(01-01-2023, 03:48 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I would argue Dinwiddie is a perfect 6th man on this team, he just isn't playing that role currently. The guys that make the most sense as salary matching fodder for a big trade in the near future are Timmy and Bullock. I have probably posted this a ton of times, but if they can pull off that trade next offseason, you are looking at:
starters: Wood/Dorian/2 way wing/Green/Luka
Bench: Powell/Maxi/Hardy/Frank/Din
Depending on how good that wing is, that team could be a contender. Maybe the following season you can package one of the older players with Bertans expiring and possibly a pick (if you have any left) to upgrade that position. From there you slowly replace the older players with younger blood, keeping the continuity while getting younger and riding the best player in the league for a long contention window.
I don’t disagree with this line of thinking and if I were to keep one of Hardaway/Bullock/Dinwiddie then it would most likely be Dinwiddie but one thing I’d point out is that a Dinwiddie/Bullock package paired with a bunch of picks this offseason may end up making more sense for the receiving team because Dinwiddie and Bullock will both be expiring. The situation you’re painting would require either extending Dinwiddie, trading him during the season next year or losing him for nothing. I just don’t see us extending him (I may be wrong) so in my head our offseason package will end up being Dinwiddie/Bullock (if they are still here) and 2+ picks so they don’t have to worry about Dinwiddies next contract.
(01-01-2023, 02:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Ah, I see.
Well, basketball is and will always be a sport where size and length matters. You basically want your great basketball players to be longer and more physical than the opponent's great basketball players. I think we'd all agree about that.
The disagreements come up, I believe, when we can't all agree on the qualifies for the "great" that I just typed before "basketball players." I believe that some only see the size ("only" might be a bit strong, but I don't mean it literally, I'm just not that great of a writer) and often miss the impact of the requisite skills that make that size advantageous in the first place. In other words, give me someone with the right skills for a position over someone with the right size for that position if I have to choose and can't have both.
Hence my love affair for DFS. He has ideal size for the 3, but his skills seem to be more ideal for the 4. Those who are irked by undersized players at any position and seem to zero in on that (again, at any position) as a major roster-building error that must be fixed for the team to succeed have always had a problem with him here, only giving him praise reluctantly. Those who don't have that hangup to an extreme degree have always seemed more likely to accept him.
But, even his biggest supporters (I might be his biggest) would admit that he's far from a perfect player. He is very limited, offensively, and is basically the ideal "glue guy" or "connector" to use a few terms we throw around regularly.
Is my goal to upgrade DFS? No. But, a common complaint from those here who fall all over the opinion spectrum is about size up front.
Some people think that size should come from the center position, particularly. I, myself, think that the way the game is changing, that extra couple of inches from one player is likely to come at the detriment to the kind of movement and fluidity you need from all 5 players in order to play competitive basketball at the highest level. So, to me, you want to increase your team size, not your center size. This explanation is lacking a bit of nuance, but it's basically how I feel.
When I look at the roster, I see Wood as not only a center, but the type of center who I believe is the prototypical dream. What I don't see is a prototypical 4. DFS is good, and far from an area that needs to be upgraded, in a vacuum, but, it's just factual that the roster doesn't have a 6'9", 6'10" guy with the fluidity needed to play forward on a big-minute basis. Some view Kleber as that player, and to be fair, he's pretty close, but I have thought for several seasons now that he's even better as a 5, and his ideal role in this league is probably as as bench "connector" who can backfill both positions, giving you flexible options to attack/defend different ways.
The Kawhi Leonard, LeBron, Jerami Grant, Aaron Gordon, Siakim, Obi Toppin, Kuzma, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, etc, etc, etc, guy just isn't here, imo. Talking about size/movement packages, not anything specific about skills (yet).
There are a TON of different ways to add one of those. If, somehow, you're able to get LeBron, all of a sudden I'm not so protective of DFS's role so much, know what I mean? If the player you get is Rui, then I think he's another tool to throw into the mix but probably plays behind DFS at the 4 to start out.
