DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Kammrath]

TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive. 

YES. My gut was saying the same, thank you for taking the time to work it through.

[SleepingHero]

I was testing to see if that tweet was visible.  I cannot see it in Light mode.
No good in Dark mode.  Now I can't see any tweets, just the header.  Anyone else having that issue?

Interesting. Haven't had that issue happen to me. Sometimes only the link shows up for the tweet for me in light mode, but then again I'm in light mode 100% of the time. 

Try going back to whatever you were originally on, and then restarting the browser. If not maybe delete your cookies? I honestly don't know just some general advice.

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TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Missed ya cj

[cjeter24]

TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive. 

YES. My gut was saying the same, thank you for taking the time to work it through.

Haha. I'd love for this Booker rumor to be true so people go after him and Mavs scoop up Holiday instead.

[KillerLeft]

Great stuff @"cjeter24". I’m tempted to blow the “wishful thinking” whistle on some of that, but since your wishes coincide with my own, I’ll just say HELL YES!

[Scott41theMavs]

Great stuff @"cjeter24". I’m tempted to blow the “wishful thinking” whistle on some of that, but since your wishes coincide with my own, I’ll just say HELL YES!

CJeter, I'll piggyback off this to say ditto. I just simply don't buy that competition will fail to price Jrue way out of the Mavs' range, but I'll be damn glad if you're right. He's the single best fit in the NBA next to Luka.

[cjeter24]

Great stuff @"cjeter24". I’m tempted to blow the “wishful thinking” whistle on some of that, but since your wishes coincide with my own, I’ll just say HELL YES!

Nah it's not wishful thinking. If you have guys like MPJ, Lavert, on the table it's game over. I remain skeptical that Holiday is the talent that attracts those names period much less on an expiring deal. Only a 19 ppg scorer with average 3pt shooting. Very good defender. All around really good guard. 

He's not been an all star except for 2013. He's such a great fit minus the inconsistent shooting we may overvalue him a bit.

I could even argue that the Mavs may not want to put out their best possible offer for Jrue themselves.

[cow]

Randomness:

There is zero chance Denver trades MPJ, at least not for the level of player that Jrue is. He'll be part of their core moving forward along with Joker and Murray.

While I wouldn't do 18+Delon for Rose, my ears would perk up if it were 31+Delon.

Hayward scares me more than Dipo. I wouldn't want to give either significant, long term money.

[KillerLeft]

Nah to your nah, @"cjeter24". I’m pretty sure it is wishful thinking. I think Holiday is WAY, WAY more valuable to a good team than Tyler Herro, for example, and I’m one of Herro’s biggest fans. Not saying Miami would want Holiday, but that’s just one example. 

I think some of the logic you used to eliminate teams is right on target. Most of it, even. In fact, I don’t feel strongly enough about any one team’s angle in your post to belabor specifics. But, it only takes one of these teams to drive the price up, and then there’s the idea that Holiday is going to prefer some teams over others to consider. The Pelicans are free to trade him anywhere, of course, but I bet they won’t send him somewhere he doesn’t want to go, and if they did, a team who acquired him despite a low level of excitement from him about it would be making a foolish mistake. I think this is relevant because I have a hard time with the idea that he’d be most excited about coming here. Seems like an older group more ready to win would be more his speed.

It’s the SUM of your logic that I find to be wishful thinking, but again, I sure do hope they can get him.

[Kammrath]

It’s the SUM of your logic that I find to be wishful thinking

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it only takes one of these teams to drive the price up

Why don't you indulge us and take ANY team as an example and put yourself in their shoes and give us the logic and the offer that drives the price up.

[KillerLeft]

There is zero chance Denver trades MPJ, at least not for the level of player that Jrue is.  He'll be part of their core moving forward along with Joker and Murray. 

I think you’re right. 

But, I have to say that if I ran that team I’d sooooo be tempted to move that kid right away. This could easily be the best he’ll ever look, health wise. You have Grant to play that position and you know he fits. MPJ appears to be really, really dumb to me. I have major questions about his basketball IQ. I’d sell high, I think.

[cjeter24]

There is zero chance Denver trades MPJ, at least not for the level of player that Jrue is.  He'll be part of their core moving forward along with Joker and Murray. 

I think you’re right. 

But, I have to say that if I ran that team I’d sooooo be tempted to move that kid right away. This could easily be the best he’ll ever look, health wise. You have Grant to play that position and you know he fits. MPJ appears to be really, really dumb to me. I have major questions about his basketball IQ. I’d sell high, I think.

