GAME 3: POR (2-1) @ DAL (2-1) | 119-121 loss

[bartlettbear]

Everyone is saying Luka needs go to the basket, what we are saying that is coaches job to put players in position to do that.  If Luka is taking bad shots (we all agree he was)  you call a play where he catches the ball on the block plain and simple that is coaching that is what coaches do. You all believe it is on the player to adjust but that is what coaches main job is.

bb I can't take your RC stuff seriously because you'd criticize Rick for losing even if we lost by Luka going to basket and missing a shot at the rim or missing a floater. 

You and I have no idea what Rick and Luka talk about regarding these situations. Also, I said that Luka should have taken the ball to the basket because the second half told me that the team didn't have their legs. I think Rick may have told the team this because in the 4th quarter they did go to the basket more (but I have no idea what he told them). 

So yes, I think Luka should have gone to the basket. But that doesn't mean "Luka is taking bad shots" in general. Luka often makes those shots. He's won games with those shots. I don't want him to stop taking those shots. I just thought the situation last night called for going to the basket. 

But your scenario doesn't make sense because Luka is lethal at getting to the basket by starting from the perimeter. Rick doesn't have to call a play where Luka gets the ball on the block. Rick can tell him to try to get to the basket (I have no idea whether he did or not), but even then, Luka is the one with the ball in his hands, and this superstar/coach relationship surely involves Rick giving Luka a certain amount of leeway.

it makes sense if he was gassed less effort, the game is easier in the post, Luka is an excellent post player,  and there should be a few set plays that utilize that,  you could easily have KP make the entry pass as well. That is the easiest way to score.  Luka is man I dont  think there is guard in the league that can handle him on the low block A great coach would develop that part of his game.   So if understand the game then the scenario would make perfect sense.

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Look at the out of bounds play that was  called with 8 second left on  the shot clock, 

 Luka could have started up top down screened for KP, sealed his man if they switched, ball could have been entered into KP against smaller defender, who could have easily made and entry pass to luka.  Curry could have been in bounder and you  not been able to double off of him. 

  The play that  called did not work, results matter

[fifteenth]

Look at the out of bounds play that was  called with 8 second left on  the shot clock, 

 Luka could have started up top down screened for KP, sealed his man if they switched, ball could have been entered into KP against smaller defender, who could have easily made and entry pass to luka.  Curry could have been in bounder and you  not been able to double off of him. 

  The play that  called did not work, results matter

I'm not arguing against your play in general. I think throwing the ball to Luka in the block would work great. I'm just saying that Luka gets to the basket anytime he wants when he starts at the 3pt line. No reason to criticize that as a play. And Luka starting at the 3 pt line gives him the double threat of either 3 pt shot or drive. The two outcomes set each other up. 

And I'm sure as Luka's career moves forward he and Rick will be adding more to his tool box. What year of Dirk's career did Rick take over? We think of Dirk at the nail as a Dirk staple, but it was Rick who installed that.

[StepBackJay]

I was really happy with the effort last night, wish we could have gotten the win knowing we have more tough matchups ahead. Mavs just didn't execute late which will happen some nights. Also missed some shots but if we could have executed better once or twice late the Mavs would have won the game.

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I don't understand why we don't use a coach's challenge every game to get an extra possession for an obvious bad call?

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I want 

Luka / Brunson
Delon / Curry
Jackson/ THJ
DFS / Maxi
KP / Powell

with a finishing 5 of

Luka 
Delon
Curry
DFS
KP

I think I want Luka, Delon, DFS, KP, Maxi as starters (or DP in place of Maxi). The issue some nights will be Maxi and DFS struggling from 3 but I like the defense and length of this lineup. Your shortest guy is 6'5.

Closing with Curry makes a lot of sense as he will take big shots, I like the lineup you have there.

[fifteenth]

I don't understand why we don't use a coach's challenge every game to get an extra possession for an obvious bad call?

Saving the challenge until the last play paid off for the Blazers. Maybe that's the way to play it.

[StepBackJay]

I don't understand why we don't use a coach's challenge every game to get an extra possession for an obvious bad call?

Saving the challenge until the last play paid off for the Blazers. Maybe that's the way to play it.

That's what I figured would happen but Rick didn't use a challenge at all.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status...4509838336

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I think I'd rather have Curry starting next to Luka because he is going to get a lot of open looks.  (this would probably lead to DFS starting for wing defense.  but honestly DFS/JJ/THJ all are meh)

I think I'd rather have Delon coming off the bench because he's said he feels more comfortable with the ball in his hands.  Have him and Brunson lead the second unit.

