What happened to THJ?

[Kammrath]

Maybe the Luka model is a single star and 8 guys who are all really good at specific things (no holes).  Luka seems to be better at making good players better than he is at making great players great-er.

I am 100% on board with this. This has been my stance for a couple years.

My issue with the team construction is mostly centered around KP (and to a much less extent JR). I think the Mavs could have much better fitting players or player with the money they spend on KP and JR. There are $43M invested in those two players who are ill-fitting. To bring either of them back would be a massive mistake IMO. NOTE: I do NOT fault the Mavs for acquiring either of them, but they need to be honest that the fit doesn't work. 

THJ, DP, DFS, Maxi, JB, JG, WCS, have all been shown to be GREAT fits with Luka. But I am also open to upgrading any and all of them. But KP and JR need to go, truly "addition by subtraction" in many ways for those two IMO.

[Scott41theMavs]

Isn’t that the question.  IF we are flawed, how can we win two playoff series (possibly against the teams with the first and second Net Ratings in the regular season).  Or better, if we can beat the best two regular season teams in the league in playoff series, are we that flawed?

I think back to your post about having the 3rd best D-Rating in the league against top competition (can’t recall the exact data point).  Maybe we are better than most of us perceive.

No need to count chickens too early.  Just a thought.  But it has always been an issue that going after a “third star” means risking the loss of two good players for a shot at one great one (been saying this since pre-season).  The “third star” market is pretty thin this summer and I’m not sure there is room for another high usage guy on this roster.  It took Conley a year to figure out how to co-exist with Mitchell.  KP hasn’t figured it out with Luka yet and I’m not thrilled with what that looks like if we add someone else of that ilk.  Maybe the Luka model is a single star and 8 guys who are all really good at specific things (no holes).  Luka seems to be better at making good players better than he is at making great players great-er.

I think the Mavs would still be foolish to remain completely heliocentric moving forward. Even if they wanted it to be such with Luka on the floor, he can't play 48 minutes a game (conditioning*). Jrue Holiday would have been the absolute perfect fit - not sure there's a good-enough Jrue-lite out there. Need that unicorn (not the Unicorn) who is capable of quarterbacking the team when Luka sits, but also good off-ball and deferent, while being transcendent defensively at the point of attack. 

Assuming THJ has already earned his return to the Mavs (at this point, I'm just hoping it's something less than $22 mil a year, throwing up a little in my mouth), the only way forward this offseason is a KP trade and the MLE. Hope they do those things well. 

Agree completely with your rejoinder to Kamm of, How broke is it if we win two playoff series?

*See what I did there? 

---

I am 100% on board with this. This has been my stance for a couple years.

My issue with the team construction is mostly centered around KP (and to a much less extent JR). I think the Mavs could have much better fitting players or player with the money they spend on KP and JR. There are $43M invested in those two players who are ill-fitting. To bring either of them back would be a massive mistake IMO. NOTE: I do NOT fault the Mavs for acquiring either of them, but they need to be honest that the fit doesn't work. 

THJ, DP, DFS, Maxi, JB, JG, WCS, have all been shown to be GREAT fits with Luka. But I am also open to upgrading any and all of them. But KP and JR need to go, truly "addition by subtraction" in many ways for those two IMO.

See, I agree with this too.

[ItsGoTime]

I am 100% on board with this. This has been my stance for a couple years.

My issue with the team construction is mostly centered around KP (and to a much less extent JR). I think the Mavs could have much better fitting players or player with the money they spend on KP and JR. There are $43M invested in those two players who are ill-fitting. To bring either of them back would be a massive mistake IMO. NOTE: I do NOT fault the Mavs for acquiring either of them, but they need to be honest that the fit doesn't work. 

THJ, DP, DFS, Maxi, JB, JG, WCS, have all been shown to be GREAT fits with Luka. But I am also open to upgrading any and all of them. But KP and JR need to go, truly "addition by subtraction" in many ways for those two IMO.

I liked this post for much of the reply. I don’t agree with anyone on this team being addition by subtraction just yet though. 


If KP makes it out of the playoffs healthy, I really do believe he will come back next year much closer to the guy we thought we were getting in him. 

I also think another year of JRich possibly helps his play as well.

However, I agree that this team as currently constructed is flawed. If they make it through 3 rounds with this team (heck, even if we won it all) it is lightning in a bottle to me, and mostly, if not fully, due to the consistent greatness of Luka.

Only way this team could sustain this type of winning year in and year out is if KP and JRich are the guys we want them to be.

