2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

I dont understand why people think Buddy Hield is this gigantic upgrade over THJ. If you look at things like Real Plus Minus, he would be a downgrade. And Hield and THJ are both 28 years old, so it's not like Hield more fits the mold of a young up and coming future 3rd star who has tons of ceiling left to reach.

I think the upside of playing in a bad small market franchise is everyone thinks you could thrive in another situation and it's nothing is really your fault, whereas being in a huge market bad franchise like the Knicks you just get endlessly mocked and become the league poster child for being overpaid.

[michaeltex]

I don't get the anxiety to trade THJ. 

I understand, on his own, he isn't a first option and his defense is average (or below?). But he doesn't play 1-on-1 and within Luka's Mavericks he is a key component. He can take over games, but he doesn't HAVE to on a nightly basis. Obviously playing around the Luka/KP gravity wells have given him space for success. IF that continues this season, I don't see the problem with keeping him around. THJ knows where he fits in the scheme and knows what's expected, making him a reliable member of the Mavs.  He's not going to have success at another team unless there is someone(s) who can draw the same attention and keeps him from having to be #1 or #2 option. 

I think a lot of the trade-for-THJ options are overpriced and we are giving up way too much just to bring in another player to fill the same role.

[cow]

I dont understand why people think Buddy Hield is this gigantic upgrade over THJ.  If you look at things like Real Plus Minus, he would be a downgrade.  And Hield and THJ are both 28 years old, so it's not like Hield more fits the mold of a young up and coming future 3rd star who has tons of ceiling left to reach. 

I think the upside of playing in a bad small market franchise is everyone thinks you could thrive in another situation and it's nothing is really your fault, whereas being in a huge market bad franchise like the Knicks you just get endlessly mocked and become the league poster child for being overpaid.

Hield's shooting is on another level and imagine what he could do catching open looks from Luka.

[Mapka]

Hield's shooting is on another level and imagine what he could do catching open looks from Luka.

I can imaging him sitting on the bench after not convincing Rick. 

We need more than just shooting.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

Hield's shooting is on another level and imagine what he could do catching open looks from Luka.

Whatever increase youre getting in 3 point shooting you'e losing in defense.  And I'm not suggesting THJ is a great defender, but rather that he approaches something resembling average whereas Hield is just absolutely awful.     Even putting aside the personality and ego questions, I think trading for Hield to upgrade over THJ sends out assets to just marginally improve the position (at best).  

To me the obvious upgrade on the roster where you can get the most  bang for your resource buck is upgrading over Burke into a 2nd shot creator who could actually be  on the floor in the crunchtime 5 in a playoff series. If anyone, including the Mavs, really thought Burke could be that guy he wouldn't be signing a contract for 3/10. The Rockets have shown the limitations of 4 guys standing around while 1 guy dribbles for 20 seconds in the playoffs (and the Mavs have shown it in late game situations in the regular season). Some people convinced themselves that Richardson can be that guy, but part of his struggles in Philly is he was asked to do too much of that when he really just needs to be a conventional 3D guy. Between guys like DeRozan, Lowry, LaVine, Rose, Oladipo I think there are going to be guys who can fill that role at varying price points at the trade deadline.

[cow]

Whatever increase youre getting in 3 point shooting you'e losing in defense.  And I'm not suggesting THJ is a great defender, but rather that he approaches something resembling average whereas Hield is just absolutely awful.     Even putting aside the personality and ego questions, I think trading for Hield to upgrade over THJ sends out assets to just marginally improve the position (at best).  

To me the obvious upgrade on the roster where you can get the most  bang for your resource buck is upgrading over Burke into a 2nd shot creator who could actually be  on the floor in the crunchtime 5 in a playoff series.  If anyone, including the Mavs, really thought Burke could be that guy he wouldn't be signing a contract for 3/10.  The Rockets have shown the limitations of 4 guys standing around while 1 guy dribbles for 20 seconds in the playoffs (and the Mavs have shown it in late game situations in the regular season).    Some people convinced themselves that Richardson can be that guy, but part of his struggles in Philly is he was asked to do too much of that when he really just needs to be a conventional 3D guy.

