DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[StepBackJay]

I enjoy that @"omahen" and myself finally found common ground after all this time.

Oladipo - make it happen Donnie!

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/...9272213507

Dallas talk starts around 50 minutes...

[cow]

If it's a player we want and are on the last year of their deal, I'd need an extension to be comfortable.

There is no extension. For any team. Part of the reason he is cheap. #18 is cheap. Plus Dallas doesn't want to give extension anyway, because this kills Giannis pipedream (plus all the risks involved with actually giving that extension). 

I don't think they are bringing anyone with longer than 2021 contract with the #18. So it is either a pick or an expiring - whatever you prefer. I prefer expiring, because I want them to be as good as possible in 2020/21. So that they really can sell themselves as a good FA destination. If something goes wrong in 2020, their FA pitch be much closer to the likes of Atlanta or Phoenix than to Miami or Toronto.

In Oladipo's case, I'd rather have the pick.  Remember that he's looking for a max deal.  In almost any scenario, he's nothing more than a 1-year rental.  Maybe we get lucky in the draft by getting a rotational piece on an inexpensive, controllable contract.  Oladipo isn't going to move the free agency needle for the Mavs.  More than anything that's gong to be KP's health.

[omahen]

More than anything that's gong to be KP's health.

Here I don't agree. If Mavs can improve with at least one starter level player, potential KP injury will not be (so) devastating. They will still be ok. But if Mavs basically run it back and only add #18, KP injury would be devastating. No matter how good Luka is, I don't think 2019 team can reach play-offs without KP.

[Omega_Supreme]

I think Omahen has stars in his eyes for the player Dipo

I don't. I just think the value Dipo brings to this team, even if just for 2020/21, is greater than #18. Considering chances what Dipo will look like post injury and chances what we may actually get for #18.

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He's certainly not trending that way. 

He had 19 games post injury. So what trend are you speaking about?

Giving up assets on hopes and dreams for a 1 year rental just seems too risky as would offering him an extension in the trade.

So please, what would be your realistic best way to utilize #18?

And the 36 games prior to the injury?  Or the 4 seasons prior to his singular outlier statistical season?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...ivi01.html

Injury concerns + inconsistent career performance limit my desire to want to extend him.  I'm not going to invest assets on what might be a one year rental unless that rental is for a can't miss difference maker.

I agree with this if I am going to give up a 1st round pick it better be for something or someone with fewer question marks and risks. I would make a move for Derozan. His mid range game would really compliment Luka and fit an area we do not have which is consistent scoring in the mid range. He is a much better player than Oladipo.

[StepBackJay]

More than anything that's gong to be KP's health.

Here I don't agree. If Mavs can improve with at least one starter level player, potential KP injury will not be (so) devastating. They will still be ok. But if Mavs basically run it back and only add #18, KP injury would be devastating. No matter how good Luka is, I don't think 2019 team can reach play-offs without KP.

Guh-gree. I think the best reason for a 3rd star (or borderline star?) is to hedge your bets so that there's a good chance at any time 2 out of the 3 stars are healthy and available to play.

[cow]

More than anything that's gong to be KP's health.

Here I don't agree. If Mavs can improve with at least one starter level player, potential KP injury will not be (so) devastating. They will still be ok. But if Mavs basically run it back and only add #18, KP injury would be devastating. No matter how good Luka is, I don't think 2019 team can reach play-offs without KP.

Even if Dipo gets traded here and helps us get to the playoffs, a 2021 FA is going to know that coming to Dallas means Dipo is out so again, I'm not sure how that moves the needle from a recruitment standpoint. Players are smart. They aren't going to just look at the record of a team and pack their bags.

[IamDougieFresh]

Hypothetically with Luka + KP + Oladipo around 75mil next off-season, you could add Giannis and fill the roster with minimums depending on cap situation. Whether that's a good idea or not is another question and it could be difficult to move some contracts (Dwight).

[omahen]

Even if Dipo gets traded here and helps us get to the playoffs, a 2021 FA is going to know that coming to Dallas means Dipo is out so again, I'm not sure how that moves the needle.

Well, KP will be back and Mavs are still selling the story of a loaded promising team - "look, even an injury to our number two guy didn't really derail us much". 

