Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[DanSchwartzgan]

what about this?  saw this on Reddit.

Game Theory podcast recently floated the idea of a Kyrie for Kuminga, Rissacher, #23 pick

I listened to their Minnesota preview yesterday.  They referred to Kyrie as the dream fit, but expensive.  In terms of an improvement plan, they, like everyone else, would propose moving on from Randall as the best path forward.  But, they said they can’t find any place where he fits.  They’d be happy if they could just get Minnesota a couple of rotation players for him, but struggled to find that spot.  Sorry, but there is no way you do a Minnesota deal for Kyrie where Randall is in it. 

Their other thought was to move on from Gobert.  They think he has tremendous value.  They thought Charlotte might offer 14, 18 and the expiring contracts of Green and Williams and thought it might take one more pick.  They thought an Atlanta deal might include #8, Risacher and Kuminga.

I think you could start to put together the basics of a three-team trade with either of those scenarios.  The prize in either deal would be either #8 from Atlanta or the Dallas 2027 and maybe one of the 2026 picks from Charlotte (giving up both and a future pick seemed unrealistic to me).  The Atlanta deal would be pretty straight-forward…Gobert to Atl, Kyrie to Minnesota and the Atlanta stuff to Dallas.  In a Charlotte deal, Green can go to Minnesota and DiVincenzo can sit out the season on the Dallas bench for a year.  I don’t love the idea of Grant Williams coming back here, but I do love the idea of 14 or 18 plus getting control of our 2027 pick again. Minnesota would have to send out a smaller salary like Shannon to take back both Kyrie and Green.

[Chicagojk]

I listened to their Minnesota preview yesterday.  They referred to Kyrie as the dream fit, but expensive.  In terms of an improvement plan, they, like everyone else, would propose moving on from Randall as the best path forward.  But, they said they can’t find any place where he fits.  They’d be happy if they could just get Minnesota a couple of rotation players for him, but struggled to find that spot.  Sorry, but there is no way you do a Minnesota deal for Kyrie where Randall is in it. 

Their other thought was to move on from Gobert.  They think he has tremendous value.  They thought Charlotte might offer 14, 18 and the expiring contracts of Green and Williams and thought it might take one more pick.  They thought an Atlanta deal might include #8, Risacher and Kuminga.

I think you could start to put together the basics of a three-team trade with either of those scenarios.  The prize in either deal would be either #8 from Atlanta or the Dallas 2027 and maybe one of the 2026 picks from Charlotte (giving up both and a future pick seemed unrealistic to me).  The Atlanta deal would be pretty straight-forward…Gobert to Atl, Kyrie to Minnesota and the Atlanta stuff to Dallas.  In a Charlotte deal, Green can go to Minnesota and DiVincenzo can sit out the season on the Dallas bench for a year.  I don’t love the idea of Grant Williams coming back here, but I do love the idea of 14 or 18 plus getting control of our 2027 pick again. Minnesota would have to send out a smaller salary like Shannon to take back both Kyrie and Green.

I was checking out the ATL reddit page and I guess Vecenie gave a three team trade that they were up in arms about.  I agree because he had the #8 pick going to Minny.

The deal was Kuminga and Randle to WAshington.   ATL gets Gobert.   Minny got AD, Rischaher and Gueye.  The 8th pick added to this seems to make it way off balance to me.    AD in Minny is interesting though.   I am expecting something pretty shocking form Minn this offseason.    I think they will be very aggressive.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Haven't we been hearing these doom-and-gloom comments over Kyrie's next contract for TWO times already, and each time it turned out to be total nonsense? In fact, the general consensus each time (after lots of alarming predictions of how Kyrie's deal was about to wreck the Mavs payroll, or force him out of town) was that Kyrie left lots of money on the table. 

If Kyrie is in a place where he wants to be, I don't think future contracts will be a crisis at all.