I am getting closer to saying I was wrong about DFS. Don’t care that he had a poor offensive outing last night. I honestly haven’t seen the (consistent) fire he’s shown these first two games. That is heart and soul. If we could get another 1 of him (man RoCo WITH him would be amazing), we wouldn’t need a JYD type. Hound dogs would work just fine!

[KillerLeft]

I am getting closer to saying I was wrong about DFS. Don’t care that he had a poor offensive outing last night. I honestly haven’t seen the fire he’s shown these first two games. That is heart and soul. If we could get another 1 of him (man RoCo WITH him would be amazing), we wouldn’t need a JYD type. Hound dogs would work just fine!

See, I think he has been this guy almost nonstop for the past two or three years. The only thing that has developed is the shooting, but the mentality, hard-nosed effort and fire have been his bag for a while, imo. 

As far as I’m concerned, DFS is maybe the second most important Maverick right now.

[Scott41theMavs]

See, I think he has been this guy almost nonstop for the past two or three years. The only thing that has developed is the shooting, but the mentality, hard-nosed effort and fire have been his bag for a while, imo. 

As far as I’m concerned, DFS is maybe the second most important Maverick right now.

The current problem the Mavs have is that THJ and DFS are in contention for that and the guy making the max contract isn't.

[KillerLeft]

The current problem the Mavs have is that THJ and DFS are in contention for that and the guy making the max contract isn't.

Couldn't agree more.

[Kammrath]

The current problem the Mavs have is that THJ and DFS are in contention for that and the guy making the max contract isn't.

KP has literally become for me, "Just don't screw up what happens on either end when you play!" I simply hope for him NOT to be a burden, more than I ever anticipate him lifting the team on either end.

[ItsGoTime]

See, I think he has been this guy almost nonstop for the past two or three years. The only thing that has developed is the shooting, but the mentality, hard-nosed effort and fire have been his bag for a while, imo. 

As far as I’m concerned, DFS is maybe the second most important Maverick right now.

You could be right, I just haven’t seen it. During this year there have been plenty of people saying he is not a lock down defender though. In all honesty, I know he hasn’t been before this year. Since his child was born though, I for sure have seen pretty concrete evidence of everything good said about him.

[Kammrath]

he is not a lock down defender

DFS is NOT a lock down defender, just generally solid. He is a great chemistry guy who does a ton of little things (like offensive rebounding at an elite level), plays with effort and fight, and has become a great shooter.

[ItsGoTime]

DFS is NOT a lock down defender, just generally solid. He is a great chemistry guy who does a ton of little things (like offensive rebounding at an elite level), plays with effort and fight, and has become a great shooter.

I don’t know that this is true for the last bit. His defense may not be sustainable, but I think at the end of the season to now, he’s been that for us. I guess lock down isn’t exactly the word for it, but he has been to our defense what Luka is to our offense.

[KillerLeft]

Outside of Tony Allen, Gary Payton and a few others, I'm not sure "lock down" defenders actually exist all that often in nature. DFS is one of the better, more versatile defenders in the league, imho, based solely on the ideas that he has the physical tools to affect change on the defensive end, and more importantly, he KNOWS AND ACCEPTS that his way onto the floor is as a defender. That's more than half the battle, based on my lifetime of following this sport.

[ItsGoTime]

I'm not sure "lock down" defenders actually exist all that often in nature.

Tried to find a Will Farrell (Robert Goulet) gif to no avail. I’ll just say “NATURE, Goulet”!

[DanSchwartzgan]

My issue with the team construction is mostly centered around KP (and to a much less extent JR). I think the Mavs could have much better fitting players or player with the money they spend on KP and JR. 

But KP and JR need to go, truly "addition by subtraction" in many ways for those two IMO.

Just focusing on JR as both he and possibly the team have decisions to make.

Do you give any shade for his early season struggles being no fault of his own?  No training camp.  New team.  COVID.  He’s a net positive post all-star shooting .370 from three.  All that included a pretty rough month of April (surrounded by good months in March and May).  I don’t have time for a deeper dive, but would be interested in lineup data starting around 3/1/21.

If you assume THJ returns, then major cap room is off the table (again, I’m purposely holding KP as a constant as there are too many variables if you don’t).  The Matrix looks like this:

JRich Opt-in/Stays:   MLE
JRich Opt-in/Trade:   Return for JRich + MLE

JRich Opt-out:          Cap Room + RMLE (cap room is limited with recent play of THJ)
JRich Opt-out/S&T:   Return for JRich + RMLE

1. What can you get in trade for JRich?
2. Who is more valuable than JRich among the MLE candidates? 

Not defending or throwing JRich under the bus.  I’m not positive we know enough.  One other factor is Green.  I’m a Green optimist and if JRich is destined to be the backup defender to DFS, I wonder if Green can fill that limited role next season.  I’ve proposed JRich to Chicago for S&T Markkanen (who I see as a Melli replacement...O off the bench guy).  Then you get a veteran ball handler with the MLE.  Dragic has been suggested.  I don’t want to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands and want more of a 2/1 than a 1/2.  There is a fairly good list of guys out there who can take that role for up to about $9.5mm.

