MavsBoard

(05-07-2022, 06:57 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I think Luka should worry more about getting 10+ assists than getting 30 points.

I have been screaming this from the mountaintops for years. Totally agree.

(05-07-2022, 07:19 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I have been screaming this from the mountaintops for years. Totally agree.

Yes you have.  I have to think this series has been an embarrassment.  He looks terrible defensively.  I think the best version of Luka is 25/26 points and 12 assists and 10 rebounds with at least average D.  I don’t want him to ever be the MVP because it probably means he’s at 30 a game and over 22 shots.

Between the outstanding Clippers series and the Olympics, Luka probably felt like little needed to change.  The changes needed are subtle.  Come into the season in fantastic shape.  Don’t be so bad at D that teams target you.  Don’t disrupt the excellent ball movement that occurs when you sit.  Of course, none of that matters unless we get some upgrades elsewhere.  I also don’t think he does himself any favors with the Ref’s.  A lot of what needs to happen is just growing up a bit more.  He’s a man child out there and it is easy to forget he’s just 23.

Edit:  I’ll add one thing related to D.  He’s got a similar savant sixth sense defensively when he wants to.  I’ve seen him make the kind of important winning plays on D that Kidd made late in games late in his career.  But, he has to want to make those plays rather than resting at that end of the court.

(05-07-2022, 07:29 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Yes you have.  I have to think this series has been an embarrassment.  He looks terrible defensively.  I think the best version of Luka is 25/26 points and 12 assists and 10 rebounds with at least average D.  I don’t want him to ever be the MVP because it probably means he’s at 30 a game and over 22 shots.

Between the outstanding Clippers series and the Olympics, Luka probably felt like little needed to change.  The changes needed are subtle.  Come into the season in fantastic shape.  Don’t be so bad at D that teams target you.  Don’t disrupt the excellent ball movement that occurs when you sit.  Of course, none of that matters unless we get some upgrades elsewhere.  I also don’t think he does himself any favors with the Ref’s.  A lot of what needs to happen is just growing up a bit more.  He’s a man child out there and it is easy to forget he’s just 23.

Edit:  I’ll add one thing related to D.  He’s got a similar savant sixth sense defensively when he wants to.  I’ve seen him make the kind of important winning plays on D that Kidd made late in games late in his career.  But, he has to want to make those plays rather than resting at that end of the court.

I like to think that Q4 of game 2 will be the moment when he realizes what he needs to do after he was exposed in an embarrassing way.

1. get his body in shape in the offseason 

2. take defense seriously and work on ways to improve 

3. grow up and stop arguing with fans/players/refs. Instead use that as fuel

4. learn to manage and close a game like a CP3 does. Work on the chess moves and get his teammates involved. Drop the hero ball when it’s counterproductive 

These are simple changes that would take him and the team to another level. He has to want it though. All signs show that he does

https://twitter.com/mavsfilmroom/status/...78464?s=21&t=cDv3OB9iZ7XDjMwHi3lI1A

The crazy thing about all those Luka postups in the last game is that they came with him as the primary ballhandler coming in from the perimeter. Such a rare thing to pull off but Luka makes it look routine. 

Imagine how dangerous his postups could be if they figure out how to get him in those spots off the ball. Hopefully that's something they work on this summer.

I argued earlier, if the Mavs win game 3, the narrative would totally change from "Mavs are out" to "This series hasn't started yet".  I think I was wrong.

Game 4 narrative seems to be CP3 and Booker uncharacteristically turned the ball over and didn't play up to their standards. Ok, I'm actually fine with that because the hidden secret is the Mavs didn't play exceptionally well either, but they still won. 
 
This team is still being counted out. Not talented enough. There's sort of a "good for you, kid" vibe around Game 3. The Mavs played exceptionally hard is all. The Suns let one slip away but they're still the much better team.

But it's interesting to note: 

-If Dallas hit shots at the expected rate based on shot quality, the Mavs would've won Game 1. 

-The Suns might have been blown out in Game 3 if a role player, Crowder, didn't break out of a slump to shoot lights out.

-Game 3 was the first time the Mavs best players stayed out of foul trouble to get their expected minutes. Except Luka, who was somewhat limited with foul trouble.

-CP3 turned the ball over 6, 4 and 5 times in last years Finals. Good scouting and defensive pressure can impact even a point god. I'm sure he'll turn the ball over less in game 4 but will he continue to shoot 60% from the floor?

-Suns have shot 46% from three for the series averaging 12 of 27. During the regular season this team shot 36% on 10 of 27 attempts. Are the Suns due for a bad shooting night on the road?

-Mavs are shooting 38% from three, right about their season average, on the same number of attempts. Are they due for a great shooting night at home? 