So it's not about looking at DFS and wanting to upgrade him - it's just a part of the equation that I, personally, don't think they have on the roster yet. What I'm saying is that more forward options seem to me that they'd be infinitely more likely to come in handy than another 3rd center. THOSE are the names we throw around that seem pointless to me, but the player I'm envisioning would likely assuage SOME of the valid concerns that people who are convinced that big dinosaur is what's needed bring up. Does that make sense? I hope so. Again, I'm not always articulate enough to get my thinking across accurately.
The problem is if you're adding that 4, depending on how good they are right away, you run the risk of displacing DFS to the 3...to the bench...whatever. Maybe it works GREAT with him moving to the 3, but with the specific type of player Luka seems to need to guard, I'm not so sure such a move wouldn't bump DFS down TWO positions, defensively, which is real foot speed risk, imho. Maybe he becomes the perfect bench forward (PERFECT) but then we'd need to reconcile ourselves with a re-examination of his extension. I'd still be fine with it, I THINK, but it would be a little tougher to justify, especially if it cause roster building problems moving forward from that point.
I could get in the weeds typing words about this all day (that like three people will actually read) but the bottom line is that upgrading DFS isn't really the motivation for me here, just an indirect consequence, potentially.
You bring up Hardaway, so let me clarify my feelings there. I do defend him, but only in the context of him being here and being used in a way where he can contribute positively. I assume upgrading him is something they're looking at, and I hope they can do it. What I don't agree with is the idea that simply benching him in favor of players who are already here would in any way represent positive change. I think that's FAAAAAAR from true. But I'm in no way trying to suggest that they should make decisions with their front court that protect Hardaway's role, somehow.
To me, this conversation has nothing to do with Hardaway whatsoever, as his role wouldn't change based on this nebulous incoming player and/or DFS. I think what you're saying is "why isn't that what we're talking about instead" and I can see where you're coming from with that, but...again, there currently isn't a player like what I'm describing on the roster to be upgraded, so that seems more glaring (to me) and honestly, much more realistic. Players who can upgrade the role they are asking Hardaway to play are really hard to get, imo. Conley is a name that we've discussed today who might do the trick. I'd be all over that Vanderbilt/Conley package.
Is this coming anywhere near addressing your point? I hope so, but not sure.
This may be one of your best posts ever.
IF, repeating IF the coach/front office come around to seeing Wood like you do, then you next figure out what is missing in the equation beyond Wood/Luka. I’m not convinced we are there yet and I’m not convinced Wood is an above average defender at the five. But, he really is a great fit offensively.
The focus of where you go next has to be at the defensive end. I like the idea that Maxi is a very good 5/4 off the bench and I see DFS as much the same in terms of being a 4/3 if we had someone good enough to move him to that spot. What a luxury. Somewhere there is room for a big who can come in and take some fouls against the few remaining beast centers. But, that person doesn’t have to start.
I agree that Vanderbilt fits the type we are describing. He needs to be able to guard a lot of those guys on the list you provided with length and mobility while also helping with the boards and protecting the paint when Wood is dragged into a PnR and gets beat. It would be nice if this player could do more with the ball than DFS. It doesn’t have to be Vanderbilt, but that is the type I’m envisioning and I agree we don’t have it yet (Vandy does set good picks and is hitting corner 3’s, but he has also had several big assist games that Dorian has never really dreamed of having).
I also think he would make the starting lineup better. You can start games with Wood/Vand/THJ/SD/Luka, but any of Maxi/DFS/Green could sub in and finish a game as needed. I mean, that’s essentially 8 starters and if Conley came in the deal, you now have recreated someone to play the role Dinwiddie played last season. This is probably a better team than the one that went to the WCF’s last season. Ultimately, it comes down to whether we can fill in gaps and play Luka and 8 guys who are 3rd-5th starters or whether we need to Marshall resources to get a true #2. I personally think Luka can be #1 and #2 if the others are good enough. So, if the right deal comes along and we can turn Reggie and someone into a couple of useful guys that fit the level of Vandy/Conley, I give up a pick and give Luka a fighting chance…especially if at least one of those guys is younger.
(01-01-2023, 04:46 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I’m not convinced we are there yet and I’m not convinced Wood is an above average defender at the five.
What is it that you're looking for and not seeing? No snark, I'm really curious.
