Mavs 108, Rockets 133

[burekemde]

Not sure we disagree. I like the all-two-way lineup, and do expect we will see a lot of it. But it doesn't have enough offense for the team to marginalize the shooters. I predict we'll see THJ in closing lineups rather than Rich/DFS in many cases, or maybe a O/D substitution with one of those. Or a lineup with JRich, THJ, DFS/Maxi.

ML, I think for sure that our all-two-way lineup has a chance to break down completely and disassemble, in case JRich, DFS and Maxi shoot bad. It will not work, even with the great defense. Two of them need to at least shoot well, and preferably all 3 should be solid enough not be left alone. We cant accept double teams on Luka and KP, that will work if one of the above dont shoot well enough.

Jrich, Maxi and DFS will have ton of open looks, so much we know with Luka and KP on the team. It really comes down to this, how succesful it will be, and how well Mavs will do. Because defensively, this lineup can and most likely will dominate, much more than any lineup with THJ in it. Without offensive production, it will however break down, and we will see a lot of THJ.

We will/would see quiet some THJ even if works well. I dont think he will even be or should be a marginal player.

Maxi has been amazing shooter this season, I am not worried about him. It comes more down to DFS and Jrich. I think JRich will start shooting great, once he gets in rhytm with Luka. He will get more open shots than ever in his career. He will get it going. I think/hope at least.

EDIT: BTW, I think that the all-two-way-lineup also has the advantage of having Maxi and KP. I think KP is best as roll man, and getting in the pain and with PnR with Luka. Instead of just sitting outside and making 3s. And in this way, Maxi can be that big doing that, stretching. Given how well he shoots, he would do this role very well. I think this would make a great fit. 

Essentially you have JRich, DFS, Maxi stretching, while Luka/KP attack and destroy the paint. All 5 defend well. As you write, it really comes down to how well JRich/DFS/Maxi will shoot. Because they will be open.

[omahen]

Maxi has been amazing shooter this season, I am not worried about him.

You can't compare Maxi and THJ shooting. Maxi has very high percentage, but he has to be completely open. THJ needs much less space and time to shoot it. Thats why THJ is shooting 8 threes per game and Maxi is shooting 3,8. Similar is with DFS. JRich is better. When defense tightens, Mavs will probably need THJ to really spread the floor. There will not be a lot of wide open threes allowed.

[KillerLeft]

You can't compare Maxi and THJ shooting. Maxi has very high percentage, but he has to be completely open. THJ needs much less space and time to shoot it. Thats why THJ is shooting 8 threes per game and Maxi is shooting 3,8. Similar is with DFS. JRich is better. When defense tightens, Mavs will probably need THJ to really spread the floor. There will not be a lot of wide open threes allowed.

[burekemde]

There will not be a lot of wide open threes allowed.

There are quiet a lot of open 3s with Luka running the team. Maxi has been hitting them at a very high rate. He stretches very well, there is no way you leave Maxi open outside, need to have a defender on him all times. Otherwise Luka will always find Maxi.

It is no coincidence what when Jrich/Maxi/DFS went out, that double teaming Luka started, and it started actually working since Green etc can not hit the open 3s. You cant do that with the above 3 shooters in the game. They are good shooters, you just dont leave open. They dont need to be able to score 3s when well defended. Difference of those 3 to THJ, is that they play D. D wins championships.

[mavsluvr]

Essentially you have JRich, DFS, Maxi stretching, while Luka/KP attack and destroy the paint. All 5 defend well. As you write, it really comes down to how well JRich/DFS/Maxi will shoot. Because they will be open.

I definitely see the advantages of that grouping, and think it may well be one of the mainstay lineups of the season. 


I do question whether that lineup can stand up in many cases, particularly at the ends of games. How many times have we seen the Mavs relinquish leads down the stretch because they just can't score? 

Just as Richardson and DFS are better defenders than THJ, THJ is in a different league offensively than they are. They are guys who can catch and shoot when they are open, or even maybe when they have a hand in their face, but spacing-wise they basically serve to draw a defender. 

THJ can do so many things on the offensive end that they can't. He can score from anywhere on the floor, can create his own shots, can make at least simple plays for others, can score off the dribble, can get to the free throw line, hit difficult shots, get a good shot off with little time/space, and score at a high volume in a variety of ways. Even when he isn't personally scoring, he's doing something. And he is not a cypher on defense -- he actually does defend, albeit not as well as the two-ways. They are not plug'n'plays for him. 

