MavsBoard

(05-05-2022, 10:16 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think one win in this series would be enough to change the narrative. But if Mavs turn it around or at least make it a serious fight, narrative can change. However, personally, I just can't see it after this first two games. I think Mavs basically gave their best in both games. We can't expect there will be many games where every player will be awesome. Sure Brunson was bad, but Kleber was way above his average in game 1, for example. I prefer to look at team stats. As a team they were shooting over 40 % from three in both games and it wasn't even nearly enough. Ok, Phoenix was abnormally efficient which is not realistically sustainable, but it seems they can get their own far easier than Mavs. A lot of things would have to change in order for Mavs to win, imho.

After the first game, can't remember who said it, but someone said our team doesn't give up the fight, ever (something to that effect). I think that's why we saw the crushing in the 4th quarter. I don't think they'll take a win for granted going forward.

(05-05-2022, 09:59 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]Narrative totally changes if Mavs win Game 3 at home, especially if Brunson or Dinwiddie get loose.

I'm not sure what should give us confidence in Spencer at this point.  His playoff performance has been really disappointing.

I don't think there's anything more we can do on defense. I'm more concerned about the offense. CP3 and Booker are rarely tested on defense aside from when they are switched onto Luka but that is maybe only a handful of possessions all game. When you have an offense that is 1 on 5, that allows them to stand there and rest to be fresh on offense. Booker is not known for defense but even when Brunson tried to attack him, he easily guarded him.

The Mavs 5-out offense ends up being a big weakness against this team because no one else is a legitimate shot creator. I know centers without 3-pt range aren't ideal for this offense but even someone like Nurkic who has some skills inside and can score the ball + rebound would make a huge difference (see Valenciunas for the Pelicans in round 1 or Zubac vs. the Suns last year)

(05-05-2022, 09:59 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]Narrative totally changes if Mavs win Game 3 at home, especially if Brunson or Dinwiddie get loose.

The narrative only changes if they win game 4, but you have to win game 3 first. They could win game 3, and lose game 4 and you're back to having to win a elimination game.

I predict that Mavs come back in this series. As with the beginning of Utah, there is a sense this will not work out and there is some level of panic going on. Phoneix is the best team in the league. So its a lot tougher. But this is close enough that one or two smaller adjustments can change the outcome. Key is how the pick and roll is played with Luka and Powell, some different reads are needed there. This adjustment will change everything. On defense, need to do more switching and zone and mobility. We havent seen that at all like all season along. Suddenly, we are quiet stationary on defense, and it is Pheonix offense that reads, and we are trying to react. Until now, our defense was reading and the offenses tried to react to it and adjust. That has a lot to do with Phoenix being a quality team, but also here just minor adjustment is needed.

Hate to say it but it's time to get the brooms ready. Luka's thigh bruise was clearly hampering his mobility in that game and Phoenix caught on to that and attacked him relentlessly. Thigh bruises don't heal quickly. Phoenix has an array of long defenders like the Clippers did to limit Brunson. This one's a wrap

If Mavs win game 3 at home the narrative changes to "Suns did what they were supposed to do but the series hasn't started yet". Momentum can change quickly and dramatically. 

2006 NBA Finals: 

Games 1 and 2: Mavs were favorites and looked like the better team, cruising to 2 wins at home.

Game 3: Mavs dominated first 42 minutes but the Heat rallied from a 13-point deficit with six minutes to go, to win by 2. 

Game 4: Heat blowout win at home.

Games 5 and 6: I'd rather not recap.

(05-05-2022, 01:02 PM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]If Mavs win game 3 at home the narrative changes to "Suns did what they were supposed to do but the series hasn't started yet". Momentum can change quickly and dramatically. 

2006 NBA Finals: 

Games 1 and 2: Mavs were favorites and looked like the better team, cruising to 2 wins at home.

Game 3: Mavs dominated first 42 minutes but the Heat rallied from a 13-point deficit with six minutes to go, to win by 2. 

Game 4: Heat blowout win at home.

Games 5 and 6: I'd rather not recap.

Come on now. I’m more reminded of this series: https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...ggets.html

It was a good 1st round but we are just clearly outmatched at this point and beyond. Watching the Suns, Warriors, and Grizzlies in the West - these teams are just on another level in terms of talent and depth. Warriors/Grizz can afford to have off nights from two of their key starters and still win. The Mavs need perfect games from Luka and at least one of Brunson/Dinwiddie (and preferably all three).

Good enough to get past the first round but there's a big gap between being one of the Top-8 teams and then being good enough to be Top-4.

What am I thinking bringing up 2006!?!

Just look at this exact Suns team in last year's Finals. 

I totally forgot they went up 2-0 - with two double digit victories - before the Bucks held serve at home, won game 5 on the road and closed them out in game 6 at home. 

This series ain't over.

(05-05-2022, 02:38 PM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]What am I thinking bringing up 2006!?!

Just look at this exact Suns team in last year's Finals. 

I totally forgot they went up 2-0 - with two double digit victories - before the Bucks held serve at home, won game 5 on the road and closed them out in game 6 at home. 

This series ain't over.

You remember all the series, when the superior team went up 2-0 and just won. In NBA history, the team that goes up 2-0, wins the series 93% of the time.

(05-05-2022, 02:46 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]You remember all the series, when the superior team went up 2-0 and just won. In NBA history, the team that goes up 2-0, wins the series 93% of the time

Yes, sadly, I get it. 

Jrue Holiday shot like crap just like Brunson through two games but Brunson is no Jrue Holiday. 

I certainly *don't see how the Mavs win the series but that's why they play the games.

It reminds me more of the 2001 series against the Spurs. Mavs got their first series win in the Dirk Era against Utah and then just got undressed by the #1 seed Spurs. The best we can hope for is a legacy game for Luka to get 1 win to avoid the sweep like Dirk had in game 4 to close out Reunion Arena.

(05-04-2022, 11:20 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Luka is a MASSIVE defensive liability right now. He needs to man-up and change that or this series is OVER.

What a difference it makes when Luka gives just a little concerted effort on D. The whole team D improves massively.

Brunson got going
Now just got to figure out how to get something, anything from Dinwiddie and we might just have a chance
What a disappointment he's been