2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

This option is still on the table for sure. Especially if we make a deep playoff run.........the only guys that really make it worth it to go the cap space route are Collins, Conley and Lowry. The rest of what’s out there that we could use is close enough to the MLE value wise that it may make more sense to do that. Hardaway  price has surely gone up recently

I am resigned to the fact that Mavs are unlikely to land those guys and with THJ looking better its like maybe just run it back and add to, versus trying to swap out like 5-6 guys.

[StepBackJay]

Another idea for Holmes fans would be S&T Holmes for Powell which lets you "overpay" Holmes by a couple mil or so. I still think 15 or 16/yr is his ceiling contract wise.

If you have 17 for THJ, 15 for Holmes, you still have enough for like a Dinwiddie/Dragic player + bring back WCS for rMLE.

Holmes fans would like that, I am not sure that's significantly better than bring everybody back + add a Dragic or MLE shooter and maybe do a Brunson/M. Robinson swap (who checks a lot of boxes Holmes does anyway).

[Mavs2021]

One thing I´ll repeat though:

You can switch ON playing defense, you can´t switch ON offensive talent.

Therefore as good as this team might look without Porzingis due to the better overall movement and activity with guys like Powell, DFS, Kleber, WCS, Richardson, Green....

It´s no substitute for elite offensive talent, when the defensive intensity goes up a level in the play-offs.

If we lose THJ or/and Porzingis, then we need at least one reliable 20 PPG scorer back in return.

The last few pages I think the focus is on the wrong end of the floor.

Look at the Knicks. Best team defense. Individually anyone ever rated Randle, Noel, Payton, Bullock or Barrett as elite defenders? It´s the coaching of Thibs, the effort and the unity.

Now I think they´ll probably be burned out in 2-3 years from his coaching style, but it only proves the idea that you can switch ON playing defense for the play-offs. We did it, when we won the championship. The old farts squeezed out the last bit of physical energy combined with their veteran brains to play shutdown team defense, when necessary.

 I´m not denying we could really use one more great guard on ball defender, but we need to establish the offensive talent first.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Another idea for Holmes fans would be S&T Holmes for Powell which lets you "overpay" Holmes by a couple mil or so. I still think 15 or 16/yr is his ceiling contract wise.

If you have 17 for THJ, 15 for Holmes, you still have enough for like a Dinwiddie/Dragic player + bring back WCS for rMLE.

Holmes fans would like that, I am not sure that's significantly better than bring everybody back + add a Dragic or MLE shooter and maybe do a Brunson/M. Robinson swap (who checks a lot of boxes Holmes does anyway).

Isn't one of the issues there Sacto's ability to go that high in a S&T?

[dynamicalVoid]

This option is still on the table for sure. Especially if we make a deep playoff run.........the only guys that really make it worth it to go the cap space route are Collins, Conley and Lowry. The rest of what’s out there that we could use is close enough to the MLE value wise that it may make more sense to do that. Hardaway  price has surely gone up recently

I like THJ.

I think Luka needs shooters around him.

But just last week people were calling for THJ's head.  Too inconsistent.  Has great game then 8 games where he is non-existent.

Which is it?

How valuable is his position to the Mavs?

Are Mavs incorporating him a little more late season to get him in a more Playoff ready position?  

Because THJ screams of a "wait and see what he does in the Playoffs" kind of guy to me.  His price hasnt increased in my book at all.   

Im not increasing his value until he proves he can do it consistently post-season.

[StepBackJay]

Isn't one of the issues there Sacto's ability to go that high in a S&T?

Dunno. They are at 100 mil. Powell would a usable replacement. They might want to try Bagley at center one more year. I don't think a hard cap would limit them in any meaningful way next season.

[Jason Terry]

Are we even sure Holmes is better than Powell? I haven’t seen him enough to know if he’s a rim protector but his D rating is much worse than Powell(who can play smart team D). Holmes can score down low ISO which would help, but Powell elite PnR may cancel that out. Neither can shoot. Maybe Holmes is a better rebounder.....just doesn’t seem like it would be worth it to go out of our way and get him. I’d rather have Theis for cheaper. Powell and WCS seem like they could handle the C position just fine by themselves if needed after we use our resources to upgrade elsewhere

[cow]

17m for THJ seems insane.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

Are we even sure Holmes is better than Powell?

Nope.

Holmes entire value is built around a floater/push shot, mostly out of pick and pop.   It's a really unique shot and he's very efficient with it, but Powell is also highly efficient in PnR  as a rim roller.   Neither one have a 3 point shot or creating buckets with some old school back to the basket low post game.   To me they're similar players and similar strengths and weaknesses, even if they go about it in a different style.