I think that last impression is important. I think people around the league look at Phoenix much differently now, after that great bubble run. A solid foundation, very young team. Still have #10 pick this year. Not to mention Miami. I am affraid if Mavs have a really bummer of a season and miss the playoffs, people might look at them as Minnesota 2.0. Like: "Yeah, they have some really talented players but they are not really there yet. Not playing defense, not serious. I am not going there, I doubt I can get my ring there". How many stars went to play with Towns or Booker? 

Let's assume Miami and Toronto are competitors for Giannis, if he decides to leave. They are selling a culture that it might be appealing to Giannis: "Look, we are not fooling around. We know what we want and we work extremely hard for it. With the pieces we have we are so close. We just need a star to push us over the hump, easily. We have top coach, top front office and overall top organization. Plus you will be the star, not second banana." That will be tough to beat and Mavs need to prove they are more than just a fun team to watch. Giannis is a serious hardworking guy, all business, always trying to improve. Mavs need to prove, they will be a dynasty. Same goes for any other top free agent.

[cow]

Even if Dipo gets traded here and helps us get to the playoffs, a 2021 FA is going to know that coming to Dallas means Dipo is out so again, I'm not sure how that moves the needle.

Well, KP will be back and Mavs are still selling the story of a loaded promising team - "look, even an injury to our number two guy didn't really derail us much". 

I think that last impression is important. I think people around the league look at Phoenix much differently now, after that great bubble run. A solid foundation, very young team. Still have #10 pick this year. Not to mention Miami. I am affraid if Mavs have a really bummer of a season and miss the playoffs, people might look at them as Minnesota 2.0. Like: "Yeah, they have some really talented players but they are not really there yet. Not playing defense, not serious. I am not going there, I doubt I can get my ring there". How many stars went to play with Towns or Booker? 

Let's assume Miami and Toronto are competitors for Giannis, if he decides to leave. They are selling a culture that it might be appealing to Giannis: "Look, we are not fooling around. We know what we want and we work extremely hard for it. With the pieces we have we are so close. We just need a star to push us over the hump, easily. We have top coach, top front office and overall top organization. Plus you will be the star, not second banana." That will be tough to beat and Mavs need to prove they are more than just a fun team to watch. Giannis is a serious hardworking guy, all business, always trying to improve. Mavs need to prove, they will be a dynasty. Same goes for any other top free agent.

I'm operating from the premise we aren't getting Giannis or any other top free agent.  Plan powder is ridiculous but if there is any excuse for it, it may be this offseason because of the talent pool. Further if a top tier free agent wants to play with Luka and KP, they'll know what their own worth is and that they can push the team over the top.  

We just have such precious few assets until all of our #1 picks are conveyed that you'll have a hard time talking me into investing them into short term rentals.

[Kammrath]

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https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...9820883968

Is Miami going to stack the cupboard for a Giannis trade?

[cow]

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https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...9820883968

Is Miami going to stack the cupboard for a Giannis trade?

That's where I would go if I were him and wanted to leave.

[omahen]

Is Miami going to stack the cupboard for a Giannis trade?

I don't think so, they don't have the assets. But there is a scenario they could do, if they more or less forget about Giannis. I doubt Adebayo-Giannis and Butler can coexist anyway, since none of them is a shooter.

1. Trade for Oladipo for something like Iguodala+Nunn+#20 (definitely an upgrade over Nunn)
2. Resign Dragic for something like 40 mil for 4 years 
3. Sign Grant for something like 60 mil for 4 years (upgrade over Iggy)
4. (I am not sure if MLE is available for them this point) Sign Crowder for MLE
5. Resign Jones Jr

Oladipo-Butler-Robinson-Grant-Adebayo
Dragic-Herro-Jones Jr-Crowder-Olynik

Surely improved team from the one that just got to finals.

[Kammrath]

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/10/nets...dline.html

“I think it’s been reported,” Windhorst said of those talks. “But if it hasn’t been reported, I found out somewhere – I don’t think it was from an executive, maybe it was – that there was some discussion between the Nets and Pelicans in February (involving Jrue Holiday).”

“I’m not 100% convinced that the Pelicans are going to move [Jrue],” Windhorst said. “I think it’s an option for them. I think it also depends on the coach that they hire and the way that coach wants to play. But they did kick it around (last season).”

[DanSchwartzgan]

I enjoy that @"omahen" and myself finally found common ground after all this time.

Oladipo - make it happen Donnie!

May I join the party? 

