(03-23-2023, 02:21 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I am speaking to the idea -- often expressed, and again implied in your response -- that this Mavs team certainly WILL make the playoffs, if they (simply) want to. That ignores the reality that -- even with Luka and Kyrie -- they are a fairly bad team. That's what renders a "decision to win the rest of the games" fairly meaningless -- ie, meaningless in relation to what it will produce. They aren't good enough to decide themselves into the playoffs, no matter how hard they want it.
Certainly wasn't trying to imply that and I don't disagree that they have looked like a bad team since the trade (although we don't really have any real sample size because of health to base much of anything on IMO). I guess what I'm trying to say is that making the decision to intentionally lose games would be
meaningful and I think that is really being glossed over in the conversation.
(03-23-2023, 01:53 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I think Luka will get over two weeks of tanking
You don't think Luka watching the playoffs from his couch would bother him at all? The dude hates losing and loves the stage and you think intentionally pushing him into a situation to have to deal with both those things wouldn't have
any affect on him?
Well one more tech will take care of the next game...
It doesn't matter, Kidd is stubborn enough to win the last game of the season even if we COULDN'T make the playoffs.
(03-24-2023, 10:02 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]You don't think Luka watching the playoffs from his couch would bother him at all? The dude hates losing and loves the stage and you think intentionally pushing him into a situation to have to deal with both those things wouldn't have any affect on him?
Obviously Luka would want the spotlight. But wow, being held hostage to immaturity?
1 If Luka ever wants to play on the BIGGEST stage, there is no question the Mavs need an infusion of much better talent.
2 There are legit questions arising about Luka's priorities, and maturity, since with great regularity he seems more interested in negotiating for favorable whistles and playing hero ball than in playing the game in a winning manner.
3 The adults in the room (if there are any) should never cater to those whose only interest is instant gratification. Someone needs to make the hard decisions.
4 Luka seething over and having to deal with a lost season would be a good thing, if it made him grow up in how he approaches the game. And let's be honest, it's time to face the truth that this is a lost season, and huge changes are needed.
(03-24-2023, 10:21 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously Luka would want the spotlight. But wow, being held hostage to immaturity?
1 If Luka ever wants to play on the BIGGEST stage, there is no question the Mavs need an infusion of much better talent.
2 There are legit questions arising about Luka's priorities, and maturity, since with great regularity he seems more interested in negotiating for favorable whistles and playing hero ball than in playing the game in a winning manner.
3 The adults in the room (if there are any) should never cater to those whose only interest is instant gratification. Someone needs to make the hard decisions.
4 Luka seething over and having to deal with a lost season would be a good thing, if it made him grow up in how he approaches the game. And let's be honest, it's time to face the truth that this is a lost season, and huge changes are needed.
I agree with all of these points don't get me wrong and I seriously hope that Luka gets his shit together and someone shows him the HUNDREDS of points his whining led to this season but even with that...we all know that the stars in this league have all the leverage for a reason.
People want to get better talent and keep our pick because they don't want Luka to get upset and leave but I'm simply saying that intentionally going after a draft pick right now could also upset him and end up being counter productive.
(03-24-2023, 10:21 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously Luka would want the spotlight. But wow, being held hostage to immaturity?
1 If Luka ever wants to play on the BIGGEST stage, there is no question the Mavs need an infusion of much better talent.
2 There are legit questions arising about Luka's priorities, and maturity, since with great regularity he seems more interested in negotiating for favorable whistles and playing hero ball than in playing the game in a winning manner.
3 The adults in the room (if there are any) should never cater to those whose only interest is instant gratification. Someone needs to make the hard decisions.
4 Luka seething over and having to deal with a lost season would be a good thing, if it made him grow up in how he approaches the game. And let's be honest, it's time to face the truth that this is a lost season, and huge changes are needed.
Wow. Luka is not the problem of this franchise. He is not perfect, but he is not the problem. I think that is obvious from the time he doesn't play. Mavs aren't any better/different when he doesn't play. They are worse.