Then you can determine who needs to close based on how the game is going.

[SportPsychMav]

I think I'd rather have Curry starting next to Luka because he is going to get a lot of open looks.  (this would probably lead to DFS starting for wing defense.  but honestly DFS/JJ/THJ all are meh)

I think I'd rather have Delon coming off the bench because he's said he feels more comfortable with the ball in his hands.  Have him and Brunson lead the second unit.

Then you can determine who needs to close based on how the game is going.

In all likelihood Curry will start. I can even imagine Luka, Maxi, Zinger, Powell, Curry.

At least I would try that.

[Thukydides]

Really, it´s a shame we lost this one. Our pick´n roll defense was atrocious. Maxi, KP DFS, Brunson all got cooked- especially the switches were very poor. Curry did better than those. Wright must play much more, we must realize that. He is such a plus on the court, should get +30 min every night. 

Luka should have sat longer in the 4th, still doesn´t seem in shape to keep up his focus with heavy minutes. I think it´s notable, that RC doesn´t call plays in the end. He just lets Luka handle the situation, even when he obviously struggled in the last few possessions. A few more play calls that get KP a decent shot around the paint, wouldn´t be the worst thing in the world.

[Bonk]

Those last plays were bad, I was at the game, and it sucked the air out of the building. Kristaps had a small guarding him at th elbow, Seth appeared to be open from my vantage point, Luka decides to jack up a bad shot. He's still 20 years old, there will be growing pains.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Moderators, can we please ban Bartlettbear from the game thread. Other than him, the thread would have been readable. Let this be a test of how well this board will be run.
We all now most of us quit the thread last year for this exact reason!

[SleepingHero]

Moderators, can we please ban Bartlettbear from the game thread. Other than him, the thread would have been readable. Let this be a test of how well this board will be run.
We all now most of us quit the thread last year for this exact reason!

You can add him to your personal Ignore list, but we cannot ban someone for voicing their opinion in a manner that doesn't violate the general decorum we've established here.

You might disagree with Bartlettbear, but that doesn't justify a ban.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Why do you want a separate bench unit? This is the whole idea of staggering KP and Luka, so that we have 48 minutes of strong lineups on the floor.

Right now, staggering isn't working.  Add to that the fact we have a recent history of producing bench lineups that were fantastic (Powell being a big catalyst to those lineups) and it is easy to envision a different path to winning than the one we all presumed would happen.  Here are the numbers regarding KP/Luka on and off the court from the Athletic:

• [b]Luka and Porzingis together:[/b] 73 minutes, 113.0 ORTG, 104.3 DRTG, +8.7 net rating
  
  
• [b]Luka on, Porzingis off:[/b] 35 minutes, 106.5 ORTG, 98.8 DRTG, +7.7 net rating
  
  
• [b]Porzingis on, Luka off:[/b] 19 minutes, 91.1 ORTG, 134.8 DRTG, -43.7 net rating
  

That was through two games.  The team was -7 against Portland when KP was on and Luka was off.  48 minutes of strong lineups is a good goal.  Staggered minutes might eventually work.  But, it isn't working right now and wearing out Luka at 38 minutes isn't a formula for success either.

[omahen]

Right now, staggering isn't working

You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.

[fifteenth]

Right now, staggering isn't working

You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.

Dan gave a +/- for lineups without Luka or KP in his original post

Two games isn't enough data for hard conclusions, but it's all we got. We're not going to wait until 20 games in to talk about how things are working and what might be tweaked. And we're not alone in thinking through and tinkering with lineups...Rick is tinkering with lineups!! 

In fact, your argument against a more defined bench unit is done with only 2 games of data as well. So argue for a complete stagger of Luka and KP all you want, you might turn out to be right, but no need to throw "not enough data" at us unless we all just go ahead and agree to not tinker for 20 games. But I don't think you'll get Rick to agree with that.

[omahen]

In fact, your argument against a more defined bench unit is done with only 2 games of data as well.

Wow, some wrong conclusions you are making from my post. I never said I am against RC experimenting with line-ups. I also didn't say there is not enough data. 

I have a hard time accepting an argument that a line-up without KP is better than line-up with KP. Because this is basically what you are claiming.

Again - the data you provided just shows, that Mavs are worse without Luka on the court. It doesn't show that a "KP-less second unit" is better than "KP-with second unit". And if that would be a fact, I would really be worried, because I thought KP is some kind of Unicorn.

