(12-19-2019, 11:39 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (12-19-2019, 07:52 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ] (12-19-2019, 06:18 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]@"mavsluvr", Isaac Harris expressed something similar to your post. The one player that he thought that the Mavs would pounce on if they could muster a reasonable offer was Jrue Holiday.
Most posters here are offering multiple firsts, 2nds, AND young players for Jrue Holiday.
Why blow the entire asset chest on an oft-injured, good-not-great guard?
I understand what you're saying here.
This is what is so frustrating about our offseason. We signed four players to excellent contracts given their ability levels - DFS, Maxi, Seth, and Wright. We had the money to go out and get two more players of that level. Instead, we have a TPE, which given our history with those, is likely to expire without incident (banghead). The Mavs are in a dangerous position. They have three, or maybe four holes (in the ten-man rotation, because it's looking to me as time goes on that Justin is *not* a playoff rotation player) to fill. Any trades they make beyond TPE + seconds or Lee + seconds is going to create more holes as well as straining chemistry. Those holes won't be able to be filled in-season, and will be difficult to fill in the offseason depending on the contract situations the players we traded for created. If we had those two more 7th-man guys, we might have some trouble distributing minutes, but we wouldn't have nearly as many concerns about roster improvements in one area hurting it somewhere else.
We don’t need a 10 man rotation in the playoffs. We need an 8 man rotation with spot/burst minutes for the rest. The 3 off the bench should be a big, wing and guard. Minutes for the 8 go up. JJ is a part of the 10 man regular season rotation. I myself don’t mind cutting into that 10 man rotation for the right player that will be a part of the 8 man and especially the 5 starters.
There have been those that talk about the FO plays the long game. Trading for players that have the chance to disrupt chemistry now but are better in the long run is this strategy.
Side note: I still don’t get why people talk about saving money for 2021 without having any rebuttal to the many times that strategy has been debunked.
The Mavericks have a net rating of +7.4 in 550 minutes without Luka Doncic on the floor this season.
That’s better than the...
- 2018-19 Raptors
- 2017-18 Warriors
- 2015-16 Cavaliers
- 2011-12 Heat
- 2010-11 Mavericks
The Luka-less Mavs are playing at a championship level.
V, that's awesome. But be careful with that tidbit. A chunk of that net rating, when Luka was healthy, was built against opposing benches.
Don't look now but surprisingly, rebounding is not a problem for this team. In fact, it's a strength.
- Mavs are one of only two teams in the NBA with two top 20 rebounders (KP + Luka),
- No 4 in total rebounds, and
- No 5 in rebound differential.
(12-21-2019, 09:17 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]Don't look now but surprisingly, rebounding is not a problem for this team. In fact, it's a strength.
- Mavs are one of only two teams in the NBA with two top 20 rebounders (KP + Luka),
- No 4 in total rebounds, and
- No 5 in rebound differential.
It helps to have a PG with a D RB% of 25.9. Luka as your PG almost assures you a middle of the pack rebounding stat. KP raising his career average D RB% by more than 25% probably wasn't as predictable.
Updated through last night, RPM has all nine of the Mav's top MPG guys in the Top 35 in their position. Luka doesn't share the court (typically) with anyone who is top 10 in their position. But, the bench is made up completely of guys who rate among the top 30 (starters). Explains why our bench is so good. I realize not everyone loves this stat. But, there are Mav ties to this stat, so is at least worth looking at when dreaming up fantasy trades.
Below are the positional ranks and the RPM for each of our top 9 players:
Luka 5 3.41
Brunson 3 3.28
Powell 11 2.13
KP 12 1.91
Curry 18 1.90
Wright 16 1.82
THJ 29 0.90
Maxi 18 0.78
DFS 34 0.07
Another Stat with Mav ties is found at 82games.com. They are now out with their 19/20 numbers (like RPM, they waited a while before releasing). Tops among Mav rotation players in NET PER are:
Luka 24.1
Wright 8.6
Curry 3.2
Brunson 2.0
THJ 1.1
Maxi 0.2
Powell KP and DFS are all negative by this stat (their direct opponent is putting up more production as measured by PER than they are). Looking at this number you'd think this team would barely be able to get the ball across half court w/o Luka. But, obviously the last few games tell a different story...he sucks a lot of the oxygen out of the room. It will be interesting to see if Dallas can find a balance between Luka ball and the kind of D and ball movement we've seen w/o Luka.
