Summer League Game 1: 7pm CST on ESPN

[mvossman]

Agreed. 

Not that I think it truly matters in the grand scheme of things, but in my opinion PJW is the most likely to come off the bench on opening night (given full health to the roster). I understand where people who assume this will be Thompson's ticket to 6th man gets handed to him are coming from, but I think in that locker room he's treated like a hall-of-fame player, and rightfully so. In all honesty, I think the guy who goes to the bench should be Lively, but I don't expect that. I still might find it more likely than them asking Thompson to come off the bench to start the season though, frankly. 

Now, I wouldn't be shocked if Thompson gets moved into a bench role by the end of the year if things don't go well and they start thinking about leaning towards the Flagg timeline a bit more, but outside of Max Christie I'm not sure who's gonna take his spot that's currently on the roster. I think the team will play some stretches where you could call Flagg the 2, but I highly doubt that will be their default lineup. I'll believe it when I see it.

I think PJW and Thompson will both be in the ideal closing lineup, along with Russell (eventually Kyrie), Flagg and Davis (if healthy - Lively if not). That's my prediction at this time. I could see Max Christie taking a bite out of Thompson's role as the season progresses, however. Depending on matchups.

I think PJ makes the most sense to come off the bench even though he is the better player than Klay.  He is at his best at the 4.  Playing him next to two centers and a forward will greatly reduce his value.  He should play every minute AD is not on the court, and with AD when they go "small" when AD is center (probably finishing lineup).

[KillerLeft]

I think PJ makes the most sense to come off the bench even though he is the better player than Klay.  He is at his best at the 4.  Playing him next to two centers and a forward will greatly reduce his value.  He should play every minute AD is not on the court, and with AD when they go "small" when AD is center (probably finishing lineup).

This is exactly the way I see it, too. To me, this is a no-brainer, provided Kidd can get PJW excited about the role. 

There are basically 7 guys who will hit camp hoping to be starters. It's a good problem, in a way, but might be tough to manage, hierarchy wise. We've seen teams crumble for less. This is part of Kidd's gig, though. I actually trust Kidd to make the egos work. Not sure I trust that he'll choose the right path.

[mvossman]

Interesting point. Consider also that luck is always part of mix for GMs and franchises.  
It was bad injury luck that pretty much shattered any chance for the trade to vindicate itself on the floor last season.  Healthy AD, Kyrie and the roster actually looked pretty good for the very brief time it appeared. 

Good ping pong ball luck came along and trumped bad injury luck by making up the future Dallas franchise player years Nico had so drastically discounted away. Fortune was going to play its part either way.

This point would be stronger if I didn't think Nico incompetence contributed to the injury luck.  He fires the best medical staff in the NBA as a FU to Luka.  He then trades away Luka without any creation coming back in return, forcing Kidd to overuse Kyrie (regardless of whether the actual injury was related to systemic fatigue, he was bound to get injured eventually at that usage).  Then they bring back AD sooner than the Lakers were planning to, and Kidd said they were going to play him 38-40 minutes his first game back (which I believe was the rate he was playing at before he went down).

Personally I think Nico got lucky in both cases.  I don't think this team was in a position to go deep in the playoffs even if healthy.  Not enough creation and too drastic a change to what they do.  Those injuries gave him an excuse/out, the same one you are giving him in your first paragraph.  I wonder if they watch a healthy version of his win now team get bounced in the first round if he is still here?

[mvossman]

This is exactly the way I see it, too. To me, this is a no-brainer, provided Kidd can get PJW excited about the role. 

There are basically 7 guys who will hit camp hoping to be starters. It's a good problem, in a way, but might be tough to manage, hierarchy wise. We've seen teams crumble for less. This is part of Kidd's gig, though. I actually trust Kidd to make the egos work. Not sure I trust that he'll choose the right path.

One "selling" point they can make is that Lively/Gafford/AD missed a combined 102 games last season.  Any one of those guys go down and he is in the starting lineup.  The math/history says he will probably start over half the games anyways.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

That makes sense. I think the team is pretty good shape too, but probably not for this season, right? I'm thinking this a "play cooper a lot and trade some players" season. Is that accurate, you think? Seems like the roster quite imbalanced, and featuring a rookie doesn't usually win games.

