2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[fifteenth]

If a move needs to be made, I think the most obvious guy of any relevancy to trade is Josh Richardson.

1.) His defense has not been as advertised -- last night he had a team worst defensive rating of 150 (yikes). Second worst defensive rating on the team for the season (behind KP). 

2.) Expiring contract -- he has been playing better lately but that is mainly on offense; might be playing for that summer payday. If it leads to more wins, great. If not, don't see him in the long term plans. Big month ahead.

3) He's in the guard rotation with Brunson, and anyone who could possiblty take a minute from Brunson in the rotation must be eliminated.

[Jason Terry]

I like Young. But I just don't see him as any difference maker for Mavs, just a marginal upgrade over Johnson. Is it really worth an asset? Is there really nothing better out there for Johnson expiring and whatever assets needed? 

While Johnson wasn't really impressing there was one thing he did well - he was excellent guarding big wings like LeBron.

The “asset” would likely be Terry or a 2nd rd pick. Either of which might not carry much more value than an open roster spot that could be used on a vet min FA. Anything more than that and i would pass on Thad

Thad brings toughness. We already know he wants to be here. He said as much before signing with Chicago. IMO, fit and that player’s motivation when they get here are underrated among fans

[Jason Terry]

JT, I thought your entire post was really good.  We are better than our current standing and numbers indicate (Covid and injuries devastating the roster does matter).  I think Omahen's quote is a false dichotomy.  Clearly there are more nuanced options, though I would agree we are in a bit of a rock and hard spot dilemma as it relates to the options you provide and anything in-between.  Here are some things (and challenges) I think lie between doing nothing and starting from scratch:

ST Band-aid:  JT has posted some good backup PF options.  These would give us a good ninth man to add to the C/PG/Wing that we currently have in spots 6, 7 and 8.  I think of this as the Thaddeus Young option and personally think we need to do this at the very least.  We rely WAY too heavily on Maxi and DFS and an injury to either in the playoffs would be devastating.  James Johnson hasn't proven to be the answer.  Do we "contend" with this addition?  I view us as eventually returning to better than where we peaked last season, so small incremental improvements are valuable.

More than a ST Band-aid at the TDL:  We can all dream about a size-able upgrade at some position (I'll call this the John Collins option...Schwartz...to put a face with a theory).  Unfortunately, it is hard to trade for value when you have no value to give.  We have nothing to offer other than expiring deals.  None of the players we could offer are particularly young nor do they have high ceilings (does anyone seriously think we are trading KP?).  Plus, with 20 teams making the playoffs/play-in now and 26 or so thinking they have a chance (and the lottery odds less beneficial to tanking), there aren't a lot of sellers out there.   I think we are much more likely to see an expiring veteran on the downside of his career than someone on the level of Collins...so back to the ST Band-aid.

Summer:  As I've said for months, we have to give up a ton just to get in the conversation for high level FA's.  If you are going to give up all those guys in the summer for a shot, then you are better off doing it before the TDL and controlling said RFA (or at least having full Bird rights if he's a UFA).  Add the fact that there isn't an obvious home run UFA available and summer home runs don't seem likely.  I'm not saying we won't do anything.  I'm saying it is unlikely to be anywhere near a max level guy in the summer.

I will remind all of a complicating factor that might make Brunson more available than I'd prefer.  As most know, he's UFA in 22 and Dallas has no way of keeping him if he wants to go.  Yes, we can extend Brunson next season, but only up to 120% of the average salary (call it $12mm).  So, if Brunson is satisfied at that level or less, great.  If he sees himsellf as FVV if only given FVV's opportunity, then uh oh.  

I've posted something Eric Pincus wrote about Zach LaVine who is in a similar situation but at bigger dollars (basically renegotiate the 2021 contract and then extend him).  It would take additional research to see if that would work with Brunson.  But even if it does, that will require using some 2021 cap room...not ideal if we are trying to use cap room to add players.  Does Dallas want to deal with all that?  Or, do they let it become someone else's problem by moving Brunson?  I like Brunson and love how he looks with and without Luka this season.  But, when you add in all the financial gymnastics it becomes more of an open question than just my preference to keep him.

