(05-18-2021, 01:50 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:This team also had way more lost games and lost starter games than just about any team (I think the Heat was the only team close).
The mentioned number only accounts for COVID related missed games. I already mentioned some other examples. AD missed 36 games (half of the season). LeBron missed 26 games.
That's kind of the point you seem to be missing. AD missing games due to injury could (in fact does) happen in any season. Anyone making predictions about the Lakers' seasons will always need to factor a fair amount of absences for AD into the estimate. Lebron's injury was less predictable, but he is getting older, and, again, a 30+ high-usage player spraining his ankle and missing a lot of games is the type of thing that can happen any season. Losing multiple key players to a pandemic and then getting them back at a percentage of their normal selves for an extended period while they recover is not something that happens every season--and it's not something that happened to every team or to the same degree to the teams it did impact.
In thinking about how the Lakers will do going forward, it's fair to factor in that the team now is different than the team that fell to 7th place in the absence of their stars. In thinking about how the Mavs will do going forward, it's fair to distinguish the second-half of the season team, post Covid troubles, from the first half of the season team.
(05-18-2021, 04:35 PM)Arioch Wrote: [ -> ]That's kind of the point you seem to be missing. AD missing games due to injury could (in fact does) happen in any season. Anyone making predictions about the Lakers' seasons will always need to factor a fair amount of absences for AD into the estimate. Lebron's injury was less predictable, but he is getting older, and, again, a 30+ high-usage player spraining his ankle and missing a lot of games is the type of thing that can happen any season. Losing multiple key players to a pandemic and then getting them back at a percentage of their normal selves for an extended period while they recover is not something that happens every season--and it's not something that happened to every team or to the same degree to the teams it did impact.
In thinking about how the Lakers will do going forward, it's fair to factor in that the team now is different than the team that fell to 7th place in the absence of their stars. In thinking about how the Mavs will do going forward, it's fair to distinguish the second-half of the season team, post Covid troubles, from the first half of the season team.
The AD logic also applies in KPs case. Doesn´t it?
Some freak injuries will happen no matter what and some teams will be hit harder than others. COVID added another freak incident scenario. And yes COVID hit the Mavs harder than most teams. Only comparable teams are in the east (Celtics, Heat). Doesn´t mean that a max player going down with a fractured foot isn´t just as much of a season changer.
Overall the Mavs probably aren´t as good as the record in the 2nd half of the season suggests (easier schedule, somewhat healthy roster). They obviously aren´t as bad as the early season record suggested. That´s the only point I am trying to make. It´s not a good idea to use the best case scenario for a record prediction. As you mentioned. We have to account for health (injury-prone players missing games), schedule and many more things. Not even including any unpredictable scenarios (season ending injuries or COVID).
(05-18-2021, 01:27 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with some of this, but I think we took a much bigger hit than just about the entire NBA due to Covid. If KP gets that injury in a normal playoff timeline, he has plenty of time to recuperate and be ready for the start of the season. This team also had way more lost games and lost starter games than just about any team (I think the Heat was the only team close). That is different than your typical injury concerns. It was a unique once a lifetime circumstance that really screwed this team.
Powell also came back way sooner than most ever had and was not good until recently when most would have come back...
KP also came back earlier than another player did this season also...
(05-17-2021, 08:45 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]The thing that's driving me nuts is overanalyzing Mavs in this soft closing schedule including last night. You should throw out all those games. The Mavs were not trying hard enough. That's a problem in some sense sure and I don't like it but the good news is Mavs won't be playing bad teams they don't care about in the playoffs.
Look at games Mavs actually played hard this last month or so:
- Nets - win
- Heat - win
- Wizards - win
- Warriors - win
- Lakers - back to back wins
I am not sure the last game the Mavs actually cared about that they lost since maybe the Knicks in mid-April? I think they played the Knicks hard this season so that was a game the Mavs just lost. But that was a month ago. Mavs have had impressive wins. I don't know what it means exactly for the Clippers except that I expect Mavs to be competitive.
If I were to analyze stats I would want to analyze stats from those types of games that the Mavs clearly saw as important matchups. Since a lot of those games were statement wins I would suppose our defensive and offensive numbers were pretty good. I am not cherry-picking either bc this Mavs team more than any other I can remember clearly plays with 10x more effort in matchups they care about. While its annoying as a fan I am impressed that the Mavs still managed to get the 5th seed despite lazy efforts against teams like the Kings.
