Mavs 108, Rockets 133

[Kammrath]

WCS has been abysmal the last two games.  The light switch hasn't just been turned off, it was covered with sheet rock.  When Powell had had games like this the board lost its ever-loving mind.  Time and time again I made the point that it was incredibly unfair to judge Powell as a solo big.  I will give Willie the same courtesy.  Both of these guys will look better next to KP or Maxi.  But let's be intellectually honest and point out that SAS and Houston have scored at will anytime Willie has been on the floor as a solo big.  We've seen Willie next to KP and it was successful.

Yeah WCS was really bad this last game, and despite a good flurry at the beginning was not very good the game before either. By far his two worst games this year. 

I think you are right to partially attribute it to being the lone big. I would personally argue that NONE of the Mavs bigs are good alone. KP is probably the best because his O is good as the lone big, but ALL of the Mavs bigs are terrible defensively when they play alone. The smaller RC has gone the worse the team has looked defensively. And without KP, bad offensively as well.

[Dahlsim]

I am saying find some kind of 3rd center type that actually can play defense. Right now all of the Mavs bigs are basically 4/5 hybrids. KP can play center effectively enough. Maxi struggles as a center but does well in a 2-big situation. WCS is not providing interior defense enough out there even with another big like JJ. Boban is a traditional center but is a bit player. When Mavs used to have Mejri he was a guy you could stick in there who would play well when called upon. Mavs don't have someone like that on the roster which is a problem. Its less of a problem when Maxi and KP are both available but still an issue.

I get that.  If you get a good defensive center that willing to play 3rd center role is he going to be good offensively too or are you saying you'd rather sacrifice the office because he'll be surrounded with more than enough offense to make up for that? 

If you're talking about a good 2-way center then will he be one that is willing to play 3rd string?  Usually even 2nd string guys that are good defensively and offensively are likely to be of the veteran ring chasing variety that want to jump on the bandwagon with one of the Lebron type guaranteed contenders. 

WCS is not providing interior defense enough out there even with another big like JJ.

Yeah, but WCS was/is supposed to be exactly what you suggest an elite athletic center that can defend well.  
He's absolutely in the Rick Carlisle system mold for a 5.  Perhaps the Covid-19 decimated short rotation is just not an accurate measure of what Willie might ultimately bring. 

Boban is a traditional center but is a bit player. When Mavs used to have Mejri he was a guy you could stick in there who would play well when called upon.

Yes but Mejri who I was a fan of too, was also a bit player for Carlisle. He had a similar situation to Boban where he could have an outstanding game only to be completely sat down or barely get minutes the next game.  Its the Coaching system for better or worse, being heavily defensive matchup based from game to game.  
The question becomes who can you guard? That is as opposed to you will struggle to guard him, but they will struggle more to guard you. 

Yes Mejri was a far better rim protector than Boban who can be frustrating in that respect with his lack of aggression. Problem was Mejri was not the lateral defensive switch out and guard PnR as well as Perimeter and do it well type 5.   
In theory that is the WCS type.   

As for Bobi, Marjanovic is the old dominate you on offense and the boards, Shaq-ish type elite scoring 5. If pressed repeatedly against the opponent then he can give more on offense and boards than he gives away on defense but even though his line was here 

15 points and 12 rebounds in 19 minutes off the bench, and, at +9, was the only Mav in positive figures. 

he, just like a Mejri can only be a bit player here in this system.  This is one reason I thought they might look for a possible trade partner and get back a more usable asset but then people say his cheerleading and locker room value is too high for that. 

[dirkfansince1998]

Yeah WCS was really bad this last game, and despite a good flurry at the beginning was not very good the game before either. By far his two worst games this year. 

I think you are right to partially attribute it to being the lone big. I would personally argue that NONE of the Mavs bigs are good alone. KP is probably the best because his O is good as the lone big, but ALL of the Mavs bigs are terrible defensively when they play alone. The smaller RC has gone the worse the team has looked defensively. And without KP, bad offensively as well.