On the broadcast, I can't remember if it was the play by play guy or Tim Legler that said Kyrie was sitting courtside and they had talked to him.  The plan was to see where the Mavs are record wise around the trade deadline to see how aggressive they would be with Kyrie.  

If AD misses any time, I think next season turns into a tank season.  If everyone stays healthy, they are probably in it.

Anyway, I tried to imagine what playing with veterans might look like with Flagg in the mix. With D'Angelo Russell as the other guard, and the rest of our front line of AD, Lively and either Klay or PJ. It's really hard to imagine that not being a good team. 

I see spacing being a big problem, especially any lineups featuring Center, AD, PJ, Flagg at the same time.

[Winter]

I see spacing being a big problem, especially any lineups featuring Center, AD, PJ, Flagg at the same time.

So you've said. I don't buy it really. I think the Mavs guards have to perform well to balance it out, but I really don't think we will know how this is going to work until preseason. 

If it's truly a problem, the lineup will need to change. They will have to make the changes accordingly if they aren't winning. I don't think it's complicated.

[mvossman]

I see spacing being a big problem, especially any lineups featuring Center, AD, PJ, Flagg at the same time.

Not just spacing, but perimeter defense will be a concern as well.  An interesting example is Cleaveland who has elite interior defense but were questionable on the perimeter.  They were a good defense but not elite.  I think that is where the Mavs are going to be.

[KillerLeft]

I see the potential problems this roster could face in a similar way to RTG and mvossman.

But, if we're right, it will play out negatively on the court, and the team will make adjustments. I respect Vogel, and the NBA community at large seems like they've turned a corner and started respecting Kidd quite a bit recently, so we have to assume that these same potential negatives have at least crossed their minds.

I take solace in the knowledge that IF we're right, the team has the tools on hand to allow them to change course. AD and Lively would instantly be the best center rotation in the NBA (partly because they can play some together, making it really easy for both players to have a bigger role), and could last for a while, together, with Lively coming out the other side much better as a result of the collaboration. Ditto for AD's influence on Flagg, imo. PJW will be a GREAT fit next to Flagg in lineups with the right synergy. Whether Thompson is a starter or (eventually) a 20-minute bench guy, his help on and off the court is likely going to be key. I'm a little worried about how Kyrie's career ends, but I seem to be in the minority. Marshall and Exum are both useful in a variety of ways. Russell is on a value contract and can be useful as a stopgap, a bench piece or as a trade deadline asset. I haven't completely given up on Martin and Hardy like some.

Even if we're completely right and they need to add an impact guard, they have the assets to do so. I'm ok with waiting to confirm that's the move, and to ensure they're pouncing on the right opportunity, rather than the first one.

I think there's great potential here for Cooper Flagg's rookie contract period to be more successful than any #1 pick has a right to expect. I think he's very lucky to be in this situation.

[mvossman]

I see the potential problems this roster could face in a similar way to RTG and mvossman.

But, if we're right, it will play out negatively on the court, and the team will make adjustments. I respect Vogel, and the NBA community at large seems like they've turned a corner and started respecting Kidd quite a bit recently, so we have to assume that these same potential negatives have at least crossed their minds.

I take solace in the knowledge that IF we're right, the team has the tools on hand to allow them to change course. AD and Lively would instantly be the best center rotation in the NBA (partly because they can play some together, making it really easy for both players to have a bigger role), and could last for a while, together, with Lively coming out the other side much better as a result of the collaboration. Ditto for AD's influence on Flagg, imo. PJW will be a GREAT fit next to Flagg in lineups with the right synergy. Whether Thompson is a starter or (eventually) a 20-minute bench guy, his help on and off the court is likely going to be key. I'm a little worried about how Kyrie's career ends, but I seem to be in the minority. Marshall and Exum are both useful in a variety of ways. Russell is on a value contract and can be useful as a stopgap, a bench piece or as a trade deadline asset.  I haven't completely given up on Martin and Hardy like some.

Even if we're completely right and they need to add an impact guard, they have the assets to do so. I'm ok with waiting to confirm that's the move, and to ensure they're pouncing on the right opportunity, rather than the first one.

I think there's great potential here for Cooper Flagg's rookie contract period to be more successful than any #1 pick has a right to expect. I think he's very lucky to be in this situation.