Doom and gloom feels a bit strong for what I’m bringing up.  For the record, I predicted the discounts Kyrie took both times to numbers that were very close to what he got.  Also, $100mm is basically the $40mm he’d be opting out of plus two more years at $30mm each.  Given how you see Kyrie, I suspect you think that would continue to be a discount.

The question for the Mav’s is whether they want to be the team that pays that for his age 37 and 38 seasons.  I don’t and I think this summer or the TDL is the time to make a move and avoid having to make that decision.  He hasn’t exactly been the picture of health for several years now.  I bet someone is going to get a fantastic year from him this year and will then be in a difficult position next summer.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The Nuggets have never been big spenders, which is why the belief around the league is that Cameron Johnson (on an expiring $23 million deal) or Christian Braun (on a five-year, $125 million extension signed in the fall) is likely to be moved to create enough room to give Watson something in the per-year range of those players. One point of potential concern is Watson's recurring hamstring injuries, which cost him a large chunk of the second half. Unfortunately, the injury came right after the best stretch of his career in January and early February.

[Chicagojk]

The Nuggets have never been big spenders, which is why the belief around the league is that Cameron Johnson (on an expiring $23 million deal) or Christian Braun (on a five-year, $125 million extension signed in the fall) is likely to be moved to create enough room to give Watson something in the per-year range of those players. One point of potential concern is Watson's recurring hamstring injuries, which cost him a large chunk of the second half. Unfortunately, the injury came right after the best stretch of his career in January and early February.

Yeah, they have a very difficult offseason.   I saw a report of the draft assets for every team.   The Nuggets are last in a tier of their own.    They have a good team, but one with very little young players.   Injuries have also been an issue.    The moves they made last year were applauded by most (including me) but it didn't work and probably hurt their flexibility.   They really need that pick 26 and hit on it, but it is probably one of their few assets they have.    

With Jokic they are always a contender, but they are at a very important step.   Not sure how they can really keep up with OKC and SA.

[mvossman]

Your thinking that some have a never-trade-Kyrie sentiment is way off. You want to label it that way, because it's an easy target to claim that others aren't open-minded, but it's not what you claim it is at all.  

The pushback against trading Kyrie is NOT about Kyrie being a fan favorite per se (although he is) nor about a desire to never trade him necessarily, but rather against the idea that the Mavs MUST find a Kyrie trade, and accept "the best offer anyone makes" (whatever that may be), and that Kyrie has only minor value to the Mavs themselves, and that it's kinda now or never. 

In your mind, you assume a value that will go down-down-down. Some of us reject that, with very good reason. 

The reason why I wanted Presti so much is that he clearly understood the fallacy in that now-or-never mentality. The smart GM will wait until the price is right, and when you have a valued asset, the market will come to you. Teams NEED talent, and sometimes need it desperately. Being the one desperate to make a deal (gotta do it now), that's the formula for making a horrible deal (see Harrison, N.). I would hope Masai gets it.

Who is desperate to make a trade now?  Who said we must find a trade and accept the best offer anybody makes?

I have made the argument on this board that his value will probably be higher at the TDL than it is right now.  That teams will want to see him on the court.  But his value eventually will go down.  He is in his mid 30s and has a long history of availability issues.  You seem to think guys never age.

This is just like the AD argument.  You price guys wildly over the market and then accuse anybody willing to consider a market value trade to be ("gotta do it now").  That is not what is happening.  It's simply a discussion about what his current value actually is.

My original post was not directed at you (although your response seems to suggest you think it was).  It's not just about folks potentially overvaluing what Kyrie might be worth in a trade.  There has been a lot of talk about making the playoffs next season and how certain draft picks will fit with Kyrie.  It makes total sense for fans who really like Kyrie to make that part of their calculus as opposed to single mindedly building a future contender.  I am not in any way begrudging that mindset.