Offense looks a lot better when they go small. Even against the Rockets. They couldn´t hit a shot and still scored 108pts on 53.7% TS. Only 10 tov. And that includes the last few minutes of rookie chucking. KP obviously is important but I don´t think his size is important for the offense. More about him being one of 3-4 guys that can hit a jumpshot.
The two big lineups obviously are a lot better on defense but against the Pacers and Spurs the Mavs finally looked like the team that I watched last season. Ball movement. Penetration and kick out passes leading to easy scoring opportunities in the paint and from 3.
The spacing is simply way better and KP is more involved on offense. He actually did a really good job as the roll man in both games. A lot better than WCS in the last few games. Even more important than the spacing is the ability to attack of the catch. With KP at center and 4 wings/guards around him every single player on the floor can at least somewhat shoot and attack of the catch. That´s what RC needs to run his flow offense.

Now the Mavs need to find a way to get the best of both worlds. The improved defense that we saw earlier in the season and the free flowing offense of the Spurs and Pacers game. Don´t think KP-WCS is the solution and we have a big sample size of DFS-KP with a negative +/-. Right now I would probably try Kleber/KP and if that isn´t working I would go back to KP/Powell.
Wouldn´t be suprised if the solution isn´t on the roster right now. The Mavs still have some time to make a trade.
Right now I would probably

[KillerLeft]

Now the Mavs need to find a way to get the best of both worlds. The improved defense that we saw earlier in the season and the free flowing offense of the Spurs and Pacers game. Don´t think KP-WCS is the solution and we have a big sample size of DFS-KP with a negative +/-. Right now I would probably try Kleber/KP and if that isn´t working I would go back to KP/Powell.
Wouldn´t be suprised if the solution isn´t on the roster right now. The Mavs still have some time to make a trade.

This has to be nearly unanimous, at this point.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

hope we get to see healthy Jrich, THJ, Luka, Maxi, KP out there together for extended stretches

until then, it's hard to say what we really have

[Kammrath]

Don´t think KP-WCS is the solution and we have a big sample size of DFS-KP with a negative +/-. Right now I would probably try Kleber/KP and if that isn´t working I would go back to KP/Powell.

So here are the pairings with KP this year:

KP+WCS: 70 mins, Offense 101.4, Defense 97.3, Net +4.1

KP+JJ: 60 mins, Offense 103.1, Defense 114.8, Net -11.8

KP+Iwundu: 83 mins, Offense 113.0, Defense 103.8, Net +9.1


Here are his pairings last year:

KP+DP: 498 mins, Offense 117.1, Defense 105.3, +11.9

KP+Maxi: 656 mins, Offense 111.0, Defense 107.4, +3.5


What would I do as a coach?

1) I would NEVER EVER pair JJ and KP. That pairing is as horrible as my eye test remembers. Just terrible offensively and terrible defensively. Honestly I would bench JJ except for very small spot minutes in the occasional game. The only reason I would ever play him beyond that is if my GM needs me to showcase him before the deadline.  

2) I would try starting Iwundu as the 4 until the reinforcements get back. If that works, I would run with it. If it doesn't work I would go back to WCS+KP which we know is at least good defensively.

3) When the reinforcements get back I would prioritize giving DP+KP a quick starting experiment. If that works like last year in a short sample size, then I ride that horse all the way to the playoffs, partly because it rehabs the value of DP's contract.

4) If KP+DP isn't better than WCS or Iwundu next to KP then I give the Maxi+KP combo a big long look. If it works, awesome, that could be a great long term combo that you build your team around.

5) If neither Maxi or DP work next to KP then I go back to the better of Iwundu and WCS and try to hone that chemistry as best as I can leading up to the playoffs.

[dirkfansince1998]

Out on Iwundu as a starter. Probably as a part of the rotation. On offense he is an even bigger liability than Johnson. No handles, no jumpshot and not big enough to be the roll man.

[Kammrath]

Out on Iwundu as a starter

Don't get me wrong, I don't EXPECT it to work, but at least his minutes alongside KP have been good. I would try it briefly before going back to WCS until the reinforcements arrive.

[KillerLeft]

Are we completely giving up on the idea of KP/DFS? 

I think that if the Luka/Richardson/THJ/DFS/KP lineup can't work, at least situationally, the roster construction is in a lot of trouble. When a team's 5 best players can't play together, that team hasn't constructed their roster correctly, imo. Some will count Kleber ahead of DFS, which is fine, but the point still stands. Even your top 6 need to be a group who can exist together easily on the court in any combination, imo. 