Love J Rich and DFS and your lineup. I guess this sounds like I am trying to be an apologist for THJ. I am not disagreeing with anything you say about that group, just think to fill out the picture, it has to be recognized that the major responsibility for scoring for the team is mostly going to stand on the shoulders of Luka, KP, and Tim, because they are the only three who have the skills and size to consistently score at a high volume.  

I think we are probably saying the same thing, but if not, feel free to correct me.

[KillerLeft]

It is no coincidence what when Jrich/Maxi/DFS went out, that double teaming Luka started, and it started actually working since Green etc can not hit the open 3s. You cant do that with the above 3 shooters in the game. They are good shooters, you just dont leave open. They dont need to be able to score 3s when well defended. Difference of those 3 to THJ, is that they play D. D wins championships.

You have a great understanding of the effect a defender who can convert catch and shoot opportunities has on spacing. They don't talk about "3 and D" players all the time in this sport for nothing. 

I humbly suggest that your view on how the offense works might need just a bit more nuance. No matter how good Luka is or eventually becomes, they will always need a guy like THJ, who is MORE than just a floor spacer. I mean, floor spacing is the result of him being out there, yes, but he's a threat, not just someone standing in the corner. He moves off-ball, can get shots off quickly off of pin downs, etc, etc, etc. This is a vitally important ingredient when Carlisle is cooking the stew. 

Is he the 6th best DEFENDER on the team? Maybe, but he's nowhere remotely close to being a "bad defender" in my opinion. Far from it, actually. Michael Porter Jr. is a bad defender. Trae Young is a bad defender. Hell, THJ is a MUCH better defender than Jason Terry was, imo. Better than Nash was, and probably better than Michael Finley was. 

Defense doesn't win championships without offense. It's the sum of everything that matters. Synergy. I believe it's clear that there is nobody on this roster who can provide what THJ does on the offensive end. Burke is probably the closest, but he's not THJ. The Mavs had a chance to part ways with THJ over the summer, but instead opted to move Curry. I think that speaks volumes about how they feel, and even if it doesn't, it certainly marries them to THJ for the immediate future.

[burekemde]

I humbly suggest that your view on how the offense works might need just a bit more nuance. No matter how good Luka is or eventually becomes, they will always need a guy like THJ, who is MORE than just a floor spacer. I mean, floor spacing is the result of him being out there, yes, but he's a threat, not just someone standing in the corner. He moves off-ball, can get shots off quickly off of pin downs, etc, etc, etc. This is a vitally important ingredient when Carlisle is cooking the stew. 

I do totally agree on this. By far the best thing would be to have that guard next to Luka, that can defend as JRich, and same time do the things you mention on offense as THJ does, and even playmake as Brunson. We just don't have that. If we would find a way to clone and merge JRich/THJ/Brunson into one single player, this would be amazing.

I also see a lot of benefits with Brunson as the guard instead of JRich and THJ that even are both on the bench. Even this is a possibility.

It comes down to whether the extra defense they provide (Jrich/DFS) is more important, than that extra offense THJ provides. I think my impression is that the overall effect of the extra defense is more important. And here it is why I think so. It is because when Luka and KP are not doubled, I think they can carry the team offensively well enough, they are that great actually. Even this last game against Houston, we made decent offensive showing. With KP in there, and Luka, and better shooters, even if they dont do more than shoot, we will always have a good offense IMO. I might be wrong however, and THJ might be essential.

Seeing the effect JRich and DFS have on Lukas defense is termendous. THJ is great on offense, but he makes a weak defending team in general, and although I do agree he tries and does play defense, I think his mentality on defense is the actual weak thing, and I think having weak defenders spreads this to the teammates. For instance, Luka the defender in the lineup with DFS, JRich and Maxi, is simply not the same defender when teaming up with THJ. There is synergy here as well. When you have players as jRich and DFS that dont just try to follow the opponent and stay in front (THJ), but actually are hungry to do that extra, to take the ball away, block, steal, it just spreads to others, and then next thing you know is you have Luka doing the same.

This is the part of synergy and mentality of the team.