I'd argue that Holiday isn't remotely selling high. Again not trying to bash Holiday. I'm a huge fan. I just think we get overly excited about the player he is.

[KillerLeft]

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it only takes one of these teams to drive the price up

Why don't you indulge us and take ANY team as an example and put yourself in their shoes and give us the logic and the offer that drives the price up.

Easy. 

Denver could base an offer around a sign and trade of Grant. It's not MPJ, but Grant is a fit with Zion. A good fit, actually, and better as a start than any asset the Mavs could offer. 

LAC ditto, with a sign and trade Harrell. Not sure if Harrell is the ideal fit next to Zion (I don't think he is) but it's a possible offer that doesn't totally suck from a team Holiday would probably want to play for. 

I have NO trouble believing the Nets would pull the trigger for one of their young assets. They're the very definition of "we think we can win now." CJ even said as much. 

Those are just the first three I thought of. There are probably more teams interested, and MOST interested teams CAN make better offers than the Mavs. Whether they will make those offers, or where Holiday wants to play...well, those are the questions we can't answer. 

If the point is that the Mavs' offer might be closer to market value than we think, then sure, and I certainly expect that they WANT him. I think they'll try hard to get him. But I confidently stand by my statement that systemically listing every team's intentions and assets in a light that just so happens to make it seem like our team is the front runner for the guy who might be the most intriguing win now trade target available next month is wishful thinking. It very, very obviously is the DEFINITION of wishful thinking. That's not an insult at all, especially in the extremely positive context I used it earlier. It's my wish, too. 

By the way, I have a ton of respect for you, and express it 24/7. Yet somehow, you manage to transparently communicate contempt for my presence here at least once per day. It's a shame because you're one of my favorite people to engage with. I have no idea what I do to get on your nerves, but it is what it is, I suppose.

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I'd argue that Holiday isn't remotely selling high. Again not trying to bash Holiday. I'm a huge fan. I just think we get overly excited about the player he is.

Sorry, we got our wires crossed on this one. 

Cow's post started with "randomness:"

My point was just about MPJ - I'd sell high on HIM. I wasn't making a point (in that post) about Holiday at all.

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For the record, since I see that memories around here aren't very long, I brought up Holliday like two months ago. I HOPE THE MAVS CAN GET HIM (that's probably the 10th time I've expressed that in this forum). 

I don't think it's impossible, like some have said, nor do I think it's likely. I definitely think it costs #18, as that's the first thing New Orleans would want from us. I would think that's the absolute first thing on the table. 

Again, I hope they get Holiday! (11th).

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This guy agrees with @"cjeter24" about the Clippers' chances of landing him:

"You could add Shamet to Beverley and Williams’ contracts — two vets who make the trade work, salary-wise, and would help the young Pelicans build a culture — but is that enough? Very unlikely. You’d have to think, if Pelicans executive David Griffin pulls the trigger, he’d want a more appealing young piece (and probably a pick) in return.

Would Clipper center Ivica Zubac move the trade needle? Not as much as Denver’s Michael Porter Jr. or another young, rising wing. And the Pelicans probably aren’t in deep need of a big man since Zion Williamson’s best future position is probably as a starting small-ball center. The Clippers just don’t seem to have the necessary pieces. Neither do their Staples Center neighbors."

https://theathletic.com/2179450/2020/11/...stination/

[Tyler]

Remove OKC, Indy for obvious reasons.

You don't think the Pacers want all the Holidays?

Come to think of it, Indy would be an interesting trade partner for anyone looking for a 3-way deal for Jrue. Myles Turner seems like a great young 3&D center to pair with Zion.

Something like Maxi/Wright to Indy, Turner/Brunson to NO, and Jrue to Dallas might make sense. Add picks to taste. Indy gets cheaper versions of Turner and Oladipo, NO gets a starting center and a Jrue replacement as a ballhandler, and Dallas gets their ideal backcourt running mate for Luka.

BTW, the fun thing about that deal is that if Jrue can be talked into a starting salary of $19mm it's also salary-neutral in terms of cap space in '21. He may not do that for just anyone, but I bet he could be talked into it if it meant adding Giannis.

[omahen]

So I'll bite on saying Jrue will cost too much to acquire. I don't think he will cost nearly as much as you think. Or frankly that he should in a given year.

Well, actually you proved through your speach that this is not true  I agree - Mavs have a chance if Denver and Nets are out. Unfortunately, Jrue is exactly what Denver needs. Same could be said for Nets. 