Again, I don't care who starts, but when it comes to FINISHING close games, I'm going to be disappointed if 5 out of the 6 above aren't consistently on the floor and on the same page.

[burekemde]

Are we completely giving up on the idea of KP/DFS? 

I think that if the Luka/Richardson/THJ/DFS/KP lineup can't work, at least situationally, the roster construction is in a lot of trouble. When a team's 5 best players can't play together, that team hasn't constructed their roster correctly, imo. Some will count Kleber ahead of DFS, which is fine, but the point still stands. Even your top 6 need to be a group who can exist together easily on the court in any combination, imo. 

Again, I don't care who starts, but when it comes to FINISHING close games, I'm going to be disappointed if five out of the 6 above aren't consistently on the floor and on the same page.

Against the very best teams, that almost all have great big wings, we cant have Jrich and THJ same lineup. Its for this fact I argued beginning of this season that we wont see both of them on the same lineup, and that quickly happened after some games THJ was benched. The lineup that played most last season is DFS on the wing. He is our best player defending the biggest best wings, and our best option for this.

DFS gets bullied by bigs inside. He is a wing player. Its cool to change this up according to situations, for instance when opponents dont have a big wing, or only one big in their lineup.

But when we come down to important games, we will meet a big great wing, and two bigs. They would all destroy both JRich and THJ.

Luka-Jrich-DFS-Maxi-KP

Its our 5 best defenders. Its our 5 best two way players. This is our best team.

THJ is a bad defender. He is not among our 5 best players. Maxi is a better player than THJ and he is even shooting better than THJ right now. Not to say how much he is better defender.

I think people underestimate how great Mavs will be when we have 5 two-way players in same lineup. It has termendous effect on Luka. In the games where we had the best defense, when Jrich and Maxi played and DFS, Lukas defense was on another level than it is now.

Having bad defenders is like a virus, it impacts other teammates and they play less D because of this. Lukas defense is not the same now as when our best defenders were in the team. There is a clear correlation here.

Me personally, I really look forward to see Luka-JRich-DFS-Maxi-KP. I think this might become the best defense in the NBA and with Luka and KP we will have a great offense. We saw this lineup (sans KP with WCS in) and they dominated on defense even without KP. Even with the horrible team we had yesterday, we managed decent offensive production. Defense was horrible with Green, THJ, etc in there.

THJ is the perfect 6th man. He is also the 6th best player. Brunson comes 7th IMO.

When this lineup is back, we can look forward I think.

[KillerLeft]

Against the very best teams, that almost all have great big wings, we cant have Jrich and THJ same lineup. Its for this fact I argued beginning of this season that we wont see both of them on the same lineup, and that quickly happened after some games THJ was benched. The lineup that played most last season is DFS on the wing. He is our best player defending the biggest best wings, and our best option for this.

I'm not really arguing this, except to say that if true, the roster construction is suspect. Again, the team doesn't really work without THJ on the floor, as has been pointed out countless times by countless people. 

I actually believe that DFS has a similar importance, though this might be a less popular opinion. I'm not advocating for him to play the 4, necessarily, just saying that I believe the way the team is constructed, having to move him to the bench when things matter at the end of games in favor of Richardson isn't "progress" for the roster. For this reason alone, I believe that the Luka/THJ/Richardson/DFS lineup will get more chances, at some point. Maybe not starting, but if those four can't play together with either KP or WCS, I think this team is in a ton of trouble. 

Luka-Jrich-DFS-Maxi-KP

Its our 5 best defenders. Its our 5 best two way players. This is our best team.

100% agree that this is a great lineup, and one we will see often when everyone is healthy. My guess is that it's the best defensive lineup they can play without completely abandoning the offense. But, to my point, if THJ can't be substituted for ANY of Luka, Richardson, DFS or Kleber, resulting in the effective rearranging of the lineup to play still effective albeit slight different basketball, then again: the roster isn't built correctly. 

THJ is a bad defender. He is not among our 5 best players. Maxi is a better player than THJ.

