THJ for the bench!

[fifteenth]

In his last 140 attempts from three he is shooting 36% which is basically his career percentage of 35.4%. There are signs he is regressing to the mean and that the 40% is not some new normal. The year before he shot 34% on 477 attempts. 

I think THIS is what makes people nervous about him. There is not a lot of statistical evidence to call him a "40% three point shooter."

He was an elite shooter for the 19/20 regular season. He fell off in the bubble and in the playoffs. It's possible the fall off was environment based and not regression. A 3 game sample size, for me, is not enough to consider last season an anomaly. 

Also, THJ's general play with the Mavs doesn't justify the chucker tag, even if he had a lower shooting percentage. He changed his play to fit the coaches'request. He works hard to use screens and get open in the right spots at the right time and he steps into his shots when he catches the ball. That's not chucking. Chucking is looking for your own, good shot or not, and is contrary to the team concept. That's not the Mavs version of THJ.

[KillerLeft]

I really think the w/o KP minutes will be Luka with Maxi/WCS (or Johnson)/JRich and Burke.
The w/o Luka minutes will be KP with Powell, Brunson, THJ and DFS.

Love the post, and I love the point. I am on board with your thinking.

However, I strongly object to the idea that Powell offers much when used without Luka.

[StepBackJay]

He works hard to use screens and get open in the right spots at the right time and he steps into his shots when he catches the ball. That's not chucking. Chucking is looking for your own, good shot or not, and is contrary to the team concept. That's not the Mavs version of THJ.

During these first few games he has definitely done more chucking which is forcing his own shot. Clippers game everything was going in. Watching THJ this year everything looks like chucking. When he gets the ball its going up most of the time. Not a lot of ball movement. Again this is due to KP not being out there, I expect much less of this when KP is back. I like catch and shoot THJ a lot. Dribbling around THJ is not fun.

[fifteenth]

I started down this path earlier today, but work intervened.


Put another way, I think the board spends too much time focused on who plays the first six minutes of each half.  Until we get a third star, Carlisle is going to stagger KP and Luka for much of the game.  So, quite a few minutes will be played with one star, but not the other.  Who plays best with which star and how the rotation sets up for the "star reunion" at the end of each half is equally important as who gets announced with the starters.  BTW, this isn't exclusive to the 20/21 Mavs.  For years we saw Terry (and Ginobli) come off the bench because it set up end of game situations better than if they started.  Dragic is clearly the best PG on the Miami roster and started during the playoffs.  But, he's coming off the bench again in the regular season because it keeps him fresh and allows other (Herro) to try to expand their game in the mean time.  

As to what should happen regarding THJ or Max or Powell or DFS...

Powell was by far the best pairing with KP among starters last season (Brunson was better, but not a starter).  Maxi was the worst pairing with KP among regulars who are still here (Wright was worse).  A closing lineup of KP/Maxi makes sense on paper, but a year ago it didn't actually work very well.

I think THJ is in a tough position in his contract year.  Winning means Dallas has to make a priority of integrating JRich well.  Plays have to be called that put him in good positions and that probably means fewer of the opportunities THJ got last season.  Never fear, THJ and JRich won't share the floor for 32 minutes.  They might not share the floor for half of those minutes.  The good news (to your point) is KP/THJ was a good two man pairing last year.

I really think the w/o KP minutes will be Luka with Maxi/WCS (or Johnson)/JRich and Burke.
The w/o Luka minutes will be KP with Powell, Brunson, THJ and DFS.

But Carlisle is going to keep trying different pairings until they have good internal data on what works and what doesn't.  That can't really even begin in earnest until KP returns.

I really appreciate your posts on this topic (staggered lineups). I've always been aware that the lineups were staggered but never wanted to spend the time to chart that out in detail. But your "w/ Luka" and "w/ KP" suggestion simplifies things and makes it easier to think and talk about. I'm looking forward to see how w/ Luka and w/ KP eventually shakes out.

[StepBackJay]

Love the post, and I love the point. I am on board with your thinking.

However, I strongly object to the idea that Powell offers much when used without Luka.

I think Powell will look just fine in that 2nd unit. First, he will be with Maxi as the 2nd big which is better for him than being out there with DFS who is a wing. Second, he will be playing against 2nd units, often without a guy like an AD-type that will totally destroy him. Third he does well with a faster pace, which we often see with Mavs bench. Luka can play fast but plays at a more deliberate pace usually. I like it when the bench plays good defense and pushes the ball hard. Powell does well in this situation. So I am all about him coming off the bench, I hope to see that sooner than later.