I think he's improving at rotating quickly, identifying what the opposing actions are trying to achieve ahead of time (these are the important things, from my POV) and tbh, his ability to stand his ground in the paint and defend the rim is already better than what I expected when I started this crusade.
I think he falls short of Powell and Kleber significantly in the area of "well, I know Luka's not going to shut off the base line, so I need to be prepared to cover for him" but that, to me, is something regarding Luka, specifically (when he's the second biggest on the floor) and will improve with time they spend together. Not really what I'd call a deficiency in the principles of general help D.
(01-01-2023, 04:46 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]So, if the right deal comes along and we can turn Reggie and someone into a couple of useful guys that fit the level of Vandy/Conley, I give up a pick and give Luka a fighting chance…especially if at least one of those guys is younger.
This is where I'm still out on this. I'm all for finding more playable guys on the wings but if we are giving up a pick then it limits are ability to trade multiple picks to bring in someone who can help on BOTH sides of the court. It's simply the market rate now and we're right on the cusp of being able to put together a very competitive package so I just don't want to ruin that ability.
I agree that we're going to have to rethink the roster a little bit to build a strong defense with Wood as a low man (though I don't think I feel as strongly as you do about this, especially with DFS and Maxi already on this roster to pair him with) but the main focus should always be getting Luka in a place where he doesn't have to do EVERYTHING. Adding a defensive specialist would not change anything around Luka's current usage and that's what I feel should be top priority. I do feel that if you wait until this offseason that you will be able to find someone who can address that AND be someone who helps round out our wing/frontcourt defense around Wood.
We have plenty of time still to sort out the roster around Luka, I would be pretty devastated if we move a pick or Green or Hardy this deadline in a half measure sort of trade to try to make something out of this season.
(01-01-2023, 05:22 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I agree that we're going to have to rethink the roster a little bit to build a strong defense with Wood as a low man (though I don't think I feel as strongly as you do about this, especially with DFS and Maxi already on this roster to pair him with) but the main focus should always be getting Luka in a place where he doesn't have to do EVERYTHING. Adding a defensive specialist would not change anything around Luka's current usage and that's what I feel should be top priority. I do feel that if you wait until this offseason that you will be able to find someone who can address that AND be someone who helps round out our wing/frontcourt defense around Wood.
Don't want to speak for Dan, but I think "defensive specialist" might be selling Vanderbilt a bit short.
I'd call him a physically gifted, athletic difference maker who is showing an increasing ability to positively impact winning on the offensive end. He might be a good enough shooter, in time, or he might not, but he can already handle the ball pretty well for his size (not like Luka or Dinwiddie, but better than Wood or Hardaway, probably). I think you might be thinking of him as a "bigger DFS" and that isn't quite accurate, I don't think. You could make an argument that he's more two-way than DFS right now, for example, although I think he's not nearly as polished on either end, probably. But, he can handle the ball, which is a step in the right direction.
One thing that I think gets really glossed over still when we talk about trading picks is the Luka contract timeline.
Trading our 2027 pick this season means you HAVE to have heavy protections on that pick much like the second pick in the KP trade because Luka is not under contract by the time you have to send that pick off so making it unprotected would be crazy but it also would then put us in the same boat we're already in with the protections on the KP pick making things difficult this season to navigate the trade market.
You wait til this offseason and then you can move two unprotected picks that are happening while Luka is still under contract with the hope that if Luka looks like he's going to leave at the end of the deal you move him for a ton of picks but if you build a roster around him that he wants to stay in Dallas and contend here you can now repeat the process of moving future picks right away to continue to bolster the roster for his next extension.
(01-01-2023, 05:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Don't want to speak for Dan, but I think "defensive specialist" might be selling Vanderbilt a bit short.
I'd call him a physically gifted, athletic difference maker who is showing an increasing ability to positively impact winning on the offensive end. He might be a good enough shooter, in time, or he might not, but he can already handle the ball pretty well for his size (not like Luka or Dinwiddie, but better than Wood or Hardaway, probably). I think you might be thinking of him as a "bigger DFS" and that isn't quite accurate, I don't think.
Ya this is definitely where we diverge and I may turn out to be wrong and he develops an offensive game but to me he just hasn't shown enough on that end to start to mortgage the future on him.
