10 game segment at 60/new playoff run projections

[fifteenth]

I like the world where @"Mavs2019" stops by my post to encourage me with the positives!

[Reunion Mav Old]

Here is the last 22 game schedule. Check that, the post all star game schedule as you will here that on seemingly every broadcast during what I am calling our Playoff Run. At this writing we are 3-2 PASB (post all star break).  Also at this time we are 36-24 as we play Minnesota. I earlier "hoped" for a 15-7 close to the last 22 games which would translate to 18-8 PASB, a 69% winning percentage: a little better than we have done this year and significantly better than the 50% the last 20 games. 

This is a playoff run. It should be so fun and so good for this teams growth, experience and hopefully confidence going into the playoffs. I plan to edit and update the scores though probably not every game as I am more into watching than posting. + or - is my projected probability of a win of over/under 50%. We should win some - projection games but we will lose some + games.

2/21 @Magic             Win 122-106
2/22 @Hawks            Loss 107-111
2/24 Timberwolves     Win 139-123
2/26 Hated Spurs       Win 109-103

2/28 Hated Heat        Loss 118-126
3/01 @Timberwolves  +  Win 111-91
3/02 @ Bulls              +  Loss 107-109
3/04 Pelicans             +  Win 127-123
3/06 Grizzlies             +  Win 123-96
3/08 Pacers               -   Loss 109-112
3/10 @Spurs             +  Loss 109-119
3/11 Nuggets            -   Win              Season suspended. PASG record 7-5. Two plus game losses, one minus game win to close it out for awhile. 
3/14 Suns                 +
3/16 @Clippers          -
3/17 @Kings              -
3/19 @Trailblazers     +
3/21 @Suns              -
3/23 hated Rockets    +
3/26 Utah Jazz          +
3/29 Bucks                -
4/01 @Tpups            +
4/03 @Grizzlies         -
4/05 @Nets              +
4/07 hated Rockets    -
4/11 Pistons             +
4/13 @Nuggets         -

Projected records: 49-23; 15-11 PASB (less than 18-8 I hope for but still 58% and consistent with 60% so far. Projections are also for a pair of 6-4 records over 10 game segments 7 and 8. We shall see as I start watching from behind the Tpups where we lead 63-44 at half!

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Now that I post this...I really want to see us step up and beat the heck out of the projections which tend to equal the first half of the season status quo...pre-injury. To move up to 5th, we will have to be at least 52 wins, not 49. 

I no longer think we can catch the Rockets. They are playing really well right now. They get away with small ball because at the 1-2-3 and maybe 4 positions, they are actually very physical and PJ Tucker, the only Rocket I respect, is very very strong at the 5. He is the new 3 and D at the 5 position. I have seen them 3 times. They are impressive...for now. I still hate them even while giving them a wee bit of respect.

[Lucky Luciano]

Here is the last 22 game schedule. Check that, the post all star game schedule as you will here that on seemingly every broadcast during what I am calling our Playoff Run. At this writing we are 3-2 PASB (post all star break).  Also at this time we are 36-24 as we play Minnesota. I earlier "hoped" for a 15-7 close to the last 22 games which would translate to 18-8 PASB, a 69% winning percentage: a little better than we have done this year and significantly better than the 50% the last 20 games. 

This is a playoff run. It should be so fun and so good for this teams growth, experience and hopefully confidence going into the playoffs. I plan to edit and update the scores though probably not every game as I am more into watching than posting. + or - is my projected probability of a win of over/under 50%. We should win some - projection games but we will lose some + games.

2/21 @Magic             Win 122-106
2/22 @Hawks            Loss 107-111
2/24 Timberwolves     Win 139-123
2/26 Hated Spurs       Win 109-103

2/28 Hated Heat        Loss 118-126
3/01 @Timberwolves  +
3/02 @ Bulls              +
3/04 Pelicans             +
3/06 Grizzlies             +
3/08 Pacers               -
3/10 @Spurs             +
3/11 Nuggets            -
3/14 Suns                 +
3/16 @Clippers          -
3/17 @Kings              -
3/19 @Trailblazers     +
3/21 @Suns              -
3/23 hated Rockets    +
3/26 Utah Jazz          +
3/29 Bucks                -
4/01 @Tpups            +
4/03 @Grizzlies         -
4/05 @Nets              +
4/07 hated Rockets    -
4/11 Pistons             +
4/13 @Nuggets         -

Projected records: 49-23; 15-11 PASB (less than 18-8 I hope for but still 58% and consistent with 60% so far. Projections are also for a pair of 6-4 records over 10 game segments 7 and 8. We shall see as I start watching from behind the Tpups where we lead 63-44 at half!