Could you turn Hield into a THJ level defender?  Maybe.  It's all about effort which THJ gives.  You are also comparing THJ in our system in organization to Hield who is in one of the worst franchises.  It would be fairer to compare the two by using THJ's time in New York.  And given the choice of Hield vs NYN THJ, the choice would be even more obvious.  The basis of need in your second paragraph could easily be filled by Hield.  He just seems like the most impactful guy you could reasonably get given our assets that could be the 3rd best option on the team and easily step into the 2nd best option should Luka or KP go down.  

I'm realize and appreciate the concern over attitude and fit.

[michaeltex]

Hield's shooting is on another level and imagine what he could do catching open looks from Luka.

Last season THJ was .434/.398 (FG%/3pt%) while Hield was .429/.394. Hardaway was 34th in 3pt% while Hield was 35th. Hardaway also took 24% fewer FGAs than Hield. 

Do you think Hield will be happy with lower usage? Is the expected improvement enough to justify whatever else is involved (rotation player/rookie/pick)?

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

Buddy Hield is a pure sharpshooter. He's not even close to a shot creator and an offensive initiator. He was forced to do some of that last year after Fox got hurt and was a turnover machine with the worst TOV% of his career.

https://kingsherald.com/articles/buddy-h...ke-walton/

[cow]

Last season THJ was .434/.398 (FG%/3pt%) while Hield was .429/.394. Hardaway was 34th in 3pt% while Hield was 35th. Hardaway also took 24% fewer FGAs than Hield. 

Do you think Hield will be happy with lower usage? Is the expected improvement enough to justify whatever else is involved (rotation player/rookie/pick)?

Hield is a career 41% 3PT Shooter, THJ 35%.  Last year was a bit of an outlier for THJ.  One player had the benefit of the Dallas offense, the other had Luke Walton.  If you need a guy to get you 20, I think either will do.  If you need a guy to get you 30, I know my choice.  

Hield's also on a friendly, long term contract.  If he fits, that's great.  If he doesn't, you could probably move him somewhat easily.

No clue if he'd be happy with lower usage.  There are certainly red flags in his effort and attitude. It's part of the reason he'd be gettable over say someone like Lavine.

[cow]

Buddy Hield is a pure sharpshooter.  He's not even close to a shot creator and an offensive initiator.  He was forced to do some of that last year after Fox got hurt and was a turnover machine with the worst TOV% of his career.

https://kingsherald.com/articles/buddy-h...ke-walton/

God willing, he'd being going from the 3rd option to the 2nd option and not the 2nd option to 1st option like in Sacramento.  

I really think people are forgetting the league wide perception of THJ's contract was with the Knicks.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

I really think people are forgetting the league wide perception of THJ's contract was with the Knicks.

No one is forgetting, it still plagues THJ to this day to the point where even Mavs fans have problems objectively evaluating him.

And, no, Buddy Hield is not an on-ball threat even as a "3rd Option" or whatever ... his handles are bad. The goal is to pair Luka up with someone in the Crunchtime 5 in the final minutes of a playoff series where defenses can't just swarm all over Luka because no one else can create a shot off the dribble.

[cow]

No one is forgetting, it still plagues THJ to this day to the point where even Mavs fans have problems objectively evaluating him.

I'd like to think this board has a pretty good grasp of what THJ is at this point.  I've heaped praise on him, the coaching staff and his dad.  I just think it's a little crazy to give THJ the benefit of the doubt that comes with being here and not affording other players that potential leap.  I'm guilty of this too as I was pretty lukewarm on JRich but, so far so good.

[haveitall]

The help that this team needs is at the PC/C position.  People keep bringing Buddy Hield, other guards, they are not that much better than THJ and JRich.  Those 2 are legit starters.  Unless you replace them with a star what's the point? At PF/C we have DFS who is a small forward and Porzingis who is a good player but needs a real big body to help him protect the paint and fight for rebounds (a draymond green type).  Gobert was too tall and slow and is now off the table.  Giannis would have been perfect, but is off the table.  Not who can be signed while keeping current players.

[cow]

The help that this team needs is at the PC/C position.  People keep bringing Buddy Hield, other guards, they are not that much better than THJ and JRich.  Those 2 are legit starters.  Unless you replace them with a star what's the point? At PF/C we have DFS who is a small forward and Porzingis who is a good player but needs a real big body to help him protect the paint and fight for rebounds (a draymond green type).  Gobert was too tall and slow and is now off the table.  Giannis would have been perfect, but is off the table.  Not who can be signed while keeping current players.

