DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Scott41theMavs]

My what-you-smokin-Scott offseason for the Mavs:

THJ opts out and signs a big new contract with the Knicks or some other stool pigeons.
The Mavs trade Wright and 18 for Gary Trent Jr.
The Mavs trade Curry for JRich.
The Mavs draft either Tiger Bay/Woodard/Reed at 31.
The Mavs SnT Powell (what am I smokin') for Grant.
The Mavs use part of the MLE on Burke.
WCS opts in.

Luka/Brunson
JRich/Burke
Trent/DFS
Grant/Maxi/31
KP/WCS

Should have some flexibility in tradeability next offseason as needed for Giannis. A very competitive, scrappy team this year, quite a bit better than last year IMHO. Also, pretty sure that offseason could be done without THJ walking, with a little more pop on offense.

THJ opting out is even more "what are you smoking" than any of the others.

Do you at least like that team?

[KillerLeft]

Do you at least like that team?

Oh, sure!

[Tyler]

Plenty of stuff here. Most directly Mavs related:
- Mavs are willing to take large salaries to acquire a star player. Nothing specific, what kind of players this describes. The expiring ones like Hayward or Lowry or long term ones like Harris? I trust the likes of Griffin and Love are not seen as stars anymore.
- Dallas is also mentioned as expected to show interest in Grant

Interesting. Thanks.

I like the idea of Dallas being as opportunistic as possible. There are a good number of teams out there who could be in real trouble revenue-wise without full stadiums, so offering to help them out in return for a star player makes sense. And if it doesn't work out, then they save their money to buy one in '21.

Now to put together a list of teams in money trouble...

To start, Philly and Houston both are up there with huge payrolls and a motivation to make changes.

[omahen]

Now to put together a list of teams in money trouble...

I saw Houston, OKC and Indidana listed as teams with owners not doing great this days. Out of the stars these teams have, Oladipo might fit the description most. But which are the bad contracts mentioned? Lamb? Lief? McDermott? None of them really really bad contract. 

Honestly, I can't think of an example that would fit the Charania description. But important message I can see - Mavs are willing to spend.

[Kammrath]

Cato is very down on Oubre and wouldn't trade Wright+Jackson+#18 for him, which is really puzzling for me. I mean, there can't be many better deals lined up for that kind of package? He is also down on Hield.

I would NOT trade #18 for Oubre or Hield. NO THANKS.

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WCS+Brunson+Jackson+#18 for Covington

#18 might be too rich for me for RoCo and I LOVE him. He is about 30 and really started to look run down. But if he isn't asked to play C he might have lots more in the tank.

[SleepingHero]

#18 might be too rich for me for RoCo and I LOVE him. He is about 30 and really started to look run down. But if he isn't asked to play C he might have lots more in the tank

Lemme get this straight, you'd be more than willing and happy to trade #18 for someone like Schroeder or OPJ, but waiver for trading it for RoCo???

RoCo is 10000 times better than either one. Comparing OPJ to RoCo (since thats the easiest 1-1 comparison) RoCo is what we all wish OPJ could be if we traded for him. And he doesn't have the injury history to worry about. Plus RoCo is locked up to a cost controlled salary, while OPJ will most likely leave in 2021 in the search of a big contract the Mavs won't provide. 

RoCo also makes Maxi expendable. Given that RoCo can effectively guard 1-5 easily.

[omahen]

Lemme get this straight, you'd be more than willing and happy to trade #18 for someone like Schroeder or OPJ, but waiver for trading it for RoCo???

Kamm has watched one draft video too many  Totally unrealistic evaluation of the #18.

[Kammrath]

RoCo is 10000 times better than either one.

That's just not true. 

RoCo is AWESOME, but he started to fade this year. His style of play may not age well. AND his three point shooting is worse than both other guys. Both other guys are GOOD, PLUS defenders. They are NOT RoCo, but they do other things he cannot. And they are younger and haven't been ridden hard like RoCo.

I am just nervous about trading #18 for someone who breaks down, when I think you might be able to GET a 3&D guy at 18.

[StepBackJay]

#18 might be too rich for me for RoCo and I LOVE him. He is about 30 and really started to look run down. But if he isn't asked to play C he might have lots more in the tank

Lemme get this straight, you'd be more than willing and happy to trade #18 for someone like Schroeder or OPJ, but waiver for trading it for RoCo???

RoCo is 10000 times better than either one. Comparing OPJ to RoCo (since thats the easiest 1-1 comparison) RoCo is what we all wish OPJ could be if we traded for him. And he doesn't have the injury history to worry about. Plus RoCo is locked up to a cost controlled salary, while OPJ will most likely leave in 2021 in the search of a big contract the Mavs won't provide. 

RoCo also makes Maxi expendable. Given that RoCo can effectively guard 1-5 easily.

I love RoCo as well. Any way you would part with Maxi for RoCo? The advantage for Houston is that Maxi is younger, could fit as a 4/5 hybrid. For the Mavs RoCo would be a starting PF and fit better than Maxi did in the playoffs. I think I might do that deal straight-up just bc you net a starter. I would probably not give up 18 as part of that deal.

