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Josh is unplayable right now.

No one wanted Saddiq or Desmond more than me. That being said, Josh “just” needs to improve his catch and shoot 3 and he will be a great cheap role player.

(04-19-2022, 11:42 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]No one wanted Saddiq or Desmond more than me. That being said, Josh “just” needs to improve his catch and shoot 3 and he will be a great cheap role player.

Re-watch the shot he made last night.  You can hear the crowd and his teammates begging him to pull the trigger.  He's just not ready right now.

(04-19-2022, 08:09 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]1) I think DB is much better on D than reputation.

Much, MUCH better.

Futlility is Josh dribbling around in the paint with Gobert just standing there watching him.

(04-19-2022, 11:52 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Much, MUCH better.

(04-19-2022, 11:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Since the trade and All-Star break here are the numbers for DP (that is when it seemed like was fully healthy and recovered and back to his full athletic self):



As you can see, DP suffered from playing almost all his minutes with Luka (who was ATROCIOUS defensively after the trade). 

Without Luka, DP had some of the best numbers on the team and one of the better defensive ratings.

I mean, Luka was 118 after the all star break and Powell was 116.  Luka's defensive rating was actually a little better overall than with Powell on the court.  Maybe Powell was part of the problem?  We went from a full season of sample, to now narrowing it down to 146 minutes to make our point (and its still not as good as Maxi who probably also "suffered" some minutes with Luka).  Seems like data mining to me.

Not sure what the point of going through this exercise when we have advanced stats that do a way better job than you or I could do synthesizing this information.  I think it was you who started an "impact" thread and posted the advanced stats.  If I recall, they all agreed that Maxi was basically our best defender and Powell was middle of the pack.

(04-19-2022, 12:10 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]If I recall, they all agreed that Maxi was basically our best defender and Powell was middle of the pack.

When you look at the season as a whole I absolutely agree. The whole body of work of the season. 

But I just think the games leading up to the playoffs and in the two playoff games Maxi has not been the better defender (or not enough better to warrant the playing time). A lot of that is my eye test speaking. 

At the end of the day, this is an opinion of mine from watching the games. I have some stats that I think validate that. You can disagree. I just think DP is the best big option right now. The coaches obviously don't. We will see how that unfolds in this series.

(04-19-2022, 12:19 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]When you look at the season as a whole I absolutely agree. The whole body of work of the season. 

But I just think the games leading up to the playoffs and in the two playoff games Maxi has not been the better defender (or not enough better to warrant the playing time). A lot of that is my eye test speaking. 

At the end of the day, this is an opinion of mine from watching the games. I have some stats that I think validate that. You can disagree. I just think DP is the best big option right now. The coaches obviously don't. We will see how that unfolds in this series.

Maxi had two great on ball possessions in the first half versus Clarkson and Mitchell.  I'm not sure Powell can bring that to the table.  That's not a knock on Powell, his play of late has been a revelation.  It's all for not though as you need both dudes playing at a high level.  Things get scary when the rotation goes beyond them.

(04-18-2022, 10:35 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]It will be more impressive if they win the series. That's all that matters at this point. If they lose it, nobody will remember tonight's game.

Brunson's agent will certainly remember. 

(04-19-2022, 12:19 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]When you look at the season as a whole I absolutely agree. The whole body of work of the season. 

But I just think the games leading up to the playoffs and in the two playoff games Maxi has not been the better defender (or not enough better to warrant the playing time). A lot of that is my eye test speaking. 

At the end of the day, this is an opinion of mine from watching the games. I have some stats that I think validate that. You can disagree. I just think DP is the best big option right now. The coaches obviously don't. We will see how that unfolds in this series.

Understood.  The eye test is the eye test and we can agree to disagree on that and move on.

My primary issue is the way that you are using stats to support your narrative.  Its a shame there is not a way to dice up the best advanced stats (EPM and Lebron) by time chunks.  That is probably due to how noisy small sample data is (neither even showed current season info until a couple of months into the season).  I have been following them regularly for most of this season though, and if anything Powell's defensive ratings have gone down since the trade (his offense has gone up).  Maxi has been the opposite.  His defense has steadily risen since being primarily a center, and his offense plummeted this last month.

(04-19-2022, 11:45 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Re-watch the shot he made last night.  You can hear the crowd and his teammates are begging him to pull the trigger.  He's just not ready right now.

Precisely

(04-19-2022, 12:09 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]

Do you disagree that much? 

His reputation coming in was EXTREMELY low. His tools aren't great (although his feet aren't bad, actually) and he seems a little foul prone, but his defensive IQ has seemed better than average to me, so far. I think he's more ready to play playoff defense than Chriss, for example, and he's 3 levels better than Boban.

(04-19-2022, 12:30 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Its a shame there is not a way to dice up the best advanced stats (EPM and Lebron) by time chunks.

Totally off topic here, but I've never gotten myself to the place where I could like baked plus minus stats very much. I've read the papers put out by the creators of many of the metrics and just don't come away convinced by the math or by the results. 

So far, imo, the search for the Grand Theory of Basketball has produced iffy results. Which makes sense to me considering that we're having a really hard time marrying big physics and little physics even though we've been trying for centuries. 

I'd love to hear an expert in probability and statistics weigh in on whether these regression and other exercises have produced anything valuable. 

