2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

Another thing we haven't talked about is a straight up Robinson for Brunson swap. Their contracts look similar in that they will both be UFAs in 2022. This could be a draft-night deal. As much as I like Brunson I am worried ab the Knicks overpaying him in 2022 bc that's the sort of thing they do.

You might even be able to get one of Dallas picks back from NYK if they really want Brunson bad enough.

Robinson would be an upgrade over WCS but also be a potential long-term piece. Alternatively Mavs can hold onto Brunson until the TDL and then decide whether or not they will be able to keep him next summer.

[Scott41theMavs]

Another thing we haven't talked about is a straight up Robinson for Brunson swap. Their contracts look similar in that they will both be UFAs in 2022. This could be a draft-night deal. As much as I like Brunson I am worried ab the Knicks overpaying him in 2022 bc that's the sort of thing they do.

You might even be able to get one of Dallas picks back from NYK if they really want Brunson bad enough.

Robinson would be an upgrade over WCS but also be a potential long-term piece. Alternatively Mavs can hold onto Brunson until the TDL and then decide whether or not they will be able to keep him next summer.

Considering that our greatest need is a second playmaker, you'd better have a plan to replace Brunson immediately if you're going to trade him away. Luka isn't playing 48 mpg with no one else who can create or playmake.

[Jommybone]

Players who fit marvelously next to Luka:

#1 Marcus Smart
#2 Myles Turner
#3 Dorian Finney-Smith
#4 Dwight Powell

I absolutely LOVE Brunson and Kleber. And I haven’t given up on Porzingis. But I’d sell my left arm to see the four guys above playing next to LD.

[StepBackJay]

Considering that our greatest need is a second playmaker, you'd better have a plan to replace Brunson immediately if you're going to trade him away. Luka isn't playing 48 mpg with no one else who can create or playmake.

Ya so maybe not draft night, there is no reason it would have to happen then. I was thinking if you get more playmakers in FA or by trade it might make Brunson disposable. As much as I like him I think the threat of NYK giving him a giant deal is very real next year in which case I would rather sell high.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Players who fit marvelously next to Luka:

#1 Marcus Smart
#2 Myles Turner
#3 Dorian Finney-Smith
#4 Dwight Powell

I absolutely LOVE Brunson and Kleber. And I haven’t given up on Porzingis. But I’d sell my left arm to see the four guys above playing next to LD.

Get ready to add Josh Green to that list.  He and Luka have played 167 minutes together and the team is 116.9/99.4 in those minutes.   

As you add in a 3rd man you can find plenty of good combos with Green/Luka.  In fact, it is hard to find a bad one.  The most used 3-man is Green, Luka, THJ at +21.6.   What is really encouraging (I shouldn't have to post Small Sample Size Alert, but I will because there is always that one guy) is if you put KP/Luka/Green together in a 4-man lineup and add Brunson or THJ, your net ratings are 14.3 and 36.6 and both groupings have good D.  

I know it is super early and the energy Green puts out in 12 minutes won't be the same when he starts getting 25.  But he is an important part of solving the defensive woes we have because Luka and KP aren't good defenders.

[mvossman]

Conley, Brog, Lowry all play defense.

That was my point.  It was the other guys I was saying do not make sense due to lack of defense.

[IamDougieFresh]

#4 Dwight Powell

[mvossman]

I strongly disagree here...I think our offense is good to win games in the regular season but its not as a good as it needs to be for a playoff run. You also have to limit Luka's usage rate and have a secondary option when teams throw double teams at him. 

Our team is fucked if Luka has to miss any length of time.

That is why I am advocating for a two way player.  I'm not saying the offense does not need a boost, I am saying the offense is a lot closer to contention level than the defense, so completely ignoring the defense is not going to be a winning formula.  Replacing JRich with somebody who can legitimately space the floor and can punish other teams with playmaking when they double Luka would make a big difference on offense.  But it's not going to matter if they are a poor defender.  We are already struggling to be average defensively and it seems counterproductive to spend our limited assets to make it worse.

[SkenfromLMF]

I am at a point that I could live with our big rotation, and our wing rotation with THJ, and Green. 

This would lead me to stay above the cap and pursue another Secondary play maker with the MLE. For this to work Richardson has to accept that he is more Demarr Derozen than JJ Reddick. In fact I would get all the Ro Blackman tapes out of the archives and get Richardson into that type of mindset as a scorer.

2nd move would be to try and S&T Reddick to Philly Brooklyn or Boston... Danny Green or the Brooklyn/Boston equivalent??

Of course playoff performance is the final grade, so this premature view of the roster going forward is nowhere near set in stone, but I saw a lot to like with Richardson as a mid-range scorer rather than trying to make him a long range bomber.

[StepBackJay]

With each game it seems more and more likely that THJ is retained and most likely as a starter as his salary will dictate that. The big caveat will be his playoff performance. We really need the current iteration of Timmy to show up big in the playoffs.

With that assumption + the fact that **I think** KP is staying at least one more year (still not super confident of that), I think 4 of your 5 starters are in place.

The latest idea I have been thinking about is moving Brunson for Mitchell Robinson to play along KP. Robinson is like Powell and WCS combined in some ways and would solidify that 5th spot. You are losing Brunson in the process but have your starting 5. The bench has Maxi/Powell/Green which is a good start but you need shooting and playmaking on your bench in a big way.

Assuming THJ is in that 4/70 range you still have 17 mil-ish to get your playmaker and shooter. I like Dinwiddie as a replacement who can score, pass and get to the FT line more consistently than Brunson. Ideally Mavs could get him in an opt-in and trade to preserve his bird rights or structure a team-friendly deal that makes up for some of the injury risk. The most ideal situation would be a J Rich double opt-in and trade (not sure if it's cap legal?) which would allow Mavs to operate over the cap. Otherwise the challenge will be finding a shooter or two without a lot of money. Basically leftover cap space and the rMLE would be your tools for finding a shooter. Not ideal.

