10 game segment at 60/new playoff run projections

[Lucky Luciano]

We're currently winning at a 70% win percentage. That is excellent for such a young team with so many threats out there.

We should win our next 3 games as well. Only game that should be tough should be today against Kat and his Gawd mode he's been playing in Timberwolves

Sac and another NO game following should be no less than a 2-1 outcome though I feel pretty confident we can take all 3 games. It's the NBA though so nothing is guaranteed

[Reunion Mav Old]

https://www.nba.com/article/2019/12/04/b...tment#Top5

Thanks Clutch for the interesting article as always. The Mavs and Luka got a couple of nice mentions. Even I, as positive as I sometimes get with my Mavs, don't think we have earned top 5 team in the league status yet. 

But, I will absolutely not rule it out as the season goes on or for the end of the playoffs. The Western Conference finals appearance would be awesome and at this point, that cannot be ruled out. I would love to see that much continued improvement!

The third 10 game stretch begins in 26 minutes!

[Reunion Mav Old]

Update at 30: We are 20 and 10, still two games above the 48 win pace thru 80 games. We were 6-4 thru this tough stretch of games, complete with 4 games of Luka being out. It has been fun to watch. We learned our guys can indeed win without Luka. We have seen the confidence grow in several of our guys. We have also been subjected to severe tests of our weak areas (ahem....finishing games).  We have had a terrible loss in all three of the 10 games sets. But, our winning percentage remains right on track due to some truly good wins against very good teams in each of the 10 game sets as well. 

As I stated at the beginning, I learned from the 80's Mavs and the Dirk lead Mavs that good teams stay pretty consistent on the 10 game sets throughout the year no matter how tough the schedule or what injuries happen. This team just did that. That increases my belief in this team dramatically. I feel better now than I did 10 games ago because they passed some tough tests. 

What say you Mavs fans?

[Reunion Mav Old]

Let’s look at the 4th 10 game set. I know we start with GS and LAL on a back to back this weekend. We need to beat GS to show in yet another way that we are not the Rockets. Who has the other 8 games handy?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Let’s look at the 4th 10 game set. I know we start with GS and LAL on a back to back this weekend. We need to beat GS to show in yet another way that we are not the Rockets. Who has the other 8 games handy?

@ GSW
@ LAL (B2B)
@ OKC
vs BKN
vs Charlotte
vs Chi
vs DEN
vs LAL
vs Phil (B2B)
@ GSW (40th game)

@ SAC (B2B)
vs POR (mid-season)

There is a "beasts of the west" stretch in late January, then opponent strength is pretty weak for February and the first half of March.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Thanks Dan for your contribution as always. Just based on teams ahead and behind us in the standings, we should be favored 6 times. The good teams in the standings have a number of 7-3 records. I think that would be a good performance by us this next 10 with a 1-0 start so far. I thought 6-4 this past 10 was an excellent performance.

I see the Lakers also played last night. They won breaking a 4 game losing streak. Lebron played but is day to day with a groin injury. I hope we don't regress to the mean from our extremely hot shooting last night. 

As for developmental progress, the third 10 games was the best so far. Having to play without Luka was very good for a number of our players. THJ is becoming pretty consistent at being our 3rd scorer who sometimes is one of the top 2 scorers. The whole team is shooting very well as a team but I think THJ is the most consistent jump shot maker. 

Another improvement, everyone is running the offense well for the most part. THJ is still a little susceptible to playing hero ball but he isn't falling into that a lot. Our starters number 3,4,5: THJ, DFS and Powell/Kleber have all progressed nicely in their starting roles. Though Kleber does not always start, I see him and Powell as roughly equal but different so Rick seems to play them with about equal value depending on the situation. Playing them together at key times is also a good thing. DSF has been shockingly good as the glue guy starter/3 and D player.

All in all, this team is really settling into their roles. The offense borders on awesome much of the time. Our depth and our bench mob (not entirely the same thing) are real strengths for this team. Our ability to defend one on one remains a weakness. We have blown a few and experienced some painful lessons....but these guys are learning. Closing games is tough in the NBA and we are clearly not there yet. On the other hand, we have closed several really good wins.