Going over that roster it just screams for a POA defender that can be another creator in the mix.  If things are going well I could see them pull that trigger at the TDL.  They need to do it in the offseason at the latest.  The clock is ticking.

I agree on the outlook for Flagg's rookie period, but his second contract time frame might be dicey.  With AD, Kyrie and Klay all well past their prime and few assets, its going to be tough to reset after this first window.

[KillerLeft]

I agree on the outlook for Flagg's rookie period, but his second contract time frame might be dicey.  With AD, Kyrie and Klay all well past their prime and few assets, its going to be tough to reset after this first window.

OR, maybe Flagg, Lively, Christie and any other young players added in the interim are given the gift of learning how to win at the NBA level and the team is smartly transitions away from some of those older pieces in waves, refilling the asset cupboard as it goes, but gradually, not by pulling the rug out from under the current team. I think even PJW and Naji Marshall could still be players here (or assets of at least mild value) by then.

[KillerLeft]

Going over that roster it just screams for a POA defender that can be another creator in the mix.

Totally agree. But again, maybe we're wrong. We'll find out over the course of this year, and even at that point I'm not sure we'll quite fully understand what the Mavs have in Flagg.

[ballsrchr]

I don't think he's getting fired at all. I think the entire organization has been quickly remade to suit him...players, head coach, front office, non-basketball operations office workers and now even the assistant coaching staff. They're all new. Ownership is new. I think the vast majority of them believe in him, honestly. I think there was initial mirroring of the fan backlash with much of the organization, but since then, those people have been fired, resigned or moved on in some way. That's why you're starting to hear them do interviews. 

Whatever the storm was, however bad it got for Harrison, I think he has survived it. I think he survived it by taking preemptive steps to secure and consolidate his power, and I almost respect the Machiavellian approach, honestly. Those who think it's a matter of time until he gets himself into hot water again will probably hold their breath until he gets fired, but I've made the decision not to allow that type of negativity to pollute my hobby. I didn't think Cuban or Donnie Nelson were particularly good at the GM thing, and there were many times I wished they'd get run out of town. Looking back now, more objectively, I think they both did some good things that we took for granted to complain about the bad things (and make no mistake - they did some dumb, dumb things). I doubt any of us would agree with 100% of what any GM does with the toy we all wish we could play with, but at the end of the day, this team has been almost completely turned over in the four years Harrison/Kidd have been here, and...they're better than I thought they'd be. Better than they would've been if Nelson/Cuban were still in charge, probably. I've decided that has to be enough for me.

As long as the team is competitive (or taking steps to trend towards competitive) and fun to watch, I'm in.

Unfortunately I think you are more right than wrong.  And I'm ALWAYS in for the Mavs--though there have been some shaky years--but I'll NEVER accept Nico as GM, or even as a person I might want to know.  Not just because of the Luka situation, which is plenty, but for a variety of reasons.

Right now we are riding high simply because of an absolute miracle...not because this was in the Nico Grand Plan.  It was luck, pure and simple.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm ecstatic about Cooper Flagg.  But I think we need to give the kid some time and support to become everything he will become...and that is NOT postions 1 through 5.

[Winter]

I think the talent on this roster is very likely better than 3/4 of all the NBA teams when healthy. How quickly this team plays together will likely determine the won-loss record.

I'd rather have the talent on this team with the configuration issues a lot more than I would if I was faced with a well-balanced team of much less talent.

[KillerLeft]

I think the talent on this roster is very likely better than 3/4 of all the NBA teams when healthy. How quickly this team plays together will likely determine the won-loss record.

I'd rather have the talent on this team with the configuration issues a lot more than I would if I was faced with a well-balanced team of much less talent.

For sure. This is a great way to look at it, especially the emboldened. I think what worries some is that they can't envision a clear way the team can gel, as constructed. But, there might be a way we can't see yet, because of Flagg. We just don't know, and that's simultaneously the worry and the excitement.

[KillerLeft]

Unfortunately I think you are more right than wrong.  And I'm ALWAYS in for the Mavs--though there have been some shaky years--but I'll NEVER accept Nico as GM, or even as a person I might want to know.  Not just because of the Luka situation, which is plenty, but for a variety of reasons.