Those stats are kinda nuts. Mavs have the 4th best record in the league against .500 teams. 3rd best in the West behind Utah/Suns.
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/...8275060737
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/...3486259203
Clippers Fans think getting rid of Lou is a plus for them. I guess we will see.
(05-19-2021, 09:58 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]Clippers Fans think getting rid of Lou is a plus for them. I guess we will see.
I was puzzled with that trade. Felt Lou was a killer against the Mavs last year.
(05-19-2021, 10:24 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I was puzzled with that trade. Felt Lou was a killer against the Mavs last year.
He looked like a shadow of his former self this season. 12/2/3 51.9% TS. And obviously a big negative on defense. Rondo is averaging 8/3/6 60.9% TS. He is giving them the traditional PG play that they lacked last year. Distributing the ball and setting up PG and Kawhi. Also a way better defender.
Absolutely hate Rondo but I have to admit that once he swallowed his ego (post Mavs, Kings) he turned into a really good role player.
(05-19-2021, 09:58 AM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]Those stats are kinda nuts. Mavs have the 4th best record in the league against .500 teams. 3rd best in the West behind Utah/Suns.
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/...8275060737
https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/...3486259203
Clippers Fans think getting rid of Lou is a plus for them. I guess we will see.
The exchanges of Lou for Rondo and Doc for Lue seem like major minuses to me. But I haven’t been studying the Clips.
The Mavs, however, I’ve been watching. And I hafta wonder how much of their struggles against poor teams is about being built to contend with the spread offenses—Warrior-style stuff that has taken over the top half of the league. Seems to me it’s the old-school teams, who play a bruising inside game, that Mavs have struggled with. Think Julius Randle types. Even guards who play physical are a struggle for us.
But teams that play old-style aren’t in the top tier of the league, with perhaps the exception of Philly, who beat us by 14 and 18 in 2 tries this season.
Just a theory. I don’t buy that Mavs don’t care about the lesser matchups.
(05-19-2021, 05:35 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t buy that Mavs don’t care about the lesser matchups.
I do because its easy to see the difference in effort. Mavs don't care about the Kings or Wolves and it shows. But the good news is of course Mavs play playoff basketball and have won big games.
By the end of this series you will all realize:
Kristaps is our second star
Maxi/DFS are essential defenders
Dwight gimmick PnR doesn't work in the playoffs
(05-20-2021, 10:00 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Dwight gimmick PnR doesn't work in the playoffs
Sure, they'll take it away. You're seeing better organized defense in the playoffs, as it's later in the season and you're playing better teams. And, they know what you're trying to do with each action, because they have an entire season's worth of video. So, sure - Powell won't be getting many wide open oops. But, what they're doing to take that away leaves someone else open, so it's still effective IF the team is good enough to get to the 3rd or 4th option, and IF that guy buries the shot.
(05-20-2021, 01:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Sure, they'll take it away. You're seeing better organized defense in the playoffs, as it's later in the season and you're playing better teams. And, they know what you're trying to do with each action, because they have an entire season's worth of video. So, sure - Powell won't be getting many wide open oops. But, what they're doing to take that away leaves someone else open, so it's still effective IF the team is good enough to get to the 3rd or 4th option, and IF that guy buries the shot.
Nah bro. Dwight will be completely ineffective. Game 1 and 2 will be rough unless we are scorching from 3. 3 ball could open it up for Dwight and make me look stupid (I don't care). I trust Rick to adjust. Having Maxi and DFS out there as much as possible will be necessary to have any chance at slowing Kawhi and PG. Luka/THJ/DFS/Maxi/KP will be our best lineup. If Maxi isn't healthy for this series our chances of winning are below 10%. Would need Shitardson to step up, but I have my doubts.
(05-20-2021, 01:59 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Nah bro. Dwight will be completely ineffective. Game 1 and 2 will be rough unless we are scorching from 3. 3 ball could open it up for Dwight and make me look stupid (I don't care). I trust Rick to adjust. Having Maxi and DFS out there as much as possible will be necessary to have any chance at slowing Kawhi and PG. Luka/THJ/DFS/Maxi/KP will be our best lineup. If Maxi isn't healthy for this series our chances of winning are below 10%. Would need Shitardson to step up, but I have my doubts.
