2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

Makes sense. He's from SoFlo. They have capspace.  They need another guard. 

Though he doesn't fit as seamlessly as Kyle Lowry. 

Also if they're interested in THJ, what does that make of Duncan Robinson?  Are the Heat interested in a Robinson for THJ swap? Maybe throw Dragic in there? 

I'd love that.

I doubt the Heat could fit Lowry and THJ. Robinson has a low cap hold so I imagine they will resign him regardless. Heat could try to operate over the cap by sending Dragic, Iggy back to Raptors but I don't see why the Raps would do that. Even they did some kind of Herro + Dragic deal, there's just not enough money for THJ. THJ is for sure an above MLE level player. Now if Lowry falls through then anything can happen.

[StepBackJay]

The Mavs offer seems to be in the right ballpark. His agent pushing for a little more

What do you think the Mavs will offer?

[StepBackJay]

Also if they're interested in THJ, what does that make of Duncan Robinson? 

I'd like DR for THJ but why would Heat do that if they can just sign THJ outright? Are they able to used DR's low cap hold to S&T him for a salary that matches THJ's incoming salary? That's the only way I could see that being possible bc then they could have Lowry and THJ. I don't know enough ab S&T's to know if that's legal.

[Mapka]

What do you think the Mavs will offer?

He will ask for his current salary for 3 years and they will accept.

Maybe ..  something ... TO/PO .. garantee something... frontloaded/backloaded ... bonus for 3% or title...

[Scott41theMavs]

He will ask for his current salary for 3 years and they will accept.

Maybe ..  something ... TO/PO .. garantee something... frontloaded/backloaded ... bonus for 3% or title...

Hurl.

THJ is a sixth man. He can't start on a Luka-led team because defense. That applies whether or not KP 1) gets his defense back or 2) gets traded. Still can't start THJ. If he comes back for his current salary or more, it's a major binary front office fail.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

He's not super high on my list but goes into the sort of Dragic-tier bin of backup plans.

I'd rather have Dragic.  He's a gamer despite his age.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

If he comes back for his current salary or more, it's a major binary front office fail.

Things could go much worse.  We could decide to not re-sign him and be caught with our pants down as we usually are in free agency.

[SleepingHero]

I'd like DR for THJ but why would Heat do that if they can just sign THJ outright? Are they able to used DR's low cap hold to S&T him for a salary that matches THJ's incoming salary? That's the only way I could see that being possible bc then they could have Lowry and THJ. I don't know enough ab S&T's to know if that's legal.

I'm not sure why the Head would do that. Just trying to align the pieces with the rumor. Doesn't make sense for the Heat to have both THJ and Robinson on the roster with Jimmy Butler and Herro. Especially if they're gunning for Lowry.

Perhaps there's a route where we get Robinson+Dragic in a complicated double SnT and in doing so it lets the Heat also get Lowry.

This is pure conjecture by the way! I don't know if this is legal or even necessary. But makes sense for both teams.

[dirkfansince1998]

The THJ situation is difficult and requires some creativity. With bird rights the Mavs could offer him a bigger raise per year than any other team.
Quick example. Mavs offering 15m first year with max raise. 3/48.6m. Any other team offering 15m first year. 3/47.25m. Also cannot forget the lack of state income taxes.
Mavs also have to think about the longterm cap. This offseason will be the last one before Doncic gets his max. Most likely the last chance to make changes with capspace for quite some time. If Cuban is willing to pay the tax (nearly impossible to max Doncic and keep DFS + Brunson next summer without it) and THJ wants to stay they could also come to some kind of agreement. THJ signs a smaller one year deal (11-12m) and gets a bigger 2-3 year deal in 2022. Obviously requires a lot of trust on both sides.
For example: 1/11 followed by 2/40. Same money as a three year deal that starts in the 16-17m range. Completly legal even if the Mavs are over the cap.

[StepBackJay]

For now I am sticking with the 13-18 mil range based on recent player comps. Obv so much depends on his playoff performance. If he hits 8 3's one game, well then his price tag could be going up.

[dirkfansince1998]

For now I am sticking with the 13-18 mil range based on recent player comps. Obv so much depends on his playoff performance. If he hits 8 3's one game, well then his price tag could be going up.

Sounds strange but I am a littie bit afraid of a big THJ series. He averaged 21/3/3 on 69% TS in may. If he is anywhere close to those numbers he can expect a big payday.
I want the Mavs to win but I also want to keep THJ on a reasonable deal. Could have avoided the entire situation with an early extension but the Mavs probably have bigger plans.

[StepBackJay]

One thing I want to circle back to is a DeMar DeRozan signing. I have been off this bandwagon for a while simply bc I think Mavs and DeRozan won't see a fit. I don't think its likely and I haven't seen the Mavs linked to DR any time recently but it's something I will keep an eye on. I still think their plan A is John Collins + THJ for now.

[StepBackJay]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2943...ge-paydays

"Dallas also seems keen to pursue frontcourt reinforcements this offseason. While the Mavericks did quietly gauge trade interest on Kristaps Porzingis before the trade deadline, they are more determined to find a center to pair with their All-Star big man, sources said. That big man could very well become Holmes, although the Mavericks are likely to pursue John Collins this summer as well."