We only have two new additions, and we go from a bad defense, to a great defense. Its amazing how setting the tone, can make a difference on teammates.

With THJ, there is no defensive tone and mentality if you understand what I mean. He may stay with the opponent, and he does in most cases, but there is no tone, there is no message to teammates that spread in the same way as watching Maxi/DFS/JRich.

Ultimately, I honestly believe that we might win it all, even this season, if we surround Luka/KP with two way players. If we can get some two way players, that can do more than shoot, and also make plays, or create, this would not just make us contenders, but also favourites.

[KillerLeft]

With THJ, there is no defensive tone and mentality if you understand what I mean. He may stay with the opponent, and he does in most cases, but there is no tone, there is no message to teammates that spread in the same way as watching Maxi/DFS/JRich.

I agree with this. He's not the type of defensive LEADER who is so tenacious that he inspires others to play harder on that end. But, though I think Kleber and DFS are both good defenders, and better than Hardaway defensively, I don't know that either of them are that type of leader, either. Not sure about Richardson yet.

[omahen]

There are quiet a lot of open 3s with Luka running the team. Maxi has been hitting them at a very high rate. He stretches very well, there is no way you leave Maxi open outside, need to have a defender on him all times. Otherwise Luka will always find Maxi.

But still opponents are leaving Maxi relatively open. His release is slow so closeout is much easier. As I said, Maxi is shooting less than 4 threes per game. Even at 45 % this is just around 5 points per game from threes.

[mavsluvr]

But still opponents are leaving Maxi relatively open. His release is slow so closeout is much easier. As I said, Maxi is shooting less than 4 threes per game. Even at 45 % this is just around 5 points per game from threes.

This is a good point. Those guys have such slow releases that defenders can often cheat off of them and recover.

[burekemde]

But still opponents are leaving Maxi relatively open. His release is slow so closeout is much easier. As I said, Maxi is shooting less than 4 threes per game. Even at 45 % this is just around 5 points per game from threes.

Luka is finding Maxi almost every time he is open. 45% is really great rate offensively. This is why he is not left more open than he is. I dont have the numbers, but I am convinced he is covered on most plays, especially this season. Luka is almost always finding the open guy. If Maxi was left open for more plays, the defense would give up many more points, and Maxis PPG would be much higher. 

The effect of importance of having Maxi/DFS/Jrich is well documented experimentally now, by their absence. Need to have these guys back, we are nothing without them. Our defense and shooting are both horrible without them.

[mavsluvr]

With THJ, there is no defensive tone and mentality if you understand what I mean. He may stay with the opponent, and he does in most cases, but there is no tone, there is no message to teammates that spread in the same way as watching Maxi/DFS/JRich.

Ultimately, I honestly believe that we might win it all, even this season, if we surround Luka/KP with two way players. If we can get some two way players, that can do more than shoot, and also make plays, or create, this would not just make us contenders, but also favourites

I might have to quibble with these two items. 


I don't get any sense at all that THJ is sending a message that his teammates can be lax defensively. He is out there trying, mostly just doesn't have the size/strength to defend as well as DFS/JRich/Maxi. Arguably, none of them is the defensive leader you are talking about. But even if one of his teammates were perversely sending a message that defense doesn't matter, it's on Luka if he lets that affect his own effort. I credit him with being better than that. 

Not to be Negative Nancy, but I don't hold out much, if any, hope that the Mavs will win it all this season. Even if they were good enough at their best, we are going to be a good 30 games into a 72-game season before they even get their roster fully back and rocking. And they still have some holes in their roster. To win it all, they need to be able to construct a defense that can contain huge guys who are offensive beasts, and they could use more playmaking.  Of course, I know that part of the fun of being a fan is having hope, no matter what, and far be it from me to throw cold water on that!

Agree that it would be great to have another player who is good at scoring, defending, and playmaking. Guys who have all those qualities are usually, like, superstars. But it would surely be excellent to have another!!

[Kammrath]

Can LUKA play the 4 on defense, in your opinion?

Not sure we have seen enough to know. I am inclined to guess that Luka being the second biggest player on the floor would not be good for the team defensively though.

[Kammrath]

he's nowhere remotely close to being a "bad defender" in my opinion. Far from it, actually.

"Bad" is very subjective here and depends on what people may mean by that. It is very accurate to say this though: 

"THJ is a negative defender whose presence consistently hurts his team's defense."