[Mavsfan12]

I am banging the drum that the answer lies in trading THJ for a better fitting player.  I know that there are some that do not love OPJ, but he is one of the best answers to this dilemma.  Fits here perfectly.  There are better fits, (Middleton would be amazing, of course), but he is ultimately attainable and would seriously upgrade that spot in the lineup.

[Kammrath]

He was an elite shooter for the 19/20 regular season. He fell off in the bubble and in the playoffs. It's possible the fall off was environment based and not regression. A 3 game sample size, for me, is not enough to consider last season an anomaly. 

So I was not speaking to shot selection and the label of "chucker" just that I think calling him a "40% three point shooter" is speaking to only one season worth of data (and really about 60 games worth of data if you don't include the bubble). 

Here are THJ's catch and shoot (what we would ALL say is the shot he should be taking most) numbers for 3P%:

2020: 42.1%
2019: 32.3%
2018: 34.2%
2017: 36.1%
2016: 35.3%
2015: 35.2%

So FIVE full seasons before last year was 34.6% on catch and shoot threes. Then last year he jumped to 42.1% or 7.5% (!) from his career average.

My point? I want to see MORE data before concluding that last year was anything more than an aberration, especially because his last 140 attempts has been more in line with the five seasons before last.  


Note: In case anyone is wondering through all of these seasons he is basically shooting the same amount of open and wide-open shots, so it is not like he got a ton more open looks last year than ever before.

[Benskix2]

I feel like the THJ we got last year was the best possible version of him, that Richardson is a big upgrade, and that Tim's confidence will suffer if we move him to the bench and he won't be a productive player, so I think trading him is ultimately going to be what's best.

[DanSchwartzgan]

That looks good as a closing lineup: last 4 - 8 minutes in a close game. There is no reason you can't have that lineup closing, and a completely different lineup starting. 

For example, Kleber has shown historically that he does not perform well with large minutes in several consecutive games. He has to be held to 28 minutes or less to get consistent production on offense. If you are going to limit him to 28 minutes, and potentially play him the last 8 minutes of the game, he only has 20 minutes available to play in the first 40 minutes of the game. That is a good reason for him not to start.

Perhaps the Mavs should start another shooter instead. How about THJ?

Welcome Sonic!

Love the post, and I love the point. I am on board with your thinking.

However, I strongly object to the idea that Powell offers much when used without Luka.

I don't know a great way to do this.  If you screen two-man lineups with Powell you find plenty of good pairings:

Powell + THJ = 13.6
Powell + Maxi = 12.1
Powell + KP = 11.9
Powell + DFS = 10.2

But the functionality doesn't screen out lineups w/o Luka.  To get to your point, you have to screen 5 man lineups w/o Luka and w/Powell.  The sample sizes are pretty small.  In 18/19 Powell and Luka were only on the court for 687 minutes together or 41% of Powell's minutes together.  They were not good together.


If you go to 82games.com, 3 of the top 5 five-man 19/20 lineups Powell participated in have Luka with him.  The third most used Powell Lineup was:  

Brunson/THJ/DFS/Powell/KP at +20.0

The other was Brunson/Wright/THJ/Jackson/Powell, which was positive, but is largely meaningless now.  If you go to 18/19, there were all sorts of lineups that worked well without Luka.

Long way of saying you may be right (maybe even you are probably right).  But, we just haven't seen enough to know...especially since Brunson isn't the player he was two years ago.

[omahen]

I know that there are some that do not love OPJ, but he is one of the best answers to this dilemma.

I think it is obvious Chicago doesn't really count on OPJ moving forward, as he lost his starting job to rookie Williams. There will not be many good offers for him as contenders don't really have 25 mil of salary they are willing to trade away. Unless of course Chicago makes a splashy trade for a star and use OPJ salary there. GSW for example is a team that might be looking for expiring contracts not to pay gazillions of taxes for next three years.

I am sort of intrigued in him, but I wouldn't trade THJ. Johnson+Powell plus assets for him would be my move.

[ItsGoTime]

I think it is obvious Chicago doesn't really count on OPJ moving forward, as he lost his starting job to rookie Williams. There will not be many good offers for him as contenders don't really have 25 mil of salary they are willing to trade away. Unless of course Chicago makes a splashy trade for a star and use OPJ salary there. GSW for example is a team that might be looking for expiring contracts not to pay gazillions of taxes for next three years.

