(05-15-2023, 02:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Ayton would be such a huge mistake. It’s making me nervous that so many fans are talking about adding him.
Bad players on huge contracts aren’t the answer.
But is Kyrie on a huge contract any better?
Like if the option is no Kyrie but Ayton +Stuff vs. Kyrie on a max and merry minimums that we hope can exceed their contract value I choose option A.
(05-15-2023, 03:07 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]But is Kyrie on a huge contract any better?
Like if the option is no Kyrie but Ayton +Stuff vs. Kyrie on a max and merry minimums that we hope can exceed their contract value I choose option A.
Not excited about the Kyrie trade or his incoming max, and I’m on the record (belligerently) about both. But, if given the choice between him and Ayton, give me Kyrie 20/20 times, even with the age and possibility for off-court drama.
I wouldn’t want Ayton as anything more than a sub-MLE backup big. He’s just not very good. The evidence is right there, anytime we watch the Suns play, it’s just that people are stubbornly holding onto his name value because he was a #1 pick.
Just my opinion, of course.
(05-15-2023, 03:16 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Not excited about the Kyrie trade or his incoming max, and I’m on the record (belligerently) about both. But, if given the choice between him and Ayton, give me Kyrie 20/20 times, even with the age and possibility for off-court drama.
I wouldn’t want Ayton as anything more than a sub-MLE backup big. He’s just not very good. The evidence is right there, anytime we watch the Suns play, it’s just that people are stubbornly holding onto his name value because he was a #1 pick.
Just my opinion, of course.
For me it´s not about the draft hype. More about the 20/21 playoff run. For a short stretch he flashed the potential to be the perfect modern defender. Banging in the post against Jokic and holding him to sub 50% from the field (only 53% TS). Switching onto various wings/guards to cover for Booker´s and Paul´s mediocre on ball defense.
Wouldn´t give up #10 but if it comes down to Kyrie vs Ayton I would love to move on from Kyrie and avoid the likely crash and burn scenario.
(05-17-2023, 05:41 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/statu...8987358224
If Harden signs somewhere else Philly is another possible destination for Kyrie via sign&trade.
Chris Haynes (who is tight with Chris Paul) reports Phoenix will guarantee CP3's contract and he will be the starting PG for the Suns next season. Hardin opens a Kyrie possibility and Phoenix closes one.
I get that Kyrie is an east coast guy, but is Philly and their tin man center really better than Dallas? And, what is the return? If CP stays in Phoenix, the Kyrie/Ayton/Harden deal seems nearly impossible. Harden to Houston creates a monster TPE. Trading Kyrie to Philly would then create a monster TPE for Dallas. It might be more valuable to have than the cap space not having Kyrie would create. Philly has no real advantage on Harden in terms of a fifth year because of his age.
NBA Front Office Podcast today just said the most sure fire pick to be traded amongst the lottery teams is.....Dallas.
"House Money" Nico going to spend that asset.
Almost assuredly we're going to keep Kyrie on a massive deal and we're going to trade the 10th pick for a veteran in the final year or 2 of his deal
We'll see how that goes. At some point the logical deals have to work out right? Right?!? (I use "logical" kind of loosely here since that Kyrie deal is going to be hideous, but we kind of have to keep him now. No chance we get a comparable player back in a S&T)
DanSchwartzgan Wrote:Chris Haynes (who is tight with Chris Paul) reports Phoenix will guarantee CP3's contract and he will be the starting PG for the Suns next season. Hardin opens a Kyrie possibility and Phoenix closes one.
I get that Kyrie is an east coast guy, but is Philly and their tin man center really better than Dallas? And, what is the return? If CP stays in Phoenix, the Kyrie/Ayton/Harden deal seems nearly impossible. Harden to Houston creates a monster TPE. Trading Kyrie to Philly would then create a monster TPE for Dallas. It might be more valuable to have than the cap space not having Kyrie would create. Philly has no real advantage on Harden in terms of a fifth year because of his age.
NBA Front Office Podcast today just said the most sure fire pick to be traded amongst the lottery teams is.....Dallas.
CP3 source says CP3 is in PHX to stay? Consider the source. IMO, CP3 and Ayton are gone. NOLA makes a lot of sense for CP3.
IMO the best destinations for Kyrie are teams that who fired their coach. Sixers, Suns, Raptors, and Bucks.