Thanks for that info on Brunson. Didn’t know all that. I guess that could complicate things. He doesn’t seem like the big ego type that cares if he’s starting so long if he gets his minutes(25). Hopefully we can reach a deal with him. $12 million is fair for a backup PG

It seems like this turns into a “which bird rights are best to have” game. IMO, that would be more than ST band-aid since it would be done with the idea of re-signing that player. That’s how i could see a guy like Fournier being on the table even though he doesn’t solve our biggest issue. He would be a culture fit(euro) and some additional scoring/3P from the wing. 

Haven’t totally ruled out Johnson, but the underwhelming rebounding has been a disappointment. Like you said though, this will be an unusual year with so many teams in the “playoffs” now. Could lead to high prices so we should expect something small

[Tyler]

$12 million is fair for a backup PG

The thing about Brunson is that if he keeps this up he's better than a backup. He's starting to remind me of Malcolm Brogdon in Milwaukee -- a second-round PG drafted in about the same spot who blossomed into a 50/40/90 guy and ended up earning $20mm a year. Milwaukee must still be kicking themselves for not finding a way to keep him.

[ItsGoTime]

He doesn’t seem like the big ego type that cares if he’s starting so long if he gets his minutes(25).

I don't' think he is a big ego guy, but it doesn't take a big ego to believe you're more than the role you're forced to play with your team. If another team wants to give you that shot AND pay you more than your team is willing and able to? It doesn't take a big ego to make that decision for yourself.

[Scott41theMavs]

If a move needs to be made, I think the most obvious guy of any relevancy to trade is Josh Richardson.

1.) His defense has not been as advertised -- last night he had a team worst defensive rating of 150 (yikes). Second worst defensive rating on the team for the season (behind KP). 

2.) Expiring contract -- he has been playing better lately but that is mainly on offense; might be playing for that summer payday. If it leads to more wins, great. If not, don't see him in the long term plans. Big month ahead.

Plus, it gives Brunson a spot in the starting lineup... amiright? Edit: Fif sorta beat me to it.

Re: Dan and Brunson: I think that Brunson has more of a future here than JRich if the Mavs give it to him. The thing is, it looks pretty bad - and makes the team worse in the short run - if we let JRich walk to have room to sign Brunson, and if we trade JRich for a non-expirer, then that guy's salary prevents us from signing Brunson. 

I agree that the Mavs will rue the day they didn't find a way to keep Brunson unless he goes out packaged in a KP deal that brings back at least two top 50 players.

[Jason Terry]

Plus, it gives Brunson a spot in the starting lineup... amiright? Edit: Fif sorta beat me to it.

Re: Dan and Brunson: I think that Brunson has more of a future here than JRich if the Mavs give it to him. The thing is, it looks pretty bad - and makes the team worse in the short run - if we let JRich walk to have room to sign Brunson, and if we trade JRich for a non-expirer, then that guy's salary prevents us from signing Brunson. 

I agree that the Mavs will rue the day they didn't find a way to keep Brunson unless he goes out packaged in a KP deal that brings back at least two top 50 players.

And worse overall team defense. Brunson is a high IQ gamer that’s perfect in his role on this squad. He’s a great guy to have leading a bench and filling in for Luka if he’s out. A+ guy all around and someone you find on championship teams. High school state champ. U18 and U19 gold. 2X National champion. I think we run this out and try to keep him at all costs. 

I guess I’ve turned into the in house J Rich guy. He and Dorian are the only guys with the length, speed and quickness to guard elite players in a playoff series. Guys like that are few and far between in a league that more and more plays optional defense. Despite that, it still wins championships. LAL are the proof. Ever since the season “started” a few games ago he’s filled whatever needs we have. The Rich-KP connection has been a real thing. Handling and dishing the rock giving Luka a breather is underreported. He and Brunson both rebound well for their size on a team that desperately needs rebounding. He’s the best free throw shooter on the team and that matters in multiple ways. The mid range game is right there with Brunson and Luka. The 3pt shooting is good enough and has been since he started back. Most importantly though is watch him communicating on the defensive end. He’s telling guys what to do. Luka literally has plays where he blows a coverage and asks JRich what he did wrong. 

