court time to give Atl the chance to see what they’re worth is for that contract signing.
If they do need more shooting, Gradey Dick is possibly at #10 (so Bertans in the trade) either that or one of the guys we’ve been liking. There is a better tier of prospects sitting at 10 vs 15. They can then look to trade Collins for something and have some hope.
I think there’s plenty for Atl to like in the trade.