2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, let’s say KP @ PF is a rousing success in the playoffs...same with THJ as the starter.  I think it changes the way we look at the roster.  Suddenly C is not KP/DP/WCS.  C is DP/WCS and PF is KP/Maxi.  With last night’s rotation in mind, what is now the weakest link?


C:  DP/WCS

PF: KP/Maxi

SF: DFS/JRich

SG: THJ/..............Green

PG:  Luka/JB (JB also gets minutes at the 2)


If the playoffs are successful, it probably means DP and WCS played well.  Could you get away with simply adding a fifth big (Theis?) who can play both positions.  Or, do you try to spend money here to get someone more consistent than WCS (Holmes?) and push Powell to the backup?

If there is a SF/Defender position, is JRich right for it?  If little offense is expected from this position, can Green do it almost as well for a fraction of the cost?  Or, might you go for a more expensive 3&D SF moving DFS to the bench?  Or, a starting level Guard and move THJ back to sixth man?

Just wanted to point out that a lot of our scenarios (the ones where KP is part of the team) are predicated on KP being the starting C.  It may not happen that way.

Edit:  One more thing...If THJ is a keeper, we might as well work over the cap and try to use the MLE and/or a trade or S&T of opted-in or UFA JRich...assuming he’s the odd man out.

[mavsluvr]

If the playoffs are successful,

What would you consider a successful postseason for the Mavs?

[mvossman]

OK, now that that’s out of the way, I value JB much more than I do MR.  His pedigree as a second rounder gets in the way.  If we called him Mystery PG X and showed his numbers (especially per 36), people would go nuts to add that type of guy.  JB is also a dream from a character standpoint and I think Robinson has some issues that make him less than ideal.  Setting all of that aside, I do fear NY is going to come hard after Brunson.  

Robinson IS in the contract situation I erroneously tried to paint regarding Brunson.  NY CAN make him restricted this offseason.  If they don’t, he’ll be UFA in 22.  So, if he’s RFA, it forces us to work under the cap for a S&T with NY as his raise will be substantial.  If he continues to play under his rookie scale this season, then he’s UFA in 22 and we’ve got just as much risk of losing him for nothing.  Plus, isn’t center the easier position to fill cheaply?  Since you keep posting this idea to little response, I thought I’d give one.  I’m not a fan for on-court, off-court and financial reasons.

I think Brunson's numbers are a little misleading.  He makes a lot of those against second units and seems to really struggle with long, quality defense.  He also gets exposed defensively.  He is a great bench/role player, but I don't ever see him being a legit starter on this team.

That being said, I agree on valuing Brunson way more than Robinson, especially for a team that is desperate for play making and shot creation.  If we are going to trade away Brunson, I see it for somebody better and more expensive (like Ball or part of Brogdon trade).

[Kammrath]

Holmes?

RH is my target regardless of KP being in DAL or not. He is the perfect big for Luka in today's NBA. Switchable on D and elite roll man on O. Give me RH next to KP....or next to ________. Just give me RH.

[mvossman]

So, let’s say KP @ PF is a rousing success in the playoffs...same with THJ as the starter.  I think it changes the way we look at the roster.  Suddenly C is not KP/DP/WCS.  C is DP/WCS and PF is KP/Maxi.  With last night’s rotation in mind, what is now the weakest link?


C:  DP/WCS

PF: KP/Maxi

SF: DFS/JRich

SG: THJ/..............Green

PG:  Luka/JB (JB also gets minutes at the 2)


If the playoffs are successful, it probably means DP and WCS played well.  Could you get away with simply adding a fifth big (Theis?) who can play both positions.  Or, do you try to spend money here to get someone more consistent than WCS (Holmes?) and push Powell to the backup?

If there is a SF/Defender position, is JRich right for it?  If little offense is expected from this position, can Green do it almost as well for a fraction of the cost?  Or, might you go for a more expensive 3&D SF moving DFS to the bench?  Or, a starting level Guard and move THJ back to sixth man?

Just wanted to point out that a lot of our scenarios (the ones where KP is part of the team) are predicated on KP being the starting C.  It may not happen that way.

Edit:  One more thing...If THJ is a keeper, we might as well work over the cap and try to use the MLE and/or a trade or S&T of opted-in or UFA JRich...assuming he’s the odd man out.

I have a really hard time believing that a KP/Powell/Luka/THJ grouping can possibly be good enough defensively for the playoffs.  KP/Luka/THJ lineups (there is not enough sample with Powell) have a 119 defensive rating and net -5.  

Come playoff time I don't know why they would not stick with their most used starting lineup, KP/Maxi/Luka/DFS/JRich.  That lineup is 124 and 111 for a plus 13.  It has been great.  Its only been used 22 games due to health, but is still more than twice the sample size of any other 5 man lineup.  THJ, Brunson and Powell have all looked good coming off the bench and are well suited to that role.  That is your primary 8 man rotation.  