I think if done right that Oladipo might be the ultimate HIBW's deal.  You have to keep THJ so that both he and Dipo (and Jackson) are expiring.  Otherwise, it isn't a HIBW's deal.  If you do Wright/Curry and 18 for Dipo, you can sell the fan base on the former two time all-star as improvement.  Maybe it will be.  Dipo has every reason to play his butt off here.  I actually think the bigger risk is that he's fantastic and we are too good.  Let's say we make the WC finals.  Do you blow up 2/5th of your starting lineup (THJ and Dipo) to take a shot at Giannis?  What happens if he picks somewhere else and Dipo and THJ are gone by the time you circle back.  

The key here is moving on from Curry and Wright.  KP, Powell, Luka, Kleber, DFS, Brunson, 31 (3 year deal using part of MLE), the WCS hold and the right amount of minimums leaves $32.7mm on a $109.1mm cap.  Sound familiar?  Yes, that is a Giannis max.   

Are you more competitive in 2020?  Probably.  Health will determine.
Does it make you look like a serious player to fans and to opposing players?  I think so.
Can you create the necessary Powder to land Giannis?  Yes

Are we giving up a fan favorite (who has his own injury history) and a 50/50 shot at a replacement level player?  Yes.
Do I mind for Oladipo.  No.  This isn't about him.  It is about preserving your shot at Giannis while trying to improve in 2020.  HIBW's.

[Kammrath]

I actually think the bigger risk is that he's fantastic and we are too good.

[KillerLeft]

I enjoy that @"omahen" and myself finally found common ground after all this time.

Oladipo - make it happen Donnie!

May I join the party? 

I think if done right that Oladipo might be the ultimate HIBW's deal.  You have to keep THJ so that both he and Dipo (and Jackson) are expiring.  Otherwise, it isn't a HIBW's deal.  If you do Wright/Curry and 18 for Dipo, you can sell the fan base on the former two time all-star as improvement.  Maybe it will be.  Dipo has every reason to play his butt off here.  I actually think the bigger risk is that he's fantastic and we are too good.  Let's say we make the WC finals.  Do you blow up 2/5th of your starting lineup (THJ and Dipo) to take a shot at Giannis?  What happens if he picks somewhere else and Dipo and THJ are gone by the time you circle back.  

The key here is moving on from Curry and Wright.  KP, Powell, Luka, Kleber, DFS, Brunson, 31 (3 year deal using part of MLE), the WCS hold and the right amount of minimums leaves $32.7mm on a $109.1mm cap.  Sound familiar?  Yes, that is a Giannis max.   

Are you more competitive in 2020?  Probably.  Health will determine.
Does it make you look like a serious player to fans and to opposing players?  I think so.
Can you create the necessary Powder to land Giannis?  Yes

Are we giving up a fan favorite (who has his own injury history) and a 50/50 shot at a replacement level player?  Yes.
Do I mind for Oladipo.  No.  This isn't about him.  It is about preserving your shot at Giannis while trying to improve in 2020.  HIBW's.

Agree that the goal of acquiring Oladipo is worth considering, for the reasons you mention above. 

Agree that it only makes sense without THJ in the deal, for 2021 purposes. That probably doesn’t bode well for the on court fit of the team next year, unless either THJ or Oladipo comes off the bench, but the point is 2021.

i would tentatively like to “join the party” too, but...to get in the door, do I have to be ok with giving up Curry? Is there a back room in the party for those who hope (hopelessly) that the deal is Wright/Powell/#18?

[IamDougieFresh]

Wright/Powell/#18?

Now we are talking

[Kammrath]

So from my seat the only feasible "HIBW" approach to the off-season is Plan Accumulate Talented Tradeable Assets (Plan "ATTA").


This is why I am so adamant in keeping #18 and #31 unless you are acquiring someone that is a BETTER talented tradeable asset than those could be. 

1) If you draft well, then you have two more talented tradeable assets. 

2) If you do free agency well, then you have another one or two talented tradeable assets.

3) If you do the trade market well, then you turn some current talented tradeable assets into better talented tradeable assets OR consolidate talented tradeable assets into a single talented tradeable asset (for roster space management).


Talented assets help you get better on the court in 2021.

Tradeable assets help you get better flexibility to trade for OR clear space for a 3rd star WHEN the time approaches. 

[SamStetz]

Not sure my stance on an Oladipo trade, as my personal favorite at the moment is OPJ. HOWEVER, I have seen it proposed here a Jackson + 31 for Osman deal. If Dallas trades Jackson + 31 in a deal for Oladipo, I’d hope the salary would work out to bring back McDermott (I’ve been on this train since the day he left)