DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[omahen]

I do feel like the Mavs could do more with their 2 picks this year than just White and Young though...

You are way overvaluing the value of the picks we have.

[Mavs2019]

I do feel like the Mavs could do more with their 2 picks this year than just White and Young though...

You are way overvaluing the value of the picks we have.

 More likely overvaluing the Mavs ability to draft. Factoring in contract size, age and such, it´s not crazy to think a good front office could actually do better at #18 and #31. White was a #29 pick himself and Young is pretty up there in age.

From 2008 to 2018, here are the picks #17-19 and #30-32. Obviously there were much better players available later than #32, too.

2008: Hibbert, McGee, Hickson and Giddens, Pekovic , Sharpe and Chalmzers, DA Jordan, Asik
2009: J. Holiday, Lawson, Teague and Eyenga, Pendergraph, Taylor and Beverley, Danny Green, DeColo
2010: Seraphin, Bledsoe, Bradley and Orton, Hayward, Pleiß and Whiteside, Bjelica, Stephenson,
2011: Shumpert, Singleton, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic, Harper and Parsons, Bertans, Thomas
2012: T. Zeller, Terrence Jones, Nicholson and Ezeli, Taylor, Satoransky and Draymond, Crowder, Middleton, Barton
2013: Schroeder, Larkin, Karasev and Goodwin, Nedovic, Crabbe and S. Curry, Muscala, Covington
2014: James Young, Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris and Huestis, Kyle Anderson, Inglis and Joe Harris, Dinwiddie, Jokic
2015: Vaugn, Dekker, Jerian Grant and Looney, Osman, Harrell and Holmes, Richardson, Connaughton
2016: Baldwin, Elleson, Malik Beasley and Zubac, Jones, Davis and Brogdon, DFS, FVV
2017: Wilson, Leaf, John Collins and Josh Hart, Frank Jackson, Reed and D. Brooks, Bryant, Iwundu
2018: DiVincenzo, L. Walker, Huerter and Spellman, Okobo, Jevon Carter and Mitchell Robinson, Trent Jr., Kurucs,

So I´d say it´s actually not that far-fetched to say you can do better than White/Young, especially the upside is so much higher and affordable. Only 2012 was a complete bust in the #18 range, but then look at the players that went 34-40.

[omahen]

So I´d say it´s actually not that far-fetched to say you can do better than White/Young, especially the upside is so much higher and affordable. Only 2012 was a complete bust in the #18 range, but then look at the players that went 34-40.

Your list clearly shows you can also do far worse than White and Young in the draft. Young and White are a sure thing, #18 and #31 turning into players of White and Young quality is not a sure thing. The conclusion is simple. And you are not just giving away picks for "bad contracts", you are also trading players we think are worthless.

If you want to prove draft is more than a play of chance, show me a front office that consistently picks valuable role players in the range of 18-32.

[Mapka]

So I´d say it´s actually not that far-fetched to say you can do better than White/Young, especially the upside is so much higher and affordable. Only 2012 was a complete bust in the #18 range, but then look at the players that went 34-40.

Your list clearly shows you can also do far worse than White and Young in the draft. Young and White are a sure thing, #18 and #31 turning into players of White and Young quality is not a sure thing. The conclusion is simple. And you are not just giving away picks for "bad contracts", you are also trading players we think are worthless.

If you want to prove draft is more than a play of chance, show me a front office that consistently picks valuable role players in the range of 18-32.

I think this trade might be fair.

But I'd like to know who's the one falling in the draft or if there are ways to trade up.

I think Delon for Young can be done later. Without a pick or with a future second if we really want to. 

GSW had a pretty good run with their picks lately.

[StepBackJay]

2018: DiVincenzo, L. Walker, Huerter and Spellman, Okobo, Jevon Carter and Mitchell Robinson, Trent Jr., Kurucs

That's a pretty good list. I would be bolding Mitchell Robinson and Trent Jr as well.

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Derrick White doesn't do anything for me. We don't need guards, we need wings. I would put Jrue as an exception because he is an elite perimeter defender and can play both guard spots. If you aren't getting an elite player like that then you aren't really doing any better than just putting Seth or Brunson in the starting lineup.

I want athletic, 3D wings, the more the merrier.

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Actually I forgot how good a defender White is so maybe I would do #18 for him...

