What happened to THJ?

[Kammrath]

have you completely given up on the idea that he could be a positive next season, given that he plays a drastically reduced role?

I will never say there is no chance that someone could have their impact change based on continuity, role/team change, context, etc. I just think it is REALLY unlikely that JR's impact changes so drastically that he becomes an on-court asset for the Mavs. I also don't see enough TALENT in him to take that risk. 

For those who want to hold on to KP hoping it flips, I 100% get it as the dude is oozing with talent and potential. But with JR? Nah, just roll with JG and move on.

[KillerLeft]

I will never say there is no chance that someone could have their impact change based on continuity, role/team change, context, etc. I just think it is REALLY unlikely that JR's impact changes so drastically that he becomes an on-court asset for the Mavs. I also don't see enough TALENT in him to take that risk. 

For those who want to hold on to KP hoping it flips, I 100% get it as the dude is oozing with talent and potential. But with JR? Nah, just roll with JG and move on.

Fair enough. I agree with all of the above, and I guess it's the financial side to roster building that has me inching the other way on both players. 

But, I could certainly live with a plan of letting Richardson go and betting on a big jump for Green, especially if Richardson brings some sort of return.

[Kammrath]

the financial side

FOR SURE. 

I am 100% OUT on KP and have been since the calendar turned. But I 100% understand why guys want to give him one more year to try to fit. I just think that will hurt the Mavs in the long run. But that is just a guess on my part.

[ItsGoTime]

All of that to say that if the hurdle Green has to clear next year is the role Richardson has played during these first two playoff games, then yeah, I think that's possible.

You think Green can come in next year and do what JRich has done these first 2 games? That sounds pretty ambitious to me. Not impossible, but pretty unlikely given what he showed this year (offensively). Now, if we’re talking about him an overall positive, like JRich has in this role, I think there is possibility of that.


One other thing, with JRich and JB hypothetically coming off the bench next year, why can’t Green come in with them? In other words, why couldn’t it be JB/JRich/Green/Maxi/Powell or WCS?

I think the probable reason JRich is doing better is cause he is going against lesser competition (for the most part). He has looked fine with the ball in his hands as a secondary ball handler off the bench. I think he would do well in ghat role. We would at that point need to find a starter ball handler and a starter big wing with very little money to acquire said players.

[DanSchwartzgan]

JR is -8.0 on/off post All-Star. He is -7.5 on/off since 3/1/21. He has had NO significant stretch of being a positive for this team and has been the absolute caboose in on/off for basically the entire season.

We (probably I) need to get our/my terminology correct.  BB Reference has monthly splits and it is nothing like this (in fact, it is as I described it).  For the full season (and 82games.com lines up with this), The team is dead neutral when JRich is on the court.  His +/- is really strong (according to BBRef) for his most used lineups.  

His issue is the team plays at a +4 when he’s off.  So, his on minus off is -4.  I’d be more concerned if the team was terrible any time he’s on the court...it isn’t.  The question to look into is what are those lineups that are doing so well when he’s on the court?  I’m curious which program you use to get the kinds of splits you are able to get?

---

...and gathering data.


You already implied this, just adding the idea to this concluding sentence for emphAsis.

Thank you Wayne Winston

[KillerLeft]

You think Green can come in next year and do what JRich has done these first 2 games? That sounds pretty ambitious to me. Not impossible, but pretty unlikely given what he showed this year (offensively). Now, if we’re talking about him an overall positive, like JRich has in this role, I think there is possibility of that.

Yeah, that's a good call, particularly on the shooting. But, I guess the reason I dismissed that (unintentionally) in my hypothetical comparison is that I still don't buy Richardson's shooting, despite his timely shots in this series, so far. In every other way, you could tell me Green will be better than Richardson next year and I wouldn't be shocked. I think he's a more talented player and that it's only a matter of time.

[fifteenth]

Thank you Wayne Winston

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_L._Winston

[KillerLeft]

One other thing, with JRich and JB hypothetically coming off the bench next year, why can’t Green come in with them? In other words, why couldn’t it be JB/JRich/Green/Maxi/Powell or WCS?

