(04-19-2022, 12:51 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Totally off topic here, but I've never gotten myself to the place where I could like baked plus minus stats very much. I've read the papers put out by the creators of many of the metrics and just don't come away convinced by the math or by the results.
So far, imo, the search for the Grand Theory of Basketball has produced iffy results. Which makes sense to me considering that we're having a really hard time marrying big physics and little physics even though we've been trying for centuries.
I'd love to hear an expert in probability and statistics weigh in on whether these regression and other exercises have produced anything valuable.
@"Hogmelon", I can't remember, did you study math, or are you mostly trained via gambling?
So I don't know if this is totally answering your question, and I think I posted this in the past, but here is a really good article going over the various stats and a survey of what basketball folks think of them.
EPM is the highest rated one (DARKO is something different) and article includes a link to really well done study comparing the effectiveness of the stats. When Kam posted some of these stats in a thread he started a couple of days ago, the general consensus was that EPM was the one that met the eye test. I would argue it is even more useful when looking over a larger sample (multiple years). If there is one stat that you could semi rely on for a catch all, it would probably be EPM.
What is the best advanced statistic for basketball? NBA executives weigh in | HoopsHype
(04-19-2022, 11:36 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]The first playoff series for a young player often isn't pretty. That's nothing unusual, don't you think?
On waiting for potential, I think even the best, stacked, vet teams should always be developing young players. Getting into such a hurry where you avoid picks and young players all together will come back and bit a team, imo.
This is all true, but it's rather general in nature.
Dallas - at this moment in time - doesn't really need Green. We need a rebounding center, maybe another veteran wing, possibly a playmaker off the bench. We need someone really useful in the playoffs. Green isn't that guy. Dallas needs a veteran and preferably one with playoff experience.
Green is some of Dallas's only trade bait. I think that's where he will be most useful. If he plays pretty much the same way next season, then his value goes down... and there's no reason I can see that we should expect him to become an offensive threat in 2023.
(04-19-2022, 01:19 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]Still the same answer as last June ...
Fifteenth, I have plenty of opinions about all the math-related posts on this message board (and I'm a hardcore grammar Nazi too, but that's another story), but I mostly try to keep my mouth [keyboard] shut, because it seems like I rub the majority of the people here the wrong way.
Nevertheless ...
I will go out on a limb one more time by stating this:
1. Kammrath, I love ya, man, but ...
2. I agree sooooooooooooooooooooo much with mvossman's "mind boggling" statement (see above).
Thanks HM! I remembered that I had asked you about your professional background after enjoying your math posts. I'm a math guy myself, just not a probability and statistics guy.
Oh, and I think it's best not to think too much about what the forum things.
I'd have to ditch lots of my posts if I was concerned about that.
So, you're not in to raw +/-. That's not surprising.
But what do you think about stats like Lebron, which try to bake the noise out of +/-? Any thoughts on that?
I personally like lineup data over extended periods of time. Not that I think I'm qualified to do much with it, but it's fun to look at, try to think through it...come up with some kind of amature analysis.
(04-19-2022, 01:59 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So I don't know if this is totally answering your question, and I think I posted this in the past, but here is a really good article going over the various stats and a survey of what basketball folks think of them.
EPM is the highest rated one (DARKO is something different) and article includes a link to really well done study comparing the effectiveness of the stats. When Kam posted some of these stats in a thread he started a couple of days ago, the general consensus was that EPM was the one that met the eye test. I would argue it is even more useful when looking over a larger sample (multiple years). If there is one stat that you could semi rely on for a catch all, it would probably be EPM.
What is the best advanced statistic for basketball? NBA executives weigh in | HoopsHype
Thanks @"mvossman", I'll give that a read at some point.
(04-19-2022, 06:55 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Did anyone realize the rebounding differential in the second half was only -4 (-3 in the third and -1 in the fourth). They were outrebounded 28-13 in the first half, but really worked in the second half to turn that around.
Isn’t this because the Mavs didn’t miss any shots in the second half?
(04-19-2022, 11:36 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]The first playoff series for a young player often isn't pretty. That's nothing unusual, don't you think?
On waiting for potential, I think even the best, stacked, vet teams should always be developing young players. Getting into such a hurry where you avoid picks and young players all together will come back and bit a team, imo.
Like this take. If I recall correctly, young Bruce Bowen wasn’t very impressive. I see similarities. Need the long ball to come. But it takes time. See Finney-Smith, Dorian.
(04-19-2022, 03:03 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]Like this take. If I recall correctly, young Bruce Bowen wasn’t very impressive. I see similarities. Need the long ball to come. But it takes time. See Finney-Smith, Dorian.
I mean. Most non-Luka types have to suffer in the playoffs before they become productive in the playoffs
(04-19-2022, 02:35 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]So, you're not in to raw +/-. That's not surprising.
But what do you think about stats like Lebron, which try to bake the noise out of +/-? Any thoughts on that?
I personally like lineup data over extended periods of time. Not that I think I'm qualified to do much with it, but it's fun to look at, try to think through it...come up with some kind of amature analysis.
