MavsBoard

(03-31-2021, 09:28 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]So two things get in the way of that: 1 - Powell 2 - KP.

You sign JC or RH to play WITH KP in the starting lineup and move Maxi to the bench. What JC/RH give the team is an elite roll man to do pick and roll with Luka while still being solid to good defensively. 

The Mavs need to be most concerned about getting a TALENT this offseason and then shuffling the rest of the roster accordingly. 

IMO JC and RH should be the two top targets because I am a broken record on this fact:

The Mavs need an ELITE pick and roll man alongside Luka.

(03-31-2021, 09:23 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]It'd have to be in the summer where the Mavs would just need to send out WCS or perhaps even Powell, and renounce either JRich or THJ's hold if my math is correct.  They can still keep Melli/1 of THJ/JRich/Reddick's hold and make the trade. 

If the Mavs were to make the trade today and the only pieces were

DAL: Kemba
BOS: Horford
OKC: Powell+WCS

Dallas would just need to free 6.8 mil to get under the hard cap/lose 16 mil in salary, which can theoretically be done by renouncing a single caphold. 

I could be totally wrong. Perhaps someone who's more well versed in intricacies of the CBA could chime in, but from where I'm standing it'd be relatively easy for the Mavs to get Kemba in the offseason. Though doing so would cap them out and it'd essentially be their last big move they can make without touching the core. 


You do have a point regarding rule no.1, but Ainge has had quite the tough track record recently in trades. And getting Kemba for peanuts would be about as low risk/high reward there'd be, and Kemba doesn't have the locker room cancer attitude that Rondo had.

I am not a CBA expert either. You would be dumping 15 mil in outgoing salary so that gives you 40 mil of cap space with releasing THJ's cap hold assuming J Rich opts in. If J Rich opts out or is moved then you free up another 11 mil or so.

I think there is a scenario depending on what number J Rich or THJ signs at where you could keep one of those guys plus get Kemba. The difference in dollars from Kemba (36) and Powell + WCS (11 + 4) is 21 mil that you need so make up one way or another.

The Mitchell Robinson talk is interesting.  In no way do I see him winding up in Dallas next year though.

If you catch him on the right night, he can look like a future defensive player of the year award winner.   Knicks fans love him.   Although he has had some injuries, fouls too much and has some up and down play and has not really "made the jump" yet.   The upside is clearly there though.

What makes it weird is the Knicks were supposedly sniffing around Drummond for a multiple year deal.  Drummond and Robinson can't play together.   Maybe it was a pure asset play by the Knicks.  But you think 3 years in the league, it would be a point where the Knicks were ready for Robinson to take his spot as a core member of the team.    Not look to tie salary into another stats producing center.  

Maybe there is more to the story.

I just don't see the Mavs interested in all any a starting big outside of Collins who they think is a star that can play alongside KP.

Assuming they don't get any traction there they will want a 3rd big that can upgrade/replace our WCS/Boban/Powell backup big committee that ate up almost 18 million dollars! this year and provided marginal production. Depending on how Melli plays its not out of the realm of possibility that he is in the mix there.

I expect the Mavs to be more focused on potential starting guards or wings than bigs.

(03-31-2021, 08:58 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]He is still scoring like 20 points a game. I know he has had rest games and whatnot because of his injury. I will be watching closely to see how he looks.

I wouldn't be against some kind of Kemba dump trade but knowing Ainge and how he has to win every trade, I think he is going to end up swapping Kemba for some other big contract player (not sure who?) or two at some point. Horford would be a candidate for that.

He's got accumulative numbers because Boston forces him to jack up shots almost by necessity, but he is at multi year lows across the board in TS%, PER, 3P%, eFG% that he hasn't seen since he was 24 years old.  History shows that declines in 30+ year old  6 foot guards rarely reverse.

(03-31-2021, 09:33 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]You sign JC or RH to play WITH KP in the starting lineup and move Maxi to the bench. What JC/RH give the team is an elite roll man to do pick and roll with Luka while still being solid to good defensively. 

The Mavs need to be most concerned about getting a TALENT this offseason and then shuffling the rest of the roster accordingly. 

IMO JC and RH should be the two top targets because I am a broken record on this fact:

The Mavs need an ELITE pick and roll man alongside Luka.

If this is the mindset, then you are probably better off trading KP in the offseason.  KP at the 5 is a unicorn.  KP at the 4 is a poor perimeter defender and a glorified 3 point specialist.  That is not a max player.  The only alternative is getting a big who can guard the perimeter, be an elite roll man and ideally stretch the floor occasionally.  Not a lot of guys fit that description.  Maybe Gordon?

