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For a variety of reasons, I'd like to start a John Collins thread.

1. Reporting we were interested in him at the TDL
2. Reporting we offered Maxi
3. Atlanta's seeming unwillingness to go beyond Jaylen Brown money
4. Schwartz

I'd like to concentrate here on the how since I wrote about the why in the Roster Thread (quick summary below):  

1.  Doesn't marginalize Brunson by adding another guard
2.  Provides an important role for Green (Defensive) by not adding another guard
3.  Is a significant upgrade from Maxi who can play next to KP or next to Powell/WCS because of his diverse skills
4.  Allows KP to play his preferred C position and still keep a second big on the floor
5.  Keeps a 20 a night big on the floor on nights KP sits
6.  Is a significant FA win and fulfills Donnie's prediction that outside shooting wings and PF's will want to play with Luka
7.  Lands what is arguably a third star

If you assume Kawhi and Chris Paul stay put, Collins is arguably the top of the 21 free agent class.  A number of teams with cap room need what he does...including Dallas.  I'd point out San Antonio, OKC, Charlotte and Miami.  Cleveland could get there by shipping off Nance for future picks to pair Collins with Jarrett Allen.  I'm leaving NY (Randall), Toronto (Siakam) and Memphis (JJJ) off this list, but they all have the room to do it also.  It is reasonable to argue Collins isn't worth a Max $28.1mm deal.  But reasonable isn't the GM for any NBA team with cap room.  Between SA and OKC, there is a pretty good chance someone will throw out the full max with the 4th year PO and a 15% trade kicker and up front payments (basically the worst thing possible for Atlanta to match).  

There are issues with all of those teams.  SA, OKC and Cleveland aren't very good and wouldn't be even with Collins.  Charlotte is on the rise, but Collins would play C there.  Plus, Charlotte would have to flush two Schwartz guys, Zeller and Monk, to create room.  Then you have Dallas and Miami...more attractive markets and more competitive rosters.  But, Collins is third fiddle on both.  Note that Collins went to HS in West Palm Beach.

There are two paths to Collins...make the offer and have him sign the offer sheet (at that point Atlanta is in control).  Or, negotiate a S&T before Collins signs an offer sheet with someone else.  You have to have the room to make the offer, so Dallas has to "renounce" Bird rights on THJ and JRich (assuming he opts out).  Miami has to "reject" the Team Option on Dragic.  I make the distinction because a team can un-renounce a player if things don't go their way.  I don't think Miami can "un-reject" its team option.  The other thing to bear in mind is the player has to want to go to a team to sign an offer sheet or agree to a S&T.  Atlanta is not in position to designate a preferred destination if they like Team A's S&T offer better than Team B's.  It is a game of chicken at that point.  Atlanta might love what OKC is offering in a S&T better than what Dallas is offering.  But they can't make Collins agree to go to OKC.  Atlanta's recourse is to say "go ahead and bring me an offer sheet", but with so many suitors, Collins (Schwartz) is likely to do so and then Atlanta is stuck.

Two other notes...because of the size of the raise, Collins has to go to a team with cap room (either buy signing the offer sheet or by S&T).  So, the list of suitors is finite.  Atlanta can't just say, man we'd look great if Boston would send us Jaylen Brown as BYC will kill that deal.  Second, I'm not sure the "they'll just sign him to trade him later" thing works necessarily.  A max for a guy who can't create his own shot is an over-pay and the overpay comes with unattractive features in the offer.  Plus, Atlanta has to take back $20-something million in salary.  They are probably better off taking what they can get in a S&T and keeping their powder dry.

I think Dallas and Miami are in the best position here.  Both can be contenders with that one more significant guy.  Dallas has the Schwartz connection and Miami has the home town thing.  It also helps that there are legitimate threats out there to deliver a max offer sheet if Atlanta doesn't negotiate a deal.  In a S&T situation, Dallas probably offers Maxi and Miami probably offers Achiuwa, who doesn't possess a 3 point shot at this point.  Miami can keep their holds on Robinson and Nunn, but not Dragic.  Dallas can probably retain THJ and WCS in a S&T with Maxi outgoing.  I don't know if Miami will prioritize Collins over a guard (they could sign Lowry outright and not send out Achiuwa).  But, I see them as a bigger threat than most of the other teams with room.  With that said, players like C. Wood and Grant opted for a bigger role on a bad team.