Lets see what happens

[Tyler]

Re: Dan and Brunson: I think that Brunson has more of a future here than JRich if the Mavs give it to him. The thing is, it looks pretty bad - and makes the team worse in the short run - if we let JRich walk to have room to sign Brunson, and if we trade JRich for a non-expirer, then that guy's salary prevents us from signing Brunson. 

Dallas has Brunson under contract for one more year, and they also have full Bird rights. So they'll be able to pay him the max if they want regardless of cap space. The only issue is that he'll be an unrestricted FA in 2022 and can sign wherever he pleases. And it's very possible that he'll (rightfully) feel like he deserves to be a starter somewhere.

That said, having talented young players who would be highly desirable on the open market is a good problem to have. Dallas and Brunson just need to mutually figure out the best path forward.

[Omega_Supreme]

The thing about Brunson is that if he keeps this up he's better than a backup. He's starting to remind me of Malcolm Brogdon in Milwaukee -- a second-round PG drafted in about the same spot who blossomed into a 50/40/90 guy and ended up earning $20mm a year. Milwaukee must still be kicking themselves for not finding a way to keep him.

DING DING  DING THIS ALL DAY

People keep trying to give Brunson away, he is exactly on the path of Malcom Brogdon. 

I agree with moving him to the starting lineup because he deserves it and he has outplayed Richardson. If Richardson is not a difference maker on defense then why should we keep him and extend him. I would rather commit that money to someone else and Brunson long term. Making the switch now is better than later. 

Richardson would definitely be someone I look to trade and commit to Brunson right now.

[Scott41theMavs]

And worse overall team defense. Brunson is a high IQ gamer that’s perfect in his role on this squad. He’s a great guy to have leading a bench and filling in for Luka if he’s out. A+ guy all around and someone you find on championship teams. High school state champ. U18 and U19 gold. 2X National champion. I think we run this out and try to keep him at all costs. 

I guess I’ve turned into the in house J Rich guy. He and Dorian are the only guys with the length, speed and quickness to guard elite players in a playoff series. Guys like that are few and far between in a league that more and more plays optional defense. Despite that, it still wins championships. LAL are the proof. Ever since the season “started” a few games ago he’s filled whatever needs we have. The Rich-KP connection has been a real thing. Handling and dishing the rock giving Luka a breather is underreported. He and Brunson both rebound well for their size on a team that desperately needs rebounding. He’s the best free throw shooter on the team and that matters in multiple ways. The mid range game is right there with Brunson and Luka. The 3pt shooting is good enough and has been since he started back. Most importantly though is watch him communicating on the defensive end. He’s telling guys what to do. Luka literally has plays where he blows a coverage and asks JRich what he did wrong. 

Lets see what happens

Problem with JRich is that his defense, like KP's, has been the most disappointing thing about him as a Mav this year.

[Branduil]

JRich was fine defensively before COVID, as was Maxi... hopefully they can improve with time on that end.

If it's a choice between Brunson and JRich though, the Mavs will have to make that decision fairly soon, or risk losing both for nothing. In terms of teams where a trade for JRich would make sense, I've suggested the Raptors before; he would fit in nicely next to sharpshooters FVV and Anunoby. The earlier trade was JRich+Burke+WCS for Lowry and Boucher, but Lowry wouldn't make sense if the plan is to clear the path for Brunson to start (I'm also not sure that would be enough for Lowry). In that case, here's a smaller JRich + WCS for Boucher trade. Boucher would fit in nicely as the 4th big who could play with any of the others.

https://tradenba.com/trades/nDVJ4EEUI

Mavs would still have Johnson as a trade piece after that, and would be looking for wing/guard depth. Maybe a trade with Miami for Dragic?

https://tradenba.com/trades/_aRgNEhw9

New lineup:

Luka / Dragic
Brunson / THJ
DFS / Green
Maxi / Boucher
KP / Powell

[DanSchwartzgan]

Dallas has Brunson under contract for one more year, and they also have full Bird rights. So they'll be able to pay him the max if they want regardless of cap space. The only issue is that he'll be an unrestricted FA in 2022 and can sign wherever he pleases. And it's very possible that he'll (rightfully) feel like he deserves to be a starter somewhere.