Team development wise, I give this team an A so far. I am a patient grader though I am also a tough, fair grader. Right now, it is time for patience and happiness to the extreme about the progress of our beloved Mavs.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Forty games are in the books. Four segments are complete. We are on pace to have 50 wins after game 80 with two to go. Those last two games are very often different with one or both teams resting or tanking or trying out very young guys. The halfway mark will be reached tonight.

This segment was a survival like 5-5. We still have managed to avoid any 3 game losing streaks, one of only 4 teams to do so. We have been blown out only about twice this season that I can remember. That is the kind of consistency that the coaches who use 10 game segments are all about. It is not about easy stretches or home games, back to back games or injuries or anything else. It is about showing up every night and playing with consistency and expecting to win no matter what.

We have done an amazingly good job of that and I give the Mavs an A for that!

Now, other teams are succeeding at finding our weaknesses which is of course inevitable. They will do a great job of that in the playoffs. We have earned much respect so teams are really playing us with top effort and respect. That is so, so good because it is an advancing stage of team development. Development is painful complete with gut punches as we have seen this last segment, but it is required to get to the stage in our team development where we can beat good teams in the playoffs. 

Page 13 of the Mavericks news thread has some great discussion on halfway Maverick team progress. Much good news and discussion there. The Mavs success this season has dropped into a grade of B right now but I foresee our great BB students bringing that up by season end.

[ClutchDirk]

@"Reunion Mav"

Thank you for keeping this thread updated...also your newest post has a lot of good points in it...I for one am enjoying the season and progress so far...this stretch without having both Luka and KP playing at the same time has not been a terrible disaster either...

[omahen]

@"Reunion Mav"

Thank you for keeping this thread updated...also your newest post has a lot of good points in it...I for one am enjoying the season and progress so far...this stretch without having both Luka and KP playing at the same time has not been a terrible disaster either...

I think the good start really gave a lot of confidence to our guys. This is why we can see several of them performing above expectations, having carreer shooting percentages and similar. Even with Luka or KP out, as you pointed, the team is still good. KP less team is more or less last season team yet last season we were bottom third, this season we are top third. But, let's hope they can get healthy soon and get to a nice win streak to boost the confidence bar

[ClutchDirk]

@"Reunion Mav"

Thank you for keeping this thread updated...also your newest post has a lot of good points in it...I for one am enjoying the season and progress so far...this stretch without having both Luka and KP playing at the same time has not been a terrible disaster either...

I think the good start really gave a lot of confidence to our guys. This is why we can see several of them performing above expectations, having carreer shooting percentages and similar. Even with Luka or KP out, as you pointed, the team is still good. KP less team is more or less last season team yet last season we were bottom third, this season we are top third. But, let's hope they can get healthy soon and get to a nice win streak to boost the confidence bar

And we don't have to see the article referenced in the tweet below in the local news...

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1217475374499520513

[Reunion Mav Old]

And we don't have to see the article referenced in the tweet below in the local news...

Oh my goodness yes. We do not want to see this though we have done that before with Karl Malone to Donovan Mitchell. 


Thanks Clutch Dirk, for your kind words. Omahen, lets get another one of those 8-2 spurts to begin the 2nd half beginning tonight by keeping the Kings at bay.

[chaparral]

We do not want to see this though we have done that before with Karl Malone. 

I agree we should of taken Malone in 85 over Schrempf.  But not sure we would of taken Malone in 85 if the first five years all turned out different.  Let's say Kiki in 80 and Isiah in 81 wanted to be Mavs.  Then in 82 we drafted LaSalle Thompson, in 83 Clyde Drexler and in 84 Charles Barkley.

If we would of taken Mitchell over Smith, would we have made the trade with NYK for Porzingis?

Sorry for past history what if's in this next 10 game segment.  I would like to say 10 wins over the losses as the season goes on - but feel we can do a lot better then 5 and 5 over the next 10 games.  I also hope we use the TPE and trade Lee in the next 10 game span as well.

[Reunion Mav Old]

I have no problem with Maverick history. It is true that 20/20 hindsight is never really accurate because of all sorts of factors like you mentioned. As well, I am always fine with asset acquisition. Even the Kings broadcasters last night mentioned Lee's expiring contract trade value when he came into the game.