Game 4 is going to be a battle.

The Sun missed a ton of shots at the rim.  You can credit some of that to the defense but some of it was just uncharacteristic.

(05-07-2022, 11:50 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]The Sun missed a ton of shots at the rim.  You can credit some of that to the defense but some of it was just uncharacteristic.

That's the other narrative around Game 3. CP3 and Book turned it over and the Suns missed bunnies. Voulgaris has the analytics on this but they might have expected to score and additional 10 points off those bunnies. But I'm totally ok with this (and hope the Suns think the Mavs win was just a scrappy anomaly) because they also made some lucky 3s including Crowder. Analytically, it evens out. 

Count the Mavs out out if you want but they were the better team last night.

That said, I do expect the Suns to be better in Game 4. Mavs have to be better too.

(05-07-2022, 11:57 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]That's the other narrative around Game 3. CP3 and Book turned it over and the Suns missed bunnies. Voulgaris has the analytics on this but they might have expected to score and additional 10 points off those bunnies. But I'm totally ok with this (and hope the Suns think the Mavs win was just a scrappy anomaly) because they also made some lucky 3s including Crowder. Analytically, it evens out. 

Count the Mavs out out if you want but they were the better team last night.

That said, I do expect the Suns to be better in Game 4. Mavs have to be better too.

I don't think Crowder is a fluke.  We are treating him somewhere in between how other teams cover Powell and Green.  That does seem largely by design.  Make him beat you instead of someone else.   On the flip side, we survived a rocky 2nd half performance by Luka.  We've seen all cylinders clicking by the Suns but not the Mavs.  Here is hoping for that to happen in games 4-7.

(05-07-2022, 12:33 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think Crowder is a fluke.  We are treating him somewhere in between how other teams cover Powell and Green.  That does seem largely by design.  Make him beat you instead of someone else.   On the flip side, we survived a rocky 2nd half performance by Luka.  We've seen all cylinders clicking by the Suns but not the Mavs.  Here is hoping for that to happen in games 4-7.

Crowder shot 35.9% on wide open (closest defender 6+ ft away) 3s during the regular season.

The Mavs will absolutely destroy the Suns in the next game. Luka has now seen all the looks Suns are doing defensively, and Luka already adjusted in last game, and is going to pick them apart like Tom Brady in the next game, and put the players in best position to succeed, and the other players than Luka have now gained the correct confidence going into game 4 and ready and willing to take the responsibility and the lead as we have seen in game 3 that trend.

Game 5 will be reallt tough, and decided in clutch. Mavs will enter that game with a huge momentum if the above prediction dealing with game 4 is right. But Suns are very consistent team and impossible to destroy two times in a row. All speaks for this one to be decided at the very end.

What’s the story with Cam Payne? Last year he really impressed me in Phoenix’s playoff run. Against the Mavs, he’s gone:


Game 1: 4/8, 1/3, 9 points, -7 in 19 mins

Game 2: 2/4, 0/1, 4 points, -10 in 12 mins

Game 3: 0/4, 0/2, 0 points, -3 in 14 mins

For those of you dogging on Dinwidde, be grateful he isn’t playing like Cam.

https://twitter.com/thekobebeef/status/1...66274?s=21&t=djFJnYAL9NK7NbVnnCKUng

Crazy Kidd never thought a challenge was the right play to keep Luka in.

Luka shot 1-10 (10%) on threes in Gm 4.

The other Mavs shot 19-34 (56%) on threes in Gm 4.

(05-07-2022, 02:21 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavs will absolutely destroy the Suns in the next game. Luka has now seen all the looks Suns are doing defensively, and Luka already adjusted in last game, and is going to pick them apart like Tom Brady in the next game, and put the players in best position to succeed, and the other players than Luka have now gained the correct confidence going into game 4 and ready and willing to take the responsibility and the lead as we have seen in game 3 that trend.

Kudos to you, not just for this post, but the consistent belief in the team when many are doubting.

(05-08-2022, 05:16 PM)BolsDamols Wrote: [ -> ]Kudos to you, not just for this post, but the consistent belief in the team when many are doubting.

They adjusted the pick and roll, as I predicted, the keyis was th. Suns gave away the floater from the first play in game 1. Luka adjusted, he always does as a QB. This changed everything. Once the pick and roll was fixed, they started to double from the perimeter, and then Luka got it out for free players, and its game over at that time. The next thing Suns will do is attack Luka with Ayton, and then we will see ton of Powell dunks. They will not be able to hold down Dallas scoring. It will all depend on what happens on other end. It seems our defense is also starting to figuring them out - bend but dont break strategy it seems.