If you did RoCo for Maxi then you could still use 18 for Schroder potentially. That gives you 6 guys that can start. In this scenario you probably keep Schroder on the bench.

[Kammrath]

Kamm has watched one draft video too many  Totally unrealistic evaluation of the #18.

Ha!

My evaluation is that IF you hit on #18 (about 47% chance) then you get a contributor on a ROOKIE contract who fits the timeline of Luka....just a HUGE upside to this. 

But if you trade that chance, I want something that is not too risky. RoCo just gives me pause. Guys like him can hit a wall around 30 years old and his shooting percentages were already terrible in HOU (31% from three...yuck). I LOVE RoCo, it just makes me nervous. If the Mavs do it, I support it.

[SleepingHero]

#18 might be too rich for me for RoCo and I LOVE him. He is about 30 and really started to look run down. But if he isn't asked to play C he might have lots more in the tank

Lemme get this straight, you'd be more than willing and happy to trade #18 for someone like Schroeder or OPJ, but waiver for trading it for RoCo???

RoCo is 10000 times better than either one. Comparing OPJ to RoCo (since thats the easiest 1-1 comparison) RoCo is what we all wish OPJ could be if we traded for him. And he doesn't have the injury history to worry about. Plus RoCo is locked up to a cost controlled salary, while OPJ will most likely leave in 2021 in the search of a big contract the Mavs won't provide. 

RoCo also makes Maxi expendable. Given that RoCo can effectively guard 1-5 easily.

I love RoCo as well. Any way you would part with Maxi for RoCo? The advantage for Houston is that Maxi is younger, could fit as a 4/5 hybrid. For the Mavs RoCo would be a starting PF and fit better than Maxi did in the playoffs. I think I might do that deal straight-up just bc you net a starter. I would probably not give up 18 as part of that deal.

If you did RoCo for Maxi then you could still use 18 for Schroder potentially. That gives you 6 guys that can start. In this scenario you probably keep Schroder on the bench.

I'd consider trading Maxi. But in any case Houston would have to take 1 of Wright or Powell in that case, since I assume in this scenario we won't be sending 18. 

One creative scenario, that I doubt Houston does is Maxi+Wright+18+31 for Tucker+RoCo. Rockets get a replacement big for RoCo that is a great defender and can guard 3-5. They transition away from small ball a bit, but do a half measure since Maxi can play in some small lineups and stretch the floor. They get 2 picks to rebuild with. 

Mavs save 5 mil next summer (which coincidentally is enough for a max contract in 21) and add 2 great wing defenders with length that can guard 1-5.

[dirkfansince1998]

RoCo is 10000 times better than either one.

That's just not true. 

RoCo is AWESOME, but he started to fade this year. His style of play may not age well. AND his three point shooting is worse than both other guys. Both other guys are GOOD, PLUS defenders. They are NOT RoCo, but they do other things he cannot. And they are younger and haven't been ridden hard like RoCo.

I am just nervous about trading #18 for someone who breaks down, when I think you might be able to GET a 3&D guy at 18.

Not really sure how RoCo faded this season. In Minnesota he was the only plus defender in the starting five and had to create his own shot more than ever before in his career. I´d argue that he did a good job on both ends. Averaging 16/7/1 on 57% TS with 2stls/1blk.
In Houston he played full time center. Averaging 13/9/2 on 53% TS. His offense suffered (especially his 3-point shooting, only 31.5% in the regular season) but his ability to play help defense and guard multiple positions was the sole reason why Houstons defense did not collapse. He averaged prime Ben Wallace / Andrei Kirilenko numbers on defense...1.7stls/2.4blks.

In the playoffs teams started to take advantage of the Rockets lack of size but RoCo played as good as anyone could expect. With growing exhaustion Tucker and RoCo started to get dominated in the paint by bigger and stronger players. Rebounding was a big issue and RoCo only averaged 5rebs per game in the playoffs but at least he made up for it on offense. Shooting 50% from 3 on 6 attempts per game.

No doubt in my mind that RoCo is the perfect PF/SF next to KP. He basically is Draymond without the playmaking ability but with a slightly better jumper.
Sadly I still don´t see a way to trade for him. The Rockets won´t rebuild. They might make a few changes but RoCo is probably their best asset apart from Harden. Probably takes more than #18 to get him.

Maybe something like Curry + 18 for RoCo. Or Wright + 18 + 31.

[SleepingHero]

Kamm has watched one draft video too many  Totally unrealistic evaluation of the #18.

Ha!

My evaluation is that IF you hit on #18 (about 47% chance) then you get a contributor on a ROOKIE contract who fits the timeline of Luka....just a HUGE upside to this. 

But if you trade that chance, I want something that is not too risky. RoCo just gives me pause. Guys like him can hit a wall around 30 years old and his shooting percentages were already terrible in HOU (31% from three...yuck). I LOVE RoCo, it just makes me nervous. If the Mavs do it, I support it.