I disagree with all three of those sentences. Not interested in debating it for the 1,975th time this year, but I just don't see things that way, and frankly, I don't believe the Mavs do, either. 

THJ is the perfect 6th man.

I...THINK I agree. However, my experience is that different people use "6th man" to mean different things. I would love to start the lineup you have above and then bring THJ off of the bench. I was saying that about a week before they tried it, and when they started doing that for 2-3 games before Covid hit, I think we were all encouraged by the progress being made. 

Having said that, I don't think the 6th man is necessarily the 6th best player. Jason Terry was literally the 2nd best player on this team and came off of the bench for years, as I'm sure you know. Do we actually think Lou Williams has been the 6th best player on all of his teams? 

Again, I'm not trying to get into a pissing match over player rankings, but I also don't think Carlisle's first instinct is going to be benching THJ down the stretch of close games where the spacing gets even more precious. I really, really don't believe that, like, even for a second. 

I'll stick my neck out this far: As the roster is currently constructed, the Mavericks' closing lineup has three names written on it in PEN. Luka, KP and Hardaway.

[KillerLeft]

@"burekemde" think of it this way:

Let's say you're right and THJ is the 6th best. 

According to your thinking, the team's 6th best player can ONLY be used to spell one, specific player on the roster: Richardson. In other words, you think those two, both SOMEWHERE in the team's top 6, have literally only the 48 minutes at ONE guard spot to split between them?

Either you're wrong about that, or you're right about it and the team is woefully poorly put together.

[RDB]

I'll stick my neck out this far: As the roster is currently constructed, the Mavericks' closing lineup has three names written on it in PEN. Luka, KP and Hardaway.

Don’t forget Christian Wood!!!

Wait, did we pick him up?

https://media.giphy.com/media/3og0IJs6zf.../giphy.gif

[KillerLeft]

I have a question for @"DanSchwartzman":

You have consistently made a compelling argument that illuminates the positives Powell brings to the table, and I honestly agree with 99% of it. 

When you imagine Powell through the frame of what Burkemede and I are discussing, where does he fall? Like, forget synergy for a second and just rank the Mavs' players in a way that makes sense to you in a vacuum. Where is he on that list for you?

[Kammrath]

The lineup that played most last season is DFS on the wing. He is our best player defending the biggest best wings, and our best option for this.

DFS gets bullied by bigs inside. He is a wing player.

There is so much evidence that DFS needs to be the wing or the 3 for himself and this team to be successful. I am against anything that puts DFS as the 4 for any extended minutes.

[KillerLeft]

I am against anything that puts DFS as the 4 for any extended minutes.

Yeah, it's not even that I disagree with this...it's just a drag that the roster isn't easier to fit together, because DFS does need to be out there, somehow. So does THJ. So does Richardson. 

Serious question: Can LUKA play the 4 on defense, in your opinion?

[burekemde]

@"burekemde" think of it this way:

Let's say you're right and THJ is the 6th best. 

According to your thinking, the team's 6th best player can ONLY be used to spell one, specific player on the roster: Richardson. In other words, you think those two, both SOMEWHERE in the team's top 6, have literally only the 48 minutes at ONE guard spot to split between them?

Either you're wrong about that, or you're right about it and the team is woefully poorly put together.

KL, I do think we will see plenty of Luka-Jrich-THJ-DFS, but this is more a specialist lineup, when this suits the best what opponent we meet, for instance with two smaller wings, this willl suit great. There will be plenty of opportunities, and there will be teams we meet where this will be our best lineup indeed.

My point is that if we want to win it all, and we really do, It will come down to Lakers, Clippers, etc. etc. We need to build the roster for this. Then it's only and only DFS at one of the wing positions, guarding the Kawhi's and the Lebron's. We dont have that big wing that can defend better than DFS. There is of course Luka, he is really improved a lot, but I dont think he can stay with these opponents and do nearly as well as DFS can. In some seasons time in future maybe yes, but we will see how things are this season.Our second best option here on wing is Maxi here, then JJ, then Luka. Our season is defined by how we solve this, more than anything else. So I think the major most important lineup is with DFS on one of the wing postions.