I'm not necessarily opposed to any particular statistics (e.g.,
+/- stats), but there are so many statistical "abuses" that drive me crazy, and dogmatic conclusions drawn on the basis of ridiculously small sample sizes are near the top of my shit list (along with various logical fallacies, such as correlation vs. causation).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio..._causation
If you are interested, fifteenth, I will revisit the topic of basketball statistics some other time. Right now I'm on my way out the door!
(04-19-2022, 03:12 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not necessarily opposed to any particular statistics (e.g., +/- stats), but there are so many statistical "abuses" that drive me crazy, and dogmatic conclusions drawn on the basis of ridiculously small sample sizes are near the top of my shit list (along with various logical fallacies, such as correlation vs. causation).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio..._causation
If you are interested, fifteenth, I will revisit the topic of basketball statistics some other time. Right now I'm on my way out the door!
Thanks HM. Have a great day out in the real world, my friend.
(04-19-2022, 03:03 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]Like this take. If I recall correctly, young Bruce Bowen wasnât very impressive. I see similarities. Need the long ball to come. But it takes time. See Finney-Smith, Dorian
This is exactly the same way everyone felt about Green a month ago. This makes little sense for Dallas in my opinion. Green is not DFS or Bowen. He's not a lockdown defender, an offensive threat, a rebounder, or a playmaker. He's active and he works hard. He may get marginally better, but he doesn't really make substantial difference on this team.
Dallas is a low playoff team with a limited window to improve. Dallas needs a veteran or at the very least a center like Mitchell who can make the roster better. Dallas will need to trade this summer. If he's useful in a trade for a veteran, you don't balk. He's the guy you sweeten the deal with, not the other way around.
(04-19-2022, 04:07 PM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]Green is not DFS or Bowen. He's not a lockdown defender, an offensive threat, a rebounder, or a playmaker. He's active and he works hard. He may get marginally better, but he doesn't really make substantial difference on this team.
Josh is a second year player. Many, probably most NBA players, get WAY more than marginally better when they're a second year player. Most players have to develop.
(04-19-2022, 04:07 PM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]Dallas is a low playoff team with a limited window to improve.
A 50 win team that was fighting for the 3rd seed up until the last game is a "low" playoff team? What limits their window to improve? I don't think the window ever really closes. You just gotta have a good front office. Nico and Kidd did good at the trade deadline. Let's see if they can do something this summer.
(04-19-2022, 04:07 PM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]If he's useful in a trade for a veteran, you don't balk.
If Green can help bring back "better than Green", then sure. But the player you describe above sure wouldn't bring back much.
(04-19-2022, 04:21 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]If Green can help bring back "better than Green", then sure. But the player you describe above sure wouldn't bring back much.
Sadly, "better than Green" is almost anyone at this point. His shown some flashes of potential this season (praise be to Jason Garrett for getting something out of him) but the playoffs have exposed him as someone who is terrified. At this point I'd happily include him to get off of the contracts of Brown and/or Burke for the roster space.
That's not to say that he can't become something useful in the NBA in the future, but the Mavs aren't in the position to wait that long. My advice to him in the offseason would be to do nothing but shoot and then watch how Utah "defended" you every night before you go to bed. Hopefully that pisses him off. It should.
(04-19-2022, 04:31 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly, "better than Green" is almost anyone at this point...but the playoffs have exposed him as someone who is terrified.
Dude. You've been doing this for long enough to know that the way a second year player plays in his first ever playoffs doesn't necessarily represent what he will be.
(04-19-2022, 04:34 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ] Dude. You've been doing this for long enough to know that the way a second year player plays in his first ever playoffs doesn't necessarily represent what he will be.
Playing substandard is one thing. Look at Jalen. He's had rough stretches in the playoffs until last night but I'd never call him scared. Josh has some the nerves you'd expect of someone in their first high school game. Utah is literally not guarding him.
(04-19-2022, 04:31 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly, "better than Green" is almost anyone at this point. His shown some flashes of potential this season (praise be to Jason Garrett for getting something out of him) but the playoffs have exposed him as someone who is terrified. At this point I'd happily include him to get off of the contracts of Brown and/or Burke for the roster space.
What a take. If you miss shots in a playoff game, you are terrified. Roster space is what a promising FRP in his "second" year is worth? I'd hate to be so pessimistic...
(04-19-2022, 04:40 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]What a take. If you miss shots in a playoff game, you are terrified. Roster space is what a promising FRP in his "second" year is worth? I'd hate to be so pessimistic...
You have to take shots to miss them.
(04-19-2022, 04:39 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Josh has some the nerves you'd expect of someone in their first high school game. Utah is literally not guarding him.
At first he looked like that in the regular season. I think there is still a chance that he develops. The promise he showed towards the end of the season, for me, is too good to just give up on.
I'm not this down on Green, but if a team wanted him as sweetener, I'd have little to no problem giving him up to get the best player in the trade.
(04-19-2022, 04:40 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]What a take. If you miss shots in a playoff game, you are terrified.
I don't agree with cow cow's conclusions. But I agree that Josh has played scared. He's not just missing shots. He's dribbling around, not knowing able to do anything about the fact that they're not even guarding him.
(04-19-2022, 04:40 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]You have to take shots to miss them.
He's taken 9 shots in 16 minutes.
Second (0.56) only to Jalen Brunson (0.59) in shots per minute.