[mvossman]

I listened to their Minnesota preview yesterday.  They referred to Kyrie as the dream fit, but expensive.  In terms of an improvement plan, they, like everyone else, would propose moving on from Randall as the best path forward.  But, they said they can’t find any place where he fits.  They’d be happy if they could just get Minnesota a couple of rotation players for him, but struggled to find that spot.  Sorry, but there is no way you do a Minnesota deal for Kyrie where Randall is in it. 

Their other thought was to move on from Gobert.  They think he has tremendous value.  They thought Charlotte might offer 14, 18 and the expiring contracts of Green and Williams and thought it might take one more pick.  They thought an Atlanta deal might include #8, Risacher and Kuminga.

I think you could start to put together the basics of a three-team trade with either of those scenarios.  The prize in either deal would be either #8 from Atlanta or the Dallas 2027 and maybe one of the 2026 picks from Charlotte (giving up both and a future pick seemed unrealistic to me).  The Atlanta deal would be pretty straight-forward…Gobert to Atl, Kyrie to Minnesota and the Atlanta stuff to Dallas.  In a Charlotte deal, Green can go to Minnesota and DiVincenzo can sit out the season on the Dallas bench for a year.  I don’t love the idea of Grant Williams coming back here, but I do love the idea of 14 or 18 plus getting control of our 2027 pick again. Minnesota would have to send out a smaller salary like Shannon to take back both Kyrie and Green.

I am struggling to believe Gobert has that much value.  If he does, sign me up!

[omahen]

Yeah, they have a very difficult offseason.   I saw a report of the draft assets for every team.   The Nuggets are last in a tier of their own.    They have a good team, but one with very little young players.   Injuries have also been an issue.    The moves they made last year were applauded by most (including me) but it didn't work and probably hurt their flexibility.   They really need that pick 26 and hit on it, but it is probably one of their few assets they have.    

With Jokic they are always a contender, but they are at a very important step.   Not sure how they can really keep up with OKC and SA.

Yes, Denver is a very interesting case. In the big picture I think, their only chance to contend is to go above the second apron (or really strike gold in 2026 draft). They are just a little below the second apron without Watson. THJ and Bruce Brown are also free agents and I am not sure if they would accept a vet min again. THJ had a very decent season. Spencer Jones also had a very decent season and some team might offer him more than vet min. 

Denver is paying a price of a champion. They had to let some guys walk and overpay others. First they had to let Brown walk as he got roughly 25 mil offer from Indy, which was a huge overpay. Similar story next season with KCP and Orlando offer. They made a cost cutting move by trading MPJ for Cam.

Assuming there actually will be a team offering a salary in 25 mil per range for Watson, they would need to shed a lot of salary to stay below the second apron and sign him. Valanciunas is not guaranteed, so they could save some 8 mil there. Nnaji is dead weight and they would certainly need to pay to get rid of him. Even if they succeed, it would still not be enough. Cam is ok, but had sort of a meh season. Not really awesome defender. He is expiring though. Braun had a bad season and he looks way overpaid for what he delivered. Is that the real him or is there hope for a version from previous season to return? Gordon had two injury riddled season, but is awesome when healthy. 

Would there be a team (BKN, Chicago and Lakers have cap space) willing to take either Cam or Braun into cap space without expecting an asset from Denver? Chicago will be rebuilding, so I assume they would like to sell their cap space. BKN doesn't control their picks, but does Cam really move a needle for them, since they just traded him away? I am not sure Lakers would be interested in either one. If the teams would expect draft compensation for either, than I think Denver would be better off letting Watson walk. Unless they do something bigger with either Gordon or Murray.

[mvossman]

I listened to their Minnesota preview yesterday.  They referred to Kyrie as the dream fit, but expensive.  In terms of an improvement plan, they, like everyone else, would propose moving on from Randall as the best path forward.  But, they said they can’t find any place where he fits.  They’d be happy if they could just get Minnesota a couple of rotation players for him, but struggled to find that spot.  Sorry, but there is no way you do a Minnesota deal for Kyrie where Randall is in it. 