[StepBackJay]

17m for THJ seems insane.

I have been penciling it in just bc it seems like that is the going rate. I could be wrong.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/so...limit-100/

The most recent signing was Bog for 18/per and THJ had better numbers than he did. Maybe he's more in the Kennard, Ross, KCP range which is 13/per (or slightly higher with some inflation)?

If he can be retained more like 13-14 that would be fantastic.

[Jommybone]

Get ready to add Josh Green to that list.  He and Luka have played 167 minutes together and the team is 116.9/99.4 in those minutes.   

As you add in a 3rd man you can find plenty of good combos with Green/Luka.  In fact, it is hard to find a bad one.  The most used 3-man is Green, Luka, THJ at +21.6.   What is really encouraging (I shouldn't have to post Small Sample Size Alert, but I will because there is always that one guy) is if you put KP/Luka/Green together in a 4-man lineup and add Brunson or THJ, your net ratings are 14.3 and 36.6 and both groupings have good D.  

I know it is super early and the energy Green puts out in 12 minutes won't be the same when he starts getting 25.  But he is an important part of solving the defensive woes we have because Luka and KP aren't good defenders.

DanSchwamie, love your optimism. Would like to join in it. But I don’t think there’s a legit role for a non-shooting shooting guard in today’s league. I don’t doubt Josh will grow into a shooter. But I haven’t seen it happen yet. Fingers crossed.

[Tyler]

DanSchwamie, love your optimism. Would like to join in it. But I don’t think there’s a legit role for a non-shooting shooting guard in today’s league. I don’t doubt Josh will grow into a shooter. But I haven’t seen it happen yet. Fingers crossed.

My completely unscientific observation with Green is that he's a very young player with insane athletic ability whose shooting mechanics haven't caught up to his body just yet. Just think of him as a young buck who can jump like crazy but hasn't figured out how to walk with any amount of chill. I think it will come, and when it does he has the potential to be really good.

In the meantime, I sorta see him as the guard version of Powell  -- a high-energy glue guy who makes everyone else click -- which is a really useful player to have.

[dynamicalVoid]

Nope.

Holmes entire value is built around a floater/push shot, mostly out of pick and pop.   It's a really unique shot and he's very efficient with it, but Powell is also highly efficient in PnR  as a rim roller.   Neither one have a 3 point shot or creating buckets with some old school back to the basket low post game.   To me they're similar players and similar strengths and weaknesses, even if they go about it in a different style.

One thing I will say in Holmes favor...and I might be completely wrong on this...

He seems extremely light on his feet and athletic.   I dont think Powell has near the lateral quickness Holmes has.   I think Powell is coming along better than people hoped...but he seems hampered laterally.   And...that might have nothing to do with his injury.

What I am trying to say and its not a perfect description is...Holmes looks like a cat and Powell like a dog athletically.   Almost to the point is looks like Holmes could guard 1 through 5.   Powell cant hang with guards.  You have to have fundamentals, though...and Powell has them.  I dont know anything about the small details that make a PF good or sloppy.  Is Holmes good or sloppy...I dont know.

[StepBackJay]

DanSchwamie, love your optimism. Would like to join in it. But I don’t think there’s a legit role for a non-shooting shooting guard in today’s league. I don’t doubt Josh will grow into a shooter. But I haven’t seen it happen yet. Fingers crossed.

I think a) he does so much (energy, rebounding, etc) he will have a role (not necessarily starting) and b) he will likely improve as a shooter along the way.

Ben Simmons is an all-star and has zero jumpshot so I think there is a place for a guard who does that. Green is like a shorter, off-guard/wing, poor-man's Simmons in that he plays defense, can pass, brings energy, rebounds. I haven't seen Green do anything in the post, I don't know he has that in his bag. He does have a floater in mid-range shot. He obv needs to work a lot on his jumpshot.

[StepBackJay]

One thing I will say in Holmes favor...and I might be completely wrong on this...

He seems extremely light on his feet and athletic.   I dont think Powell has near the lateral quickness Holmes has.   I think Powell is coming along better than people hoped...but he seems hampered laterally.   And...that might have nothing to do with his injury.

What I am trying to say and its not a perfect description is...Holmes looks like a cat and Powell like a dog athletically.   Almost to the point is looks like Holmes could guard 1 through 5.   Powell cant hang with guards.  You have to have fundamentals, though...and Powell has them.  I dont know anything about the small details that make a PF good or sloppy.  Is Holmes good or sloppy...I dont know.