Right now we are riding high simply because of an absolute miracle...not because this was in the Nico Grand Plan.  It was luck, pure and simple.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm ecstatic about Cooper Flagg.  But I think we need to give the kid some time and support to become everything he will become...and that is NOT postions 1 through 5.

I think it's more complex than that. 

I don't buy the "Lindsey good - Nico bad" narrative, at least not completely. I think there's a lot of talent here, and it's silly to deny Harrison any credit for that. I think they're forming a salary structure that, to Cuban's recent point, is looking pretty sustainable for a reasonably long period of the near future. That's no easy feat right now, as we're seeing. I think it's pretty clear that the type of player the team covets changed when Harrison got the job, and while I don't think he's always gotten things right (see McGee and the attempt at ending my life with Kuzma), we all love PJW and Gafford, and whether some are willing to give him credit for those deals or not, neither would've been Mavericks during the Cuban/Nelson era. I'm confident about that. This team values athletic ability and two-way play like we wish they would've through the entire Dirk era, frankly. The one time they backed into a roster full of two way players, they won the championship. 

Heck, I stand by the O-Max/Hardy draft picks, even. Sometimes players don't figure things out, but those were both good swings, imho. And, he has not shown the slightest hesitation to move on once he's made his mind up that something isn't working. Does anyone miss Porzingis? Josh Green? I know some miss Grimes, but I feel like that's going to play out badly for him, not for the Mavs. I think he should've accepted their offer and settled into the role they wanted for him. We'll see. 

Harrison is going to be wrong as much as or maybe more often than he's right, but I swear we'd be saying that about any GM the Mavs had. If I was an Utah fan (ugh, Utah) I'd LOATHE Danny Ainge, who has wasted years there with almost nothing to show for it. That's just one example. The reality is that the job is so much more difficult than it looks to backseat drivers. 

I'm not trying to defend the guy, I swear. I'm just saying that if the GM is why someone is out on the Mavs, they're very unlikely to ever be happy following the Mavs. If the team is good, it will be fun for us. If they're not, then maybe he'll get fired. Or he won't. Either way, we're so powerless to do anything about it. If the fan backlash the team withstood over the last several months didn't do the trick, no craft we fans possess has any bearing on his future. I want the Mavs to be good, and have little hope for a GM change anytime soon, so I'll choose to hope Harrison performs better in his role than others expect.

[Smitty]

This terrifies me. I can see the logic, which makes me wonder if this is not exactly how they're thinking. Me? I think this weirdly undervalues all three players.

I don’t see it being a big deal in the regular season tbh. I was being generous when I said less than 30 games that all 3 would be available. We’re talking about 25% of the regular season when this is the case. For all of Gafford’s warts, he’s a really really good regular season Center and he’s basically Iron Man compared to the other two.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t see it being a big deal in the regular season tbh. I was being generous when I said less than 30 games that all 3 would be available. We’re talking about 25% of the regular season when this is the case. For all of Gafford’s warts, he’s a really really good regular season Center and he’s basically Iron Man compared to the other two.

It's not the "let Gafford eat" part that concerns me (though that might be part of the problem's cause). I think Gafford will play well, as you suggest. I think this approach limits the development of lively, who, in the "chess, not checkers" sense of things, needs to be inching towards 30 minutes per, so that we can learn whether or not that's who he is before it's time to pay him. 

And, since I believe pretty strongly that AD and Lively are going to be the centers in the playoffs, I wonder if it's wise to think of things so drastically in terms of regular season rotation vs. playoffs rotation. I get that you want to reduce wear and tear, believe me. That point isn't lost on me, but I've always struggled with the idea of changing course in the playoffs. In 2011, the team's best lineups in the playoffs were lineups that had played together all season, and that's part of why they out-executed everyone in almost every 4th quarter. If AD is going to play a ton of center in the playoffs, and I believe he is, then to me it makes sense for the other players to learn what that means and how it works, so I hope that approach is given enough time in the regular season to accomplish that (which I suppose is a subjective amount of time that you and I might see differently). Ditto for Lively. 