I am sort of intrigued in him, but I wouldn't trade THJ. Johnson+Powell plus assets for him would be my move.

I really like this reasoning and trade thought. I think Chi might bite on that too. I'd hate to miss the opportunity to see what JJ can do on this team, but I think for the upgrade, it is worth it. We could sign him in FA as well though. 


I think this only happens (well besides the point that the Mavs will probably NEVER trade Powell) if WCS is meshing and playing well when JJ becomes available to trade.

[pompelmo]

Maxi was the worst pairing with KP among regulars who are still here (Wright was worse).  A closing lineup of KP/Maxi makes sense on paper, but a year ago it didn't actually work very well.

I suppose you meant "A closing lineup of KP/Maxi makes sense in theory, but a year ago it didn't actually work very well on paper", assuming you get the idea that "it didn't work"  from some on/off numbers.

Having much deeper and thorough data available to him, why would Rick start the Clippers series with KP-Maxi pairing if it didn't work? (which, probably added more negative to their overall plus/minus as a pairing).

The problem with NBA stats is comparing KP-Dwight's on/off against Cleveland to KP-Maxi's on/off against Zion - Favors, then assume with large enough data in the pool, each pairing has played enough against teams of different strengths and weakness that it is comparable; but it doesn't take into account that Rick and other coaches specifically hunt for match ups to maximize the strengths of their roster. Just gotta look deeper. Just gotta look deeper

Do you really think (or trust the suggestive data that) starting KP-Dwight would have done better (or let me rephrase, wouldn't have done much worse) against the Clippers than KP-Maxi if Powell was available?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Having much deeper and thorough data available to him, why would Rick start the Clippers series with KP-Maxi pairing if it didn't work? (which, probably added more negative to their overall plus/minus as a pairing).

The problem with NBA stats is comparing KP-Dwight's on/off against Cleveland to KP-Maxi's on/off against Zion - Favors, then assume with large enough data in the pool, each pairing has played enough against teams of different strengths and weakness that it is comparable 

Do you really think (or trust the suggestive data that) starting KP-Dwight would have done better (or let me rephrase, wouldn't have done much worse) against the Clippers than KP-Maxi if Powell was available?

Lots of problems here.

The LAC series didn't add anything to the negative data for KP/Maxi because the data being used is regular season (a much larger sample size).

The data doesn't somehow narrow in on KP/Powell's start against Cleveland vs. KP/Maxi's start against NO.  It tracks every moment of every game of the entire season.  KP/Powell wasn't just better when they started together.  They were better when they played at any point in any game together.

If you are willing to grant any predictive power to player combos and on/off stats, the data do suggest KP/Powell would have been better (or less bad) against LAC.  The Mavs do believe in the predictive power of these stats BTW.  They once employed the guy who wrote the book.  They absolutely do have better and more thorough data than is publicly available and it certainly might have said Maxi is a better matchup against this particular player or that particular team. But we don't have that data (or at least I don't). 

As to why Carlisle "choose" to start KP/Maxi in the playoffs?  I'd suggest it was because he didn't have much choice with Powell and WCS both unavailable.

[pompelmo]

Lots of problems here.

The LAC series didn't add anything to the negative data for KP/Maxi because the data being used is regular season (a much larger sample size).

The data doesn't somehow narrow in on KP/Powell's start against Cleveland vs. KP/Maxi's start against NO.  It tracks every moment of every game of the entire season.  KP/Powell wasn't just better when they started together.  They were better when they played at any point in any game together.

Sorry for not making this clearer. What I mean is the opposition that KP/Maxi and KP/Powell pairings face also matter. If you play Maxi against the more threatening matchups every time and get slightly negative +/-, while managing Kleber's minutes against lesser opponents, it is only natural for him to appear worse on the accumulated data. These stats make the assumption that either the quality of the opposition is always the same or it evens out in the long run with large enough data (which I pointed out in my above post). It doesn't.

Before the second game of the play-offs, Carlisle said Kleber didn't start much during the regular season because they prefer to manage his minutes unless absolutely necessary. Not because he is the worse option. I am pretty sure he would have still started in Clippers series and play the majority of minutes even if Powell was available. 

