2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[ItsGoTime]

I'm standing firm on THJ island. 

In all honesty, I don’t think even you see a place for him in the starting lineup. Your whole hypothesis is for another star playmaker. What position do those mostly come from? THJ and Luka’s spots is the answer. It can come from another position, but the most likely scenerio puts THJ out of the starting position. If he’s not starting, and not playing with Luka lots, I don’t see how you could possibly be on THJ island.


This is why the “who” in your statements is important. You’ve named Jrue as the perfect fit and named the FO going after Kemba as the biggest reason for your hypothesis. If Jrue or Kemba were on this team, I hope THJ is not starting!

[DanSchwartzgan]

Richardsons caphold if he opts out 17.5 mio

Johnson expiring 16 mio
Powell this year 10.2 mio

With both outgoing the Mavs could absorb 31.2 mio in salary. If they absorb less they could still use the full MLE and stay under the luxury tax line
With Johnson outgoing the Mavs could absorb 19 mio in a trade. Same case when it comes to the MLE and luxury tax.

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With smart asset management the Mavs could keep both THJ and Richardson, add another starter and still use the full MLE

@98, I've seen you use the $17.5mm number for Richardson before.  I believe the actual number in 21 is $16.3 in case it matters to any of your calculations.  The hold is 150% of the "prior" year salary.  Your $17.5 number would be accurate in 22 if JRich opted into his existing contract for 21.  The presumption is he will hit the open market in 21, which makes his hold 150% of his 2020 number (which is $16.3mm).  Of course, he could sign first using cap room and possibly make that number smaller.  He could also opt in and extend later keeping the number even lower ($11.6mm).  But, his extension would be limited to starting at $14mm.

Powell and Johnson can combine to bring back someone making $34mm ($11.080 + $16.047 with likely incentives * 1.25% + $100,000).  They miss matching Tobias Harris (for instance) by $350,000, which would be fairly easy to overcome.  I personally think an in season trade (as you are suggesting) is a better use of resources than waiting for the summer.  Absent Gi or Go, there just isn't anyone on the free agent market worth giving up two starters for.  Combining Johnson with any of Maxi, Powell, THJ or Richardson seems better than giving up at least two of Maxi, Powell, THJ and Richardson.

[omahen]

Powell and Johnson can combine to bring back someone making $34mm ($11.080 + $16.047 with likely incentives * 1.25% + $100,000).  They miss matching Tobias Harris (for instance) by $350,000, which would be fairly easy to overcome.  I personally think an in season trade (as you are suggesting) is a better use of resources than waiting for the summer.  Absent Gi or Go, there just isn't anyone on the free agent market worth giving up two starters for.  Combining Johnson with any of Maxi, Powell, THJ or Richardson seems better than giving up at least two of Maxi, Powell, THJ and Richardson.

Totally agree. Even if, for example, our FA target would be Oladipo, it makes more sense to trade for him before TDL, as long as the price is lower than two starters (THJ and JRich). We would need to renounce them to clear cap space for him. And please, Oladipo is just an example, I don't want whole "I think Oladipo is crap" debate again  

Unless they will have firm commitments from theoretical possible max worthy free agents (GA, George and Kawhi are the only ones), I think going over the cap gives way more opportunity to upgrade the roster than going the FA way. Again - even if it means a couple of assets. This team is deep and the only thing we need to improve is to upgrade on one or two starter slots, assuming JRich proves he brings what we hope he will.

[KillerLeft]

In all honesty, I don’t think even you see a place for him in the starting lineup. Your whole hypothesis is for another star playmaker. What position do those mostly come from? THJ and Luka’s spots is the answer. It can come from another position, but the most likely scenerio puts THJ out of the starting position. If he’s not starting, and not playing with Luka lots, I don’t see how you could possibly be on THJ island.

Oh, I would trade him for a difference maker in a heartbeat, obvs. 

I just think he's really important this year, and has a great spot in the starting lineup right now. I'm just saying he was a good player for the team last year, not a problem. I think (hope) he will be again, this year. That's the "island" I'm on.

[KillerLeft]

Oladipo is just an example, I don't want whole "I think Oladipo is crap" debate again 

I'll chime in here, because I think I might've been the strongest voice against Oladipo (although there were others). 

I know we don't want to get into this again, but I just wanted to say that he's a player I'll be watching as closely as possible this season. I DO view him as a possibility at the TDL or in FA...IF he's playing well again. I just wasn't excited about trading for him this time around because of there being so many people out there who flat out don't believe he's any good anymore. If he is, let's get him! The "idealized" version of him certainly checks off some boxes for the team. We should know soon (but the TDL, I'd think) if he'll ever be that guy again. 

Just one of many, many things that could look a lot differently as time passes.

[omahen]

Just one of many, many things that could look a lot differently as time passes.

Another thing that will look completely different if he does an all star performance, will be his price

[KillerLeft]

Another thing that will look completely different if he does an all star performance, will be his price

Oh, for sure, but maybe not by a huge margin. 

I think the reason there was "no trade market" was that A) Indiana wanted a lot for him and B) Oladipo wants to get PAID. 

I think that if he plays well this season, teams might think he's worth paying the price that's already there (or maybe even more). Alternatively, I think if he continues NOT to play well, both the trade price and his personal idea of what his next deal should be might drift a bit closer to (that) reality. 

Either way, I think he's definitely a person of interest for the Mavs moving forward, at least. That's all I wanted to say. I'm not AGAINST the player coming here (it's not like he's Tobias Harris), I just want to see if he'll ever be good again before paying him or giving anything up for him.

[michaeltex]

I just think he's really important this year, and has a great spot in the starting lineup right now. I'm just saying he was a good player for the team last year, not a problem. I think (hope) he will be again, this year. That's the "island" I'm on.