Here's an addendum to what I wrote yesterday (also posted in the Brunson thread):


The somewhat unusual thing about Brunson is he has a super-cheap non-guaranteed 4th year next season.  If Dallas elects to pay him that amount, he is UFA the summer of 22 and we have no control.  One way of mitigating that is to give him an extension, but that is limited to 120% of the average salary or about $12 million.  We have examples of similar PG's making more than that.  So, probably not a solution.


Your post reminded me of another possible solution.  I need to look this up, but I think we could make Jalen free this summer by foregoing our option.  That would make Jalen RFA this summer with a small hold and we can pay him whatever we want.  This doesn't happen often (four year deals for 2nd rounders aren't the norm).  Houston and Chandler Parsons went through this back in 2014.  The choice was to pay him his small non-guaranteed 4th year and probably lose him the next season as a UFA.  Or, Houston could make him RFA that summer and presumably retain him after doing a bunch of other free agent signings.  We all know how that worked out.

That would potentially solve the 22 UFA issue.  It would just cost Cuban some extra money in the 21-22 season.  As you point out, we don't have to have cap room in 21 to do this.  Brunson's cap hold it just a little bit more than his 2021 non-guaranteed salary. 

[StepBackJay]

I am trying to be patient with J Rich. It's tough when Curry is having like a 50/50/100 season lol.

[dirkfansince1998]

I am trying to be patient with J Rich. It's tough when Curry is having like a 50/50/100 season lol.

Curry hasn´t been nearly as good in the last few weeks. Since his return his numbers are down. 12 games. 10/2/2 in 27 minutes. Shooting 40.8/37.8/94.1.
Richardson averaged 12/3/3.5 over the last 10 games. Shooting 43.6/28.9/92.9.

In the first few games of the season Richardson played incredible on ball defense. Something that I haven´t seen since the Kidd/Marion days. If he can get back to that level and at least get into the 33-35% range from 3 the Mavs won the trade.

[KillerLeft]

As far as a minor move to address the 4 is concerned, I would prefer a deal like Johnson/Terry for Thad Young. It's not splashy, but Thad is a small positive on both ends. Bjelica is available as well if they want to throw defense to the wind.

Bjelica isn't a sexy addition, but he IS a solution to the problem I was mentioning the other day. He COULD get minutes as the 4th big in situations when Powell or WCS (whichever ISN'T the 3rd big that night) cannot.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Richardson is a bust here yet, but I do think he's still getting the "honeymoon" benefit of the doubt around here, as if the trade just went through and we don't have actual play in a Mavs uniform to evaluate yet. I think he has been better the last couple of games, particularly on offense, where he has forced less and let the flow of the game come to him more. But for much of the season he has been underwhelming. And, he's a GOOD defender sometimes, for sure. But, he isn't a GREAT defender, imo, or hasn't been that here, so far. I've seen him make some nice plays on that end, but he gets blown by just like everyone else. He's not prime Ariza, Green, Allen, etc. 

While I don't hope he's gone soon or anything, I don't have Richardson written into the future here in ink yet, and I sure hope the Mavs don't, either. If he has trade value, I see no reason he can't be included in a deal to improve the team. I, too, think Brunson might be the better player, long term.

[Mapka]

Curry hasn´t been nearly as good in the last few weeks. Since his return his numbers are down. 12 games. 10/2/2 in 27 minutes. Shooting 40.8/37.8/94.1.
Richardson averaged 12/3/3.5 over the last 10 games. Shooting 43.6/28.9/92.9.

In the first few games of the season Richardson played incredible on ball defense. Something that I haven´t seen since the Kidd/Marion days. If he can get back to that level and at least get into the 33-35% range from 3 the Mavs won the trade.

I'm not sure if "winning" a trade is always the goal. 
I'd love to loose a trade if it makes us better, more fun or ideally brings us a 'ship. 
This trade seems to be a wash in this regard at the moment. 