As you said, Dallas certainly have better data available which also takes matchups into account rather than relying on stats derived from basic on/off data. I would expect nothing less. What I say is you are reaching conclusions on incomplete data; similar to saying Joe Harris and Stephen Curry are similar quality three point shooters because their three point hit rate is close at 43%. 

Let's assume that it is the only data available to the public. This is not the stat that the Mavs would rely on.

They know Curry hits 41,5% of his almost 5 pull up threes a game while Harris can hit only 1 in 5 attempts which he takes only 1 per game (probably all heaves). They know Steph Curry can hit over 35% of his even tightly and very tightly contested shots while Harris excels only on open and wide open threes. They wouldn't confuse Harris with Curry.

Publicly available stuff is pretty basic and loaded with lots of noise. 

By the way, I don't think they ever thought "let's just ignore this data we have collected from the Clippers series because these were not regular season games" either. Separating regular season and play-off data is alright for the history books, but doesn't make much sense for the analytics team to do so.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Sorry for not making this clearer. What I mean is the opposition that KP/Maxi and KP/Powell pairings face also matter. If you play Maxi against the more threatening matchups every time and get slightly negative +/-, while managing Kleber's minutes against lesser opponents, it is only natural for him to appear worse on the accumulated data. These stats make the assumption that either the quality of the opposition is always the same or it evens out in the long run with large enough data. It doesn't.

You are making assumptions also.  Powell played against starters during the time frame in question.  Maxi played against backups.  Yet, Maxi + KP wasn't as good as Powell + KP.   Are you next going to tell me teams player their best players as backups?

You are trying to create a narrative around an off the cuff comment about managing minutes and one game where he famously was asked to guard Zion.  Maxi isn't as good when he starts and he's not as good when he goes over 30 minutes.  AND he's not as strong a pairing with KP as Powell is with KP.  Those are all facts.  You can make whatever supposition you wish and then pretend your opinion has overcome facts.  In the end, it is still just an opinion.

[dirkfansince1998]

You are making assumptions also.  Powell played against starters during the time frame in question.  Maxi played against backups.  Yet, Maxi + KP wasn't as good as Powell + KP.   Are you next going to tell me teams player their best players as backups?

You are trying to create a narrative around an off the cuff comment about managing minutes and one game where he famously was asked to guard Zion.  Maxi isn't as good when he starts and he's not as good when he goes over 30 minutes.  AND he's not as strong a pairing with KP as Powell is with KP.  Those are all facts.  You can make whatever supposition you wish and then pretend your opinion has overcome facts.  In the end, it is still just an opinion.

Not like Maxi wasn´t guarding the best opposing wing or big in other games. AD, Siakam or Giannis. Kawhi in the playoffs. I agree that Maxi struggles when he gets more than 20-25 minutes per game. He just lacks the durability to play 82 games / 30+ minutes. I am also not sure why he completly abandoned any inside scoring. He used to be a solid rim runner (obviously not close to Powell). So far he had 17 FGA. 16 3s and one midrange jumper. Not a single layup or dunk attempt.
That´s obviously his role in the offensive scheme but not involving him in the pick and roll or asking him to cut makes the offense more predictable and easier to defend when he is on the floor.
That said. A guy that is shooting 50% from 3 isn´t the problem. More about the rest of the team. Against the Hornets Maxi and THJ were the only guys that could make a jump shot. Maxi cannot create for himself and after he made three shots in a row they simply denied him any further shot attempt.

Based on the small sample size of 3 preseason and 4 regular season games it is pretty obvious that the current version of Powell shouldn´t be on the floor in a competitive game. The boxscore, +/-, my eyes...are all telling the same story. Powell has been beyond bad on both ends of the floor.
I really don´t get what RC is trying to prove right now. Powell won´t improve over night and asking him to play when he clearly isn´t ready won´t help him.

[Branduil]

Like I said.

[FunkBoreland]

IMO the best way to maximize THJ this year vs. last year is giving him Seth Curry's bench role. Let him be a floor-spacer off the bench who can open things up for Brunson and Burke to work inside. If he gets hot, keep him in.

[ThisIStheYear]

I'd start Luka / JRich / DFS / Maxi / WCS but we'll see how long Rick sticks with Powell.

Nice call. This really is the most balanced lineup they can put on the floor until KP is back. THJ bringing offense off the bench as a super sixth man really puts it over the top. I’d stay with this lineup for awhile.