I think the play here is to "announce" agreement at 5:01 on 8/2, but not sign anything.  It can also work if another team "announces" agreement with Collins and Dallas then swoops in to save the day and provide Atlanta a S&T out before the agreement becomes a signed offer sheet.  If Dallas can do this as a Maxi based S&T, we are essentially moving on from JRich and Maxi in exchange for Collins.  That's quite a talent upgrade and Green can do a lot of what JRich does defensively.  The biggest issue appears to be defense, but Collins doesn't necessarily own that.  He's actually the sixth best PF in D-RPM this season if you trust that metric.  But, KP has to take some responsiblity for making this work.  He was once a good defender and suddenly wasn't.  Nothing says he can't suddenly regain that status.  If he could and if/when Green is ready to join DFS as a starter (does he really need to score on a unit with three 20-point scorers who can all hit from the outside?), this could be a good (not great) D and an historically good O.

Once Isaac got extended this was my main target and still is...

And yes I agree with the parts about Green...I get a sense he can play a role similar to DSteve and have a DFS level impact on hustle plays...

https://media.giphy.com/media/f8bi39QaEs.../giphy.gif

Love me some Schwartzgan analysis. But betting the Luka era on shipping out 2 of our 3 best defenders in exchange for a guy who doesn’t create his own shot and isn’t a known defensive commodity? I dunno.

For me for this offseason to be good is either Collins or top guard, unless we believe this team is great as it is (which will be judged in the playoffs). 

I agree it makes little sense for Atlanta in the long run to pay max or near max money for Collins. But they need something to save their face. I think only Kleber wouldn't be enough, one pick or young player would need to be included. But not more. It's actually even a question for Atlanta - if you get rid of Collins, do you want salary back at all? They can play Hunter as their PF. If they don't take Kleber, it would leave them with around 17 mil of cap space. 

Same dilema is for Mavs. If they keep Kleber they have excellent frontocourt rotation with Collins, Kleber and KP. Powell would be a bit redundant, but it is as it is. Kleber is far better fit with either Collins or KP than Powell. However, their is not a lot of possibility to improve at guard in this scenario. Brunson would have to be a starter, but we would need at least one reliable guard for rMLE. Would rMLE be enough for McConnel? I guess not. Ellington, Forbes, Bazemore, Nwaba or Galloway are all solid exception money options. All of them probably even below rMLE, perhaps BaE. Or we can go a bit younger with Ntilikina or Mikhailuk. I like Jordan McLauchlin from Minny as an under the radar option.

(05-16-2021, 11:14 AM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]Love me some Schwartzgan analysis. But betting the Luka era on shipping out 2 of our 3 best defenders in exchange for a guy who doesn’t create his own shot and isn’t a known defensive commodity? I dunno.

Good points.

Also, barring some MAJOR (and unexpected) development in the playoffs, we should expect that:
1 Josh Richardson exercises his player option, and
2 WCS's team option is exercised by the Mavs
I don't think either of those is a borderline decision, as we sit, so any planning without those in place feels awry.

In that context, a max-salaried Collins makes THJ impossible, unless there's a deal with trade matching applied.

But trade matching would be hard to do unless there were more players included. Simply "Collins for Maxi" isn't even close.

The point is, if you get Collins it is probably going to completely upend the roster, however you do it. And Collins, a player without a strong defensive presence, seems like the wrong target for the team's 3rd star, given the fact that both Luka and KP are more offensive forces and less impactful on defense.

I like Collins, but I really lean toward wanting to upgrade the playmaking more than anything. Luka gets so worn down, we need another guy that can facilitate the offense both with and without him. Earlier in the season I thought Brunson could be that guy, but he seemed to slow down once he started to garner more defensive attention, and we'll have to see if he can adjust to being that guy for 30 minutes a night. I think the playoffs may be very telling and could help push one way or another.