Their other thought was to move on from Gobert.  They think he has tremendous value.  They thought Charlotte might offer 14, 18 and the expiring contracts of Green and Williams and thought it might take one more pick.  They thought an Atlanta deal might include #8, Risacher and Kuminga.

I think you could start to put together the basics of a three-team trade with either of those scenarios.  The prize in either deal would be either #8 from Atlanta or the Dallas 2027 and maybe one of the 2026 picks from Charlotte (giving up both and a future pick seemed unrealistic to me).  The Atlanta deal would be pretty straight-forward…Gobert to Atl, Kyrie to Minnesota and the Atlanta stuff to Dallas.  In a Charlotte deal, Green can go to Minnesota and DiVincenzo can sit out the season on the Dallas bench for a year.  I don’t love the idea of Grant Williams coming back here, but I do love the idea of 14 or 18 plus getting control of our 2027 pick again. Minnesota would have to send out a smaller salary like Shannon to take back both Kyrie and Green.

Kind of crazy if they did the 8 + Risacher deal.  They could draft Burries and one of the point guards and throw out a lineup of Lively/Flagg/Risacher/Burries/Flemings where Lively would be the old man at 22.

[cow]

The Nuggets have never been big spenders, which is why the belief around the league is that Cameron Johnson (on an expiring $23 million deal) or Christian Braun (on a five-year, $125 million extension signed in the fall) is likely to be moved to create enough room to give Watson something in the per-year range of those players. One point of potential concern is Watson's recurring hamstring injuries, which cost him a large chunk of the second half. Unfortunately, the injury came right after the best stretch of his career in January and early February.

I'd think getting off of Braun would be difficult who regressed this year which makes that newly signed contract one of the more undesirable league wide.  I do think he's an interesting reclamation project, but much money/years ahead and not having the benefit of Joker's gravity would make me ask for a ton in return.

[Mavs2021]

I'd think getting off of Braun would be difficult who regressed this year which makes that newly signed contract one of the more undesirable league wide.  I do think he's an interesting reclamation project, but much money/years ahead and not having the benefit of Joker's gravity would make me ask for a ton in return.

Yeah usually I´d prefer the young player buy low asset, but I have never seen it with Braun. I´d prefer Cam Johnson expiring with #26, but does Denver really want a package like Gafford/Klay?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Bobby Marks: "Harden's in a unique situation. He's got a $42 million player option and there's only $13 million of that guaranteed. So if Harden did opt in, Cleveland could certainly waive him and save a ton of money here. I would expect him to opt out of that contract and both sides to negotiate a a little bit of a longer contract, whether it be two years. And why opting out makes the most sense is that that would put Cleveland potentially under the second apron. If you drop 42 to let's say 30, that puts them under the second apron and gives them some flexibility moving forward with with Harden there."

[Chicagojk]

Yeah usually I´d prefer the young player buy low asset, but I have never seen it with Braun. I´d prefer Cam Johnson expiring with #26, but does Denver really want a package like Gafford/Klay?

I thought Braun had a real nice season before this year but he did not play well this year.  That contract is a killer now a days.  Those 25-30 million for guys who may not be plus killers can just hamstrung a team in todays cap.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Still, Gilgeous-Alexander referenced the reality that Presti isn’t one to stand still. He analyzes. He innovates. He corrects. If he learned anything from the legendary Gregg Popovich and famed Spurs executive R.C. Buford during his early years with the Spurs that led to his Thunder rise, it was that. League sources have long maintained that Oklahoma City would not take part in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes that will dominate the summertime conversation, but this sort of stunning finish is enough to re-spark that conversation. Nothing should be off the table when the end goal wasn’t reached.



