DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[StepBackJay]

I agree with JSW on this one. With #18 I think you have a 50/50 chance of either hitting on a nice cheap role player of which you have the rights to for a long time or getting a Justin Anderson type eating up 2.5 mil of cap space for multiple years.

And you can get role players in FA pretty easily if you know what you're doing. I would argue that our front office is much better finding role players outside of the draft than they are in the draft. For that reason if it's not a lotto pick, I am fine with using the pick as currency to improve the team through trade. You aren't missing out on a whole lot bc role players can be found elsewhere.

[Kammrath]

If you "hit" on a guy like Oladipo, you're probably one piece away from being a legit title contender.

I would actually say if you "hit" on Dipo and get his 23 PER, +7.3 offensive, +6.3 defensive self from the one outlier year of 2017-18 then you are a title contender immediately. 

BUT if you "miss" on Dipo and spend #18, #31, and a solid player or two, then you have moved backward significantly in asset management (and maybe set yourself back 2-3 years with contending, leaving "plan powder" as the only building option for the time being because your assets were wasted on Dipo). 

I think the odds of "hitting" on Dipo are like 2-5%. We have seen him perform in essentially two different seasons since his injury (Feb-Mar 2020 & Aug 2020). He looked no better in Aug than he did in Feb-Mar which is concerning. We saw him in the playoffs be a non-factor in winning and shoot under 40% (just like he has since being back) with a PER pf 12.8. This is the only concrete evidence we have post-injury (which is his reality). It looks risky as hell.

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My biggest concern about his post injury performance is the lack of quickness on defense.

HUGE concern.

[StepBackJay]

I watched some highlights of Dipo in the playoffs and he was moving around just fine. Don't know why there's any reason to believe he has lost lateral quickness.

[cow]

I wouldn't even say he's better than THJ offensively at this point in his career relative to the money you'd need to invest to retain him (not to mention spent assets).

And my comments about him playing next to Luka aren't me voting for Luka having the ball 100% of the time, but both Luka and Dipo need the ball in their hands to maximize their offensive punch. I just don't think their usage rates are compatible.

I'm not in love with our draft picks because of how weak this years draft is and how inept the MBT are at drafting. We just have precious few assets and need to spend them wisely. We can't spin our wheels for years on end and hope to retain Luka.

[omahen]

I think the odds of "hitting" on Dipo are like 2-5%... ...This is the only concrete evidence we have post-injury

Which made the odds of hitting on Porzingis at around 0,0001 %, because we had zero evidence post injury. Hell, we didn't even know if he will ever be healthy again. Not to mention all the evidence that 7'3'' guys never last in the league. We should have dumped him after first 19 games he played like crap while we had a chance. Now he is injured again and literally worthless. But hell yeah, we got THJ and Lee which are clearly better players than Matthews and Jordan (or additional cap space we would have to waste) which totally offsets the risk of dumping two first round picks (one unprotected) and the DSJ development effort in this trade. But #18 pick in this draft is national treasure and should not be used on a two way player coming from an injury. 

Unless his name is OPJ, than it is ok, because he just had bad luck of 27 or something consecutive  injuries and will be ok from now on. 

I am not saying Dipo is best possible player (although prime Dipo certainly is) we could get, but there is like 1 % chance the drafted player will be anywhere near his value. Not to mention it would take years before he gets to that.

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I just don't think their usage rates are compatible.

Grrr... Dipo played next to Westbrook and he was just fine. If he can be what he was in OKC he is better than any guard/wing we have on the roster.

[cow]

I think the odds of "hitting" on Dipo are like 2-5%... ...This is the only concrete evidence we have post-injury

Which made the odds of hitting on Porzingis at around 0,0001 %, because we had zero evidence post injury. Hell, we didn't even know if he will ever be healthy again. Not to mention all the evidence that 7'3'' guys never last in the league. We should have dumped him after first 19 games he played like crap while we had a chance. Now he is injured again and literally worthless. But hell yeah, we got THJ and Lee which are clearly better players than Matthews and Jordan (or additional cap space we would have to waste) which totally offsets the risk of dumping two first round picks (one unprotected) and the DSJ development effort in this trade. But #18 pick in this draft is national treasure and should not be used on a two way player coming from an injury. 

Unless his name is OPJ, than it is ok, because he just had bad luck of 27 or something consecutive  injuries and will be ok from now on. 

I am not saying Dipo is best possible player (although prime Dipo certainly is) we could get, but there is like 1 % chance the drafted player will be anywhere near his value. Not to mention it would take years before he gets to that.

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I just don't think their usage rates are compatible.

Grrr... Dipo played next to Westbrook and he was just fine. If he can be what he was in OKC he is better than any guard/wing we have on the roster.