With the money we have tied up on PF/C, I think you just need to develop (Tyler Bey) an limp along with inexpensive vets (Bobi, WCS).  Of the names tossed around, Aaron Gordon is the most interesting but if you get him, I think you need to move Powell.

[Scott41theMavs]

Some people convinced themselves that Richardson can be that guy, but part of his struggles in Philly is he was asked to do too much of that when he really just needs to be a conventional 3D guy.

I think we're still in need of a second playmaker on roster next to Luka, but, no, JRich does not just need to be a conventional 3D guy. Out of himself, THJ, and DFS, he is by far the best at creating his own shot. Given Brunson's tunnel vision, and Burke being more of a Monta type, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that JRich is the Mavs' second-best playmaker. I'm not saying he's anywhere near elite. I'm just saying that saying he is just, or should be just, a 3&D player is absurd.

[Scott41theMavs]

The Mavs shouldn't worry about backup PG until they have a contending-level starting lineup.

My take is not that we should go get a backup PG. My take is rather that a starting-caliber PG, to be played in the starting lineup alongside Luka, should be one of our means to achieve a contending-level starting lineup. Luka has the ball most of the time on offense, but the PG can alleviate the pressure on him big-time (while of course running the team while Luka sits). On defense, Luka guards the SF while the PG guards the PG (duh) and JRich guards the SG.

Ideally, the Mavs' contending starting five looks something like PG-JRich-Luka-PF-KP. So I would regard PG and PF as the last pieces to build that starting five.

[SleepingHero]

I dont understand why people think Buddy Hield is this gigantic upgrade over THJ.

Probably because Buddy Hield is an upgrade over THJ? RPM takes into account teammates, coaches, and a players performance relative to his team's performance on/off court. Buddy has been on BAD teams, some of the worst in the NBA, on what is probably a bottom 3 franchise, with an inept coach, and we're going to use this metric to compare him to THJ's time in Dallas?

I posted this a little while ago, but to really put in perspective of how good a shooter Buddy is:

-Buddy has made more 3's in the last 2 years than Seth Curry has made in his entire career (549 to 446).
-Buddy's worst year as a pro (his rookie year) saw him average 39% from 3, and made 148 threes total. Good for 29th in the league. Seth Curry last year made the most 3's he's ever made as a pro with 145.
-Buddy has 873 made 3's in his career. He's made the most 3's in the shortest amount of time in NBA history. He beat Steph Curry by 8 games.
-Buddy broke Damian Lillards record (599) of most 3pters made in the first 3 seasons of an NBA career with 602 made threes
- THJ has 944 made threes in his entire 7 year career, Buddy is on pace to surpass him this season, having reached THJ's mark in almost half as much time.

-Buddy has been top 5 in 3pt shots made in the NBA the last 2 years
-Buddy has shot on catch and shoot threes the last 4 years: 19/20- 41.3%, 18/19-46.0%, 17/18- 50.2%, 16/17- 42.3%

Buddy is in the same class of shooter as Steph Curry and Ray Allen. We all talk about how Richardson is going to thrive playing next to someone like Luka and how he's going to benefit from the space created. I can only imagine the kind of damage someone like Buddy could have playing next to a guy like Luka. Having that kind of pressure means that you can never leave him open, thus taking pressure off of Luka/Jrich/KP. It'd be akin to leaving Steph Curry wide open for 3. 

I'm also petrified in a THJ regression to the mean. By all accounts last year was a career year for him. He's a career 34% from 3 taking out last year. He improved nearly 6 percentage points playing next to Luka and playing RC's offense. After the shutdown we already have had some smoke that THJ is going back to his previous efficiency. Over 14 games in the bubble THJ put up 34% from 3. Smallish sample size (nearly 20% of the regular season) but it IS something to worry. If THJ isn't hitting 40% from 3, his value plummets significantly. 

Buddy isn't strong on defense, but neither is THJ for that matter. Buddy is also locked up at about the same number as THJ is for the next 4 seasons, while we're already fearing a 20 mil THJ extension.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

Buddy isn't strong on defense, but neither is THJ for that matter. 