[Mavs2019]

So I´d say it´s actually not that far-fetched to say you can do better than White/Young, especially the upside is so much higher and affordable. Only 2012 was a complete bust in the #18 range, but then look at the players that went 34-40.

Your list clearly shows you can also do far worse than White and Young in the draft. Young and White are a sure thing, #18 and #31 turning into players of White and Young quality is not a sure thing. The conclusion is simple. And you are not just giving away picks for "bad contracts", you are also trading players we think are worthless.

If you want to prove draft is more than a play of chance, show me a front office that consistently picks valuable role players in the range of 18-32.

Yeah I think the chance to draft a 15-20% chance to draft a long-term NBA starter far exceeds the prospects of acquiring two players you can also easily get via FA.

Thad Young cost 10M, when he was two years younger and not coming off his worst season in a decade. I seriously can´t figure out why he has become such a desirable target. He has by far the worst RTG per 100 possessions among the Chicago bigs at -7. I always make fun of Fellatio, but his role-playing numbers are pretty similar. Better rebounder, better FG and FT% percentage, better RTG and he´s on an expiring contract. That I can even mention them in the same breath and it is not completely laughable makes a 32 year old Young a complete no-go.

Millsap, Favors, Ibaka, Henson, Morris brothers, Solomon Hill, Harkless, RHJ, MKG. That´s really a position/type of player you can easily fill in free agency for the same or less money.

[Hypermav]

https://www.nbaanalysis.net/2020/09/12/p...ka-doncic/

[Mavs2019]

2018: DiVincenzo, L. Walker, Huerter and Spellman, Okobo, Jevon Carter and Mitchell Robinson, Trent Jr., Kurucs

That's a pretty good list. I would be bolding Mitchell Robinson and Trent Jr as well.

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Derrick White doesn't do anything for me. We don't need guards, we need wings. I would put Jrue as an exception because he is an elite perimeter defender and can play both guard spots. If you aren't getting an elite player like that then you aren't really doing any better than just putting Seth or Brunson in the starting lineup.

I want athletic, 3D wings, the more the merrier.

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Actually I forgot how good a defender White is so maybe I would do #18 for him...

Yeah, but why would the Spurs let him go. That´s where this whole plan falls apart anyway. On one hand people argue you can´t find a player as good as White at #18 (you obviously can as White himself was the #29 pick). On the other hand if it were true it completely defeats the argument why the Spurs would do the trade.

[omahen]

Yeah, but why would the Spurs let him go. That´s where this whole plan falls apart anyway.

Well, this was my whole point. That Wright (or whoever it was) +#18 is not enough for White. Thanks for confirming.

On one hand people argue you can´t find a player as good as White at #18

Please quote who said that. What was said was, that it is not sure the player at #18 will actually become good. Far from sure!

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https://www.nbaanalysis.net/2020/09/12/p...ka-doncic/

So not only we get Jrue, Pels aso throw in Hart for THJ, Wright, #18 and #31. Yeah right...

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Thad Young cost 10M, when he was two years younger and not coming off his worst season in a decade. I seriously can´t figure out why he has become such a desirable target.

Because he can be realistically obtained for a crappy contract like Wright and probably fits our team much better than Wright.

[StepBackJay]

I am not sure what White's market value is. He's a good player but not amazing. They might rather trade him for a better fitting player vs a draft pick though. So ya he isn't super high on my radar. 

I still like Crowder, Justin Holiday options among others. Mo Harkless isn't a favorite but he is a guy that will be available and probably cheaply. Rick would need to fix his shot. He does bring defense.

Thad Young would be easy to get bc of his age and contract. You would have to be sending away Wright in that scenario. Young's 6 mil guaranteed is still an issue in 2021, I think the Mavs would rather have zero guaranteed than even 6 bc of the uncertainty around the cap.

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Now if you could send Powell for T. Young then you really have a good deal. That might be the only scenario I could see Powell getting shipped, altho still unlikely.

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In terms of #18, #31 I think there's an almost zero percent chance they are drafting someone at #18 unless they think it's a sure-fire star in the making. #31 is definitely a possibility if they like a player since they have more flexibility in how the contract is structured. I believe #18 gets traded for *something*. Either a player, a future 1st round pick or a trade-down. 

A future first would make it easier to trade THJ post-opt-in during the offseason or at the TDL and would be easy enough to acquire. A team wanting to draft a guy they like could simply trade a future lotto-protected 1st rounder and maybe a 2nd or two for the guy they like at #18. Mavs would basically retain a 1st round asset and cap space, rather than drafting a prospect who might not play much and eats up future cap space.