For the money he is making and the money he'll command, I'd want more than just fine (OKC stats) which is also above the level of play he turned in last season.  And if he was such an asset, why aren't the Pacers interested in retaining him? Why didn't the Thunder?  Or the Magic?  Just because he's the best option available doesn't mean it's the right fit.

[StepBackJay]

@"omahen" you are that down on KP? That trade was the most slam-dunk trade ever. Any GM would have pulled the trigger on that and credit to Donnie for making it happen.

KP had an ACL surgery like a ton of other NBA players. The percentage chance of him returning to form were nowhere near 0% because we have evidence of many NBA players (most?) coming back from that injury just fine. Long-term it's an issue for sure because of his size and position but still worth the risk.

His injury this year was on his other knee and was a meniscus tear which had nothing to do with his ACL and is a very common injury among NBA players. Now is it a concern for the same reason that the ACL was a concern? Absolutely. He is 7'3 and runs around like a guard. It's entirely possible his body is not built for long-term success and his knees and/or other parts will wear down. But then again injuries happen all the time to any number of players. It's just part of it. Luka has a lot of ankle injuries. Dirk early in his career had a lot of ankle stuff that had people concerned.

At any rate the risk/reward for KP was so in the Mavs favor it was an unbelievable steal all things considered.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think the odds of "hitting" on Dipo are like 2-5%... ...This is the only concrete evidence we have post-injury

Which made the odds of hitting on Porzingis at around 0,0001 %, because we had zero evidence post injury. Hell, we didn't even know if he will ever be healthy again. Not to mention all the evidence that 7'3'' guys never last in the league. We should have dumped him after first 19 games he played like crap while we had a chance. Now he is injured again and literally worthless. But hell yeah, we got THJ and Lee which are clearly better players than Matthews and Jordan (or additional cap space we would have to waste) which totally offsets the risk of dumping two first round picks (one unprotected) and the DSJ development effort in this trade. But #18 pick in this draft is national treasure and should not be used on a two way player coming from an injury.

Unless his name is OPJ, than it is ok, because he just had bad luck of 27 or something consecutive injuries and will be ok from now on.

I am not saying Dipo is best possible player (although prime Dipo certainly is) we could get, but there is like 1 % chance the drafted player will be anywhere near his value. Not to mention it would take years before he gets to that.

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I just don't think their usage rates are compatible.

Grrr... Dipo played next to Westbrook and he was just fine. If he can be what he was in OKC he is better than any guard/wing we have on the roster.

You're kidding about KP being "literally worthless," right? More sarcastic schtick, right?

[omahen]

For the money he is making and the money he'll command, I'd want more than just fine (OKC stats) which is also above the level of play he turned in last season. 

Well, there is possibility he will be all star player again

And if he was such an asset, why aren't the Pacers interested in retaining him?

He will try free agency. Plus they can't afford to really pay him the max

Why didn't the  Thunder? 

Traded him for George. I think we can agree there are better players than Oladipo. Although pandemic P was right on par with injured VO

Or the Magic?

Again, they traded him for (what they thought was) a better player. Before he played for them.

ust because he's the best option available doesn't mean it's the right fit.

He is basically what we need (assuming he comes close to where he was). A good two way player, borderline star. He can create, he is a good defender and not a bad shooter. What else do you expect from player playing next to Luka for the assets we have? Arguments that he can't play off ball are silly to me. He played off ball in OKC and he was fine.

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@omahen you are that down on KP?

What do you think?  I was sarcastic

At any rate the risk/reward for KP was so in the Mavs favor it was an unbelievable steal all things considered.

Which is exactly what makes arguments "#18 for Dipo is too much" so silly. One can't say that trading for KP was "a move of a century" and not be willing to risk #18 (and a role player or two) for Dipo.

[Scott41theMavs]

In any event, if we did the Windhorst trade and Dipo turned out to be the player he was this past year, then 1) hopefully there wasn't a player at 18 or after whom the Mavs liked who becomes rotation-worthy his first year, let alone a guy who eventually becomes a star; 2) we most certainly won't want Dipo back, and will have his expiring money and perhaps THJ's to spend on Giannis/Kawhi/Jrue/whoever - that's good! and 3) hopefully Carlisle minimized any damage this version of Dipo would do to the locker room and team success. 

So #2 is a plus; #1 and #3 are the worries. 

I think Omahen has stars in his eyes for the player Dipo once was and does not see how poor this version of him is. This version of Dipo on a max deal would be Wes-esque, and that should in no way be a controversial opinion.

[omahen]

I think Omahen has stars in his eyes for the player Dipo once was and does not see how poor this version of him is. This version of Dipo on a max deal would be Wes-esque, and that should in no way be a controversial opinion.

Did we trade for KP he was in his first 30 games after injury? We don't need to pay max if he doesn't come back to what he was, we have full season to evaluate that. But if he can be a good 2 way player and a decent number two (like Middleton for example), we can also afford to throw max at him, unless some superstar is willing to sign with us.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...9820883968

[cow]

For the money he is making and the money he'll command, I'd want more than just fine (OKC stats) which is also above the level of play he turned in last season. 