[KillerLeft]

Not defending or throwing JRich under the bus.  I’m not positive we know enough.  One other factor is Green.  I’m a Green optimist and if JRich is destined to be the backup defender to DFS, I wonder if Green can fill that limited role next season.  I’ve proposed JRich to Chicago for S&T Markkanen (who I see as a Melli replacement...O off the bench guy).  Then you get a veteran ball handler with the MLE.  Dragic has been suggested.  I don’t want to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands and want more of a 2/1 than a 1/2.  There is a fairly good list of guys out there who can take that role for up to about $9.5mm.

Good stuff. 

Personally, IF Richardson is cool with coming off the bench during the regular season AND with a reduced role in the ultimate 8-man playoff rotation, basically like he's being used now, I feel better about him being here, especially at or near his current salary, which I think is likely. 

But, I also agree that Josh Green is a viable alternative in that role, probably as soon as next season. If I'm Green, I'm looking at Richardson's job and salivating.

[khaled1987]

Good stuff. 

Personally, IF Richardson is cool with coming off the bench during the regular season AND with a reduced role in the ultimate 8-man playoff rotation, basically like he's being used now, I feel better about him being here, especially at or near his current salary, which I think is likely. 

But, I also agree that Josh Green is a viable alternative in that role, probably as soon as next season. If I'm Green, I'm looking at Richardson's job and salivating.

Honestly,  I think Mavs has mor faith in our current rookies going forward than our own fans.
Not expecting all 4 to continue, but won't be surprised if Green + someone else will be rotation player next year, getting consistent minutes. 
Would expect one of them to be let go, and one continueing to be in the development process.

[KillerLeft]

Not expecting all 4 to continue, but won't be surprised if Green + someone else will be rotation player next year, getting consistent minutes. 
Would expect one of them to be let go, and one continueing to be in the development process.

I think part of the problem fans have with their understanding of Carlisle is that understanding of "rotation player, getting consistent minutes" differs greatly from person to person. 

It seems clear to me that Carlisle takes the mission of developing a playoff rotation very seriously. There are coaches who take it even more seriously, but those guys run their top 7-9 into the ground over the course of a season. Then, there are guys who play so loose with their rotations during the season that they literally don't have a clear idea of who their top 8 players are and how it's best to attack the other team come playoff time. I actually think that's a MAJOR issue with the Clippers right now. Lue literally doesn't know which strings to pull right now - they're experimenting out there with lineups, while Carlisle has an idea of what to expect from each and every rotation tweak he makes, mostly because he has experimented so much during the season. He isn't ONLY trying to win games all season - he's TEACHING. 

All of that to say that if the hurdle Green has to clear next year is the role Richardson has played during these first two playoff games, then yeah, I think that's possible.

[fifteenth]

He isn't ONLY trying to win games all season - he's TEACHING. 

...and gathering data.


You already implied this, just adding the idea to this concluding sentence for emphAsis.

[Kammrath]

He’s a net positive post all-star shooting .370 from three.  All that included a pretty rough month of April (surrounded by good months in March and May).  I don’t have time for a deeper dive, but would be interested in lineup data starting around 3/1/21.

JR is -8.0 on/off post All-Star. He is -7.5 on/off since 3/1/21. He has had NO significant stretch of being a positive for this team and has been the absolute caboose in on/off for basically the entire season.

[KillerLeft]

JR is -8.0 on/off post All-Star. He is -7.5 on/off since 3/1/21. He has had NO significant stretch of being a positive for this team and has been the absolute caboose in on/off for basically the entire season.

I'm with you, as you know, but have you completely given up on the idea that he could be a positive next season, given that he plays a drastically reduced role?

[fifteenth]

DanSchwartzgan Wrote: He’s a net positive post all-star shooting .370 from three.  All that included a pretty rough month of April (surrounded by good months in March and May).  I don’t have time for a deeper dive, but would be interested in lineup data starting around 3/1/21.

JR is -8.0 on/off post All-Star. He is -7.5 on/off since 3/1/21. He has had NO significant stretch of being a positive for this team and has been the absolute caboose in on/off for basically the entire season.