Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[windjc]

Well he has a team option so he can erase Hartenstein for free this summer. It truly was a brilliant contract and move, as not only did they solve their biggest weakness down low they also won a ring out of it.  

The real issue is that everyone is about to get paid so they can't afford everyone. Hartenstein being able to be erased almost buys them another year with their entire core with no issues, except they lose probably their 6th most important piece for free.

They were lucky to win via a freak injury in the finals. And they are going to lose a lot more than stone hands this summer as they lock themselves into 3 player max hell.

[SleepingHero]

They were lucky to win via a freak injury in the finals. And they are going to lose a lot more than stone hands this summer as they lock themselves into 3 player max hell.

All of that context might be correct, but it doesn't take away that the team option addition and targeting of Hartenstein was great GM work.

Chet's max extension may be the worst choice of the 3, but you can't really fault Presti for that one.

[windjc]

All of that context might be correct, but it doesn't take away that the team option addition and targeting of Hartenstein was great GM work.

Chet's max extension may be the worst choice of the 3, but you can't really fault Presti for that one.

It’s arguably better to have two max players that are worth it and retain flexibility with the rest of the roster than pay three players the max no matter how good they are. 2 of the 3 in OKC are not worth it.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Jaylin Williams+ Nikola Topic+12+17+37  for Gafford+30.

You might be a hair light on the Dallas side of this equation.

[DanSchwartzgan]

On the other chat thing they are talking about PJ to OKC for Cason Wallace.  I suspect Wiggins would balance out the salaries.  There is some thought 17 would be included, but I’m skeptical.  Wallace starting at PG with Wiggins as a bench defender feels more than fair already, but OKC does have to figure out roster slots.

Sign me up for Wallace over any of the guards at #9.  He impacts winning and is a defensive monster at the point of attack.  Extending him this summer would be an interesting exercise.  I like him with Flagg, Christie and Lively as the young core and you get to add someone playing other position at #9.  I’ve been high on the possibility of OKC needing to move on from Wallace before he gets paid in 27/28, but hadn’t thought of PJ as the outgoing.  I really like the idea.

[mvossman]

On the other chat thing they are talking about PJ to OKC for Cason Wallace.  I suspect Wiggins would balance out the salaries.  There is some thought 17 would be included, but I’m skeptical.  Wallace starting at PG with Wiggins as a bench defender feels more than fair already, but OKC does have to figure out roster slots.

Sign me up for Wallace over any of the guards at #9.  He impacts winning and is a defensive monster at the point of attack.  Extending him this summer would be an interesting exercise.  I like him with Flagg, Christie and Lively as the young core and you get to add someone playing other position at #9.  I’ve been high on the possibility of OKC needing to move on from Wallace before he gets paid in 27/28, but hadn’t thought of PJ as the outgoing.  I really like the idea.

I like Wallace a lot and would be on board trading him for PJ, but I think he is more of a combo guard than a point guard.  Not sure they still wouldn't be looking for a long term PG, but regardless I think they should take BPA at 9 regardless of position.

[cow]

I like Wallace a lot and would be on board trading him for PJ, but I think he is more of a combo guard than a point guard.  Not sure they still wouldn't be looking for a long term PG, but regardless I think they should take BPA at 9 regardless of position.

This echoes my thoughts exactly.

[F Gump]

In looking closely at OKC salaries, it looks like they are at a real crossroads, and it's hard to know which path they will choose. One option is to get rid of a max salary, which eases the strain a lot, either Chet or JWill. The other option is to keep their big 3 intact, and whittle in other areas. I'd guess they will keep the big 3, but who knows.

If they do the path that keeps their big 3, then can they get below A2? I think so, and it may be a bit easier than we tend to think.
1  Decline K Williams TO. This one seems really easy. Saves about 7M.
2 "Sell" pick 17 (include in a trade, or swap for future draft capital). With the change in rules, the ability to swap for future pick is less likely anymore. Saves about 5M.
3 Decline Hartenstein TO and just let him walk. Replace him with Sorber, their "redshirt" C from the 2025 draft. Maybe at the end of the day they also pick up a cheap young min salary 3rd string or 2-way project C. This would be a MAJOR move for them, because he's a significant piece of their core and is generally productive. Saves about 28M.

At that point, assuming they keep Dort, and if they leave slot 15 open for much of the year for developmental purposes, they are about 1M below A2, which I think they would find satisfactory.

Other options for Hartenstein would be a trade in theory, but no one will want his 28M salary. Or OKC could offer him a decline-and-sign deal where the 28M goes away, but he's retained at a much smaller number (16-17M, maybe?). However, if they did that, they would have to find a path to move off of 16-17M somewhere else, and I'm not sure they can really get there. 