[Jason Terry]

2018: DiVincenzo, L. Walker, Huerter and Spellman, Okobo, Jevon Carter and Mitchell Robinson, Trent Jr., Kurucs

That's a pretty good list. I would be bolding Mitchell Robinson and Trent Jr as well.

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Derrick White doesn't do anything for me. We don't need guards, we need wings. I would put Jrue as an exception because he is an elite perimeter defender and can play both guard spots. If you aren't getting an elite player like that then you aren't really doing any better than just putting Seth or Brunson in the starting lineup.

I want athletic, 3D wings, the more the merrier.

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Actually I forgot how good a defender White is so maybe I would do #18 for him...

Yeah, but why would the Spurs let him go. That´s where this whole plan falls apart anyway. On one hand people argue you can´t find a player as good as White at #18 (you obviously can as White himself was the #29 pick). On the other hand if it were true it completely defeats the argument why the Spurs would do the trade.

To them it wouldn’t be just 18 vs White. They’re at $119 million before capholds for players like Forbes. We could save them about 5 million on next season’s cap. That matters especially: 1) covid effects on tickets 2) spurs primed for rebuild 3) already over cap and projections cap will be lower

[DanSchwartzgan]

To them it wouldn’t be just 18 vs White. They’re at $119 million before capholds for players like Forbes. We could save them about 5 million on next season’s cap. That matters especially: 1) covid effects on tickets 2) spurs primed for rebuild 3) already over cap and projections cap will be lower

I'll add that as an RFA in 21, he might be more valuable to another team than he is to San Antonio.  Could White start here?  Probably.  Does he start in SA?  No.  I could see White as part of a two player Plan Powder split in 21 and I could see his number at greater than the MLE.  Would he be worth that as a third guard in SA?

If anyone can find a replacement for White at #18 it is SA.  They have found so many late 20's gems over the years they would look at 18 and say "this is too easy".

Glad you found the board.

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Thad Young cost 10M, when he was two years younger and not coming off his worst season in a decade. I seriously can´t figure out why he has become such a desirable target.

Because he can be realistically obtained for a crappy contract like Wright and probably fits our team much better than Wright.

True.  Who knows how difficult/easy Wright will be able to move.  He was probably a mistake here and fans in Chicago look at Young as a mistake there.  I have no idea what the plan is with Dunn, but if he isn't retained, Wright slots in as a 3rd guard between LaVine and White.  As I mentioned yesterday, a SW of Wright is $2.8mm vs. $6mm guaranteed for Young.  If Chicago tries to hold some dry powder for 2021, as they should, it is cheaper to SW Wright than eat the non-guaranteed part of Young.

But, I think there is more to it than that.  Young's three strongest areas, according to BB Index are Perimeter D, Perimeter Shooting and Playmaking.  Those happen to be the biggest areas of need for Dallas.  I think you have to give anyone on Boylan's 28th ranked O a little grace.  Especially, if they have a history of being better than what they showed in Chicago last season.  BB Index ranks leaders in various categories and Young has been Top 25 in Perimeter D in each of the last 3 seasons (25, 3, 23).  Their rank has multiple inputs from various elements of Perimeter D.  KP and Maxi provide good rim protection.  We need improved perimeter D from just about every other position.  Young adds a ton there which is especially valuable in the west where many of the best players are Power Wings.

Young was in the 67th percentile as a perimeter shooter last season with an openness rating in the 27th percentile.  Luka raises the TS% of just about everyone he plays with by about .30.  Young will get much better looks here.  When he doesn't, he's highly rated for his position as both a driver and a passer.  And, his history is one of being a plus player in on minus off measurements.  Third Star...No.  But, there is a lot to like here.  Insert him guarding Kawhi and let Maxi play his usual good bench D and keep DFS on Paul George at all times and we would have been much more successful against LAC.

[Jason Terry]

Whatever trade we make will need to come before/during the draft. 18, 31, Wright and Jackson might be the best we can offer in trade for a few years. Look for us to be opportunistic.

Some have Hardaway and Powell(or even Maxi/Seth) in proposed trades, but it seems the MBT will look to keep as much of last years team as possible. Chemistry matters in sports. THj and DP are both team first players that contribute to chemistry. Both stick around for another year at least

The goal in trade should be to get 2 solid contributors. We do that and we can go into FA with our MLE and go best player available

[StepBackJay]

Schroeder is interesting bc we know OKC is going to be in sell off mode. Dennis had a great year and is expiring so OKC should get a good return. I think OKC would definitely do 18 + Wright and Jackson for Schroeder unless they get a better offer. 18 might be the highest pick they would get but seems a bit rich.