To me, the ideal rotation is for Lively/AD to start, then PJ comes off the bench for one of them, the other remaining to play center. Then, the first guy comes back in to spell the one who stayed, etc. Think of PJW to the bigs as JET used to be for the guards. He gets a big, 30 minutes+ role, as do both Lively and AD. It probably leaves some room to slide Flagg into the 4, even, like maybe with Marshall at the 3? You probably need a good 3rd center in that scenario for depth (that's where Kai Jones would've come into play for me, as Gafford's salary is a bit on the overkill side for a role like that, to say the least). Obviously, this is not going to be their approach to start the year, given the Gafford extension, but it's the path I was hoping for this summer.

[ballsrchr]

I think it's more complex than that. 

I don't buy the "Lindsey good - Nico bad" narrative, at least not completely. I think there's a lot of talent here, and it's silly to deny Harrison any credit for that. I think they're forming a salary structure that, to Cuban's recent point, is looking pretty sustainable for a reasonably long period of the near future. That's no easy feat right now, as we're seeing. I think it's pretty clear that the type of player the team covets changed when Harrison got the job, and while I don't think he's always gotten things right (see McGee and the attempt at ending my life with Kuzma), we all love PJW and Gafford, and whether some are willing to give him credit for those deals or not, neither would've been Mavericks during the Cuban/Nelson era. I'm confident about that. This team values athletic ability and two-way play like we wish they would've through the entire Dirk era, frankly. The one time they backed into a roster full of two way players, they won the championship. 

Heck, I stand by the O-Max/Hardy draft picks, even. Sometimes players don't figure things out, but those were both good swings, imho. And, he has not shown the slightest hesitation to move on once he's made his mind up that something isn't working. Does anyone miss Porzingis? Josh Green? I know some miss Grimes, but I feel like that's going to play out badly for him, not for the Mavs. I think he should've accepted their offer and settled into the role they wanted for him. We'll see. 

Harrison is going to be wrong as much as or maybe more often than he's right, but I swear we'd be saying that about any GM the Mavs had. If I was an Utah fan (ugh, Utah) I'd LOATHE Danny Ainge, who has wasted years there with almost nothing to show for it. That's just one example. The reality is that the job is so much more difficult than it looks to backseat drivers. 

I'm not trying to defend the guy, I swear. I'm just saying that if the GM is why someone is out on the Mavs, they're very unlikely to ever be happy following the Mavs. If the team is good, it will be fun for us. If they're not, then maybe he'll get fired. Or he won't. Either way, we're so powerless to do anything about it. If the fan backlash the team withstood over the last several months didn't do the trick, no craft we fans possess has any bearing on his future. I want the Mavs to be good, and have little hope for a GM change anytime soon, so I'll choose to hope Harrison performs better in his role than others expect.

I hate the cool, calm, voice of reason almost as much as I hate those guys on the freeway going the speed limit when I want to go 5 mph over the limit.

That's tongue in cheek, of course.  It's great to have somebody who can detail, explain, and has reasons for their posts.  I'm more of a winger, or as some may say, a wanker--which is...a one arm winger.

Keep up your great posts!  When you get responses--positive or negative--you are doing something right.

[mvossman]

I think it's more complex than that. 

I don't buy the "Lindsey good - Nico bad" narrative, at least not completely. I think there's a lot of talent here, and it's silly to deny Harrison any credit for that. I think they're forming a salary structure that, to Cuban's recent point, is looking pretty sustainable for a reasonably long period of the near future. That's no easy feat right now, as we're seeing. I think it's pretty clear that the type of player the team covets changed when Harrison got the job, and while I don't think he's always gotten things right (see McGee and the attempt at ending my life with Kuzma), we all love PJW and Gafford, and whether some are willing to give him credit for those deals or not, neither would've been Mavericks during the Cuban/Nelson era. I'm confident about that. This team values athletic ability and two-way play like we wish they would've through the entire Dirk era, frankly. The one time they backed into a roster full of two way players, they won the championship. 

Heck, I stand by the O-Max/Hardy draft picks, even. Sometimes players don't figure things out, but those were both good swings, imho. And, he has not shown the slightest hesitation to move on once he's made his mind up that something isn't working. Does anyone miss Porzingis? Josh Green? I know some miss Grimes, but I feel like that's going to play out badly for him, not for the Mavs. I think he should've accepted their offer and settled into the role they wanted for him. We'll see. 