@"Hogmelon", I can't remember, did you study math, or are you mostly trained via gambling?

(04-19-2022, 12:51 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Do you disagree that much? 

His reputation coming in was EXTREMELY low. His tools aren't great (although his feet aren't bad, actually) and he seems a little foul prone, but his defensive IQ has seemed better than average to me, so far. I think he's more ready to play playoff defense than Chriss, for example, and he's 3 levels better than Boban.

He's like a 12 year old Rottweiler at a dog park, the heart and mind are there but the body betrayed his days of play long ago.  He's a turnstile for anyone that can dribble and his size isn't felt in the least.

(04-19-2022, 12:56 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]He's like a 12 year old Rottweiler at a dog park, the heart and mind are there but the body betrayed his days of play long ago.  He's a turnstile for anyone that can dribble and his size isn't felt in the least.

Man, I'm just not sure I agree. I have seen him play pretty sound positional defense during his time here. I'm definitely not trying to make a case for him being a "good" defender, but Kamm's statement was "compared to his reputation" and there were multiple people saying "unplayable." I have not found that to be the case at all. I suppose it's all a matter of relativity.

(04-19-2022, 12:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Man, I'm just not sure I agree. I have seen him play pretty sound positional defense during his time here. I'm definitely not trying to make a case for him being a "good" defender, but Kamm's statement was "compared to his reputation" and there were multiple people saying "unplayable." I have not found that to be the case at all. I suppose it's all a matter of relativity.

I'd say the Mavs are lucky to have gotten away with his minutes with a hefty pinch of Utah being stupid for not exploiting the matchup.  The reason I call him "unplayable", and I truly believe that to be the case, is more a reflection on the coaching staff and less a reflection on DB.  I like a lot of what I see from DB on the court it just confounds me that the coaching staff is failing him especially considering the amount of threes we are getting up.

And yeah, a lot of it is an eye test.  Watch Josh play defense on Clarkson last night.  Positionally, he seems sound.  You'd almost want to call it good defense.  But he doesn't bother Clarkson in the least.

(04-18-2022, 09:33 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Your infatuation with small sample +/- is mind boggling.

(04-19-2022, 12:51 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Totally off topic here, but I've never gotten myself to the place where I could like baked plus minus stats very much. I've read the papers put out by the creators of many of the metrics and just don't come away convinced by the math or by the results. 

So far, imo, the search for the Grand Theory of Basketball has produced iffy results. Which makes sense to me considering that we're having a really hard time marrying big physics and little physics even though we've been trying for centuries. 

I'd love to hear an expert in probability and statistics weigh in on whether these regression and other exercises have produced anything valuable. 

@"Hogmelon", I can't remember, did you study math, or are you mostly trained via gambling?

Still the same answer as last June ...

(06-22-2021, 12:37 AM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]B.S. in electrical engineering from Texas A&M; M.S.E.E. from MIT (specializing in optimal control theory, which is all math)

Worked for Bell Labs, then General Dynamics (still in control theory, still all math).

Developed optimal card-counting strategies for blackjack, which proved extremely successful (both individually and as part of a team) until I was barred by every casino that mattered.

Then ...

Law school in Austin (t.u.), followed by a litigation practice that morphed into a mediation practice.

Then ...

Poker.  Full-time until recently.

Now ...

Just playing with my grandkids and chillin' ....

Also, mixed in with all of the above, a shitload of adventures in the wonderful worlds of art and music.

Fifteenth, I have plenty of opinions about all the math-related posts on this message board (and I'm a hardcore grammar Nazi too, but that's another story), but I mostly try to keep my mouth [keyboard] shut, because it seems like I rub the majority of the people here the wrong way.

Nevertheless ...

I will go out on a limb one more time by stating this:

1.  Kammrath, I love ya, man, but ...

2.  I agree sooooooooooooooooooooo much  with mvossman's "mind boggling" statement (see above).

(04-19-2022, 12:51 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Do you disagree that much? 

His reputation coming in was EXTREMELY low. His tools aren't great (although his feet aren't bad, actually) and he seems a little foul prone, but his defensive IQ has seemed better than average to me, so far. I think he's more ready to play playoff defense than Chriss, for example, and he's 3 levels better than Boban.

I've actually found his defense to be more reliable than his shooting most nights.  Not reliable in the sense that "he's going to go out there and be our best defender" but in the sense that he's going to do the best job that he can without fouling or making mental mistakes.

He's WAY more athletic than I expected and uses his size really well without fouling.  He'll get burned from time to time and the narrative will continue but he certainly isn't the liability I expected he would be.

Still not a great contract for the production we're getting but if we don't unload him this offseason then perhaps a full year under Kidd and co can help him work his way into a more solidified playoff rotation spot.

(04-19-2022, 01:37 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I've actually found his defense to be more reliable than his shooting most nights.  Not reliable in the sense that "he's going to go out there and be our best defender" but in the sense that he's going to do the best job that he can without fouling or making mental mistakes.

He's WAY more athletic than I expected and uses his size really well without fouling.  He'll get burned from time to time and the narrative will continue but he certainly isn't the liability I expected he would be.

Still not a great contract for the production we're getting but if we don't unload him this offseason then perhaps a full year under Kidd and co can help him work his way into a more solidified playoff rotation spot.

This is pretty much exactly what I've thought so far.