There's no reason in the world this can't happen, and it might even be great, only Richardson is an established, veteran player who will make some type of real money next season. IF his role is destined to be marginalized in the playoffs, my thinking is that another developing player should get that job behind Green, so that Richardson's money can be used elsewhere. Plus, Richardson has quite a bit of say in what he signs up for next season, as we know. 

You can go 10-11 deep in the regular season, and that's good, but all that really matters is the top 8 at the end of the year. If I'm Richardson, I'm not re-upping here (or opting in) unless I feel confident that I'm likely to end up in that top 8, and if I'm the Mavericks, I'm wondering pretty hard right now how long it will be before I'm better off putting Green out there instead. Certainly, now isn't the time, despite what you'll read in the discord during a random third quarter Clippers run, but next season? Maybe.

[ItsGoTime]

Yeah, that's a good call, particularly on the shooting. But, I guess the reason I dismissed that (unintentionally) in my hypothetical comparison is that I still don't buy Richardson's shooting, despite his timely shots in this series, so far. In every other way, you could tell me Green will be better than Richardson next year and I wouldn't be shocked. I think he's a more talented player and that it's only a matter of time.

I can see the talent standpoint and it seems he has the work ethic. I just look at how long guys like DFS snd Kleber have taken to get their shot to where it is now, and even with them now, I’m not extremely confident an open look is going in (more this way with DFS than Kleber, who’s taken big strides year to earn that confidence).


JRich, as Dan is pointing out, has been shooting pretty well since the ASB. I have liked his ball handling possessions these first 2 games as well (which is the time frame you’ve used in your original statement). Just think Green has so fsr to go on offense it would take a MIP type season to get to where JRich is right now.

[KillerLeft]

Just think Green has so fsr to go on offense it would take a MIP type season to get to where JRich is right now.

Ok, so that's where we diverge. I agree with most of your take. Green's shooting has a ways to go, and is ultimately very, very important. Probably most important on a Luka team. 

But, the above reads like you think shooting is the ONLY thing involved with playing offense in Dallas, and while I'm sure you don't think that, I just have to address it. Let me put it this way: I think Green is a much more advanced offensive player than you seem to believe. More advanced than either Kleber or DFS were when they got here. More advanced in some ways than Richardson is right now. In fact, with the exception of shooting, I think it's LIKELY that Green will be a much better OFFENSIVE player than Richardson at some point in the near future. Right now, he's a better ball-mover with better instincts, imo. I watch Richardson out there, and while he does have decent handles, he just doesn't seem to know what to do or when to do it. 

Again, I don't disagree that Green's shooting MUST improve for him to be a viable option. I just push back at the DFS/Kleber comparisons. Those dudes had to learn to shoot to be of ANY value on offense, whereas if/when Green starts hitting some of those catch and shoot opportunities, an entire spectrum of ways in which he can help on that end will open up.

[fifteenth]

Just think Green has so fsr to go on offense

Agree with Killer. His shot is way behind the rest of his offense. He has a head start on guys like DFS and Maxi based on his non-shooting offensive skills.

[ItsGoTime]

Ok, so that's where we diverge. I agree with most of your take. Green's shooting has a ways to go, and is ultimately very, very important. Probably most important on a Luka team. 

But, the above reads like you think shooting is the ONLY thing involved with playing offense in Dallas, and while I'm sure you don't think that, I just have to address it. Let me put it this way: I think Green is a much more advanced offensive player than you seem to believe. More advanced than either Kleber or DFS were when they got here. More advanced in some ways than Richardson is right now. In fact, with the exception of shooting, I think it's LIKELY that Green will be a much better OFFENSIVE player than Richardson at some point in the near future. Right now, he's a better ball-mover with better instincts, imo. I watch Richardson out there, and while he does have decent handles, he just doesn't seem to know what to do or when to do it. 

Again, I don't disagree that Green's shooting MUST improve for him to be a viable option. I just push back at the DFS/Kleber comparisons. Those dudes had to learn to shoot to be of ANY value on offense, whereas if/when Green starts hitting some of those catch and shoot opportunities, an entire spectrum of ways in which he can help on that end will open up.