I wish Seth the best minus beating us in the finals.

[chaparral]

Here's an addendum to what I wrote yesterday (also posted in the Brunson thread):


The somewhat unusual thing about Brunson is he has a super-cheap non-guaranteed 4th year next season.  If Dallas elects to pay him that amount, he is UFA the summer of 22 and we have no control.  One way of mitigating that is to give him an extension, but that is limited to 120% of the average salary or about $12 million.  We have examples of similar PG's making more than that.  So, probably not a solution.


Your post reminded me of another possible solution.  I need to look this up, but I think we could make Jalen free this summer by foregoing our option.  That would make Jalen RFA this summer with a small hold and we can pay him whatever we want.  This doesn't happen often (four year deals for 2nd rounders aren't the norm).  Houston and Chandler Parsons went through this back in 2014.  The choice was to pay him his small non-guaranteed 4th year and probably lose him the next season as a UFA.  Or, Houston could make him RFA that summer and presumably retain him after doing a bunch of other free agent signings.  We all know how that worked out.

That would potentially solve the 22 UFA issue.  It would just cost Cuban some extra money in the 21-22 season.  As you point out, we don't have to have cap room in 21 to do this.  Brunson's cap hold it just a little bit more than his 2021 non-guaranteed salary. 

I cant recall when the Mavs resigned a backup PG.  Seams like they have always let them go in free agency, Barea, Yogi - just to name a few.  They have Brunson on the vary cheep and Terry as vary cheep insurance.  So I see Brunson as either being traded or he plays out his contract and not resigned.  It's the MBT's MO.

[Mapka]

I cant recall when the Mavs resigned a backup PG.  Seams like they have always let them go in free agency, Barea, Yogi - just to name a few.  They have Brunson on the vary cheep and Terry as vary cheep insurance.  So I see Brunson as either being traded or he plays out his contract and not resigned.  It's the MBT's MO.

Äh JJ was resigned 4 years ago, Curry was resigned, Devin was resigned, Yogi was kinda resigned before he asked out. 
It's quite the opposite.

[Scott41theMavs]

Here's an addendum to what I wrote yesterday (also posted in the Brunson thread):


The somewhat unusual thing about Brunson is he has a super-cheap non-guaranteed 4th year next season.  If Dallas elects to pay him that amount, he is UFA the summer of 22 and we have no control.  One way of mitigating that is to give him an extension, but that is limited to 120% of the average salary or about $12 million.  We have examples of similar PG's making more than that.  So, probably not a solution.


Your post reminded me of another possible solution.  I need to look this up, but I think we could make Jalen free this summer by foregoing our option.  That would make Jalen RFA this summer with a small hold and we can pay him whatever we want.  This doesn't happen often (four year deals for 2nd rounders aren't the norm).  Houston and Chandler Parsons went through this back in 2014.  The choice was to pay him his small non-guaranteed 4th year and probably lose him the next season as a UFA.  Or, Houston could make him RFA that summer and presumably retain him after doing a bunch of other free agent signings.  We all know how that worked out.

That would potentially solve the 22 UFA issue.  It would just cost Cuban some extra money in the 21-22 season.  As you point out, we don't have to have cap room in 21 to do this.  Brunson's cap hold it just a little bit more than his 2021 non-guaranteed salary. 

What I don't understand in both of your posts is the "we don't have the cap room in '21 to do this" part. If they went the Chandler route, wouldn't they have just the difference between his cap hold and his non-guaranteed salary affecting things and then could pay him whatever salary needed as you said earlier? It would seem that cap room then isn't an issue at all. They could sign free agents (renouncing THJ and/or JRich and/or Johnson, who btw has no future here for sure) or re-sign THJ and/or JRich, and then re-sign Brunson over-the-cap, right? Don't we have his Bird rights by making him an RFA, since he's been here three years?

---

Äh JJ was resigned 4 years ago, Curry was resigned, Devin was resigned, Yogi was kinda resigned before he asked out. 
It's quite the opposite.

Exactly. Brunson is the youngest (other possibly than Yogi) of those guys, with the most potential for continued improvement (e.g. he's far better this year than last).