In today's NBA if your wings can't shoot then your team offense is going to have a navigate a much smaller court and they become nearly unplayable in the playoffs so I just don't want them on this roster. Like I said, I may be wrong and he develops a shot but there really aren't signs of life there from what I've watched of him.
Hasn't then been some talk, the Mavs may have cap room in a few years? If so, I wonder if they are more likely to throw two unprotected future firsts for a win now move. So, who is that win now move? It won't happen this year. Probably, not this offseason either. But what happens a year from now the Lakers are still a mess??? If Lebron is still playing at a high level, wouldn't he be ideal? It is going to take a lot...if he is still playing at a high level. Two unprotected firsts plus salary. And Lebron would need to be forceful behind the scenes where he wants to go.
But how does this team look with Lebron on it and with most of their depth players remaining. It would be a two year deal max and then you hope to find a free agent after.
(01-01-2023, 05:34 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]In today's NBA if your wings can't shoot then your team offense is going to have a navigate a much smaller court and they become nearly unplayable in the playoffs so I just don't want them on this roster.
Well, does it move the needle any to know that I fully agree with the above and would want Vanderbilt anyway?
(01-01-2023, 05:36 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Probably, not this offseason either.
Curious what makes you think this
RE: Vanderbilt
If the Mavs are going to build a contender around Luka then they are going to have to accurately evaluate and project players into the future. Once a player has proven to be something, then it is too late for the Mavs and their lack of assets. They need to find the guys who haven't fully blossomed and go get them while they are still "affordable." I don't know if Vanderbilt is that guy, but I think he could be.
(01-01-2023, 05:45 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]RE: Vanderbilt
If the Mavs are going to build a contender around Luka then they are going to have to accurately evaluate and project players into the future. Once a player has proven to be something, then it is too late for the Mavs and their lack of assets. They need to find the guys who haven't fully blossomed and go get them while they are still "affordable." I don't know if Vanderbilt is that guy, but I think he could be.
Even if it ends up not being the
only way, hitting on a couple of these will sure make the rest of the job easier!
In a way, that's kind of what has (potentially) happened with Wood, and look what a little success there has done for morale around here!
(01-01-2023, 05:42 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Well, does it move the needle any to know that I fully agree with the above and would want Vanderbilt anyway?
haha I wish I could get on board but I just can't.
I've watched a handful of the Jazz games and when Vanderbilt is on the floor he's normally out there with either Lauri or Olynyk and is being used in the dunker's spot. His shot is U-G-L-Y which is why he's only shooting threes once a game. He may turn into more of a two way guy but as of right now, NBA coaches still seem to use him as a defensive specialist.
If he was on the roster today, there would be zero lineup combos that would include him and Powell. You just create such a tough situation for yourself when you have wings like that.
(01-01-2023, 05:47 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]If he was on the roster today, there would be zero lineup combos that would include him and Powell.
I think this is a fair point to bring up.
(01-01-2023, 05:46 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]In a way, that's kind of what has (potentially) happened with Wood,
It is why I LOVED the Wood trade from the get go. It was a great price and gamble on a player that had a ton of talent and was just entering his prime and for whatever reasons was not being highly desired by other teams.
The Mavs need to keep looking for those kind of deals. And the most important part: the players need to be 27 years old or YOUNGER.
(01-01-2023, 05:45 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]RE: Vanderbilt
If the Mavs are going to build a contender around Luka then they are going to have to accurately evaluate and project players into the future. Once a player has proven to be something, then it is too late for the Mavs and their lack of assets. They need to find the guys who haven't fully blossomed and go get them while they are still "affordable." I don't know if Vanderbilt is that guy, but I think he could be.
I don't disagree with this at all and I hope they're taking this same mentality with Josh Green because he absolutely looks like a guy who is a year or two away from being a real problem for opposing teams. I just take one look at Vanderbilt's shooting form though and immediately think there's no way you can fit him into an offense with modern day spacing. Could eat crow down the road but we'll see.
I also think the lack of assets narrative won't be as true once the Knicks pick conveys and we'll be able to go get someone who is still developing but looking a little more like a "sure thing" compared to Vanderbilt.