Well, there is possibility he will be all star player again

He's certainly not trending that way.  Giving up assets on hopes and dreams for a 1 year rental just seems too risky as would offering him an extension in the trade.

[omahen]

I think Omahen has stars in his eyes for the player Dipo

I don't. I just think the value Dipo brings to this team, even if just for 2020/21, is greater than #18. Considering chances what Dipo will look like post injury and chances what we may actually get for #18.

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He's certainly not trending that way. 

He had 19 games post injury. So what trend are you speaking about?

Giving up assets on hopes and dreams for a 1 year rental just seems too risky as would offering him an extension in the trade.

So please, what would be your realistic best way to utilize #18?

[Mavs2019]

[cow]

I think Omahen has stars in his eyes for the player Dipo

I don't. I just think the value Dipo brings to this team, even if just for 2020/21, is greater than #18. Considering chances what Dipo will look like post injury and chances what we may actually get for #18.

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He's certainly not trending that way. 

He had 19 games post injury. So what trend are you speaking about?

Giving up assets on hopes and dreams for a 1 year rental just seems too risky as would offering him an extension in the trade.

So please, what would be your realistic best way to utilize #18?

And the 36 games prior to the injury?  Or the 4 seasons prior to his singular outlier statistical season?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pla...ivi01.html

Injury concerns + inconsistent career performance limit my desire to want to extend him. I'm not going to invest assets on what might be a one year rental unless that rental is for a can't miss difference maker.

[omahen]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...9820883968

Miami has a big question with Adebayo. First plan was they will not extend him this season but rather keep his low cap hold and do it next season, so they would have max player space and more in 2021. But, since he played so well, this tactic might be risky. So:
- extend him now or next year
- is he worth max?

If they sign him at anything over 25 per, 2021 max space dreams are basically gone. So unless Adebayo signs a really low contract, they can't sign Grant and keep 2021 max space (assuming Grant will want more than one year deal). Signing Grant in 2020 also means they are not able to resign Dragic or/and Crowder, unless they do some Olynik sign and trade for him.

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And the 36 games prior to the injury?  Or the 4 season prior to his singular outlier statistical season?

What was wrong with 36 games before injury? A bit worse than season before but far from average or bad. What was wrong with 4 seasons in OKC? Decent shooter, played defense next to Westbrook. If he puts up those numbers while guarding best opposing player on positions 1-3 and create some, he is exactly what we want. Probably not max money worth, but we can weight that options in 2021.

[cow]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...9820883968

Miami has a big question with Adebayo. First plan was they will not extend him this season but rather keep his low cap hold and do it next season, so they would have max player space and more in 2021. But, since he played so well, this tactic might be risky. So:
- extend him now or next year
- is he worth max?

If they sign him at anything over 25 per, 2021 max space dreams are basically gone. So unless Adebayo signs a really low contract, they can't sign Grant and keep 2021 max space (assuming Grant will want more than one year deal). Signing Grant in 2020 also means they are not able to resign Dragic or/and Crowder, unless they do some Olynik sign and trade for him.

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And the 36 games prior to the injury?  Or the 4 season prior to his singular outlier statistical season?

What was wrong with 36 games before injury? A bit worse than season before but far from average or bad. What was wrong with 4 seasons in OKC? Decent shooter, played defense next to Westbrook. If he puts up those numbers while guarding best opposing player on positions 1-3 and create some, he is exactly what we want. Probably not max money worth, but we can weight that options in 2021.

No one is saying he is bad.  He's a good player and in my mind comes with concerning question marks.  It's about his salary and future salary he'll demand compared to what he'll produce.  His stats after the outlier season show regression to the norm and his stats after his injury show further regression.  Your hope is that he can replicate that performance from his outlier season when nothing would indicate that is going to happen.  If it's a player we want and are on the last year of their deal, I'd need an extension to be comfortable.  His regression in play and injury concerns would make me uncomfortable offering an extension at this point.

[StepBackJay]

Couldn't tell if you were be serious or not on KP @"omahen" lol

[omahen]

If it's a player we want and are on the last year of their deal, I'd need an extension to be comfortable.

There is no extension. For any team. Part of the reason he is cheap. #18 is cheap. Plus Dallas doesn't want to give extension anyway, because this kills Giannis pipedream (plus all the risks involved with actually giving that extension). 

I don't think they are bringing anyone with longer than 2021 contract with the #18. So it is either a pick or an expiring - whatever you prefer. I prefer expiring, because I want them to be as good as possible in 2020/21. So that they really can sell themselves as a good FA destination. If something goes wrong in 2020, their FA pitch be much closer to the likes of Atlanta or Phoenix than to Miami or Toronto.