I’ve been a proponent of scoring in more ways than just layup or 3 point shot, so yes, I have seen what you see in him. We either diverge on what JRich has shown us on offense more recently, or how far away Green has to put it all together, or both. I like the strides he showed towards the end of the year and that bodes well for his hopeful improvement next year, there is just a pretty big chasm between where he is and where he needs to be to fill a role like JRich is currently filling.

[SwisherPrice]

As a Green fan, I still think his ETA is the 2022-2023 season. If they don't keep JRich next year then I don't think they would be ready to roll with Green for 20+ minutes a game yet. I could see them bringing in another vet swingman for cheap.

However, I'm also not all the way out on JRich yet. I'm willing to give him a full offseason and camp to see if he can be even better next season

[KillerLeft]

We either diverge on what JRich has shown us on offense

This one.

[omahen]

Not defending or throwing JRich under the bus.  I’m not positive we know enough.  One other factor is Green.  I’m a Green optimist and if JRich is destined to be the backup defender to DFS, I wonder if Green can fill that limited role next season.  I’ve proposed JRich to Chicago for S&T Markkanen (who I see as a Melli replacement...O off the bench guy).  Then you get a veteran ball handler with the MLE.  Dragic has been suggested.  I don’t want to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands and want more of a 2/1 than a 1/2.  There is a fairly good list of guys out there who can take that role for up to about $9.5mm.

I think main issue with the team. Even if you decide to trade JRich in case he opts in and you also have MLE - which positions are you actually looking to improve with this kind of guys, who will realistically not be difference makers? We all agree we could use another PF. This we can get with MLE or trading JRich. But what would you do with the other? If you swap JRich or use MLE for another guard you basically take away Green minutes. 

I think the only answer is in combining two of our medium paid guys for one good player. Either in FA (sorry THJ) by letting THJ (sorry THJ again) and JRich walk or in a trade combining two of our 10 mil salaries and draft assets for a 20 mil guy.

I am also puzzled with all the JRich focus. He is paid 10 mil and at least makes the playoff rotation. Powell is basically not playing and is paid same money.

[embellisher]

But, I could certainly live with a plan of letting Richardson go and betting on a big jump for Green, especially if Richardson brings some sort of return.

That's where I am, I can see letting Richardson go if it brings a better fitting piece back. 

I’ve been a proponent of scoring in more ways than just layup or 3 point shot, so yes, I have seen what you see in him. We either diverge on what JRich has shown us on offense more recently, or how far away Green has to put it all together, or both. I like the strides he showed towards the end of the year and that bodes well for his hopeful improvement next year, there is just a pretty big chasm between where he is and where he needs to be to fill a role like JRich is currently filling.

One thing Richardson has over almost anybody is clutch 90% FT shooting. The only guy on this roster even close to that is JB.

I like that with his size, handles, and physicality that you can let Richardson drive when you're trying to hold off a run during crunch time and he's either going to score or get you 2 points at the free throw line.

[Hooper21]

As a Green fan, I still think his ETA is the 2022-2023 season. If they don't keep JRich next year then I don't think they would be ready to roll with Green for 20+ minutes a game yet. I could see them bringing in another vet swingman for cheap.

However, I'm also not all the way out on JRich yet. I'm willing to give him a full offseason and camp to see if he can be even better next season

Why do so many people think pro, veteran players need offseason and/or camp to work their way into a role on a team?  They either fit and can play or they don't.  They're played for years and should be able to dive right in.  

I don't think it's a matter of whether he's useful, because he's shown that he's a positive in several ways.  The 90% FT's especially.  Seems to me, it's a matter of his contract amount and how much he wants to be here.

[ItsGoTime]

That's where I am, I can see letting Richardson go if it brings a better fitting piece back. 


One thing Richardson has over almost anybody is clutch 90% FT shooting. The only guy on this roster even close to that is JB.

I like that with his size, handles, and physicality that you can let Richardson drive when you're trying to hold off a run during crunch time and he's either going to score or get you 2 points at the free throw line.

That was on full display last game.