(01-01-2023, 05:43 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Curious what makes you think this
They just have a history of things falling in their laps. This offseason, they won't have max money, but they will have 25-30 Million in cap space, I believe. Plus, they will have a Pelicans first they can trade after the draft (like Dallas did for Wood). Even if they don't get an all star level caliber player, they have a chance to have a much more balanced team. I think winning a title is past for them, but I could see them talking themselves into being on the right track this offseason.
(01-01-2023, 02:34 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I feel that DFS and Maxi were extended to mirror Lukas contract for a reason so I don’t see them going anywhere anytime soon.
I would expect guys like Green and Hardy to be high level contributors in that time frame but I don’t necessarily think that DFS and Maxis defense will fall off a cliff or anything which is their current role anyway. I might just be confused by the term high level contributor and what that means. Like I think that they can still be part of the rotation but probably not at the same minute levels if that helps?
I have no problem with Wood at 31, being on the downside of your career does not mean you are a bad basketball player. We’re basically just talking about keeping Wood through his prime and figuring out the next steps after that.
So, you didn’t say to keep them as high level contributors, that’s my bad for reading too much into what you said. After the clarification, I think DFS at that point should be fine in a legacy type role, it all depends on how much we are leaning on him at that point (and what we are paying him).
Honestly, I think by the end of Maxi’s contract we will be seeing the reason I was so against the extension. He already looks to be out for the rest of the season and playoffs (most importantly). That doesn’t bode well. As injuries stack up (which he seems to have a lot of) he’ll slow down.
We’re talking about the shift in speed and athleticism paired with skill in the NBA. I’m not sure after 4 more years that what Maxi especially and maybe even DFS will be able to help as the NBA goes further down that route. Wood should be right on the edge of high level play at 31 unless he takes some of what LeBron has been using. At that point it’s also a matter of how much he is paid and how much we are leaning on him.
I don’t fully know the right thing to do with our aging team, mostly because I don’t think they have much value around the league. I replied to your comment, because I thought it was weird to think we should be relying heavily on DFS and Maxi especially, but Wood as well, in 4 years enough to name them in a post about the future.
(01-01-2023, 06:05 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]They just have a history of things falling in their laps. This offseason, they won't have max money, but they will have 25-30 Million in cap space, I believe. Plus, they will have a Pelicans first they can trade after the draft (like Dallas did for Wood). Even if they don't get an all star level caliber player, they have a chance to have a much more balanced team. I think winning a title is past for them, but I could see them talking themselves into being on the right track this offseason.
Oh I’m an idiot and mistook which parts were about the mavs and which were about the lakers. Makes way more sense
(01-01-2023, 06:41 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]So, you didn’t say to keep them as high level contributors, that’s my bad for reading too much into what you said. After the clarification, I think DFS at that point should be fine in a legacy type role, it all depends on how much we are leaning on him at that point (and what we are paying him).
Honestly, I think by the end of Maxi’s contract we will be seeing the reason I was so against the extension. He already looks to be out for the rest of the season and playoffs (most importantly). That doesn’t bode well. As injuries stack up (which he seems to have a lot of) he’ll slow down.
We’re talking about the shift in speed and athleticism paired with skill in the NBA. I’m not sure after 4 more years that what Maxi especially and maybe even DFS will be able to help as the NBA goes further down that route. Wood should be right on the edge of high level play at 31 unless he takes some of what LeBron has been using. At that point it’s also a matter of how much he is paid and how much we are leaning on him.
I don’t fully know the right thing to do with our aging team, mostly because I don’t think they have much value around the league. I replied to your comment, because I thought it was weird to think we should be relying heavily on DFS and Maxi especially, but Wood as well, in 4 years enough to name them in a post about the future.
Ya I probably could have written that post better because I think we’re on the same page. I also am starting to share the same concerns about Maxi too.
I didn’t mean to make it sounds like the roster should be around for 4 years, it’s really more just a timeframe that lives in my head because of Lukas contract. Really my main point is it feels like the immediate roster upgrades should be improving the Hardaway/Bullock/Dinwiddie trio because the Maxi/DFS/Wood trio seems quite useful presently (when healthy). In time you should always been looking for upgrades and there’s real chances it may happen before DFS and Maxis contracts are up (although I do believe that Wood could absolutely be a contributor at this level we’re seeing through the age of 31).