To be honest, I am way less concerned about whether KP is a 4 or 5 offensively (he can be either).  He has to be a 5 defensively, and he has to be good enough at the 5 to allow the team to be good defensively.  As bad as it seems like his defense has been this year, I find it interesting how good that starting lineup defense has been.  If we are going to eventually contend with KP, it will require putting someone next to him (Maxi, Powell, Holmes?) that will make this defense good.

[StepBackJay]

Its just not going to happen.





OK, now that that’s out of the way, I value JB much more than I do MR.  His pedigree as a second rounder gets in the way.  If we called him Mystery PG X and showed his numbers (especially per 36), people would go nuts to add that type of guy.  JB is also a dream from a character standpoint and I think Robinson has some issues that make him less than ideal.  Setting all of that aside, I do fear NY is going to come hard after Brunson.  

Robinson IS in the contract situation I erroneously tried to paint regarding Brunson.  NY CAN make him restricted this offseason.  If they don’t, he’ll be UFA in 22.  So, if he’s RFA, it forces us to work under the cap for a S&T with NY as his raise will be substantial.  If he continues to play under his rookie scale this season, then he’s UFA in 22 and we’ve got just as much risk of losing him for nothing.  Plus, isn’t center the easier position to fill cheaply?  Since you keep posting this idea to little response, I thought I’d give one.  I’m not a fan for on-court, off-court and financial reasons.

Ya I didn't know the RFA situation. I think in one sense center is easy to replace if you goal is to be like WCS-level okay at the position, I just really like the MR fit. I feel like Mavs have a big risk of losing Brunson for nothing, I think it would be easier to keep MR bc he would be starting vs Brunson who can maybe be a starter and play for his dad in NYK. Something to think about.

[IamDougieFresh]

What would you consider a successful postseason for the Mavs?

1. Get out of the first round.
2. Win 2+ games in the second round
3. KP plays every game and plays well.

[StepBackJay]

I think Brunson's numbers are a little misleading.  He makes a lot of those against second units and seems to really struggle with long, quality defense.  He also gets exposed defensively.  He is a great bench/role player, but I don't ever see him being a legit starter on this team.

That being said, I agree on valuing Brunson way more than Robinson, especially for a team that is desperate for play making and shot creation.  If we are going to trade away Brunson, I see it for somebody better and more expensive (like Ball or part of Brogdon trade).

I would definitely be down with a Brogdon, Brunson trade. What if NYK gave you Dallas future first back + MR?

[StepBackJay]

RH is my target regardless of KP being in DAL or not. He is the perfect big for Luka in today's NBA. Switchable on D and elite roll man on O. Give me RH next to KP....or next to ________. Just give me RH.

I am down with an RH/THJ offseason. It seems pretty doable to fit both of those guys Altho RH's price tag might end up being a bit rich for how the Mavs would value him on this team. If Mavs do spend a good deal on a player like RH I think it would shore things up on the frontcourt and also give them a KP exit-strategy should they need to move him. That being said, knowing the Mavs thing they would probably rather spend cap space on another guard/wing that they think is an upgrade over J Rich.

[mvossman]

I would definitely be down with a Brogdon, Brunson trade. What if NYK gave you Dallas future first back + MR?

I would rather have Holmes or Theis without giving up an asset, and I don't see NYK sending a first in that deal.

[SleepingHero]

What would you consider a successful postseason for the Mavs?

https://tenor.com/view/dirk-nowitzki-dal...f-17482289

[omahen]

I have a really hard time believing that a KP/Powell/Luka/THJ grouping can possibly be good enough defensively for the playoffs.

Totally agree. If I think about Clippers, I just don't see it work at all defensively. You would have:
- KP on Ibaka (in any case), 
- THJ on Beverly (in any case, I see no way THJ can guard George, Kawhi or Morris, as a little bigger guys are always punishing him inside)
- you need to put DFS on George, I think DFS is too small for Kawhi
- this leaves Luka on Morris and Powell (good luck!) on Kawhi. Or you put your best offensive weapon Luka to waste all his energy on their best offensive guy

On the other side they would put Ibaka on Powell, one of Kawhi or Morris on KP and the other on Luka, George on THJ and Beverly on DFS (or switch those two). They will switch everything. They would be able to afford to have the DFS guy and the Powell guy play help defense on Luka, basically blocking all driving lanes for Luka limiting him to midrange jumpers.

I think it is necessary to play Luka/KP PnR in the playoffs, not PnP as they had in the regular season. Without it, they will be in trouble.

[Scott41theMavs]

1. Get out of the first round.
2. Win 2+ games in the second round
3. KP plays every game and plays well.

Co-sign.