“The whole league now is trying to beat (OKC). That means they’re building their teams that way,” Kerr said. “San Antonio, they got young talent, they got Wemby, and they have really good and strong defensive guards. It was like, ‘Oh, s—.’ All of a sudden, they got a rival. I don’t know who the next young team who’s going to be doing that is, but you better believe when all these teams are building their rosters, they got the Thunder in mind, because they know for the next six, eight years, the Thunder are going to be at the top of the heap.” Now the Thunder will move with the Spurs — who boast a core trio aged 22 and younger — in mind. OKC’s summer comes with decisions. Holmgren and Jalen Williams’ extensions activate next season. With the second apron looming — the Thunder currently projected to be about $39 million above that mark next season — they hold team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and Lu Dort ($18.2 million).

[windjc]

Actually when most folks propose this trade they include Mavs giving up 30.  I would prefer to stay at 9 as well.

Still, Gilgeous-Alexander referenced the reality that Presti isn’t one to stand still. He analyzes. He innovates. He corrects. If he learned anything from the legendary Gregg Popovich and famed Spurs executive R.C. Buford during his early years with the Spurs that led to his Thunder rise, it was that. League sources have long maintained that Oklahoma City would not take part in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes that will dominate the summertime conversation, but this sort of stunning finish is enough to re-spark that conversation. Nothing should be off the table when the end goal wasn’t reached.



“The whole league now is trying to beat (OKC). That means they’re building their teams that way,” Kerr said. “San Antonio, they got young talent, they got Wemby, and they have really good and strong defensive guards. It was like, ‘Oh, s—.’ All of a sudden, they got a rival. I don’t know who the next young team who’s going to be doing that is, but you better believe when all these teams are building their rosters, they got the Thunder in mind, because they know for the next six, eight years, the Thunder are going to be at the top of the heap.” Now the Thunder will move with the Spurs — who boast a core trio aged 22 and younger — in mind. OKC’s summer comes with decisions. Holmgren and Jalen Williams’ extensions activate next season. With the second apron looming — the Thunder currently projected to be about $39 million above that mark next season — they hold team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and Lu Dort ($18.2 million).

Rule#1. Do not overpay for OKC jettisons. These players will not perform as well in other systems until those systems establish a culture of winning.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I listened to their Minnesota preview yesterday.  They referred to Kyrie as the dream fit, but expensive.  

Sorry, but there is no way you do a Minnesota deal for Kyrie where Randall is in it. 

I watched some more Minnesota content.  One video talked about S&T Ayo being part of the outgoing compensation for Kyrie (they mentioned Kyrie might make him redundant).  I’d probably agree with their assessment had DiVincenzo not gotten hurt.  But, I like the idea of Ayo here.  Combine him with Beringer and some draft capital other than the #28 pick and I’m starting to get interested.   You have to wait until July to do this, so you know your pick at that point and #28 from Minnesota isn’t part of the deal (which is fine by me as I’d rather have 2033 or even a swap of their 2028 pick).  

They thought Randall had neutral to slightly negative value and tried to put him in deals and thought Brooklyn might take him for some returning value.  I still don’t want him, but if I was getting Ayo, Beringer and 2033, I could hold my nose for two years.  There is a version where Randall, DiVincenzo (out most of next season, but a good expiring player to have for 2027), Beringer and Ayo at $20mm for Kyrie, PJ and Caleb Martin would work.  People can argue over whether any additional draft compensation that would be necessary.

Personally, I’d rather put Naz in place of Randall and put Gafford in place of PJ.  You don’t get to dump Martin in this version, but Ayo ($18mm), Baringer, Naz and DiVencenzo for Irving and Gafford works in July.