I think the only road forward to contender for Dallas is to keep Kyrie. I think SnT would bring back much less value than Mavs paid for Kyrie and since the Mavs assets were limited before that, I just don't see a way for Mavs to recover from there in the Luka window. Years of mistakes would be just too much. I am not convinced Luka will wait for his supermax and suffer through 3 more seasons like last one. I think he is way too competitive for that. I understand some have different opinion and that is fine. But personally I am not convinced.
If Mavs don't keep Kyrie, the risk of Luka wanting out increases dramatically, imho. This is the road Mavs chose. I am sure they were aware of all risks related to Kyrie but felt pressured to make the deal anyway. In this light all SnT discussions are theoretical, imho. Mavs have zero interest in this and it happens only if Kyrie just rejects Dallas. We can discuss endlessly if Kyrie is the right way, but personally I don't see much point in that. It is a fact. In my opinion, Mavs have a max 2 year window to construct a contender, which requires a very positive result already in year 1. Everything else means trouble. All signs point that Mavs have this way of thinking, so I expect the strategy will be a very short term thinking. Bring in players that can help now. I am sure Mavs will spin their outcome when they fail in their primary goal as the best possible result, but I will not be fooled
I said before, personally, this is the last offseason Mavs get from me. If they fail, I stop watching and wasting time. Mavs need a center and a PF. I expect a clear cut starter on one of the positions. Someone established, someone that would show that Mavs office actually has any competence at all, since all I have watched so far were 4 years of failures. With the other player I could be more lenient, but I really need to see at least one win. I have no interest to support incompetence.
Mavs get: Olynyk, #16 and #28
Jazz get: Bertans and #10
Mavs save $ and get Lively at 16 and a wing at 28
Then use the MLE on a Mcdaniels type guy
I just noticed. When did they do away with the "Likes"? You can't compliment anyone for their posts anymore?
Was reading some of Cato's stuff on The Athletic and his contention a trade down is likely. He also mentions in one recent article that Bertans is probably gone. I've posted several trade down scenarios where we pay SA to take Bertans because the Spurs are the only team with cap space at this time. Turns out there is another place Bertans could go in a draft related deal.
Brooklyn has an $18mm TPE from the KD trade. It is the largest current TPE. They also have 21 and 22. I don't want to trade down for the sake of saving money. However, 10 for 21 (22 remains with Brooklyn to compensate for taking Bertans) creates a new $16mm TPE for Dallas. I know, I know, most large TPE's go unused. I don't do it unless I have a use for the TPE, but this might be a season where it is more useful than most.
1. Is there a S&T at $16mm that can't get done with only the MLE? Boston has a ton of committed salary already. Grant Williams (Duffy) probably lands in this area. Williams into the Bertans TPE in a S&T creates an exception for Boston. Maybe they like that more than paying the $20mm per that Williams reportedly wants. PJ Washington is another example of a player in this price range.
2. Can you use the TPE to help a high salary team move a player? Players like Zubac, Covington and Batum come to mind here. NY is also a high salary team and may want to shed some salary to make a larger deal. Mitchell Robinson fits into the Bertans TPE. Obviously cap room teams can perform the same function, so this option seems less valuable.
3. Can you use the Bertans savings to use the Full MLE and just keep the TPE in your pocket until a later date. You'd only get the exception up to the first apron as the MLE would hard cap you, but there might be some nice salaries dumped at the TDL.
I don't love a lot of this, but if I knew I could land what is essentially Williams (or PJ) and #21 for #10 and Bertans, that fills a need and you still have one of the MLE's depending on how other things play out. Some of the raw prospects that are getting some mention at #10 will still be there at #21.
(05-18-2023, 06:09 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs get: Olynyk, #16 and #28
Jazz get: Bertans and #10
Mavs save $ and get Lively at 16 and a wing at 28
Then use the MLE on a Mcdaniels type guy
Works for me.
I think Orlando is a team to watch. Not with their main guys but their guys on the edges. Issac is one but he is tricky. Chuma Okeke is another one. He is still young but has been hurt and it caught in a numbers game. Bol Bol has a low salary but if Orlando adds two more young players he could find himself with limited minutes. I even like free agent Mo Wagner. Sort of a goofy player but he plays hard and pisses other teams off.