If it turns out Brunson is that guy, well that's great and you can then upgrade in the big department with Collins.

If Brunson is not that guy, however, then if you get Collins you've really limited how you're going to find that playmaking upgrade.  I think you'll have to use KP then, but the range of what he could bring back is so unpredictable. 

If you told me that signing Collins led to some domino effect where KP was moved and we ended up with Beal, Lavine, Jaylen Brown, etc then fantastic...but I also kind of doubt that would happen.

Another thing about Collins. He is also sort of an unicorn. His best offensive weapon is PnR but he is not a rim protector. So who is best frontcourt partner to pair with him. Healthy and defense playing KP is probably the best option, imho. But let's say he is damaged goods. Who is a rim defending, shooting, not rim running center that would complement Collins defensively and offensively? I can only think of Turner as an option. Duffy client.

(05-16-2021, 11:57 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]2 WCS's team option is exercised by the Mavs

Depends. If the Mavs really need to create the max amount of capspace they could easily do it and still keep WCS. Just offer him the BAE. He would lose 200k in year one but gets a guaranteed extra year.

(05-16-2021, 11:57 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Also, barring some MAJOR (and unexpected) development in the playoffs, I expect that:
1 Josh Richardson exercises his player option, and
2 WCS's team option is exercised by the Mavs

Why do you think that? Richardson market is easily at least full MLE, imho. So it would make sense to go for a short term prove it deal somewhere else if Mavs don't see him as primary option. I just don't see opt in as his only way.

As for WCS, I don't see his market being above his salary. He is way too inconsistent that anybody would see him as their starting center and teams rarely pay above vet min for deep bench bigs. So Mavs can easily reject his option and bring him back for exception money, if they wish so.

I just don´t see the defensive fit and I am at least somewhat sceptical when it comes to two high usage bigs in the same lineup. All in on Collins if KP is gone but assuming that KP stays I would prefer another wing/guard.

(05-16-2021, 12:06 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I just don´t see the defensive fit and I am at least somewhat sceptical when it comes to two high usage bigs in the same lineup. All in on Collins if KP is gone but assuming that KP stays I would prefer another wing/guard.

I look at it this way. Collins is arguably best young talent in this FA class. He raises our ceiling. If KP remains a problem, he will have to be traded in any case. If not, we have a good combo.

What are really the alternatives in this FA summer? Offer near max to Ball, one of the FA super vets (Lowry, Conley) or another questionable vet fit DeRozan? Which combination of middle of the pack guys makes one so certain it would bring more than marginally better result than keeping existing middle of the pack guys?

Josh Green is shooting 17% from three.

I love the way some of you guys can analyze basketball with facts and figures.  I always think that facts and figures get in the way of my basketball fantasy.  This might explain why some people call me a gambler, but I analyze by eye and off the cuff.

To wit: while I would like to see John Collins on the Mavs I think who ever ends up with Maxi next year will get a bargain.  It seems the covid episode and subsequent nagging injuries have hurt him a lot this year.  With a good off season I think Maxi will continue to improve next year.  Maxi DOES have room to improve and, I think, the ability to do so.

I also think the Mavs would be better off to consider trading Brunson while they can get something for him.  This is just my off the cuff rationalization, but I think Brunson is not happy with his role on the Mavs.  What would he look like with a starring, starting role?  He probably thinks he would look pretty good...

Ah...KP, KP.  When he's on the court he can do some good, sometimes great, things.  The problem is...nobody can keep him on the court.  When he does play he also messes up the "fit" the rest of the "team" has developed while he was tending an injury.  Does KP like playing second fiddle to Luka?  Nope.

Since this is the John Collins thread (and I want him!)...I'll stop right here.

After initially reading the OP, I went to work on a trade idea. I agree with a lot of the replies here about possible fit with KP and spending so much money on bigs and such, and I would really like to shore up the defense more on our team. I can't bring the trade home, but I think the framework is pretty solid.