---

Now that I post this...I really want to see us step up and beat the heck out of the projections which tend to equal the first half of the season status quo...pre-injury. To move up to 5th, we will have to be at least 52 wins, not 49. 

I no longer think we can catch the Rockets. They are playing really well right now. They get away with small ball because at the 1-2-3 and maybe 4 positions, they are actually very physical and PJ Tucker, the only Rocket I respect, is very very strong at the 5. He is the new 3 and D at the 5 position. I have seen them 3 times. They are impressive...for now. I still hate them even while giving them a wee bit of respect.

I can see us pulling off 52 wins. Didn't feel too biased when I went through it. I could see us going as low as 48 as well. That would put us at a 50 win if I took the median average but I wouldn't be too afraid to put my money on a 52 ender if we do not tank any games on purpose for rest or playoff match up strategy.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well a loss to the Bulls without our top two scorers from the night before is a big painful loss. We are now 4-3 since the All-Star break. That is a recipe for the 7th seed. 

Next: The Pelicans and our first chance to see if any of our bigs can slow down Zion though it is most important we get a win. A three game home win streak would sure be nice. Hopefully, everyone can play.

[Lucky Luciano]

Yeah that Bull's loss was absolutely a must win winable game. Glad we didn't let the Pels get that Dub last night or I would have been a little worried about my prediction lol.

[bartlettbear]

3 out in loss column behind Houston to get 4th seed, Mavs could ago 14-5 in they play well, the two games against Houston are must wins , I think is doable if they actually try and do it.

Though 6 seed against Denver is not the worse spot.

[Reunion Mav Old]

We are now 6-3 PASB. We are getting better at home. KP is playing like the Max player we have been waiting for. KP and Luka are rapidly building chemistry. We have successfully fended off the teams from behind this past week. The New Orleans game was a particularly good playoff run type of win. This is pretty good so far. 

I agree bartlettbear that Houston is a great target. I think we are well prepared to defend their small ball though honestly I have been impressed with how they have played. Not happy but impressed. We will see how they handle KP. I suspect they can't do it and Luka has played some of his best games against them. 

The Clippers may have showed us how to play this new Houston team. The Lakers last night found a scheme that worked against Antetokoumpo (sp?). I see some valuable film sessions in our teams future. 

Wasn't it great that Skin's interview with Courtney Lee after the game last night showed Coach God Shamgod with Lee and lee praising him. We loved it when he came here and apparently, he is still doing some great work behind the scenes. 

I love how this team continues to have guys come out of the ashes and rise up. Last night it was Lee and Justin Jackson. That I attribute to GREAT team chemistry. That was evident when they got together to work out before the season and it continues to be evident. That is also evident in the very numerous ways this team has been getting better at weaknesses all season long. Several improvements really showed in the New Orleans game. As well, we have played superbly when guys have been out all season long. If we get healthy....well it could get very exciting around here. 

Let's get a win against Indiana to get to 7-3 PASB then beat the Spurs Tuesday on National TV to sweep them and start an 8-2 or 9-1 stretch. That would help us close on some teams.

[Reunion Mav Old]

3 out in loss column behind Houston to get 4th seed, Mavs could ago 14-5 in they play well, the two games against Houston are must wins , I think is doable if they actually try and do it. 

  Though 6 seed against Denver is not the worse spot.

Make that 2 in the loss column behind Houston after they lost to Charlotte. We are only 1 loss behind OKC.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Tough loss to Indiana and to make matters worse, OKC pulls one out against Boston. I watched the local news about how awful small ball is working for Houston after their 4th loss in a row. 

I enjoyed that!

I love us being in the playoff stretch. I think I had forgotten how tough it is to watch these games. This is the 3rd game in a row that the opposing team appeared to play extremely desperate and well and had many things go their way. We won two of them so I guess this is good... but it is hard and painful.

Playoff losses are way harder, but I look forward to handling those in exchange for more playoff wins!

PS. These frustrating errors we make, are indeed necessary for progress. We are getting better...but this is still painful and necessary and mostly good.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...7588685827

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https://twitter.com/nbastats/status/1237382374217973760

[StepBackJay]

People buried OKC way too soon. They were labeled as rebuilding despite having a really good roster with veteran players. The only real sell-off was Grant for a pick. OKC has a huge war-chest of assets. I did not expect CP3 to play as well as he has.