The other Stat they have at 82games.com is on-court/off-court:
Powell 4.3
Brunson 3.6
Luka 1.9
Wright 1.6
THJ 1.3
Curry -0.2
KP, Maxi and DFS are all in the -7 to -8 range (numbers updated through 12/16).
This all probably has an impact on fantasy trading. No matter what we THINK and what our eye-tests tell us, it will be hard to replace Powell, Brunson, Wright and Curry with players who are more impactful with the assets we have. If Hardaway was making $10-$12 million or was expiring, you could trade him pretty easily...but he's not. KP isn't going anywhere. I think the upgrade targets (if we do anything at all at the TDL) are probably Maxi and DFS. Maxi is top 4 on the team defensively (538.com data) and has a really unique skill set. I wouldn't want to lose DFS, just move him to sub status. Seems to me you'd want to deal Jackson, GSW and expiring Lee and move the acquired player into the starting lineup and DFS to the bench.
(12-21-2019, 11:09 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ].... Maxi is top 4 on the team defensively (538.com data) and has a really unique skill set. I wouldn't want to lose DFS, just move him to sub status. Seems to me you'd want to deal Jackson, GSW and expiring Lee and move the acquired player into the starting lineup and DFS to the bench.
1st, guess I'm not up on my Mavs acronyms but who is GSW?
Ok, now you're going to shift salary and get something impactful from the bottom of your roster, well alrighty then.
Thing about someone like DFS or Kleber is you also have to be careful about your team spirit and chemistry when you talk about moving rotation players from rotations that are already performing well with guys that appear to like and play for each other. Moving guys that are busting their butts for your team ...
(12-21-2019, 11:42 AM)Dahlsim Wrote: [ -> ] (12-21-2019, 11:09 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ].... Maxi is top 4 on the team defensively (538.com data) and has a really unique skill set. I wouldn't want to lose DFS, just move him to sub status. Seems to me you'd want to deal Jackson, GSW and expiring Lee and move the acquired player into the starting lineup and DFS to the bench.
1st, guess I'm not up on my Mavs acronyms but who is GSW?
Ok, now you're going to shift salary and get something impactful from the bottom of your roster, well alrighty then.
Thing about someone like DFS or Kleber is you also have to be careful about your team spirit and chemistry when you talk about moving rotation players from rotations that are already performing well with guys that appear to like and play for each other. Moving guys that are busting their butts for your team ...
Sorry...GSW should have been GSW #2 (early second rounder).
Totally agree regarding your point about moving rotation players who are performing well. A poster on another board made the point that minutes matter too. Guys are busting their butts right now for minutes. Crowd the rotation even further and it might be de-motivating.
As much as anything, I wanted to think through some of the many data points out there to focus my thinking on improving the team. It is a fairly tall task because things are going so well and the roles being filled seem to be delicately balanced. A good bit of attention has been paid to RoCo, but someone like Marcus Morris would probably be less expensive to attain. I'd give Lee and Jackson for him for sure and move DFS to the bench. That would clearly upgrade the starters and would keep DFS on the squad.
There are some cap related reasons I like this too. Moving Jackson free's up $5 million in space next summer and takes us past the MLE in cap space if we want to operate under the cap (amount of space depends on whether we keep our picks or not). If you want to keep Morris, you can use his one year rights and pay him up to 120% of his prior salary...way more than necessary probably considering no contender has cap space. That makes you an over the cap team and can use the MLE and still have plenty of room under the LT. Not sure we have any relationship left with NY to pull off such a deal, but that kind of thing (Morris or someone else) adds to talent and actually adds to summer flexibility.
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