(05-18-2023, 06:09 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs get: Olynyk, #16 and #28
Jazz get: Bertans and #10
Mavs save $ and get Lively at 16 and a wing at 28
Then use the MLE on a Mcdaniels type guy
I like Olynyk, but he just doesn't fit with Mavs need, as his defense is really bad. So, I am not sure what Mavs accomplish here. They give their best asset for a hope of two scores on picks that will most likely not be able to become a serious contributor in year 1, a very similar player to Bertans regarding the value to their team, and a little bit of savings. But not enough of savings to make a difference. If this kind of deal is best Mavs could do, I would prefer the BKN version with Bertans for O'Neale, salary filler and their two late picks (21 and 22). I think O'Neale is a much better fit for what Mavs need, while they would still be able to draft two guys.
(05-18-2023, 03:06 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think the only road forward to contender for Dallas is to keep Kyrie. I think SnT would bring back much less value than Mavs paid for Kyrie and since the Mavs assets were limited before that, I just don't see a way for Mavs to recover from there in the Luka window. Years of mistakes would be just too much. I am not convinced Luka will wait for his supermax and suffer through 3 more seasons like last one. I think he is way too competitive for that. I understand some have different opinion and that is fine. But personally I am not convinced.
If Mavs don't keep Kyrie, the risk of Luka wanting out increases dramatically, imho. This is the road Mavs chose. I am sure they were aware of all risks related to Kyrie but felt pressured to make the deal anyway. In this light all SnT discussions are theoretical, imho. Mavs have zero interest in this and it happens only if Kyrie just rejects Dallas. We can discuss endlessly if Kyrie is the right way, but personally I don't see much point in that. It is a fact. In my opinion, Mavs have a max 2 year window to construct a contender, which requires a very positive result already in year 1. Everything else means trouble. All signs point that Mavs have this way of thinking, so I expect the strategy will be a very short term thinking. Bring in players that can help now. I am sure Mavs will spin their outcome when they fail in their primary goal as the best possible result, but I will not be fooled
I said before, personally, this is the last offseason Mavs get from me. If they fail, I stop watching and wasting time. Mavs need a center and a PF. I expect a clear cut starter on one of the positions. Someone established, someone that would show that Mavs office actually has any competence at all, since all I have watched so far were 4 years of failures. With the other player I could be more lenient, but I really need to see at least one win. I have no interest to support incompetence.
I think you are spot on when it comes to the Mavs point of view. Get the best possible outcome next season. And in my opinion that is the problem. You cannot undo years of incompetence and bad decisions in a single offseason. There is no shortcut. You cannot skip basic roster building moves. And any attempt to do so will only make things worse.
(05-18-2023, 07:25 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Was reading some of Cato's stuff on The Athletic and his contention a trade down is likely. He also mentions in one recent article that Bertans is probably gone. I've posted several trade down scenarios where we pay SA to take Bertans because the Spurs are the only team with cap space at this time. Turns out there is another place Bertans could go in a draft related deal.
Brooklyn has an $18mm TPE from the KD trade. It is the largest current TPE. They also have 21 and 22. I don't want to trade down for the sake of saving money. However, 10 for 21 (22 remains with Brooklyn to compensate for taking Bertans) creates a new $16mm TPE for Dallas. I know, I know, most large TPE's go unused. I don't do it unless I have a use for the TPE, but this might be a season where it is more useful than most.
1. Is there a S&T at $16mm that can't get done with only the MLE? Boston has a ton of committed salary already. Grant Williams (Duffy) probably lands in this area. Williams into the Bertans TPE in a S&T creates an exception for Boston. Maybe they like that more than paying the $20mm per that Williams reportedly wants. PJ Washington is another example of a player in this price range.
2. Can you use the TPE to help a high salary team move a player? Players like Zubac, Covington and Batum come to mind here. NY is also a high salary team and may want to shed some salary to make a larger deal. Mitchell Robinson fits into the Bertans TPE. Obviously cap room teams can perform the same function, so this option seems less valuable.
3. Can you use the Bertans savings to use the Full MLE and just keep the TPE in your pocket until a later date. You'd only get the exception up to the first apron as the MLE would hard cap you, but there might be some nice salaries dumped at the TDL.
I don't love a lot of this, but if I knew I could land what is essentially Williams (or PJ) and #21 for #10 and Bertans, that fills a need and you still have one of the MLE's depending on how other things play out. Some of the raw prospects that are getting some mention at #10 will still be there at #21.