Where is that 47% chance coming from and how do you define "hit"? Are we talking about top 100 player in the league? Top 50? How many mpg can we realistically assume the #18 pick can get and contribute day 1 on a team that is looking to take the next step in the playoffs? 

While the pick CAN develop into something in the future, the Mavs are in a unique position. With Luka's meteoric rise to MVP caliber player, the Mavs are legit contenders. They can take the next step and make a deep playoff run next year just with Luka and KP. With that in mind, the room for mistakes are slim, and we can't afford to hope a rookie can come out and be a day 1 rotation player for a playoff team.

It rarely ever happens in the first year. The only ones that come to mind are Tyler Herro (13), Donovan Mitchell (13) Steven Adams (12) Kawhi Leonard (15), Paul George (10), as first round picks between 10-20 that contributed significantly to a playoff team in their rookie years. 

I don't think this draft has any all-NBA/all-star in the range of where we are picking. And we shouldn't overvalue this pick.
We'll see in time how wrong I am. Given the fact that the Mavs are one of the few contenders that can actually build with cap space and add needed help for their MVP candidate, the importance of the draft is reduce imo. Once Luka's Rose rule extension kicks in, then the Mavs should shift their focus away from free agency and cultivate through the draft. Now's the best time to leverage draft assets.

[Kammrath]

Where is that 47% chance coming from and how do you define "hit"?

It is from draft analysis over the years. For picks 16-20 there is about 47% chance the player becomes AT LEAST a rotation role player or starter or All-Star (and has a 10+ year NBA career). 53% chance he is a deep bench player or a bust. 

I do not want #18 because it means that player will contribute in 2021, I want that player because he could have a 10 year career next to Luka.

[StepBackJay]

Its a nice thought Kamm thought many share but then we know it's not going to happen. #18 will be going to another team this year.

[KillerLeft]

Its a nice thought Kamm thought many share but then we know it's not going to happen. #18 will be going to another team this year.

I totally believe they're shopping the pick, and I think it's more likely than not to be gone, too. 

But then I notice that there are rumors about 4-5 teams wanting to trade out of this draft altogether, basically because they don't like the draft, and wonder just how much value that #18 pick really has in a trade. 

The NBA is the best league for off-seasons. This is like torture, but in a good way.

[Kammrath]

But then I notice that there are rumors about 4-5 teams wanting to trade out of this draft altogether

I am for the Mavs trading #18 and then buying another pick like #26 or 30. I do not think there is much difference in this draft from 10-50.

[SleepingHero]

For picks 16-20 there is about 47% chance the player becomes AT LEAST a rotation role player or starter or All-Star (and has a 10+ year NBA career). 53% chance he is a deep bench player or a bust. 

How many seasons, on average, does it take for a pick 16-20 to develop into a rotation/starter/all-star player/?

How many of those players were picked to playoff teams and remained with those teams and developed into that kind of player? 

I think 18 CAN become a good player next to Luka. But I think the Mavs will have an easier time finding a player that IS just as good if not better than whatever we think 18 can be. And we can find that player right now. In the short term. And the Mavs can afford this type of roster building because Luka is on his rookie contract and the Mavs have more space than they ever will with Luka on the roster. We should take advantage of this unique situation.

[KillerLeft]

With Luka's meteoric rise to MVP caliber player, the Mavs are legit contenders. They can take the next step and make a deep playoff run next year just with Luka and KP. 

I agree with the overall take in this post, but you might want to pump the brakes on this part. 

We now know that the Clippers were a mess and didn't even want to be there. If we're being real, this should have an impact on how we view the series in hindsight. It literally got their coach fired. I watched every playoff game once the Mavs were eliminated, and there wasn't a single second round team that I can confidently say the Mavs would beat in a 7 game series as presently constructed (unless Houston blows it up). They still need to add a lot of talent, and even then it's going to take a few years for it to gel. 

I think they're firmly ensconced as a playoff team, and if they have a great regular season and earn a high seed I can see them trouncing a low seed in the first round, maybe. But either LA team? Golden State? Man, I don't think so, and they'd have to finish better than 6th to avoid one of them in the first round, probs. 

I think the sky is the limit for the next 10 years, but it might be happier around here if we all manage our expectations a bit.

[StepBackJay]

But then I notice that there are rumors about 4-5 teams wanting to trade out of this draft altogether

I am for the Mavs trading #18 and then buying another pick like #26 or 30. I do not think there is much difference in this draft from 10-50.

Do teams still buy late round picks?

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I think 18 CAN become a good player next to Luka. But I think the Mavs will have an easier time finding a player that IS just as good if not better than whatever we think 18 can be. And we can find that player right now. In the short term. And the Mavs can afford this type of roster building because Luka is on his rookie contract and the Mavs have more space than they ever will with Luka on the roster. We should take advantage of this unique situation.

I think so too. Also Mavs sadly don't value these mid-round picks. Remember we had pick 13 in 2013 and passed on Giannis because he was 3 years away and Mavs wanted to git gud now (Dwight Howard)! They traded down for Shane Larkin (#18 btw!) and the most overrated player on DB.com boards of all time, superstar Ricky Ledo.