(03-30-2021, 12:18 PM)Omega_Supreme Wrote: [ -> ]I agree I think Bey is going to be okay once he gets more reps. The game is not slow for him like it is for Green and Hinton right now. 

1. Josh Green 
2. Nate Hinton
3. Tyler Bey
3. Tyrell Terry 

Hinton's body movement and pace suggests he is NBA ready and can play. The real question is, are we going to approach a point where we have to decide between Hinton and Terry?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuB_Gs7QHHE

We have seen so little of the rookies that it is tough to really get a strong opinion on them.    Things can change quickly too.

Here are my rankings for their future's here:

1) Josh Green- I am less worried about his shooting (although this may be a mistake on my end), but my biggest concern is his finishing.   I like how hard he plays.  He looks like a good teammate.  It is also a good sign that him and Luka seem to have the start of a good relationship.   It may take him some time, but I will be disappointed if he does not have an every game role next year.  

2) Nate Hinton-  I hope the Mavs view him on what I think he can be.  He is not a great athlete and still needs to continue to develop all parts of his game, but I really think the Mavs found something.  I like how he carries himself on the bench.  He is involved and not scared to show emotion.   A little Raja Bell is what I envision at best case.  

3) Tyrell Terry-  I would rank him as # 2, but he has been away lately.   I also worry how he is going to force playing time.   The easiest way to force playing time is with defense or really force action when you enter the game.   I don't want to say Terry doesn't play hard, but he tends to  look like he is not urgent on the court.  So I am a little worried how he is going to force time and that could limit development.

4) Tyler Bey- A little older for a rookie.  For me, Bey and Hinton are tough to evaluate until you see how they fit with really good players.  Both are guys who will not have plays run for them (at least not yet).   So it is how they find ways to be productive and be smart when they are not being counted on to generate points.    It is tough to explain.  when you see it though, it is pretty easy to see if they have it or not.

(03-31-2021, 09:49 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]If this is the mindset, then you are probably better off trading KP in the offseason.

A few thoughts:

1) I am on the record saying the Mavs SHOULD trade KP this offseason. Unless KP starts playing a two-man game with Luka regularly and well then my opinion will not change.

2) Even if they choose to keep KP, they desperately need an elite roll man next to Luka.

3) RH has the feet and athleticism to guard on the perimeter better than KP can, so RH can functionally be the "4" on D.

Check out RH's athletic ability on the perimeter checking Donovon Mitchell at the end of the game. He has a lot of growth for fundamentals still, but the raw ability on the perimeter is there.


https://player.vimeo.com/video/372138228?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

(03-31-2021, 09:54 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]We have seen so little of the rookies that it is tough to really get a strong opinion on them.    Things can change quickly too.

Here are my rankings for their future's here:

1) Josh Green- I am less worried about his shooting (although this may be a mistake on my end), but my biggest concern is his finishing.   I like how hard he plays.  He looks like a good teammate.  It is also a good sign that him and Luka seem to have the start of a good relationship.   It may take him some time, but I will be disappointed if he does not have an every game role next year.  

2) Nate Hinton-  I hope the Mavs view him on what I think he can be.  He is not a great athlete and still needs to continue to develop all parts of his game, but I really think the Mavs found something.  I like how he carries himself on the bench.  He is involved and not scared to show emotion.   A little Raja Bell is what I envision at best case.  

3) Tyrell Terry-  I would rank him as # 2, but he has been away lately.   I also worry how he is going to force playing time.   The easiest way to force playing time is with defense or really force action when you enter the game.   I don't want to say Terry doesn't play hard, but he tends to  look like he is not urgent on the court.  So I am a little worried how he is going to force time and that could limit development.

4) Tyler Bey- A little older for a rookie.  For me, Bey and Hinton are tough to evaluate until you see how they fit with really good players.  Both are guys who will not have plays run for them (at least not yet).   So it is how they find ways to be productive and be smart when they are not being counted on to generate points.    It is tough to explain.  when you see it though, it is pretty easy to see if they have it or not.

Thing with me on Terry is he is really going to have to do something extremely, extremely well on offense to compensate for the defense.    I'm not sure what plus skill he is going to have on offense other than spot up shooting.    So just shooting 38% on 3P% is not going to be enough for him.   He is going to have to be like Seth Curry good, and that's a really high hurdle to clear.

(03-31-2021, 10:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]A few thoughts:

1) I am on the record saying the Mavs SHOULD trade KP this offseason. Unless KP starts playing a two-man game with Luka regularly and well then my opinion will not change.

2) Even if they choose to keep KP, they desperately need an elite roll man next to Luka.