DP moves his feet really well, that's actually the thing he does good on defense. He is not a shot blocker per se (altho randomly has been blocking shots recently) and gets pushed around by bigger bodies. I do like that he slides around to the right spot on defense at least in the paint. He can close out to shooters as well. Any big is going to have some trouble staying in front of a fast guard out on the perimeter but Mavs do drop coverage usually anyways in those situations. I have seen DP have some success on nights where KP is out and Mavs decide to do a lot of switching.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I have always seen the idea of Holmes on this roster as something you add with DP, not to upgrade.  I feel like at this point we've identified that Luka plays better with a rim running center.  I know that Holmes push shot was mentioned but he does finish plenty at the rim and he still rolls into that push shot which gives Luka that room he needs to operate.  Holmes defense is very switchable as mentioned as well and he's an underrated rim protector, he's actually averaging more blocks a game than KP and has had 4 games this season with 5 or more blocks.

The biggest issue with the Luka/KP duo is that KP plays best in our offense as the 5 but Luka plays better with literally every other one of our 5s.  In my perfect world, we would move KP in an attempt to upgrade our talent at the 2 and 4 positions and then use cap space to sign Holmes.  It's not a matter of Holmes vs DP, it's a matter of making sure you have a roster where you can always have a rim running center on the floor (WCS included).  I think we all agree that the skill sets we bring in should be skill sets that compliment Luka offensively and continue to help us build a contending defense.  I think Holmes checks both those boxes in a big way.

[F Gump]

Another idea for Holmes fans would be S&T Holmes for Powell which lets you "overpay" Holmes by a couple mil or so. I still think 15 or 16/yr is his ceiling contract wise.

That idea is probably a non-starter. SAC's limit on a contract for RH, as they sit, is about 10.5M starting salary.

So SAC can't sign RH to the needed size contract to enable the sign-and-trade unless they do some major roster reconstruction. If they do that work, it would be to keep him, I would think, not to swap him.

[StepBackJay]

That idea is probably a non-starter. SAC's limit on a contract for RH, as they sit, is about 10.5M starting salary.

So SAC can't sign RH to the needed size contract to enable the sign-and-trade unless they do some major roster reconstruction. If they do that work, it would be to keep him, I would think, not to swap him.

Ya I forgot ab that. I am down on the Holmes idea anyway these days.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I have always seen the idea of Holmes on this roster as something you add with DP, not to upgrade.  I feel like at this point we've identified that Luka plays better with a rim running center.  I know that Holmes push shot was mentioned but he does finish plenty at the rim and he still rolls into that push shot which gives Luka that room he needs to operate.  Holmes defense is very switchable as mentioned as well and he's an underrated rim protector, he's actually averaging more blocks a game than KP and has had 4 games this season with 5 or more blocks.

The biggest issue with the Luka/KP duo is that KP plays best in our offense as the 5 but Luka plays better with literally every other one of our 5s.  In my perfect world, we would move KP in an attempt to upgrade our talent at the 2 and 4 positions and then use cap space to sign Holmes.  It's not a matter of Holmes vs DP, it's a matter of making sure you have a roster where you can always have a rim running center on the floor (WCS included).  I think we all agree that the skill sets we bring in should be skill sets that compliment Luka offensively and continue to help us build a contending defense.  I think Holmes checks both those boxes in a big way.

All of this is well put.  I like the idea of one of Holmes/Powell/WCS on the floor at all times.  DFS at PF has seemed to work well with Powell and WCS lately, where it hasn’t worked so well with KP.  Part of that has been THJ has been on fire.  But, you absolutely can’t even try KP/DFS/THJ as your front court.  I also think it would be MUCH easier to build a team around a specific prototype as long as the version of that prototype is good enough.  

With that said, I’m not totally convinced our PF rotation can’t be KP and Maxi as long as we have the right rim runners at center.  I’m not convinced it can work either, but I’d like to see a little of it.

[Mavs03]

John Collins last 2 games: 

Indiana: 25 points 7 rebounds 1 block

Washington: 28 points 8 rebounds 2 blocks

He's starting to play well for Atlanta.  For the season, he's averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds.  He's shooting 56% from the field, 39% from 3, 83% from the FT line.  Just envisioning a trio of Luka, KP, and Collins.  I know he's a restricted free agent, but we can make it uncomfortable for Atlanta with a front-loaded contract.  They have salary cap issues and for what it's worth, they've actually played decent without Collins at times throughout the season.  Okongwu has stepped up his game in Collins' absence.  However, he has a long way to go.  He's very unpolished.  But ultimately, Atlanta has to pay big money for Trae Young and Deandre Hunter in the next 2 years.  I believe they would like to keep Collins but are not willing to match a big contract.  Remember, they offered Collins 4 years 90 million at the beginning of the year which Collins rejected.  It also helps Collins' agent is Jeff Schwartz (a Mavs friendly agent)