You say, he might not cost as much as we think. If the price comes down to THJ, Brunson and a pick, the amount of teams that can match this offer widens. Denver can match this without adding Porter. Nets have a ton of possibilities to match it. Clippers have Zubac and Shamet as very interesting young players with good rotation players like Beverly to sallary match. Unlike you I can totally see Wiggins+#2+2021 Minnesota pick deal (throw in Pascal if needed). Horford, Thyulle and a bunch of picks is another competitive offer. 

I think Jrue will create an intense bidding war with the winner paying a treasure at the end of it.

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Indy gets cheaper versions of Turner and Oladipo

Wright being cheaper version of Oladipo is funny

[Mapka]

I think that would be a decent option/move.  I read the Lakers want Rose as well.

I don't think this would be a good move by Mavs. Wright was brought to play defense next to Luka and be poor mans secondary creator. Rose doesn't play defense, so his role would be on the bench and it is already crowded there with Curry and Brunson. It would be cheaper for us to sign Burke than waste #18 on Rose imho.

That's funny. 
It's something I would consider, if nothing else is possible and no one at 18 is worth it. 

Rose is clear starter and a net positiv on the floor. He could be this better Burke we are looking for.

[Kammrath]

you manage to transparently communicate contempt for my presence here at least once per day. It's a shame because you're one of my favorite people to engage with. I have no idea what I do to get on your nerves, but it is what it is, I suppose.

Dude, this must be a case of misreading the text without having the context of non-verbals etc. 

I have ZERO contempt for you and never have. This is very confusing and surprising to me. I am very sorry that the words I type have communicated that to you, it was never their intention. Seriously. 

My personality FYI:

1) I am either intensely curious, investigating an issue (this intensity can be misread).

2) Or I am being silly with maybe a little non-serious sarcasm splashed in.

[omahen]

Rose is clear starter

I am not sure about that. I think he is a 6th man. His defense is non existing

[DanSchwartzgan]

Well, get ready for some surprising numbers as Hollinger continues his series placing values on the current crop of FA's.  Today is the PF position.  Forget AD (worth $43mm).  He's staying in LA.  Forget Batum and OPJ as they are not rated because they will likely pick up their PO.  Still, there are 10 players with ratings above the MLE:


$19.1mm  Gallinari  (Team to watch is Phoenix.  Very good player, but OKC may rebuild...and the other teams with Room all suck)

$19.0mm  Bertans  (May go cheaper if he stays...see above...as Washington will have big LT issues a year from now on Beal extension)

$14.2mm  Millsap  (Bad playoffs, but great regular season.  Probably goes somewhere for a 1 + 1 MLE deal)

$13.9mm  DJJ  (Wow.  Probably gets the MLE, but Super finisher and great zone defender at 23.  Small cap hold, Miami could do big 1 year)


MLE Level

$11.9mm  Parker (Yes, Jabari.  27 pp100 on .57 TS%.  Small ball 5 who is only 25)

$11.8mm  RHJ (4 position defender who is a good passer.  Can't shoot 3's, but like DJJ is a plus defender.  Probably gets 1/2 MLE)


Less than MLE

$7.9mm  Saric  (Suns may pull the ®.  Best role is secondary ball handler.  Suns got better when he was removed from starters)

$7.5mm  Grant (Yes, Jerami. Most overrated in FA crop.  Denver massively better when he sat.  MLE isn't massive overpay, but more would be)

$5.3mm  Hernangomez (25, Career 35.9% from 3 and a good rebounder)


Boucher, K. Williams, J. Green, Melo, J. Green, Caboclo, Bender and Kaminsky are in the $3-$5mm.  He has MKG for the minimum.

Some national writers have suggested DJJ for Dallas.  He was probably a target in the deal that fell apart that sent Butler to Miami.  He is super young for a UFA and having one of him or DFS on the court at all times would help team D.  By Hollinger's numbers he'd be a better use of the MLE than Grant.  One issue would be playing him and Powell at the same time.  One space killer who is good at cuts, rolls and dives is OK.  Two won't work.

On the agent front, Saric and RHJ are both Excel guys.

[omahen]

If this would be a position we would be looking to spend MLE on, I certainly like some of the options. I don't really understand how DJJ falls into PF category with him being 6-6 at 210 pounds. I can't imagine him going defensively against strongest SF yet alone PF. 

I really like Saric and Hernagomez for MLE, but it might be some EU bias from my side  I think Hernangomez is underrated and he could prove much better with consistent minutes.

[Hypermav]

interesting that he values DJJ so much more than Grant.  Even saying Grant was an overrated player.  

Dan, the 1 + 1 for Millsap, is that a Giannis killer in your opinion.  I guess we would have to wait and see if we dumped Wright and others to make up for the Millsap salary going into 2021.