THJ isn't strong on defense.  Buddy is a laughing stock. 

This is the problem with evaluating players on defense.   On offense you go  into 5% of conversion rate on 3 point attempts as though it's some massive gulf between players, meanwhile you just wave away marginal differences on defense as they're all pretty much the same.

[SleepingHero]

 On offense you go  into 5% of conversion rate on 3 point attempts as though it's some massive gulf between players, meanwhile you just wave away marginal differences on defense as they're all pretty much the same.

Buddy made nearly 67 more threes than THJ last season. That's 201 more points and nearly an extra 3 a game, and that's with THJ having a career year and Buddy having a down year in terms of efficiency under Walton. 

THJ isn't strong on defense.  Buddy is a laughing stock. 

I mean Buddy and THJ have the same career defensive DBPM (-1.4) . They have the exact same career DRTG (113). Their defensive win shares are within 0.5 points of each other (6.4 for THJ, 5.9 for Buddy). The ONLY defensive stat that paints Buddy as a laughing stock and THJ as above average is DRPM. Which again is an estimation of a players impact on defense based on how many points the team allows on defense PER 100 possessions. 

This is the same stat that puts De'Aaron Fox as the  12th worst defensive point guard in the league, which I don't believe is the case when you look at the entire picture. Perhaps the Kings team as a whole was just bad on defense due to horrific coaching. This is almost further reinforced when we take a look at last season with THJ on the Knicks and Buddy playing under Joerger, their DRPM are almost exactly the same (THJ -1.28, Buddy -1.38)

There are more stats that paint THJ and Buddy as almost equal on the defensive end than there are those that say Buddy is a laughing stock.

[Mapka]

Probably because Buddy Hield is an upgrade over THJ? RPM takes into account teammates, coaches, and a players performance relative to his team's performance on/off court. Buddy has been on BAD teams, some of the worst in the NBA, on what is probably a bottom 3 franchise, with an inept coach, and we're going to use this metric to compare him to THJ's time in Dallas?

I posted this a little while ago, but to really put in perspective of how good a shooter Buddy is:

-Buddy has made more 3's in the last 2 years than Seth Curry has made in his entire career (549 to 446).
-Buddy's worst year as a pro (his rookie year) saw him average 39% from 3, and made 148 threes total. Good for 29th in the league. Seth Curry last year made the most 3's he's ever made as a pro with 145.
-Buddy has 873 made 3's in his career. He's made the most 3's in the shortest amount of time in NBA history. He beat Steph Curry by 8 games.
-Buddy broke Damian Lillards record (599) of most 3pters made in the first 3 seasons of an NBA career with 602 made threes
- THJ has 944 made threes in his entire 7 year career, Buddy is on pace to surpass him this season, having reached THJ's mark in almost half as much time.

-Buddy has been top 5 in 3pt shots made in the NBA the last 2 years
-Buddy has shot on catch and shoot threes the last 4 years: 19/20- 41.3%, 18/19-46.0%, 17/18- 50.2%, 16/17- 42.3%

Buddy is in the same class of shooter as Steph Curry and Ray Allen. We all talk about how Richardson is going to thrive playing next to someone like Luka and how he's going to benefit from the space created. I can only imagine the kind of damage someone like Buddy could have playing next to a guy like Luka. Having that kind of pressure means that you can never leave him open, thus taking pressure off of Luka/Jrich/KP. It'd be akin to leaving Steph Curry wide open for 3. 

I'm also petrified in a THJ regression to the mean. By all accounts last year was a career year for him. He's a career 34% from 3 taking out last year. He improved nearly 6 percentage points playing next to Luka and playing RC's offense. After the shutdown we already have had some smoke that THJ is going back to his previous efficiency. Over 14 games in the bubble THJ put up 34% from 3. Smallish sample size (nearly 20% of the regular season) but it IS something to worry. If THJ isn't hitting 40% from 3, his value plummets significantly. 

Buddy isn't strong on defense, but neither is THJ for that matter. Buddy is also locked up at about the same number as THJ is for the next 4 seasons, while we're already fearing a 20 mil THJ extension.

So you're using Buddy being on a bad Team as a sign he will be better, but want to use THJs carrier numbers as a sign he will regress? 

As said this, THJ on the Knicks was a chucker, but a leader - Buddy is a Diva.