10 game segment at 60/new playoff run projections

[Reunion Mav Old]

To make the playoffs, we would really benefit from a quick start. The West will be too tough to fall say 4 games under 500 early and try to get to 48 wins from there. Many say it will take us time to get everything together. That may well be true. But... a slow start will do grave damage to our fairly unrealistic chance of making the playoffs.

However, if you measure our chances by how big an opportunity so many of our players have to really dramatically improve their status in the league, I believe there is hope for enough of our guys to surprise early, which could result is say a 12-8 start for the first 20 games. 

It does not matter who we play because every 10 game stretch this year will include plenty of difficult teams. We will have to consistently hold our own  against the majority of teams to get to 48 wins. I and others think 48 is what it will take to qualify. That is plus 14 so getting to plus 4 in the first 20 is essential. Another way to track this is that our last 10 game record will need to be about 6-4 all season long with no big losing streaks. Any losing streaks will require somewhat bigger winning streaks to compensate. 

As I watch eagerly for so many things about this team, always looking for progress, I will be hoping that this team can rise up and surprise. The pace toward 48 will be my measuring stick.

[Hypermav]

Playoffthon is much better than a Tankathon.

[reckoner07]

I dont see Luka and KP losing. Ever.

[Thukydides]

Another way to track this is that our last 10 game record will need to be about 6-4 all season long with no big losing streaks

That's an interesting point of view. And honestly quite discouraging. After this disappointing preseason I have a hard time seeing that as realistic. Sorry, but that's my take.

[Luka_Magic]

Portland is going to a big early test for the team. Would like to see the Mavs put forward some strong perimeter defense against Lillard and McCollum behind Delon because if we let them shoot the lights out against us the way they did last night it's an ominous sign for the rest of the season. I think we'll probably be sitting around 5-5 ten games in.

[iolide]

I expect the Mavs to be better than the Pelicans, the Kings, and the T-Pups. 

I think we edge out San Antonio and their aging starters.

[vfromlmf]

Early schedule is relatively easy. 

I have them 12-8 after 20 games; and basically .500 the rest of the way, finishing 43-39

Things could skew either way though. If they're below .500 and fading after the ASB I expect another organic tank. If they're still above .500 and playing well I could see them falling just short of the last playoff spot. 

They'll win at least 38 ....but they're unlikely to win more than 45.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Good teams get off to slow starts every year. Houston did last year. Someone will this year.

[audiosway]

I expect the Mavs to be better than the Pelicans, the Kings, and the T-Pups. 

I think we edge out San Antonio and their aging starters.

I agree with all of this. I think this is the year that SA starts the decline.

[dirkfansince1998]

I expect the Mavs to be better than the Pelicans, the Kings, and the T-Pups. 

I think we edge out San Antonio and their aging starters.

I agree with all of this. I think this is the year that SA starts the decline.

Feels like we predict the downfall of San Antonio every year. After TD retired. When Kawhi left. They still have some solid players and even if they get worse I don´t expect them to fall of the cliff. Just like the Mavs they have two "stars" and a deep roster. Mavs big advantage is that their stars are young but that obviously isn´t a big advantage this season. Spurs big advantage is durability. Aldridge and DeRozan rarely miss games.
I like their guard rotation. Murray is similar to Wright but younger. Mills, Belinelli and White are great shooters. Gay and Carroll solid veteran wings.
With Pop on the bench I expect them to have a solid defense even though they really lack athleticism.

The Pelicans looked really good in preseason but with Zions injury problems they might be in trouble. Nevertheless the Ball / Holiday backcourt already showed that they are as good as it gets on defense.

Kings are solid as well but I have them clearly behind the Mavs. Current news indicate some trouble with contract extensions and the salary hierarchy. Will be interesting to see how good the younger Bogdanovic is after a great summer (top scorer of the FIBA world cup).

I am not high on the Wolves at all. Towns is still a liability on defense. Wiggins is what THJ used to be. Time to start my free RoCo campaign again. Best 3&D wing of the league wasted on a terrible team.

The really sad part is that all of those teams would easily make the playoffs in the east.