Another place they could try to gain some savings might be with Dort, whose TO is for 18M+. Perhaps they work a decline-and-sign there as well, but there's not a lot of savings if you assume that in something like that Dort would get multiple years starting at least at 16-17M. 

I like the PJ for Wallace mentioned above, and think the players would be a great fit for their new teams. At its core, I would want to make it PJ for Wallace +17 and nothing else. But that 20 for 7 salary swap is a non-starter for OKC, and OKC would probably want to send out way more than PJ's 20M in salary, in order to make the deal accomplish what OKC would be looking to do. The players with the right-sized salaries are probably Joe, Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams. Maybe OKC finds another team to take one or more of those (making it a 3-way or 4-way deal), or maybe they just get sent to DAL. 

If I was an OKC fan, I might not like this summer at all.

[dirkfansince1998]

Imo the most likely scenario...

https://x.com/JWeinbachNBA/status/2061155503137264069

The Thunder are likely to decline the team options of Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5M) and Lu Dort ($18.2M) to cut costs this offseason. Although, re-signing each player on a team-friendly deal in free agency would still be a viable option as OKC navigates the salary cap.

Try to resign Hartenstein on a cheaper longterm deal. Dort and Kenrich Williams leave. Try to dump Joe and Wiggins (maybe Topic) in a trade (on paper at least Joe and Topic could actually net OKC future picks in return). Make some kind of draft related trade and turn #12 and #17 into a single first round pick (move up or ask for future picks in return). Fill out the roster with minimum deals. Maybe another rookie (2nd round/undrafted).

But who knows. The rumors are all over the place. Especially the Giannis-OKC stuff. Presti isn't known for all in moves like this but I guess at some point he will have to use his treasure chest.

[Chicagojk]

Imo the most likely scenario...

https://x.com/JWeinbachNBA/status/2061155503137264069



Try to resign Hartenstein on a cheaper longterm deal. Dort and Kenrich Williams leave. Try to dump Joe and Wiggins (maybe Topic) in a trade (on paper at least Joe and Topic could actually net OKC future picks in return). Make some kind of draft related trade and turn #12 and #17 into a single first round pick (move up or ask for future picks in return). Fill out the roster with minimum deals. Maybe another rookie (2nd round/undrafted).

But who knows. The rumors are all over the place. Especially the Giannis-OKC stuff. Presti isn't known for all in moves like this but I guess at some point he will have to use his treasure chest.

OKC will be fine and will be a force for years to come.   They will have competition though.  This year they met a very similar team.  OKC had some injury issues for most of the season and the playoffs.   Game 7 just didn't go their way.  I really liked most of their comments that I read after the season too.

They have the best GM in the business who has an abundance of picks and assets.   In the last few years he has drafted a second rounder in AJ Mitchell, traded for Jared McCain, traded for Caruso, singed Hartenstein.  I think he will figure things out.   There will be some hard decisions, but they will be right back in the mix for the foreseeable future.

I do think Cason Wallace is someone to watch.  Not for a trade, but he deserves and wants a bigger role.   I think it will work out, but that will be another big salary soon.   BTW, I really hope Lively can stay healthy.  That draft trade doesn't look great now.  When Lively plays, it is fine.  We just haven't seen him much over the past two years.   Ugh!

[Smitty]

OKC will be fine

But isn't it Championship or bust for them? Only making it to the Conference Finals after being labeled the "next dynasty" last offseason surely doesn't cut it for Presti, the already dubbed 'Greatest GM of All Time' by some. Being "fine" can't be the bar, can it?

[Chicagojk]

But isn't it Championship or bust for them? Only making it to the Conference Finals after being labeled the "next dynasty" last offseason surely doesn't cut it for Presti, the already dubbed 'Greatest GM of All Time' by some. Being "fine" can't be the bar, can it?

I think the Knicks have a chance to win the finals, but the two best teams in the league is OKC and SA.   One had to lose in game 7.   OKC also had some pretty serious injuries they dealt with.

They won't make the finals every year, but I think we are looking too in the moment right now.   In 8 years from now, we may look back and they could have 4 finals appearances with 3 championships.  If so, that is one of the better runs almost any other team has had.   There is still a lot of work to do, but I would say three championships is considered a great run.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I do think Cason Wallace is someone to watch.  Not for a trade, but he deserves and wants a bigger role.   I think it will work out, but that will be another big salary soon.   

Much of the analysis on OKC focuses on what they can do to get through the summer.  Wallace happens to be a topic of conversation because he’s extension eligible.  But, he’s not the only mouth that needs to be fed.  They have so many PG/SG types coming up for deals in the next two years and they can’t keep all of them.  