3) RH has the feet and athleticism to guard on the perimeter better than KP can, so RH can functionally be the "4" on D.

Yeah, I guess we just have different priorities.  I'm not convinced having an elite roll man is any better for Luka offensively than a 5 out situation as long as all four guys provide decent spacing.  I think Maxi is working really well as a complement big to KP, and my bigger concern is the wasteland behind those two guys.  

To me, the spot we really need to upgrade on the starting lineup is DFS.  Not only is he hurting us on spacing, but we really need somebody that can play make and ideally create for themselves a little bit to finish with Luka and lead the second unit.  The are some guys that can fill that role in free agency, but unfortunately they are all in their 30s.

(03-30-2021, 08:33 PM)MFFL Wrote: [ -> ]Josh Howard was drafted in 2003

Kids born in 2003 have graduated high school since the last time Donnie had a hit at the end of the first round

Haha I know, I just couldn't pass up the chance for a JHo reference.

(03-30-2021, 08:59 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I had always been on the side of operating over the cap, but that was under the assumption that they trade Johnson for a future tradeable contract or at least someone they would want to re-sign (Fournier).  Now that that ship has sailed, if they operate over the cap their best option is to re-sign THJ and JRich and sign a quality big with the MLE (Holmes, Millsap, Green?).  That is not terribly exciting.  Maybe you make a trade with some combination of Brunson/Powell/WCS/picks to get a starter who can distribution and create for themselves a little bit.  Not sure that is enough assets and/or salary to get done what we would want.

If we go the cap space route, it seems like the options are:

Jrue Holiday (max).  This means no THJ or JRich or MLE and the Bucks probably keep him anyways
Kyle Lowry (2/25).  Prolly can't fit either THJ or JRich (unless he opts in) but would have cap slightly more than MLE
Mike Conley (2/20).  Should be able to keep one of THJ/JRich.  Does Utah let him go?
Demar DeRozan (3/20).  Should be able to keep one of THJ/JRich.  Makes most sense as 6th man.  Does he want to do that?

I'm ignoring restricted as that's a fools game (I hope we don't do something stupid like max Collins).  If we can't land one of these 4, we are probably better off re-signing the guys we currently have and getting what we can with the MLE.

This is a really good breakdown of the options fit wise and financially.  Conley seems the most vulnerable given how much money Utah has committed elsewhere.  I can't imagine Jrue leaving or Lowry and DeRozan wanting to come here but they'd all be pretty good fits, I'm just not going to get my hopes up about them.

(03-31-2021, 10:26 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]To me, the spot we really need to upgrade on the starting lineup is DFS.  Not only is he hurting us on spacing, but we really need somebody that can play make and ideally create for themselves a little bit to finish with Luka and lead the second unit. 

I 100% agree that DFS needs to be upgraded, but you are right my priority would be different if I were GM. I would want an elite roll man for Luka first and then upgrade DFS later.

(03-31-2021, 10:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]A few thoughts:

1) I am on the record saying the Mavs SHOULD trade KP this offseason. Unless KP starts playing a two-man game with Luka regularly and well then my opinion will not change.

2) Even if they choose to keep KP, they desperately need an elite roll man next to Luka.

3) RH has the feet and athleticism to guard on the perimeter better than KP can, so RH can functionally be the "4" on D.

I think 1 and 2 are probably the same thing. If KP develops a good 2 man game with Luka, he probably becomes an elite roll man too.

Let me have another try at roster construction. I assume Luka and KP stay. I think we should stay with the focus on defense, so options for starting five should not represent a clear downgrade in that department. These are the roles this team needs around them imho:
1. Luka
2. 3-D, ideally he should be also able to create. Candidates: Ball, Schroeder, JRich. Pipedream is JRue. Not really many options, everything else is either old expensive guys or meh options like Monk. Trent? Flyer on THT? - all RFA will be overpaid... Brunson?
3. 3-D. Candidates: OPJ, DFS. OPJ could be probably had cheap. 
4. 3-D, roll man if possible. Collins is ideal imho. I don't see Markannen as an option, although he would be gettable. Kleber seems like a lock to stay
5. KP
6. 6th man, guard, wing back up - THJ. It makes sense to keep him if his contract will be reasonable. He is really great last two seasons, especially this one. Many other viable options: Fournier, Trent, Hart, THT, McDermott
7. 3rd big. Tough guy, plays defense, rebounds. Theiss, JaMychal Green. Or a good 3 point shooter. Olynyk. DJ Wilson could be a cheap option, always liked the guy, I think he just never got a chance
8. Back-up PG (if 2 is not creator): McConell. Love the guy, he would be awesome for this team. We need his mentality
9. starting to don't care at this point

One issue Mavs need to solve is the guard. As you can see from description, Brunson doesn't really fit anywhere. He doesn't have enough D to be 2 imho, he is really focusing too much on himself to be number 8. Number 6 perhaps? If yes, number 8 has to be a bigger guy like DFS or OPJ. If JRich is not an answer at 2, Ball looks like best candidate. But if we sign him, we might be too short for THJ as only some 12 mil of our cap space would be left. This should be enough for someone like OPJ.