Thing is, this is a "contract" year for THJ so he's going to be all out to position for his next contract and I expect we will see that in his numbers. So, for the upcoming season at least, I expect him to at least equal last season and maybe improve a little. Longer term reverting to the mean may be a concern, although if he knows his role on a successful team maybe this will be his new normal. That's where roster stability, like GSW or SAN, comes in to maintain everyone's identity within the system.


I DO have a mild concern of THJ trying to do too much to pad his stats. IF he becomes a ball stopper or starts forcing shots outside the offensive flow, then that's something the team will have to address.

[KillerLeft]

I DO have a mild concern of THJ trying to do too much to pad his stats. IF he becomes a ball stopper or starts forcing shots outside the offensive flow, then that's something the team will have to address.

This is reasonable. I just have the feeling that how he was used here (and with whom he played) was a big part of why he was effective. He wasn’t a ball-stopper last season, and I have to think he’s smart enough to see that last year was a positive for him (and why).

[omahen]

I know we don't want to get into this again, but I just wanted to say that he's a player I'll be watching as closely as possible this season. I DO view him as a possibility at the TDL or in FA...IF he's playing well again. I just wasn't excited about trading for him this time around because of there being so many people out there who flat out don't believe he's any good anymore. If he is, let's get him! The "idealized" version of him certainly checks off some boxes for the team. We should know soon (but the TDL, I'd think) if he'll ever be that guy again. 

Just one of many, many things that could look a lot differently as time passes.

This piece opens an interesting dilemma. Assuming he will be good - how long does he have to be good for you to be convinced he is good? The longer you wait, more likely a competitor jumps in. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2921...-right-now

[KillerLeft]

@"omahen" I would be interested in buying early on some players, for sure. I actually think Christian Wood might look like a missed opportunity in a year or two. So, I get the point. 

I just don't see Oladipo in that light. Since my belief is that he won't be a very good player moving forward, I'm not interested in beating the competition to him. If he ends up proving me wrong and the Mavs trade for him, I'll be excited, but if he ends up being awesome and some other team gets him, I'll be fine with that. It won't change the history of how I assess the situation right now, if that makes sense, and I just think the team's future is too precious to gamble on a player like that. 

I get that you and some others are reasonably convinced he'll be good, but I'm just not.

[omahen]

@omahen I would be interested in buying early on some players, for sure. I actually think Christian Wood might look like a missed opportunity in a year or two. So, I get the point. 

I just don't see Oladipo in that light. Since my belief is that he won't be a very good player moving forward, I'm not interested in beating the competition to him. If he ends up proving me wrong and the Mavs trade for him, I'll be excited, but if he ends up being awesome and some other team gets him, I'll be fine with that. It won't change the history of how I assess the situation right now, if that makes sense, and I just think the team's future is too precious to gamble on a player like that. 

I get that you and some others are reasonably convinced he'll be good, but I'm just not.

I was speaking about Oladipo, didn't realize the link will show Harden. ASSUME he will be good. How many good games does he needs to have to convince you he is worth trading for? Interesting dilemma imho.

[KillerLeft]

I was speaking about Oladipo, didn't realize the link will show Harden. ASSUME he will be good. How many good games does he needs to have to convince you he is worth trading for? Interesting dilemma imho.

Yeah, I assumed you were talking about Oladipo. 

To answer the question, I would think him being a healthy and difference making player up to the trade deadline would move the needle a bit for me.

[fifteenth]

Home Depot?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Question (since he went 1/11 last night):

If you were willing to trade Wright/Jackson/18 for Jerami Grant prior to the draft...

Are you willing to deal Johnson/Green for him now (and give Detroit the entire middle of the first round  )  The question assumes GA signs the Super Max

I was reading Hollinger's preview of the Pistons and I still don't get the Grant signing (BTW, who was it who kept telling me Denver would never "let" Grant go because they invested a first round pick to get him?).  Grant is miscast (IMHO) in a higher usage role within the offense.  $20mm seems an overpay by maybe $5mm.  BUT, if Detroit has buyers remorse, his skill set might fit well here.  Trading for him allows you to keep everyone (RJich, THJ, WCS) and move Powell/DFS to super sub roles alongside Maxi and Brunson AND you'd have the Full MLE instead of the Room MLE next summer.

If such a deal came up...would you?

[omahen]

who was it who kept telling me Denver would never "let" Grant

Well, they didn't let him go, reportedly they actually matched the offer. He chose to go.

If such a deal came up...would you?

No. His reason to leave was to have a leading offensive role. Denver couldn't offer it and we would not either. Last thing I would want would be an unhappy player on a three year 60 mil contract. If we are speaking about overpaid players, Harris is still much better choice for me.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Well, they didn't let him go, reportedly they actually matched the offer. He chose to go.

Which was my point all along.  Denver had no control no matter what they paid to get him.  He wasn't theirs to "let" do anything.

[KillerLeft]

I'd still have some interest in Grant, yes. I believe he'd be better here than he is about to be in Detroit, where he'll play out of position on a team with very little offensive discipline. 

He's overpaid, but only by a little. It's not a Tobias Harris situation. This probably wouldn't be my first choice of post-Giannis targets, but he'd be on the list somewhere.

[omahen]

I believe he'd be better here than he is about to be in Detroit, where he'll play out of position on a team with very little offensive discipline.

I agree he would be better here. Point is - he wanted to be in a situation he has in Detroit, not in a similar situation he would have in Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

I agree he would be better here. Point is - he wanted to be in a situation he has in Detroit, not in a similar situation he would have in Dallas.

Oh, I absolutely would be ok with him being on-ball more. That wouldn't be an issue at all. I think he can do more with the ball than Porzingis. That's not what I meant about him being better here.