I am not sure what role Dennis would have with all the guards we already have. I would definitely do the trade if it was Powell and Wright simply for cap reasons.

[KillerLeft]

I think OKC would definitely do 18 + Wright and Jackson for Schroeder unless they get a better offer. 18 might be the highest pick they would get but seems a bit rich.

If that's true, I take the deal and hang up before they change their mind. 

I'm higher on Powell than most, so not sure I include him in that deal, especially since you guys have all convinced me that 2021 FA isn't likely to be a factor.

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A trade for Schroeder would mean that Burke is gone, and that the full MLE is in play for a wing.

[omahen]

I think OKC would definitely do 18 + Wright and Jackson for Schroeder unless they get a better offer. 18 might be the highest pick they would get but seems a bit rich.

I think you are right here, the offer is fair. Wright is a bit negative, but not much. I doubt they would get a better pick, perhaps just a better expiring contract.

I am not sure what role Dennis would have with all the guards we already have.

Exactly the role Burke had in the playoffs. Luka-Schroeder-THJ-DFS (or Kleber) - KP is a good starting five. Brunson-Curry-MLE-Kleber-Powell is a good bench.

[Kammrath]

I think OKC would definitely do 18 + Wright and Jackson for Schroeder

Schroder was +8.8 (!!!!) on/off defensively with OKC last year. They gave up 111.8 pts when he sat (114.9 in the playoffs) and only 103.0 when he played (103.8 in the playoffs). 

Point being: He is a positive defensively and can guard the little guys that Luka can't AND he is an incredible sparkplug on offense that I think would be unstoppable in RC's system. 

He is VERY high on my list for trade targets with the likes of OPJ, Tomas, Jrue, etc.

[Mavs2019]

The Nuggets performance against the Clippers shows us that we might not be as close as we think we are.  We are exactly the 7th best team. You are throwing around assets for 2021 UFAs like Schroeder or Holiday, as if they´d make us contenders next season.  We´ll need to nail the draft this season and FA in 2020/2021 to set ourselves up for multiple actual runs in the future. Our time is not 2020/2021. It´s 2021+.

[chaparral]

I think OKC would definitely do 18 + Wright and Jackson for Schroeder unless they get a better offer. 18 might be the highest pick they would get but seems a bit rich.

I think you are right here, the offer is fair. Wright is a bit negative, but not much. I doubt they would get a better pick, perhaps just a better expiring contract.

I am not sure what role Dennis would have with all the guards we already have.

Exactly the role Burke had in the playoffs. Luka-Schroeder-THJ-DFS (or Kleber) - KP is a good starting five. Brunson-Curry-MLE-Kleber-Powell is a good bench.

I was thinking the same thing, but had it this way for defense.  Schroeder-THJ-Luka-MLE-KP.  Then the bench is Brunson-Curry-DFS-Kleber-Powell. 

After watching round 2 of Den vs LAC, I'm more inclined to go w/Milllsap on a 1yr MLE over Grant.  I also like Crowder for 7.8mil of the MLE and the rest to who we pick BPA at # 31.  But not apposed to trading down in the 2nd.  I wounded if Philly would give us 34 and 36 for 31?  If so, I like Paul Reed and Devon Dotson.

[omahen]

The Nuggets performance against the Clippers shows us that we might not be as close as we think we are.  We are exactly the 7th best team. You are throwing around assets for 2021 UFAs like Schroeder or Holiday, as if they´d make us contenders next season.  We´ll need to nail the draft this season and FA in 2020/2021 to set ourselves up for multiple actual runs in the future. Our time is not 2020/2021. It´s 2021+.

And if you screw the draft, which is very likely? Than that pick is worthless, you still have Wright on your team, no max cap space in 2021 and you basically didn't improve. If you can get a player like Schroeder for Wright and Jackson, you do it. He makes us better. In 2021 we can resign him and Hardaway, dump both and sign Giannis, dump both and sign two other free agents or whatever other combination you prefer. This way is much more certain we will gradually become a contender than "all bets on draft" strategy you propose. Unless of course, Mavs are absolutely sure they have a draft winner.