Powell has to be traded for someone productive if we want to compete. Especially if Mavs salary will only be 112 mil of cap, we can't afford to have 10 mil of mostly dead salary. Trade him for productive 12 mil salary. SnT is possible (third team involved if needed). Bunch of guys named up there could be had for up to 12 min per, but probably none of them could be had for mini MLE. 

Version 1: Luka, Brunson, DFS, Collins, KP, THJ, Theiss or Olynyk (SnT Powell), mini MLE (pipedream Mcconell)
Version 2: Luka, Ball, OPJ, Kleber, KP, Brunson, Theiss or Olynyk (SnT Powell, mini MLE perhaps?), DFS

(03-31-2021, 10:26 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]To me, the spot we really need to upgrade on the starting lineup is DFS.  Not only is he hurting us on spacing, but we really need somebody that can play make and ideally create for themselves a little bit to finish with Luka and lead the second unit.  The are some guys that can fill that role in free agency, but unfortunately they are all in their 30s.

I'm with this, only I don't think it's ONLY about DFS. 

Both DFS and Richardson have been disappointing this year offensively, and neither is shooting well. I keep expecting DFS to come out of the slump and every once in awhile I think he has. He hasn't been as bad as people make him out to be here, but he's definitely not shooting like prime Danny Green, Bowen, whoever (winning 3&D types). Richardson is a bit more versatile than DFS, but honestly I feel like he needs to shoot off the catch better, too. 

It's unrealistic to replace both in one season, imo, so if I'm the Mavs, I bet on one of those two to improve next year and replace the other. And, I'd wait until the end of the season to decide so I can make the best choice possible.

Looking long-term, I could see a likelihood of the Mavs signing both THJ and Richardson and then using the Full MLE as an above the cap team. Truly I don't see a way where relinquishing rights on a player to chase the white rabbit in FA makes us a better team, but I CAN see where that could hurt our asset accumulation greatly...

(03-31-2021, 09:15 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Let me trim this list down for you. Jokic, Beal, Embiid are not going to make it to FA. We have to pray for everything to crumble around Jokic for him to want out or that he is such BFFs with Luka that they decide to team up. It's a situation to monitor for sure but I will not get my hopes up.

The other guys aren't really needle movers for me outside of Brogdon who I like. He will be 30 by then and has had injury issues so he is definitely not on the Jokic, Embiid tier of players.

The main point I was trying to make was that it isn't the end of the world if we don't sign anyone this summer. I'm not in the "We need to get a superstar before Luka's max kicks in" camp. The core that the Mavs have now isn't going to get you a championship(At least not in this competition: Nets, Lakers,...). Sometimes it's just better to stick with the team you have, and wait till your assets get more value.

If we can sign THJ, Brunson, DFS to team friendly deals, you do that without thinking. I also think that all of those guys are going to resign here(and all of them are going to be good value contracts(I'm no nostradamus, but I have a good feeling when it comes to that).

I just don't se any free agent that would be a gamechanger this year. Collins, Ball, Holmes don't make the Mavs contenders. If they are signed to a friendly deal, OK, but overpaying them would be a bullet in your own leg IMO.

The Mavs are not, and neither should they be, in win now mode. For example, if you trade KP now, you won't get what he's worth. If he plays out, stays healthy and adds a bit to his game, then you can extend him when he's eligible. If he doesn't pan out, then in 2023 he can either: 
a) Opt in and be a huge expiring contract that you can trade(together with all the pick)
b) Opt out and you have 36 mil in capspace
You also have Powell's 11 mil off the books, and all the picks to trade(If a disaster doesn't happen). By then, the Mavs will have either capspace or assets to get a true gamechanger. Oh and Luka will only be 24 years old!

Sometimes it's better to be patient and smart

(03-31-2021, 10:06 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Check out RH's athletic ability on the perimeter checking Donovon Mitchell at the end of the game. He has a lot of growth for fundamentals still, but the raw ability on the perimeter is there.


https://player.vimeo.com/video/372138228?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

He can certainly move his feet better than Powell. I don't see any issues in the fit with KP. My main concern is that his price tag is going through the roof.

https://twitter.com/ivanowskinba/status/...8724833281