[omahen]

People buried OKC way too soon. They were labeled as rebuilding despite having a really good roster with veteran players. The only real sell-off was Grant for a pick. OKC has a huge war-chest of assets. I did not expect CP3 to play as well as he has.

Biggest win for them will be in the summer when they sell CP3 to some desperate idiots for a good player and a pick. New York comes to mind

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well, we might now just end up 7th. I would prefer to finish the season as we have so little chance of falling to 8th and a descent chance of climbing the playoff ladder. 

We are 7-5 Post All-Star break which is consistent with the 6-4 Ten Game sets we have averaged for the year. Among the best parts, a couple of good wins late where we closed out games. We continue to show development improvement. Because of injuries, a few guys had their arrows turn around to ^ late in the season (Boban, Delon Wright, and to some degree even Justin Jackson, Willie Cauley Stein and perhaps others.) Opportunity to be ready worked out for some of the guys and that is a positive. All of the injuries, especially to Seth and Brunson, really hurt us. 

If we do play the rest of the season or if it is just the playoffs, it will be nice to be healthy and become a team with both depth and situational options off the bench.

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well, we might now just end up 7th. I would prefer to finish the season as we have so little chance of falling to 8th and a descent chance of climbing the playoff ladder. 

We are 7-5 Post All-Star break which is consistent with the 6-4 Ten Game sets we have averaged for the year. Among the best parts, a couple of good wins late where we closed out games. We continue to show development improvement. Because of injuries, a few guys had their arrows turn around to ^ late in the season (Boban, Delon Wright, and to some degree even Justin Jackson, Willie Cauley Stein and perhaps others.) Opportunity to be ready worked out for some of the guys and that is a positive. All of the injuries, especially to Seth and Brunson, really hurt us. 

If we do play the rest of the season or if it is just the playoffs, it will be nice to be healthy and become a team with both depth and situational options off the bench.

Training camp starts tomorrow. The 60% win percentage we have been consistent with all year suggests we win 4.8 of the 8 games. Let's round that to 5-3 which would result in 45-30 for the year, 62%. We all know win percentage will determine the seeds. 

The way this stands, there will be no direct ties with 8 games, a round number remaining. We need to win two more games than either/or the Rockets or the Thunder to pass them. So 5-3 would mean they have to only go 3-5...not that unlikely. Going 6-2 would certainly help. 

Winning that first game will be incredibly important. Closing the gap to only one game, right away would help our Psychology and hurt the Rockets in particular. They are talking about moving up to 3rd seed, which is actually quite unlikely. Losing the first game would damage their hopes and bring them back to a reality more like real reality instead of their .....

I don't think there has ever been a game, immediately after a long lay off where 3 point shooting is so big of a factor. No one is playing in their own building. Our team plays better on the road than all of the 3 teams immediately in front of us. If we get our rhythm first, this play off seeding set of games could work out well for us. 

Let the serious preparation begin.

[fifteenth]

Let's keep up the 62% through the playoffs!!!

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well it is time for the 70 game update. We are 41-29. We went 5-5 over the last 10. We are now one game behind the 60% win pace. We can still achieve that but only by playing the last 5 games in 4-1. That would be 45-30. That would also make our record in the bubble the 5-3 that the season long trend would have predicted. We will see. 

It occurs to me that when we become a good finishing team, we might just win half of those 16 close games we lost. That would make us 49-21.... a 70% win percentage. That would be a 57-58 win team in a full season. That would be a whole lot like the good old days when we regularly accomplished that. Mavs fans, we are not that far away!

[Reunion Mav Old]

I want these two wins bad for another reason. That would be 5-3 in the bubble, what the season averages predicted. That would be 45-30 or exactly 60%. That would equal 49 or 50 wins in a normal season.

These games will probably be very close, so 2 wins would be notable improvement in our end of game dynamic. I just want it. No matter how we do, the ten game records show remarkable consistency for the whole season.

[Hypermav]

I want these two wins bad for another reason. That would be 5-3 in the bubble, what the season averages predicted. That would be 45-30 or exactly 60%. That would equal 49 or 50 wins in a normal season.

These games will probably be very close, so 2 wins would be notable improvement in our end of game dynamic. I just want it. No matter how we do, the ten game records show remarkable consistency for the whole season.

I agree.  I think the Mavs should play to win these two games without regard to the opponents.  Have some fun before the grind of a Clipper series starts.  Not that the playoffs won't be fun, but they will be intense.