More struggles in late game situations tonight. Let's hope this resolves itself soon. It's becoming a common issue.
(01-10-2020, 03:51 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status...5538229249
In our last 12 games we've had either Luka or KP missing in 10 of them. In one of the two games we had both Unicorns we only had THJ for six minutes. We are 5-7 during that 12 game stretch. 9 of the 12 opponents have been playoff teams.
(01-10-2020, 05:12 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (01-10-2020, 03:51 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status...5538229249
In our last 12 games we've had either Luka or KP missing in 10 of them. In one of the two games we had both Unicorns we only had THJ for six minutes. We are 5-7 during that 12 game stretch. 9 of the 12 opponents have been playoff teams.
Thank you for some great perspective
Perfect opportunity to play Boban. Howard and McGee cannot shoot at and he looked great in most of his matchups vs Dwight.
(01-10-2020, 05:12 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ] (01-10-2020, 03:51 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status...5538229249
In our last 12 games we've had either Luka or KP missing in 10 of them. In one of the two games we had both Unicorns we only had THJ for six minutes. We are 5-7 during that 12 game stretch. 9 of the 12 opponents have been playoff teams.
So you're saying we need to trade everyone not named Luka and KP because all hope is lost and we will be swept out of the first round...
(01-14-2020, 12:20 PM)ClutchDirk Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/All_Things_Mavs/stat...8970708998
Interesting. Theses mid-season, injury riddled, dog days have my hopes a little lower than that. But I'll gladly allow mathematical simulations and projections from bball ref to cheer me up a bit.
Here's the report:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fri..._prob.html
Notables:
- Our projected record is worse than the Clippers and Rockets, but our projected chance to win our division, the conference (!), and the finals (!!) are all higher than the Clippers and Rockets. That's just downright shocking to me!
- They project the Mavs at 52.7 wins and our Eastern Conference doppelganger, the Heat at 52.6 wins.
- The 8th seed is projected to go to the Spurs with only 38 wins.
- BBall Ref has a rating called Simple Rating System (SRS) that makes use of point differential and strength of schedule. That rating places the Mavs 3rd in the NBA behind the Bucks and Lakers.
The Introduction to the Playoff Probability Report section says:
The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilities are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 7500 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the Truehoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.
So it doesn't tell us what's poured into the mix to create the simulation, but based on the results, I imagine that offensive rating plays a decent size role in the recipe.
Fun stuff
https://media.giphy.com/media/NZiVASxQds7G8/giphy.gif
(01-14-2020, 02:28 PM)LukTheShadow Wrote: [ -> ]Those stats lol ... but if so:
Which stats?
I don't think their Playoff Probabilities thing is really a stat. They run simulations based on various stats and data (they mention strength of schedule and point differential) and then offer a report of the results.
I enjoyed reading the progress/record prediction comments above. I will be updating my every 10 game segment tracking system thread soon after tonight's 40th game is over. If we win, we will avert having any losing 10 game segments so far. We have gone 6-4, 8-2, 6-4 and a win would be 5-5.
Each 10 game segment has had one really bad loss (NY, NY, Charlotte and I forgot the other one). The first 3 had at least one really good win. This last one had the bad loss but no extra special wins.
Dick Motta talked about 10 game segments and Rick Carlisle mentioned them in earlier years. My point was that a quick start would be very helpful and we got it. It has been extremely helpful including the fact Luka and our record have combined to get us infinitely more respect and national TV games. I mentioned the absolute need for consistency and so far, we have not blown that as mentioned above being one of 4 teams who have not lost 3 in a row. With the win, we would be one game ahead of the 6-4 pace I hoped for. That would be 48 wins in 80 games with the last two remaining. Often those last two mean little though sometimes they mean everything.
I predict now we will at least maintain the current pace. Of all the top teams at 48 win paces and above, who can anyone think of that is younger and more likely to see continued internal improvement and less likely to see age related injury and load management issues. Of course, all teams are ruined by really bad injury luck, so there is that.
Which reminds me, has anyone seen or heard anything from DLord?
(01-14-2020, 02:33 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (01-14-2020, 12:55 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]https://media.giphy.com/media/NZiVASxQds7G8/giphy.gif
That gif......
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6gE6VcDIuwebfUje/giphy.gif)
If I get a gif related kudos from Kammrath then I'm doing something right!
(01-14-2020, 02:37 PM)Reunion Mav Wrote: [ -> ]I enjoyed reading the progress/record prediction comments above. I will be updating my every 10 game segment tracking system thread soon after tonight's 40th game is over. If we win, we will avert having any losing 10 game segments so far. We have gone 6-4, 8-2, 6-4 and a win would be 5-5.
Each 10 game segment has had one really bad loss (NY, NY, Charlotte and I forgot the other one). The first 3 had at least one really good win. This last one had the bad loss but no extra special wins.
Dick Motta talked about 10 game segments and Rick Carlisle mentioned them in earlier years. My point was that a quick start would be very helpful and we got it. It has been extremely helpful including the fact Luka and our record have combined to get us infinitely more respect and national TV games. I mentioned the absolute need for consistency and so far, we have not blown that as mentioned above being one of 4 teams who have not lost 3 in a row. With the win, we would be one game ahead of the 6-4 pace I hoped for. That would be 48 wins in 80 games with the last two remaining. Often those last two mean little though sometimes they mean everything.
I predict now we will at least maintain the current pace. Of all the top teams at 48 win paces and above, who can anyone think of that is younger and more likely to see continued internal improvement and less likely to see age related injury and load management issues. Of course, all teams are ruined by really bad injury luck, so there is that.
Which reminds me, has anyone seen or heard anything from DLord?
Great post and I love what you're doing with the 10 game stretches! I haven't heard DLord myself, but would love to. If you're lurking DL, hit me up and say hi if you can! You can create an alias and PM me :-)
(01-14-2020, 02:40 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]If I get a gif related kudos from Kammrath then I'm doing something right!
It was SO PERFECT. Well done, well done.