[ClutchDirk]

https://www.nba.com/reportcard/midseason/2020/west

[Reunion Mav Old]

50 games are in the books and we remain one game ahead of a 6-4 pace by going 6-4 the past 10 games. This win tonight against Indiana with KP looking so good offensively was perhaps the best win in this 10 game set. The Phoenix game keeps our pattern of 1 bad loss every 10 games going as well. But.....we have more great wins than we do bad losses. That is just another way to measure consistency. The fact our worst 10 game record is 5-5 is another way to say we are doing well consistently often. The fact Phoenix was one of our very few  blow out losses is yet another sign of a consistent team that competes every night. 

Now, I agree with some that say every loss to Houston should be considered a bad loss. But we played well so I was mad at Houston, not us.

[Lucky Luciano]

Looks like we're still on pace to crack 51 wins this year. If we can stay healthy the rest of the way and grow a little bit we might be able to push that up to 55.

Wouldn't that be on helluva turn around year!

Toss in a first round playoff win and a second round upset win and I'll be ecstatic!

Ad much as I'd love to win it all and think it is definitely possible to get real hot at the right time and do something special I am definitely not expecting us to get to the WCF or the NBA Finals. Not out of our possibility though, just unlikely. Super excited regardless!

[Reunion Mav Old]

After a tough start to this 10 game set, we need to win tomorrow against Miami for another 6-4 set. Win or lose, we will have gotten thru the first 60 games with the 60% win percentage that I hoped for at the beginning of the season. We have indeed been consistent at getting wins without losing streaks reaching even a third loss in a row. That is great. The 2nd 10 game set at 8-2 really got us in position and we have held on thru the ups and downs.

Now, comes the great part. The post all star break playoff run. We are 3-1. Good start. I really love that we get this experience. We are almost certainly in the playoffs so now we get to attempt the strong close for playoff seed. This is going to be great. We are so fortunate to be in the playoff race again!

I would like to request one of our great posters, perhaps a newer one, take on the task of a playoff seed tracking thread. My work demands keep me from being able to be that consistent, though I would certainly contribute comments when I can. For example, looking at the standings last night, it is clearly not out of the question for us to get into the 4-5 seed range. I would love to see us pull off something like 16-7 the rest of the way and see what happens. Development of the team is superb but right now I think the way to develop this team is to go all out to win down the closing stretch.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well shoot. The record is now 36-24. We close the 6th segment at 5-5. 

This was a pretty darn good playoff run game...but we lost. I still enjoyed it and didn't even get that mad. Jimmy Butler said on the League Pass telecast that he felt his team played really well. The Mavs played well enough to challenge a very good and desperate team who was playing nearly perfectly from what I saw. 

Anyway, I digress. We have stayed on the good 60% pace for the year. Now I will ask for a good close to go with the good start. My hope is to finish 50-32. I would love to make that easy by going 8-2 this next 10 games. That would put some pressure on the current 4,5,6 seeds. I want any of those seeds because I think for the development of this team, we need to establish ourselves as a team who will close the season well. It is pretty clear, Rick believes this as well because he has tightened the lineups.

[fifteenth]

I don't want to be sudden negativity guy, but man, the way the Mavs have played since the break, the current disaster that is the bench, overall health of the team and a peak at the last 22 opponents makes me think we'll go 11-11 to finish the season.

[Mavs2019]

I don't want to be sudden negativity guy, but man, the way the Mavs have played since the break, the current disaster that is the bench, overall health of the team and a peak at the last 22 opponents makes me think we'll go 11-11 to finish the season.

Which would be 47 wins and more than anybody could have expected before the season started.


Luka became a superstar.

KP looks like his old self, on-court production-wise. They hopefully learned their lesson, in terms of rest and load management.

DFS, Kleber and Curry became instant value contracts.

Brunson is good.

We still have our 1st round pick, plus  the 31st pick.

Mavs don´t have to brag about the dumb sh*t they didn´t do, because they actually did some good things.

And the dumb things they did were of the minor variety (Wright S&T, Boban and Powell extension).

Finally all we need is a 7 game 1st round series or a 2nd round appearance, cause the time from the end of the regular season to the draft is stupid long without the play-offs.