"Holmes could find himself netting a deal worth upward of $80 million over four years, according to league personnel polled by Bleacher Report."

[HAguiar95]

Sounds strange but I am a littie bit afraid of a big THJ series. He averaged 21/3/3 on 69% TS in may. If he is anywhere close to those numbers he can expect a big payday.
I want the Mavs to win but I also want to keep THJ on a reasonable deal. Could have avoided the entire situation with an early extension but the Mavs probably have bigger plans.

I want the Mavs to win and THJ to be gone. I don't think he comes close to these stats (which he got against crapy teams) against a good team like the Clippers (I bet he goes like last year on a mediocre 41 FG%/35 3pt% with putrid defense once again). The extension (glad they didn't) would be like the Powell one, a shot in the foot. Not sure why all of a sudden people are starting to put THJ on our future plans on a big salary. It's like the last 2 years wasn't enough evidence. He doesn't impact our team on a positive way (besides maybe locker room). Game 6 last year should have been the final straw.

[Scott41theMavs]

I want the Mavs to win and THJ to be gone. 

I doubt that those two things aren't mutually exclusive.

[StepBackJay]

THJ is more likely staying than he is leaving because who is he going to get upgraded to?

[dirkfansince1998]

I want the Mavs to win and THJ to be gone. I don't think he comes close to these stats (which he got against crapy teams) against a good team like the Clippers (I bet he goes like last year on a mediocre 41 FG%/35 3pt% with putrid defense once again). The extension (glad they didn't) would be like the Powell one, a shot in the foot. Not sure why all of a sudden people are starting to put THJ on our future plans on a big salary. It's like the last 2 years wasn't enough evidence. He doesn't impact our team on a positive way (besides maybe locker room). Game 6 last year should have been the final straw.

The "against bad teams" take has been proven wrong over and over again. THJ is a streaky shooter. Doesn´t really matter if he is playing against a top team or not. Recent stretch included big THJ games against the Nets and Heat. People around the league are expecting him to get paid for a reason. Yes he has a limited skill set. Not a great defender, not a great playmaker but his one skill has a lot of value. THJ can score. Solid volume on above league average efficiency. High 3-point volume on above average efficiency.
Jordan Clarkson is the 6th man of the year. He scored 1.8pts more than THJ on -4% TS. And it´s not like he is a better defender.

The evidence isn´t supporting your case. Don´t know how many times I have posted this...14 players in the league finished the season shooting >39% from 3 on more than 7 3PAs. THJ is one of them. Only two of them make less than 15m per year. Duncan Robinson (getting paid this summer) and Malik Beasley (14.4m next season). If you want to replace THJ with a better player you need to be willing to invest near max or max money. Not sure if the Mavs are willing to do that.

Agree on one point. The playoffs will be important for THJ. Well...not only for him. KP and JRich as well. All three have something to prove if they want to stay.

[Scott41theMavs]

The "against bad teams" take has been proven wrong over and over again. THJ is a streaky shooter. Doesn´t really matter if he is playing against a top team or not. Recent stretch included big THJ games against the Nets and Heat. People around the league are expecting him to get paid for a reason. Yes he has a limited skill set. Not a great defender, not a great playmaker but his one skill has a lot of value. THJ can score. Solid volume on above league average efficiency. High 3-point volume on above average efficiency.
Jordan Clarkson is the 6th man of the year. He scored 1.8pts more than THJ on -4% TS. And it´s not like he is a better defender.

The evidence isn´t supporting your case. Don´t know how many times I have posted this...14 players in the league finished the season shooting >39% from 3 on more than 7 3PAs. THJ is one of them. Only two of them make less than 15m per year. Duncan Robinson (getting paid this summer) and Malik Beasley (14.4m next season). If you want to replace THJ with a better player you need to be willing to invest near max or max money. Not sure if the Mavs are willing to do that.

Agree on one point. The playoffs will be important for THJ. Well...not only for him. KP and JRich as well. All three have something to prove if they want to stay.

$15 mil per year, or perhaps a little more, is okay. His current deal isn't. And I would want to see the list of the other 11 guys.

[dirkfansince1998]

$15 mil per year, or perhaps a little more, is okay. His current deal isn't. And I would want to see the list of the other 11 guys.

39% >7 attempts

Stephen Curry
Zach Lavine
Damian Lillard
KyrieIrving
Jaylen Brown
Paul George
CJ McCollum
Malik Beasley
Kyle Lowry
Buddy Hield
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Duncan Robinson
Davis Bertans
Tim Hardaway

39% >6 attempts

Evan Fournier
Jamal Murray
Mike Conley
Joe Harris
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Nikola Vucevic
Michael Porter Jr
Danny Green
Reggie Bullock
OG Anunoby
Joe Ingles
Norman Powell
Wayne Ellington

38% > 7 attempts

Terry Rozier
D´Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Jayson Tatum
Gary Trent Jr
Armoni Brooks (barely qualified, only played 20 games)

Not a lot of cheap options.

[StepBackJay]

Looking at that list, some of which could be "peers" in terms of production, I still feel like that 13-18 range is pretty solid. Hield is the only big outlier I saw at first glance.