Remove Timoshit Jr. and get J-Rich in the starting lineup. It's our most used lineup and it has a very positive point diferencial. We'll be doomed if Timoshit plays more than 25mpg. Kawhi PG and co. will hunt him down on D for easy ISO buckets while he chucks up for a 40% FG/35% 3pt on 10+ FGA.
(05-20-2021, 01:59 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Nah bro. Dwight will be completely ineffective.
So you're saying A) the opposing defense won't take steps to take away Powell's roll game and yet B) he won't score on any rolls? I don't follow, sorry.
If the other team adjusts to take this away, they can. Powell won't score many points in that scenario, for sure, but simple math tells you that the third defender getting involved to take away the lob creates opportunities for other Mavs players. In my book, that's Powell being effective.
Really curious to see how KP plays. I expect him to be a lot more aggressive than he was in the regular season. In the bubble he went to the line a lot, he didn’t do much of that throughout the season.
I still think he has a future here. But he has to show up now to get some silence.
I'm okay with loosing the series, it’s the most likely outcome. But there has to be significant changes in the organization this offseason. Coach, GM, new players. There’s a ton at stake. We have a lot of talent with Luka, KP, Brunson, Green/Terry/Bey, DFS, Maxi. But the FO has to stop messing up FA summer after FA summer and the coach can’t be first round fodder yet again while at the same time icing out the young players for that much of the season. What Carlisle did with Green/Bey was ludicrous for most of the year. The only way to justify that is to win a playoff series.
If not RC needs to finally go. It’s been a poor decade, results don’t lie.
I don't agree that Rick has any chance of leaving. And which team did he "underperform" with in the last decade? Rick almost upset the Spurs with a team that started Samuel Dalembert. I can't think of a Mavs team that didn't meet expectations given the talent.
The one year maybe you could point to would be the Rondo year but I would put that on Donnie. All these mediocre teams are on Donnie and Cubes, not the coach. They mishandled Dirk's late prime and then wallowed in purgatory before Luka got here. I give credit for Donnie getting Luka and KP (no matter how the KP situation plays out). I think Donnie really screwed up the post-KP 2019 moves in giving away Barnes for nothing and then passing on very good FAs (Bog, Brog). We landed Curry but then gave him away.
So ya if something needs to change its GM not coach.
(05-20-2021, 03:49 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]So you're saying A) the opposing defense won't take steps to take away Powell's roll game and yet B) he won't score on any rolls? I don't follow, sorry.
If the other team adjusts to take this away, they can. Powell won't score many points in that scenario, for sure, but simple math tells you that the third defender getting involved to take away the lob creates opportunities for other Mavs players. In my book, that's Powell being effective.
Now that I think about it more I am quite sure they will blitz Luka every time KP is not the screener. Having Dwight on the floor will force them ball out of our best player's hands. I have no confidence that our other guys can score consistently enough to win a best of 7 in that scenario.
(05-20-2021, 04:29 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]I don't agree that Rick has any chance of leaving. And which team did he "underperform" with in the last decade? Rick almost upset the Spurs with a team that started Samuel Dalembert. I can't think of a Mavs team that didn't meet expectations given the talent.
The one year maybe you could point to would be the Rondo year but I would put that on Donnie. All these mediocre teams are on Donnie and Cubes, not the coach. They mishandled Dirk's late prime and then wallowed in purgatory before Luka got here. I give credit for Donnie getting Luka and KP (no matter how the KP situation plays out). I think Donnie really screwed up the post-KP 2019 moves in giving away Barnes for nothing and then passing on very good FAs (Bog, Brog). We landed Curry but then gave him away.
So ya if something needs to change its GM not coach.
Besides the coach (unless he can buy himself more time with a won playoff series) Donnie needs to go, too. Guys like Ujiri are the benchmark. We have a lot of room for improvement at both positions.
I’d happily move on from both. It’s long overdue.
Luka needs more help both on and off the court.
(05-20-2021, 04:40 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Now that I think about it more I am quite sure they will blitz Luka every time KP is not the screener. Having Dwight on the floor will force them ball out of our best player's hands. I have no confidence that our other guys can score consistently enough to win a best of 7 in that scenario.
They could bring the double to make Luka give up the ball a lot and then rely on Dwight and company to execute. We saw this strategy fail miserably when employed by the Lakers but if you have a good defender back there you might disrupt what the Mavs want to do. Clippers don't seem to me like a team that would do a lot of doubling since they have elite wing defenders.