I like the general idea. Only, teams doing the SnT will want to get compensated, imho. I know teams were paying for creation of TP before, but this was in cases where player chose to walk to a cap space team. In this case, I think they would consider they are the ones doing Mavs a favor, since Mavs can't sign their guy without their cooperation.
Williams and PJ are both good ideas. Although Williams in this case wouldn't get 20 mil with Dallas, as the TPE would be lower.
I don't see any scenario where NY would just dump Robinson. They also have team option on Rose and can very easily go well below the tax line while still having tradeable contracts.
(05-18-2023, 07:41 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think you are spot on when it comes to the Mavs point of view. Get the best possible outcome next season. And in my opinion that is the problem. You cannot undo years of incompetence and bad decisions in a single offseason. There is no shortcut. You cannot skip basic roster building moves. And any attempt to do so will only make things worse.
I can agree with that. But, I think Mavs are under big pressure from either Luka directly or his representation. For example, I don't think those Utah interest rumors are there just by chance. They have a top 5 player and they are wasting his years. I don't think they have a luxury of building patiently, they wasted that option while it was certainly there. There is also zero guarantee that the slow way would actually be successful.
I am affraid, Luka will be out of Dallas in 3-4 years max, no matter the results in this period. I can't see Irving stay committed (sane) for longer than one or two years and his trade value will be likely very low due to his age and size of his contract. So whatever Mavs do, they will not build a long term contender. Their chance is a quick title, then things will likely start getting worse with Luka eventually going out. However, the alternative is probably only, that Luka goes out quicker and Mavs can start from scratch.
(05-18-2023, 07:07 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]I just noticed. When did they do away with the "Likes"? You can't compliment anyone for their posts anymore?
Thank you for saying that.
(05-18-2023, 07:56 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I can agree with that. But, I think Mavs are under big pressure from either Luka directly or his representation. For example, I don't think those Utah interest rumors are there just by chance. They have a top 5 player and they are wasting his years. I don't think they have a luxury of building patiently, they wasted that option while it was certainly there. There is also zero guarantee that the slow way would actually be successful.
I am affraid, Luka will be out of Dallas in 3-4 years max, no matter the results in this period. I can't see Irving stay committed (sane) for longer than one or two years and his trade value will be likely very low due to his age and size of his contract. So whatever Mavs do, they will not build a long term contender. Their chance is a quick title, then things will likely start getting worse with Luka eventually going out. However, the alternative is probably only, that Luka goes out quicker and Mavs can start from scratch.
But isn´t this fallacy exactly what caused them to be in a desperate situation. The Mavs always find an excuse not to be patient...
Dirk is in his last few seasons. Mavs have to find a way to win one more time with him. Need to add vets and delay the rebuild.
Luka is looking like an all time great in his rookie season. Mavs don´t have time to rebuild. He is ready to compete right now. Lets find the best possible second option and go for it. Trade for KP.
Mavs made the WCF. Brunson left. Just need to find an replacement for Brunson. Trade for Irving. Mavs miss the playoffs.
If the Mavs continue to waste Luka´s prime he is going to leave. They need to make another win-now move.
...it´s always the same story.
(05-18-2023, 08:36 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]But isn´t this kind of logic exactly the kind of fallacy that caused them to be in a desperate situation. The Mavs always find an excuse not to be patient...
Dirk is in his last few seasons. Mavs have to find a way to win one more time with him. Need to add vets and delay the rebuild.
Luka is looking like an all time great in his rookie season. Mavs don´t have time to rebuild. He is ready to compete right now. Lets find the best possible second option and go for it. Trade for KP.
Mavs made the WCF. Brunson left. Just need to find an replacement for Brunson. Trade for Irving. Mavs miss the playoffs.
If the Mavs continue to waste Luka´s prime he is going to leave. They need to make another win-now move.
...it´s always the same story.
Mavs are making excuses, of course. But years with Luka on rookie deal were the exact time they could be building patiently. I have no idea why they signed DAJ in his rookie season instead of using the cap space for more assets. Rumor was Atlanta wanted to dump Bazemore instead of getting the pick, for example. They dumped Barnes for cap space and did nothing with it. Always looking for short term solution. But I would be even ok with quick building, if they would be actually successful doing it. Unfortunately, it was just a series of failures.