Finally, they also explored Gobert deals where he went to Charlotte.  They were trying to preserve sending out a pick and felt Charlotte could send draft assets to Dallas.  The trouble with that in my mind is it is hard to Minnesota to give up Gobert and Beringer.  You can make the money work, but is a S&T Ayo and our 2027 pick back enough for Kyrie?  I came up with a version where Charlotte got Gobert and AJ Johnson,  Minnesota got Kyrie, Josh Green and Kalkbrenner and Dallas got expiring Miles Bridges (with Kidd gone, does that open up a wife-beater slot for us), Ayo at $18mm, DiVincenzo and our 2027 pick.  Again, people can argue as to whether the various sides need to add draft capital.  I’m just trying to find frameworks that don’t require us to take on Randall (or compensate us wildly for doing so).

[SleepingHero]

Been thinking about OKC and their cap situation for a little bit now. Now that the honeymoon period is over with their contracts, they are going to have to start caring about apron levels now with their extensions.

Chet's kicks in this summer, and between him, Shai, and J-Dub, notoriously penurious OKC will be shelling out 124 mil just for the three of them next year and that's before we add on SGA's supermax extension in 27-28 for 60+mill a year.

Even if they decline Hartenstein+Dort options and let them walk for free, they still need to extend Cason Wallace and create cap space for their 3 draft picks this summer (which should be around $12mil in total give or take.)

Now that the table's set, I wonder if OKC would be interested in one of the myriad of cost controlled role players the Mavs have, on top of some of their draft capital?

Jaylin Williams+ Nikola Topic+12+17+37 for Gafford+30. OKC now can let Hartenstein walk for free. They clear about 10 million off the books in terms of just draft salary. We could also replace Gafford with PJ in this scenario and the money still works.

Mavs get a chance at Topic who is a big guard that just doesn't have a role, on top of 2 more draft picks in the mid first round. They also get a backup center that can stretch the floor and is cost controlled as well.

Maybe 12+17 may be too rich for Gafford alone, but OKC is definitely in trouble and something has to change. A smaller move like this for both teams where they are exchanging some high quality role players, might make sense.

[windjc]

Been thinking about OKC and their cap situation for a little bit now. Now that the honeymoon period is over with their contracts, they are going to have to start caring about apron levels now with their extensions.

Chet's kicks in this summer, and between him, Shai, and J-Dub, notoriously penurious OKC will be shelling out 124 mil just for the three of them next year and that's before we add on SGA's supermax extension in 27-28 for 60+mill a year.

Even if they decline Hartenstein+Dort options and let them walk for free, they still need to extend Cason Wallace and create cap space for their 3 draft picks this summer (which should be around $12mil in total give or take.)

Now that the table's set, I wonder if OKC would be interested in one of the myriad of cost controlled role players the Mavs have, on top of some of their draft capital?

Jaylin Williams+ Nikola Topic+12+17+37  for Gafford+30. OKC now can let Hartenstein walk for free. They clear about 10 million off the books in terms of just draft salary. We could also replace Gafford with PJ in this scenario and the money still works.

Mavs get a chance at Topic who is a big guard that just doesn't have a role, on top of 2 more draft picks in the mid first round. They also get a backup center that can stretch the floor and is cost controlled as well.

Maybe 12+17 may be too rich for Gafford alone, but OKC is definitely in trouble and something has to change. A smaller move like this for both teams where they are exchanging some high quality role players, might make sense.

OKC is in cap hell and 2 of their 3 ultra max players aren’t worth it. But so many said they would reign for eternity.

[windjc]

OKC is in cap hell and 2 of their 3 ultra max players aren’t worth it. But so many said they would reign for eternity.

Also the great Presti signed “hands of stone” Hartenstein for 36 million. Brilliant move.

[SleepingHero]

Also the  great Presti signed “hands of stone” Hartenstein for 36 million. Brilliant move.

Well he has a team option so he can erase Hartenstein for free this summer. It truly was a brilliant contract and move, as not only did they solve their biggest weakness down low they also won a ring out of it.  

The real issue is that everyone is about to get paid so they can't afford everyone. Hartenstein being able to be erased almost buys them another year with their entire core with no issues, except they lose probably their 6th most important piece for free.