KP to Sac for Bagley/Heild/Holmes SnT (not sure if it was answered definitively if SnT can be combined with other players)/Pick(s)

I think Sac needs more bodies in the trade but I think that is mostly solid return for them and their needs

Turner to Cha for Rozier

This could technically be a separate trade after or before the big trade, and I don't know whether or not Rozier's value is high enough for Turner, so not sure if there is more needed.

Hield/Kleber to Atl for Collins SnT

I think this is good value for Atl, maybe a bit high for them...they add a pick (second or 2) to go to a team lacking value like Ind

Bagley/Rozier/Picks to Ind for Brogdon/Turner

This one is mostly dependent on how they see Bagley fitting and improving their team overall and would definitely be the team needed to be coaxed into it more than others.

Holmes/Collins/Brogdon to Dal for KP/Kleber/other probably smaller value?

We might need to add something else in on the trade, a player or 2 and/or a pick or 2.

(05-16-2021, 12:05 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Why do you think that? Richardson market is easily at least full MLE, imho. So it would make sense to go for a short term prove it deal somewhere else if Mavs don't see him as primary option. I just don't see opt in as his only way.

As for WCS, I don't see his market being above his salary. He is way too inconsistent that anybody would see him as their starting center and teams rarely pay above vet min for deep bench bigs. So Mavs can easily reject his option and bring him back for exception money, if they wish so.

I say these things because I think they are DEFINITELY going to happen. You offer some thoughts, but I don't think they coming anywhere close to moving the needle in a different direction.

Yes, J Rich can probably get MLE if he's a free agent. But that's not going to entice him since his PO is well above MLE. He will keep what he has and see if he can create a better resume for 2022. While he does that, he makes more money.

WCS is a good player at a good price. With Covid in the rear view, he's likely to be used even more. Mavs will decide to leave well-enough alone.

(05-16-2021, 12:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]WCS is a good player at a good price. With Covid in the rear view, he's likely to be used even more. Mavs will decide to leave well-enough alone.

While I can take the JRich explanaiton I don't think this part is definite at all. As well enough as WCS has been, he is a third/fourth big for Mavs at best. There is absolutely no way a team would let such a player in a way of grand FA plans. Let's say Collins would be a target and 3 mil of cap space would be missing. Do you really think they would think twice before rejecting that WCS team option?

(05-16-2021, 12:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I say these things because I think they are DEFINITELY going to happen. You offer some thoughts, but I don't think they coming anywhere close to moving the needle in a different direction.

Yes, J Rich can probably get MLE if he's a free agent. But that's not going to entice him since his PO is well above MLE. He will keep what he has and see if he can create a better resume for 2022. While he does that, he makes more money.

WCS is a good player at a good price. With Covid in the rear view, he's likely to be used even more. Mavs will decide to leave well-enough alone.

I think these are currently the most probable outcomes by far. Probable/logical doesn't always happen though.

Outstanding write-up Dan...

As stated, Collins is the best available FA this summer.  If the Mavs have a shot at getting him they need to pull that trigger.  Then worry about fit the rest of the FA summer.  Hasn't the theme here been - this is the last summer to go big before Luka's money kicks-in.  So, plan 1A should be to get the best available FA possible.

Back to the agreement part.  If it can be announced as a S&T between ATL & DAL right after FA opens, why cant a 2nd S&T announcement come shortly after between NO & DAL - Ball for KP?  And we still have the rest of the summer to fill out the team.

(05-16-2021, 12:06 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I just don´t see the defensive fit

I think JC is a solid defender. 

But I think the issue is and always will be (as long as he is around) KP. If KP gets his act together, then JC is a good fit defensively. If KP doesn't then NO ONE solves the problem (as we have seen with poor Maxi).

(05-16-2021, 12:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]his PO is well above MLE

MLE: ~$9,500,000

PO: $11,615,328

I wouldn't consider that to be "well above" especially if he can get the security of more years. This may be his last big payday based on the way he is playing.