On a funny side: Mavs won all games where Lee started and lost all games where Lee didn't play :-)

[fifteenth]

I also didn't say there is not enough data. (1)

omahen meet omahen

Right now, staggering isn't working

(1) You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.

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I have a hard time accepting an argument that a line-up without KP is better than line-up with KP. 

Well if that's the point you're trying to make, then ok, cool. That's reasonable, of course. 

During this lineup tinkering portion of the season I'd like to see some Brunson/Curry/Powell/Maxi lineups thrown out there to see how it works. The past couple of years a lineup very similar to that has been really successful.

[embellisher]

New board, same old bartlettbear and mtrot bashing RC. 

It was obvious that Luka and Zinger were out of gas in the fourth. Tired players start jacking up threes instead of driving.

[DanSchwartzgan]

You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.

More accurately, the data I posted from The Athletic isn't enough to draw a conclusion either way regarding whether the Neither KP/Luka lineups have been better than the KP Only lineups.  It isn't addressed.  That doesn't mean the conclusion isn't true.  As Fifteenth said, I posted that data through two games earlier.  In the Portland game KP without Luka was -16 and the Neither lineup was +9.  It was interesting that with the return of Powell, Carlisle went to a more platooned approach.  KP played without Luka for only 4:56...much less than in past games.  The Neither lineup played 8 1/2 minutes.  Both were VERY effective as Luka's time on the court was a -17 in a game we won by 3.

Back to the original point.  There is nothing in our small sample size that indicates KP with bench players equates to a Strong Lineup.  We do have some data to the contrary and we have a history in recent years where a cohesive bench has been able to stand on its own without the help of a star.

Here is what we do know...  
KP has been net negative in 3 of our 4 games (all of the wins).
On the season his On Court is -2.5 and his On minus Off is -17.8
Despite gaudy box score data, KP's historic On Court numbers aren't good...-0.1, -2.8, +0.6 and the current -2.5
That isn't a huge worry for me as his team's have not been good.  His On-Off is usually good.  I suspect rust and just trying to fit in are contributing to ineffectiveness this season so far.
This season the net of his O-Rating minus his D-Rating is +1.  If that holds, it will be the first positive number in his career.
KP is a net negative in two man lineups in every combination except DFS, Brunson and THJ.  

Might a KP plus bench lineup eventually be strong?  Obviously.  Every one of us assumed so prior to the season starting.  Can a Neither lineup also be strong?  Obviously.  Truth is the team needs both variations to be strong as both will play a role (much like last night).

[fifteenth]

You can't really conclude that from the info you have. Might be, the second unit would be even worse without KP. What the stats show is that Mavs are worse without Luka. And it is not because KP plays with the second unit.

More accurately, the data I posted from The Athletic isn't enough to draw a conclusion either way regarding whether the Neither KP/Luka lineups have been better than the KP Only lineups.  It isn't addressed.  That doesn't mean the conclusion isn't true.  As Fifteenth said, I posted that data through two games earlier.  In the Portland game KP without Luka was -16 and the Neither lineup was +9.  It was interesting that with the return of Powell, Carlisle went to a more platooned approach.  KP played without Luka for only 4:56...much less than in past games.  The Neither lineup played 8 1/2 minutes.  Both were VERY effective as Luka's time on the court was a -17 in a game we won by 3.

Back to the original point.  There is nothing in our small sample size that indicates KP with bench players equates to a Strong Lineup.  We do have some data to the contrary and we have a history in recent years where a cohesive bench has been able to stand on its own without the help of a star.

Here is what we do know...  
KP has been net negative in 3 of our 4 games (all of the wins).
On the season his On Court is -2.5 and his On minus Off is -17.8
Despite gaudy box score data, KP's historic On Court numbers aren't good...-0.1, -2.8, +0.6 and the current -2.5
That isn't a huge worry for me as his team's have not been good.  His On-Off is usually good.  I suspect rust and just trying to fit in are contributing to ineffectiveness this season so far.
This season the net of his O-Rating minus his D-Rating is +1.  If that holds, it will be the first positive number in his career.
KP is a net negative in two man lineups in every combination except DFS, Brunson and THJ.  

Might a KP plus bench lineup eventually be strong?  Obviously.  Every one of us assumed so prior to the season starting.  Can a Neither lineup also be strong?  Obviously.  Truth is the team needs both variations to be strong as both will play a role (much like last night).