As for your points:
1. He can also leave to somewhere where they are able to build around him
2. Not relevant to the tanking question at all. These are just your impressions about Luka
3. Instant gratification? Mavs are building a team around Luka for 5 years now and seem to get worse with every try. Luka on the other hand showed clear improvement over years. That doesn't mean he is perfect. But he is improving, the team is not.
4. True, changes are needed. I don't think they are that huge or difficult to accomplish, though. Mavs have to use the remaining assets and bring in a couple of good defenders, who don't have to be elite offensive talents. I don't think a position this year will have much impact on the ability for them to do it. Unprotected picks have similar value than the lottery pick they may hope to get this year by badly losing every remaining game
While I was considering the tanking option and leaning towards that, I came to conclusion that keeping this years pick doesn't really give much more value compared to having two picks available in future years. I think Mavs are in win now mode and any pick will likely be traded. Unless they get extremely lucky and get a top3 pick.
Luka can't go anywhere for years. He is under contract. (And no matter how it's spun, he is almost certain to sign the next contract with Dallas as well.)
I don't have any argument about the need to be sensitive to his preferences -- it's just good policy to try to make him want to be here rather than intentionally or negligently make life hard for him -- but I don't believe it's productive to have a dynamic of walking on eggshells in your FO decision-making with abject fear that he might get upset.
The argument is being made that the franchise needs to be held hostage to Luka's whims of the moment, and shrink in fear of doing what needs to be done for the future. But everyone accepts that what is most likely to create the most dissatisfaction for him is the lack of a roster around him that has enough talent to compete for titles. My point is, in the light of that, adults sometimes may have to bite the bullet and make hard choices for the good of all, in pursuit of the bigger goals.
Do we really think that Luka would prefer wins now, over shots at titles later, and would force his way out of Dallas in response to Mavs doing what they have to do to enhance future title chances? That doesn't pass the smell test.
A future pick isn't worth as much to the Mavs as a top 10 pick now. They need an injection of talent NOW, not later. And this would be the BEST pick they would have for quite some time, rather than a pick in the 20s. Nor is it an either-or -- they can have BOTH a top 10 pick now to supplement their talent, and a future unprotected pick to trade, if they wish.
If you don't think Luka whines way too much (causing 4-on-5's, being late down the floor, getting techs that will sideline him and also give up free points, and keeps him from focusing on the game), then you aren't watching. It's a real issue that is getting bigger and bigger as time goes on. Really bad habits -- and awful leadership.
(01-29-2023, 04:26 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Catching up to those early tankers and truly atrocious teams is never as easy as losing a few games, because the teams you are chasing are losing too.
And because there are so many bad teams in the East, Mavs have to get about where LAL is or lower, to be assured of a top 10 pick.
Here's the task now. They have to lose about 2/3 of their remaining games to have a solid shot at successfully getting that top 10 pick. Or to put it another way, they can only afford to win 9-10 games over the entire remainder of the season. When you see it in those terms, and know the PLAYERS are going to play to win, it's hard. You probably have to get Kidd's cooperation in setting lineups to make it work, unless you get lots of help from the injury monster with key players (like Luka).
(01-31-2023, 12:01 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Barely beating the bad teams in a home game, that's an indicator of who they are. But for purposes of tanking, a W is a W, and each one makes the possibility of a top 10 pick just a bit smaller.
Here's what I wrote above, but with an update --
"Here's the task now. They have to lose about 2/3 of their remaining games to have a solid shot at successfully getting that top 10 pick...[meaning] they can only afford to win 9-10 8-9 games over the entire remainder of the season. When you see it in those terms, and know the PLAYERS are going to play to win, it's hard. You probably have to get Kidd's cooperation in setting lineups to make it work, unless you get lots of help from the injury monster with key players (like Luka)."
Had we started the tank when you posted this, we’d be sitting pretty right about now.
We’ve won 9 games since Jan 29th. It’s not reasonable to think we’d lose all of them, but 5 out of the 9? Sure, most of them were within 10 point wins. If we were sitting at 31-41 we’d be sitting ahead of Portland for the #6 pick with 37.2% chance to get in the top 4 and a 9% chance at #1.