So the other THJ+ path would be finding trade partners for J Rich so you can get a player + MLE. I like some kind of Orlando deal that would net T Ross for JR. I you were able to pull something like that off then you still have MLE to spend one more bench piece, probably a shooter (as well as a BAE flier).

[StepBackJay]

Another idea for a bench ball mover would be Rubio for JR/WCS with JR and/or WCS going directly to the Wolves or one or both pieces going elsewhere. Wolves salary is pretty high so I think Rubio would be someone they would like to move off the books or for a cheaper player. If Mavs did that deal then they'd have MLE for shooter + BAE for a small piece. I would combine this with the Brunson for M. Robinson idea:

Luka/Rubio
THJ/MLE shooter/Burke
DFS/Green
Robinson/Powell
KP/Maxi

[Branduil]

Really not interested in any guys who can't shoot.

[StepBackJay]

Really not interested in any guys who can't shoot.

We messed up with the Curry trade bc he was the perfect guy as the shooter off the bench (or potential swing starter) at only 8 mil/yr. Mavs won't be able to get that back unless Terry becomes Curry 2.0 in a hurry.

[StepBackJay]

The other thing to think ab is that Mavs might be able to money whip JJR on a 1 yr deal if they operate over the cap. Mavs can avoid luxury tax this year even if they pay JJR above market value. I know JJR wants to head back to the NE but he will be taking a major salary cut to do so.

I have gone back and forth but operating over the cap does let you keep some pieces: THJ, WCS, JJR (in theory). Even JR could be kept as asset management and moved later if it came down to it. Those players + full MLE are probably more than what you can get for cap space after THJ is resigned unless you can find just a real difference maker for that 17 mil range. Dragic to me is very gettable for MLE assuming that the Heat spend their cap space on a big name.

Luka/Dragic (MLE)/Brunson (Mavs will decide on whether to trade at some point)
THJ/Rich (retained or traded)/JJR (1 yr deal)
DFS/Green
KP/Maxi
Powell/WCS

Mavs could flirt with luxury tax line but don't have to spend BAE. Also in this scenario Mavs would have a couple expirings for a trade deadline type deal).

[Branduil]

That's literally just the same team, I mean I guess if we win the championship this year that's fine.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I was thinking last night, if the Cavs land the first pick and take Cade they're going to have to reconstruct their roster right?

Would you use Porzingis to eat Love's contract if it meant you could pair Luka with Sexton?  Feels like he fits the mold we're looking for.

[omahen]

Would you use Porzingis to eat Love's contract if it meant you could pair Luka with Sexton?  Feels like he fits the mold we're looking for.

I think Sexton is an inefficient chucker who has a lot of growing up to do. I am affraid it would be a dissapointment. Also his numbers seem inflated in junk minutes. For example he scored 10 points in the q4 game of the first Dal-Cle match, when everything was decided. And we could see he has no idea how to run a PnR with an elite PnR guy like Allen. I don't think we would have the patience to wait for him to grow up.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think Sexton is an inefficient chucker who has a lot of growing up to do. I am affraid it would be a dissapointment. Also his numbers seem inflated in junk minutes. For example he scored 10 points in the q4 game of the first Dal-Cle match, when everything was decided. And we could see he has no idea how to run a PnR with an elite PnR guy like Allen. I don't think we would have the patience to wait for him to grow up.

I think the intensity that he brings defensively would fit great next to Luka but I do agree that he has a lot of growing up to do and makes poor decisions on offense (if it's as if Allen isn't even on their team).

If they get the first pick it's going to be interesting for them.  Would almost make more sense to take Mobley and fit him next to Allen and roll with the guards they have.

[Jason Terry]

The other thing to think ab is that Mavs might be able to money whip JJR on a 1 yr deal if they operate over the cap. Mavs can avoid luxury tax this year even if they pay JJR above market value. I know JJR wants to head back to the NE but he will be taking a major salary cut to do so.

I have gone back and forth but operating over the cap does let you keep some pieces: THJ, WCS, JJR (in theory). Even JR could be kept as asset management and moved later if it came down to it. Those players + full MLE are probably more than what you can get for cap space after THJ is resigned unless you can find just a real difference maker for that 17 mil range. Dragic to me is very gettable for MLE assuming that the Heat spend their cap space on a big name.

Luka/Dragic (MLE)/Brunson (Mavs will decide on whether to trade at some point)
THJ/Rich (retained or traded)/JJR (1 yr deal)
DFS/Green
KP/Maxi
Powell/WCS

Mavs could flirt with luxury tax line but don't have to spend BAE. Also in this scenario Mavs would have a couple expirings for a trade deadline type deal).

This option is still on the table for sure. Especially if we make a deep playoff run.........the only guys that really make it worth it to go the cap space route are Collins, Conley and Lowry. The rest of what’s out there that we could use is close enough to the MLE value wise that it may make more sense to do that. Hardaway  price has surely gone up recently

[StepBackJay]

That's literally just the same team, I mean I guess if we win the championship this year that's fine.

Ya its just like this team is pretty good. I am losing faith by the minute that there is a big time difference maker out there just waiting for the Mavs to sign him. Maybe I am wrong? For example Lonzo is a nice fit on paper but you would have to outbid other suitors and it means no THJ. I wonder if Lonzo is enough of an upgrade over THJ to do that.

For me I like the idea of Brunson for Mitchell. I imagine like what if you had a guy that finishes like Powell but can block shots and defend in that starting lineup? WCS has been good but he still misses a lot of easy shots. Mavs could just bring back the gang, get Mitchell, start THJ and then add to the bench mob.