[Reunion Mav Old]

We have completed the 2nd 10 game set. We are at 14 and 6. That puts us +2 on the consistent 6-4 per 10 game set that would lead to 48 wins. My, how things have changed compared to our discussion as the season started!

The 2nd 10 games started with the loss to New York. Since, we have beaten everyone but the Clippers with great wins over Houston and the Lakers. I pronounce myself "ecstatic". 

Though I saw San Antonio has shown recent signs of life and beat Houston tonight, they are among the surprising teams that are off to slow starts. I would include them, Portland, Utah, New Orleans as pre-season playoff contenders that many if not most thought might be ahead of us at this point. Their slow starts definitely helps us. Our high level of play really helps us. Luka shocking the world simply makes life good for Maverick fans. Maybe the biggest change of all is every where you look or listen, people are talking very positively about our Mavs!

I give the first 2 10 game sets a big thumbs up. On to the next 10. December will get tougher, but not as tough as we thought it would be in late October.

[Mavsfan12]

Before the season, I compared this Mavs team to the coming of age of the early Fin/Dirk/Nash mavs of the early 2000's.  I couldn't decide if this team was going to be the 99-00 team that was around .500 and gave us a glimpse of what was to come as they started to gel, or if it was going to be the 00-01 team where the promise blossomed into a first time playoff team that upset the Jazz and planted their flag as a perennial contender.

20 games in, we have certainly exceeded expectations and looking like we are going to be a team no one will want to play.  Good times, Mavs.

[fifteenth]

Fun to see how the Mavs are doing compared to our early expectations

[LukTheShadow]

Fun to see how the Mavs are doing compared to our early expectations

Agree. I nobody was fired ...

[vfromlmf]

They'll win at least 38 ....but they're unlikely to win more than 45.

They'll win at least 50

[dirkfansince1998]

Was wrong about the Spurs. Aldridge, Carroll, Gay, Bellinelli and Mills hit the age and injury wall. Reminds me of the 16/17 Mavs team. On paper they did not look bad but once the season started half of the roster looked ready to retire.
Mavs are better than I ever dared to imagine. Maybe the tank years have made me more cautious because I still cannot believe that they are on pace for a 57 win season right now. The schedule is getting harder but if they finish the eastern road trip with at least 2 wins I am ready to predict the WCF.
Right now I don´t see any western team outside of the Clippers beating the Mavs in a 7 game series.

[Jommybone]

Love the thread bump! Fun to reread those early takes! (Add to them me saying how much THJ sucks. ?)

Here’s what excites me about the season thus far:

Against the 7 teams ranked ahead of your #8 Mavericks in this week's ESPN power rankings (not the same without Stein, but still a decent ranking), Dallas is 4-3, with a +5 margin despite playing 4 of the 7 on the road. Those games in order,

W @ Denver +3
L vs Lakers -9 (in OT)
L @ Boston -10
W vs Toronto +8
W @ Houston +14
L vs Clippers -15
W @ Lakers +14
Total 4-3 +5

[fifteenth]

Right now I don´t see any western team outside of the Clippers beating the Mavs in a 7 game series.

I'm full of hope for this team, but...

Winning more than one playoff series is a tough thing to do for a team in it's first playoff run.

[windjc]

Love the thread bump! Fun to reread those early takes! (Add to them me saying how much THJ sucks. ?)

Here’s what excites me about the season thus far:

Against the 7 teams ranked ahead of your #8 Mavericks in this week's ESPN power rankings (not the same without Stein, but still a decent ranking), Dallas is 4-3, with a +5 margin despite playing 4 of the 7 on the road. Those games in order,

W @ Denver +3
L vs Lakers -9 (in OT)
L @ Boston -10
W vs Toronto +8
W @ Houston +14
L vs Clippers -15
W @ Lakers +14
Total 4-3 +5

Toronto and Houston are not better than Dallas. Lakers, its real close - Lebrons experience is priceless. The Clippers match up well against Dallas. The Bucks - well we dont know - we will see. Boston is a solid squad.  I don't think Denver would beat Dallas in a 7 game series.

[ClutchDirk]

https://www.nba.com/article/2019/12/04/b...tment#Top5