FG just outlined what needs to be done just to survive the summer.  Part of it includes potentially walking away from IH and K. Williams.  That leaves Holgren, Sorber and Jaylin as the only 4/5’s on the roster besides what you might draft at 12.  This is part of why PJ might make sense there.  Holgren, Jaylin and two rookies isn’t nearly enough up front for a team with Championship aspirations.

But, what happens when you pay Wallace $18-$20mm (Dyson got $25mm).  Next summer Mitchell, McCain, Topic and Wiggins are extension eligible among guards plus Jaylin Williams (not to mention Caruso who was integral to what they did during the playoffs).  Teams don’t plan one year at a time and OKC has to convert some of their riches at guard into taller and cost controlled players.

[Smitty]

On the other chat thing they are talking about PJ to OKC for Cason Wallace.  I suspect Wiggins would balance out the salaries. 

PJW for Wallace+Wiggins adds payroll (+$3.2M) for the Thunder. That feels like the opposite of what they'll want to do this offseason, no?

I know there would be more than just that move for them (mandatory to be a legal trade), but I still don't see the angle there... unless I'm missing something?

[DanSchwartzgan]

PJW for Wallace+Wiggins adds payroll (+$3.2M) for the Thunder. That feels like the opposite of what they'll want to do this offseason, no?

I know there would be more than just that move for them (mandatory to be a legal trade), but I still don't see the angle there... unless I'm missing something?

That was just a trade-match suggestion.  If 17 were added, it helps, but then you have to replace some of these guys in a 2/1 or 3/1 with minimum contracts.  The thing about PJ is he can play the three when JWill misses time.  He can also help as the small-ball 5 when they have injuries there (and they are likely to get thinner there as FG has outlined).  

There are other ways to skin the cat, but Dallas is light on guards and OKC is light up front.  They are trying to win championships today and we are trying to rebuild a roster.  It feels like a good fit.  

I could see putting 9 into the deal and taking on 12 & 17, which helps financially ($7mm vs $10.6 for 12 and 17 combined).  I could also see putting the Laker’s 2029 in a deal (instead of 9) if we got 12/17 and Wallace.  You are right that we won’t likely solve all of OKC’s issues in one deal (though we do have a nice TPE that could help).  But, we probably can’t make it worse in any deal we might do.

[OldMavsFan]

I would think that they might try to erase the Thunder option of taking the Mavs pick in 28, could be part of a trade with the Thunder.  I don't consider WAG on what will happen as rumors, I really like it that the new Mavs front office is being tight tight lipped and not showing their hands on who they are meeting to be the new coach and only saying they are going to build around Cooper and are not making moves to win it all now.  
IMHO, Lively health is the biggest issue going forward, it feels a bit like the Tarpley years.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I would think that they might try to erase the Thunder option of taking the Mavs pick in 28, could be part of a trade with the Thunder.  I don't consider WAG on what will happen as rumors, I really like it that the new Mavs front office is being tight tight lipped and not showing their hands on who they are meeting to be the new coach and only saying they are going to build around Cooper and are not making moves to win it all now.  
IMHO, Lively health is the biggest issue going forward, it feels a bit like the Tarpley years.

If in the course of constructing some trade you had the choice of getting full control of your own 2028 pick at the cost of the Laker 2029, would you?

[windjc]

OKC will not be a dynasty if they max their big three. They’ll be toast.

[Knutsen]

I‘m pretty sure Presti will find a way to trade off some players for assets - and not having to add assets to get rid of them.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they decline Dort and Hartenstein - or trade one of them to a team with cap room for future assets - and draft their long term cheap successors with 12 and 17.

I mean that’s who Presti is, right?

[Chicagojk]

I‘m pretty sure Presti will find a way to trade off some players for assets - and not having to add assets to get rid of them.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they decline Dort and Hartenstein - or trade one of them to a team with cap room for future assets - and draft their long term cheap successors with 12 and 17.

I mean that’s who Presti is, right?

Yeah,  I think Dort is gone.  He is redundant.   I think they are going to go seperate ways.   Can they find a team to take him on and get something back?  If not, I see them not picking up his contract.

Hartenstein is more difficult.  I think ideally they could resign him for a lower ammount.  He is pretty vital to that team, but they have options with current players and draft assets to get more bigs.    Morez at 12 and Quintance at 17 could plug a lot of holes.   Still though, Hartenstein has a pretty unique skll  I am guess he is going to be back.

I think they move off of Joe, Williams and Wiggins.  I think all would have small value to teams where you don't need to pay to get off them.  I think Topic may be moved.   OKC is such a family that Presti may feel like it is bad mojo to move him now, but it certainly feels like the minutes are not there for him.   I wonder what the market would be for Jaylin Williams?  I think he is awesome and has a good contract.  If Hartelstein stays and Sorber plus a big draft is added, that could be a sneaky move too.