What I'm seeing in the conversation in this thread, if the majority are right, is that we're essentially stuck with KP for at least another year. The very best they could do this summer would be to trade him for even-more-broken-down expiring players (assuming you all are right). If that's the case, you have to rehabilitate his trade value over a longer term and with less time remaining on his deal.

If KP's defensive problems are injury-related, then perhaps an offseason of proper rehab and conditioning could fix that, at least somewhat? If the problems are permanent, can the coaching staff work out something to make him as effective as possible on that end?

I do expect (not as in, I hope with probability for it, but as in, he'd damn well better) KP to play hard in the playoffs and be efficient on offense. I think it's fair to say at this point that if he is relatively successful on defense in the playoffs, that's going to have much more to do with coaching staff adjustments than any personal improvements on his part. That would probably not increase KP's trade value, but it would be far more heartening for the possibilities of the team's success with another year with him on roster.

[StepBackJay]

I think it is necessary to play Luka/KP PnR in the playoffs, not PnP as they had in the regular season. Without it, they will be in trouble.

I missed the beginning of this thread but for sure if the Mavs play the Clippers they will not run the lineup they ran last night. J Rich and Maxi are both options to help handle Kawhi and George.

[Chicagojk]

For all the things we complain about with the front office, I think some congratulations are due to both Carlisle and WCS on WCS play this year.   At his contract, that is a nice value they got from him this year.   He has been good this year.    

WCS will never be my cup of tea and I don't think I will ever trust him in a big, important game.   With that being said, on most nights he has been a plus on the court.   So props to Carlisle for working with him to improve his game and for WCS for having a nice season.   He has certainly exceeded my expectations.

[Scott41theMavs]

For all the things we complain about with the front office, I think some congratulations are due to both Carlisle and WCS on WCS play this year.   At his contract, that is a nice value they got from him this year.   He has been good this year.    

WCS will never be my cup of tea and I don't think I will ever trust him in a big, important game.   With that being said, on most nights he has been a plus on the court.   So props to Carlisle for working with him to improve his game and for WCS for having a nice season.   He has certainly exceeded my expectations.

Interesting take. I think he should have gotten more burn, given what a defensive plus he's been this season. I would go as far as to say our record would be a win or two better had he played more minutes in a couple of key games.

[KillerLeft]

For all the things we complain about with the front office, I think some congratulations are due to both Carlisle and WCS on WCS play this year.   At his contract, that is a nice value they got from him this year.   He has been good this year.    

WCS will never be my cup of tea and I don't think I will ever trust him in a big, important game.   With that being said, on most nights he has been a plus on the court.   So props to Carlisle for working with him to improve his game and for WCS for having a nice season.   He has certainly exceeded my expectations.

Totally. This is the best version of WCS we possibly could've hoped for, imo. He's contributing to winning basketball and damn near thriving in a high-stakes team environment.

[F Gump]

I know there are many who idly toss WCS to the curb for next year, in order to eke out a bit more latitude for cap room, but I've never seen it happening. Still don't, and this ^ is why - his salary, as is being noted, is bargain priced.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What would you consider a successful postseason for the Mavs?

Short answer...More.

Long answer.  I don’t think just being happy to be here is good enough.  I’d like to end the playoffs with everyone healthy going into the summer.  That would be successful.  I’d like a Calvin Booth moment if I’m honest.  But, we all know there will be only one winner and everyone will get bounced eventually and there will be those among us calling for various heads no matter what round we exit.

Would I be pleased if we took Denver or LAC to a game seven and we lost a nail-biter?  That’s really kind of the question, right?  That fits the definition of “more”.  I can hear people defending the team that we never really got to play our best lineups together for much of the year.  I’m afraid I want a bit more to be satisfied.  I want Calvin to hit the put back...even if we get bounced in four games in round two.

[ItsGoTime]

I know there are many who idly toss WCS to the curb for next year, in order to eke out a bit more latitude for cap room, but I've never seen it happening. Still don't, and this ^ is why - his salary, as is being noted, is bargain priced.

I agree with this unless the money is shown to have been needed for the right player.

---

Short answer...More.

Long answer.  I don’t think just being happy to be here is good enough.  I’d like to end the playoffs with everyone healthy going into the summer.  That would be successful.  I’d like a Calvin Booth moment if I’m honest.  But, we all know there will be only one winner and everyone will get bounced eventually and there will be those among us calling for various heads no matter what round we exit.

Would I be pleased if we took Denver or LAC to a game seven and we lost a nail-biter?  That’s really kind of the question, right?  That fits the definition of “more”.  I can hear people defending the team that we never really got to play our best lineups together for much of the year.  I’m afraid I want a bit more to be satisfied.  I want Calvin to hit the put back...even if we get bounced in four games in round two.

This is pretty much exactly where I am.