I just don't see it. You really going to go to battle telling Luka to sit the last two weeks? what if he says F that? Really? That is a battle you want to fight? Hey, The Mavs don't have it this year, but the West is a mess. Are you really going to tell a top 5 player to put up his shoes in the most important part of the season. The part of the season that makes going through the long regular season worth it? You tell him to sit now, you may lose him faster than any other mistake that has been made.
Plus, there are other ways to find talent. In most cases, a top 10 pick is not an all star. Some are. I need to learn more about this draft, but I think I liked last years back half of the 10 better than this year. But I could be wrong and could change my opinion. Dallas may very well have gotten a lottery level talent in the second round. So while this won't happen every year, there are ways to find talent. If you take that part seriously.
I would have been fine tanking the end of Luka's rookie year. This is different. The Mavs need to hold themselves to a higher standard. If Luka is hurt, that is a completely different story. A little run, even if it ends in the first or second round, may even pay off in the future too.
(03-24-2023, 11:48 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I just don't see it. You really going to go to battle telling Luka to sit the last two weeks? what if he says F that? Really? That is a battle you want to fight? Hey, The Mavs don't have it this year, but the West is a mess. Are you really going to tell a top 5 player to put up his shoes in the most important part of the season. The part of the season that makes going through the long regular season worth it? You tell him to sit now, you may lose him faster than any other mistake that has been made.
Plus, there are other ways to find talent. In most cases, a top 10 pick is not an all star. Some are. I need to learn more about this draft, but I think I liked last years back half of the 10 better than this year. But I could be wrong and could change my opinion. Dallas may very well have gotten a lottery level talent in the second round. So while this won't happen every year, there are ways to find talent. If you take that part seriously.
I would have been fine tanking the end of Luka's rookie year. This is different. The Mavs need to hold themselves to a higher standard. If Luka is hurt, that is a completely different story. A little run, even if it ends in the first or second round, may even pay off in the future too.
Luka is competitive as hell, but I think he would understand the decision if it meant drastically improving their chances next year. That would require trading the pick for an established player rather than drafting someone.
I don't expect them to make the call right now since they are still in the play-in. That could easily change though if they were to lose these next two against Charlotte or if one of Luka/Kyrie suffers another injury setback.
I don't think I'd care if he likes it or not. If that is what was best for the team to do, with less than 10 games left, too damn bad.
They aren't going to do anything if they make the playoffs.
(03-24-2023, 11:15 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Luka can't go anywhere for years. He is under contract. (And no matter how it's spun, he is almost certain to sign the next contract with Dallas as well.)
I don't have any argument about the need to be sensitive to his preferences -- it's just good policy to try to make him want to be here rather than intentionally or negligently make life hard for him -- but I don't believe it's productive to have a dynamic of walking on eggshells in your FO decision-making with abject fear that he might get upset.
The argument is being made that the franchise needs to be held hostage to Luka's whims of the moment, and shrink in fear of doing what needs to be done for the future. But everyone accepts that what is most likely to create the most dissatisfaction for him is the lack of a roster around him that has enough talent to compete for titles. My point is, in the light of that, adults sometimes may have to bite the bullet and make hard choices for the good of all, in pursuit of the bigger goals.
Do we really think that Luka would prefer wins now, over shots at titles later, and would force his way out of Dallas in response to Mavs doing what they have to do to enhance future title chances? That doesn't pass the smell test.
A future pick isn't worth as much to the Mavs as a top 10 pick now. They need an injection of talent NOW, not later. And this would be the BEST pick they would have for quite some time, rather than a pick in the 20s. Nor is it an either-or -- they can have BOTH a top 10 pick now to supplement their talent, and a future unprotected pick to trade, if they wish.
If you don't think Luka whines way too much (causing 4-on-5's, being late down the floor, getting techs that will sideline him and also give up free points, and keeps him from focusing on the game), then you aren't watching. It's a real issue that is getting bigger and bigger as time goes on. Really bad habits -- and awful leadership.