Many teams use ton of lineups throughout season, to adjust to very different opponents. Playoff time, there will be less changes.

With THJ, we play one less defender. With Green on top of this, we play 3 vs 5. Any NBA team will have a great offensive game with this. This was clear to me that such a depleted Rockets team, had offensive game of their season. Its not a coincidence that when THJ began to start, and JRich/DFS/Maxi are out, we turn from best defense in the league to absolutely worst. There is a clear pattern here. And Luka turns from great defensive effort, hungry to make a defensive play, to be a passenger on defense...

To win it all, it is best to have 5 two-way players playing the most important minutes. Setting the tone. I think the result will be amazing if we have these 5 healthy setting the tone of the games.

We will have JJ to back up DFS on the wing. He has the size and strength to complement DFS in this. THJ can score a ton of points as 6th man. Brunson can play the backup PG and play along with Luka in certain matchups. Powell and WCS can backup Maxi and KP.

I think back to full strength, this will be the best Mavs team in many years. We have built a team with two-way players.

Luka / Brunson
JRich / THJ / Terry
DFS / JJ / T. Bey / Green
Maxi / DP
KP / WCS / Bobi

[KillerLeft]

KL, I do think we will see plenty of Luka-Jrich-THJ-DFS, but this is more a specialist lineup, when this suits the best what opponent we meet, for instance with two smaller wings, this willl suit great. There will be plenty of opportunities, and there will be teams we meet where this will be our best lineup indeed.

Ok, sweet, thanks for this clarification. We're in the same ballpark.

I think that where our thinking diverges is solely on Hardaway, then. 

I personally believe Carlisle is going to be desperate to find a way for Hardaway to close most games, regardless of the opponent. If it really ends up being true that the DFS as the biggest non-center lineup can't work against most teams, then to me, that means that Kleber's spot (or Powell's, maybe) will come at the expense of either DFS or Richardson. That's the problem I'm having.

[mavsluvr]

Luka-Jrich-DFS-Maxi-KP

Its our 5 best defenders. Its our 5 best two way players. This is our best team.

THJ is the perfect 6th man. He is also the 6th best player. Brunson comes 7th IMO.

With regard to the lineup you reference, I might go with that if you're getting the best of Jrich-DFS-Maxi in any particular game. But DFS and Jrich are both shooting at below-par levels, and even if that improves as a general matter, there will be games where they are not hitting their shots. 


The Mavs, as constructed, absolutely have to have at least three guys, much preferably at least four, who can hit jump shots at an above-average clip on the floor at any time. As of now, that lineup has only two. Hopefully, that gets better, but for now, it hasn't.

I don't care about who starts, it's about who plays the most minutes, and who is on the floor at the ends of competitive games. Their team strategy is built around high-percentage shooting. Accordingly, the high-percentage shooters are going to have to be on the court with the two-way players for a majority of the minutes available. 

The Mavs currently depend on three guys to do the bulk of the scoring - Luka, KP and THJ. No one else on the roster can do what THJ does, like it or not. 

I think it would certainly be possible that THJ assumes a sixth man role, if by sixth man, you mean one of the team's best players, who starts off the bench, but plays starter minutes and is usually on the floor at the ends of games. 

But if you mean he will be relegated to a microwave role, I don't see it.

Not sure we disagree. I like the all-two-way lineup, and do expect we will see a lot of it. But it doesn't have enough offense for the team to marginalize the shooters. I predict we'll see THJ in closing lineups rather than Rich/DFS in many cases, or maybe a O/D substitution with one of those. Or a lineup with JRich, THJ, DFS/Maxi, alongside Luka and KP.

[omahen]

Serious question: Can LUKA play the 4 on defense, in your opinion?

I think there is no problem with that for most of cases. These are starting PF of western teams: Millsap/MPJ, Green, Tucker, Morris, Davis when going big or LeBron when going small, Jackson, Hernangomez? (I have no idea who is PF for Minny), Zion, Bazley, Crowder, Covington, Bagley, Johnson? (SA are another team without PF), O'Neal. Size wise it would be useful to have two bigs against big ball Lakers and New Orleans, all of the rest Luka can easily handle. 

Having two big guys is useful when guarding PnR. Having a real big wing would be best.