Defensive On/Off...
20-21: -1.7
19-20: -0.6
18-19: -2.4 w/ DAL, -6.6 w/ NYK
17-18: -1.7

He is a consistent liability on the defensive end.

[omahen]

The effect of importance of having Maxi/DFS/Jrich is well documented experimentally now, by their absence. Need to have these guys back, we are nothing without them. Our defense and shooting are both horrible without them.

Of course it is, no agument there. They are way better than Iwundu, Green or Johnson. But the discussion we had was about THJ and Kleber shooting. 

Luka is finding Maxi almost every time he is open. 45% is really great rate offensively. This is why he is not left more open than he is. I dont have the numbers, but I am convinced he is covered on most plays, especially this season.

According to your logic opponents are leaving THJ wide open, allowing him to shoot 8 three pointers per game, but they guard Kleber much tighter reducing him to 4 shots per game. That of course is simply not true. Kleber, as accurate as he is, is very limited in his shooting ability. 

First of all Kleber is extremely one dimensional offensively. Over 80 % of his shots are three pointers and he shoots just 4 per game. Which is already a proof defense doesn't really have a hard time guarding him. 70 % of his shots are wide open. On the other hand THJ is shooting only 20 % wide open shots (so less than 2 per game), while over 40 % of his shots are tightly guarded by the opponent. I guess there is way more data to prove how THJ provides much bigger scoring threat and much more spacing than Kleber. Or DFS for that matter.

[Kammrath]

Over the last two seasons here are how many three attempts per game these guys get in various coverage situations:

THJ
Tight 3s: 1.6, 1.4
Open 3s: 4.0, 3.7
Wide Open 3s: 2.6, 2.2 


Maxi
Tight 3s: 0.0, 0.1
Open 3s: 0.7, 0.5
Wide Open 3s: 3.1, 3.7 

Maxi tends to only shoot when wide open though he does shoot every once in awhile when open as well. THJ gets lots of open shots up but will shoot in tight coverage occasionally and still gets a fair number of wide open looks.

I think you can conclude a couple things: 

1) Defenses tend to honor THJ more than Maxi.

2) THJ is more willing to shoot with a defender near him than Maxi.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I dunno why Maxi stopped rolling/diving to the rim.  He was catching some Luka lobs the last couple of years.

[dirkfansince1998]

"Bad" is very subjective here and depends on what people may mean by that. It is very accurate to say this though: 

"THJ is a negative defender whose presence consistently hurts his team's defense."

Defensive On/Off...
20-21: -1.7
19-20: -0.6
18-19: -2.4 w/ DAL, -6.6 w/ NYK
17-18: -1.7

He is a consistent liability on the defensive end.

Luka improved his defense and his on/off impact is worse than ever. Mavs are 5.5pts worse on defense when he is on the floor. In both cases it is easy to understand why. They are replaced by all defense/no offense guys like Iwundu, Green and Johnson. They also played a lot of minutes without the guys that are missing.
Just based on the eyetest I was happy with THJs defense in most games. He has never been an onball liability and in the first few games his team defense looked a lot better. Might be because of the new scheme or better teammates but he wasn´t hurting the defense.

[KillerLeft]

Not sure we have seen enough to know. I am inclined to guess that Luka being the second biggest player on the floor would not be good for the team defensively though.

Gotcha. If it wasn't clear, that's not what I meant, exactly. DFS would still be the second biggest guy on the floor, for sure. I'm just wondering whether or not changing positional responsibilities between Luka and DFS on the defensive end might yield a different outcome. 

In short, I agree with the evidence to suggest that this lineup is bad, but only to a point. I mean, for one thing, we've never seen those 5 guys play together, even for one minute. Mostly though, I'm just desperately searching for a way to use the Mavs' best players together. I sure hope they have a plan for that, and it's frustrating that we STILL haven't gotten a chance to see what that plan is.

[omahen]

This stat shows a lot why Mavs are 8-8. Mavs are eleventh in number of open three pointers shot in the league. Yet they are second to last in accuracy of this shots converting less than 35 % of them. They are 5th in open shots but convert just 33 % of them (18th in the league). In both cases some 10 percentage points behind league leaders. Mavs are creating well but not executing. If they improve that part, they will be great.