Giving up when things aren't looking good (but not lost yet) is also not really a positive leadership lesson. While reaching playoffs directly is becoming a theoretic thing, Mavs can still get there through play-in. I don't believe they are a contender and didn't believe in it when the season started. But just giving up even before it started...
There are serious risks that tanking (starting with two bad losses against one of worst teams in the league) would finish with:
a) Mavs (NY) still ending with top20 pick or
b) Mavs picking wrong
Absolutely no guarantee it would work out and while we may discuss endlesly, I don't think there is a significant difference between asset value comparing the two possibilities. I don't believe the potential tanking brings outweights the risks. If tanking would be an option, it should be done correctly and way sooner.
If I would consider tanking, it would be done in these steps:
1. fire Nico
2. fire Kidd
3. start the tank and do it properly (losing all 9 games convincingly)
Message to everyone - we understand the mistakes we made and we want to get serious. Next step after the finished tank - pay big the best available GM and coach.
(03-24-2023, 12:18 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]Luka is competitive as hell, but I think he would understand the decision if it meant drastically improving their chances next year.
Thats the whole point. It doesn't drastically improve their chances. In all cases, they have two picks to trade. Neither package will net you a star.
(03-24-2023, 01:21 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Thats the whole point. It doesn't drastically improve their chances. In all cases, they have two picks to trade. Neither package will net you a star.
So, we could not trade 23, 25 and 27?
(03-24-2023, 01:58 PM)chaparral Wrote: [ -> ]So, we could not trade 23, 25 and 27?
No. If we get 2023 pick, the 2024 one is owed to NY, allowing Mavs to trade only 2027 pick
(03-24-2023, 02:19 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]No. If we get 2023 pick, the 2024 one is owed to NY, allowing Mavs to trade only 2027 pick
We could package 23, 26 and 28, couldn’t we?
(03-24-2023, 01:21 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Thats the whole point. It doesn't drastically improve their chances. In all cases, they have two picks to trade. Neither package will net you a star.
They need two starters. Neither has to be a star, but they should be clear upgrades to the current roster. A top 10 pick in this year's draft can absolutely help fill one of those spots. It's much harder to pull off when the picks you can offer are likely to be late in the 1st round. Despite their struggles this year, I doubt any team is going to view a 25 or 27 Dallas 1st as a likely lottery pick.
(03-24-2023, 02:19 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]No. If we get 2023 pick, the 2024 one is owed to NY, allowing Mavs to trade only 2027 pick
So, we wouldn’t exactly owe 24 cause that is top 10 restricted too. It’s still the same restraints you’re talking about in that we only have 27 to trade as long as we don’t use the top 10 pick to reacquire our pick from the Knicks, and then some.
(03-24-2023, 03:06 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]So, we wouldn’t exactly owe 24 cause that is top 10 restricted too. It’s still the same restraints you’re talking about in that we only have 27 to trade as long as we don’t use the top 10 pick to reacquire our pick from the Knicks, and then some.
There are many options what to do with 23 pick. There are many options what to do with 25 pick too (or 24 for that matter). Unfortunately, we can only guess what exactly is possible. Not sure why you are so sure Knicks would be up for this. Since we mention them, I think they will have only one goal this offseason - get a star or two.
(03-24-2023, 03:03 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]A top 10 pick in this year's draft can absolutely help fill one of those spots.
It is very rare that rookie can contribute immediately to a contender and it is also possible the pick is a fail overall. Expecting a rookie to play serious starter minutes and contribute is a tall task. Not saying it is impossible, but it is also far from absolutely
2022 players from top 9 picks that couldn't contribute on a contender as a starter in their rookie season: Holmgren (out for season), Sharpe, Daniels
2021: Suggs, Mitchell, Kuminga (barely played his rookie season)
2020: Wiseman, Williams, Okoro, Okongwu, Hayes, Toppin, Avdija
2019: Culver, White, Hayes, Hachimura
(03-24-2023, 03:03 PM)loki Wrote: [ -> ]It's much harder to pull off when the picks you can offer are likely to be late in the 1st round.
Lakers dumped Westbrook and received three starter level players for just one pick, which is even top4 protected. This is a kind of move I would expect a competent front office to do.