Harrison is going to be wrong as much as or maybe more often than he's right, but I swear we'd be saying that about any GM the Mavs had. If I was an Utah fan (ugh, Utah) I'd LOATHE Danny Ainge, who has wasted years there with almost nothing to show for it. That's just one example. The reality is that the job is so much more difficult than it looks to backseat drivers. 

I'm not trying to defend the guy, I swear. I'm just saying that if the GM is why someone is out on the Mavs, they're very unlikely to ever be happy following the Mavs. If the team is good, it will be fun for us. If they're not, then maybe he'll get fired. Or he won't. Either way, we're so powerless to do anything about it. If the fan backlash the team withstood over the last several months didn't do the trick, no craft we fans possess has any bearing on his future. I want the Mavs to be good, and have little hope for a GM change anytime soon, so I'll choose to hope Harrison performs better in his role than others expect.

I get the argument that it was not 100% Lindsey, but its hard not to see the stark difference in direction and competence between when Linsey was here and when he was not.  I have beaten to death the difference in competence, but the difference in overall direction is even more stark.  Without Linsey the focus has been Nico guys and the team consistently got older.  They bring in Linsdey, and all of the sudden we add Lively, Williams, DJJ, Exum, PJ, Gafford and Grimes.  In one year this team got significantly younger (and all on good moves except for the Williams miss).  The second Linsey is out the door Nico lets DJJ walk and goes all in on a 34 year old Klay (Nico guy), trades Luka for 31 year old Davis (Nico guy), dumps Grimes for 29 year old Martin, signs a 33 year old Kyrie (Nico guy) and signs a 29 year old Dlo (Nico guy).  Its amazing how much older this team got in just a year.  Hopefully the next Nico guy actually fits the roster.  Regardless I have zero faith he can (or has any interest to) rebuild a young roster around Flagg timeline after the current one.

The Cuban/Nelson combination could be very frustrating, especially the whole plan powder stuff.  But Nelson had a good eye for European talent and I don't remember them making a catastrophic move the level of the Doncic trade.  You say they would not make the PJ/Gafford moves (I say what if Linsey was there) but I suggest there is a much bigger chance that Brunson and Dorian are still here (Nelson was a huge Brunson fan).  That team is probably better (and significantly younger) than the current team.  If its not, its only because Nico fell back asswards into Flagg.

I agree there are other bad GMs.  I agree that the job is hard and there are always going to be misses.  I don't agree that we should simply accept the current GM because nobody is perfect.  I tolerated Nelson, hated the early Nico years (mostly blaming Cuban for bringing in a figurehead) loved the Cuban/Nico/Linsey year and absolutely hate with a passion what we have gotten with Nico on his own.  I realize my dislike of the GM will have no effect on anyone, but I'm not capable of ignoring historical evidence.  I hope good moves are made, but I am going in with what I believe to be realistic expectations.

[KillerLeft]

The Cuban/Nelson combination could be very frustrating, especially the whole plan powder stuff.  But Nelson had a good eye for European talent and I don't remember them making a catastrophic move the level of the Doncic trade.  You say they would not make the PJ/Gafford moves (I say what if Linsey was there) but I suggest there is a much bigger chance that Brunson and Dorian are still here (Nelson was a huge Brunson fan).  That team is probably better (and significantly younger) than the current team.  If its not, its only because Nico fell back asswards into Flagg.

Look, there are some very compelling points to point to in order to support displeasure with Harrison's job here, and I'm neither trying to argue against those points or change anyone's mind. Mine is more of plea for us to enjoy the moment for a change, and even then maybe it's more just a statement of how I'm approaching the season, not a call to arms for anyone else. 

Having said that, I'd submit that the Nash fiasco might've been worse than the Luka trade. The Brunson thing, too, for that matter. You might not like what Harrison got for Luka, and you might not think he got enough, but he did get something. And, before the trade deadline that everyone loves and have now decided to attribute to Lindsey, it's now widely known that the main goal was to send two 1st round picks for Kyle Kuzma, who by all accounts shut it down by saying he didn't want to play here. I have no doubt Lindsey was involved in the deals that did happen, but he was also undoubtedly involved in that offer, as well as the prioritization of it. So, honest question: Had that deal gone through, would that have been Harrison's fault, or Lindsey's? The guy who's in charge is in charge, end of the day.