2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

@"KillerLeft" all I can say is be patient. KP has a lot of offensive skill but it's still a WIP. He would for sure be wasted as a pure spacer considering he can do much more. We saw flashes of thing where he takes the ball at the top of the key, pumps and then drives and kicks or blows by his guy all the way to the rack. He is a real mismatch for the other team.

The other piece of it was trying to figure out his optimal weight which has been a WIP as well and affects how he plays. I imagine by now he is closer to his ideal weight, whatever that is.

Can his body handle a lot of movement like a poor man's KD or is that going to just get him injured? He and Rick will figure things it. We don't even know 100% who is the best frontcourt partner for KP. Pre-injury the thought was Powell but then we saw a lot of problems with that. Post-injury I thought KP looked amazing and much more involved in the offense as the center. Will Rick go back to that? I have thought now for months he absolutely would but you never know. We won't know for sure until he is back but an early indicator might be whether or not we see Powell in the starting lineup. Rick has been vocal saying he likes Maxi off the bench so if he starts WCS and says the same about Powell then we will know Powell we not be a starter again.

[KillerLeft]

@"KillerLeft" all I can say is be patient. KP has a lot of offensive skill but it's still a WIP. He would for sure be wasted as a pure spacer considering he can do much more. We saw flashes of thing where he takes the ball at the top of the key, pumps and then drives and kicks or blows by his guy all the way to the rack. He is a real mismatch for the other team.

The other piece of it was trying to figure out his optimal weight which has been a WIP as well and affects how he plays. I imagine by now he is closer to his ideal weight, whatever that is.

Can his body handle a lot of movement like a poor man's KD or is that going to just get him injured? He and Rick will figure things it. We don't even know 100% who is the best frontcourt partner for KP. Pre-injury the thought was Powell but then we saw a lot of problems with that. Post-injury I thought KP looked amazing and much more involved in the offense as the center. Will Rick go back to that? I have thought now for months he absolutely would but you never know. We won't know for sure until he is back but an early indicator might be whether or not we see Powell in the starting lineup. Rick has been vocal saying he likes Maxi off the bench so if he starts WCS and says the same about Powell then we will know Powell we not be a starter again.

Good stuff. All valid and very reasonable.

[ItsGoTime]

You might be absolutely right about the above. You are definitely right about the "staying on the court" part, and while I'm not as worried about his health (in a vacuum) as others, it does have an effect on how quickly the team learns to maximize his skills, and how quickly he and Luka learn to play together, so that's a good point. 

A lot of this debate, imo, depends on how the Mavs see the front court rotation. Unfortunately, KP is out to start the season, so we won't know right away, but in my opinion, if the Mavs STILL think the best way to utilize him is as a third option SPACER while Luka and Powell run the action together...if that's the case, that will tell me a lot about how Carlisle views Porzingis. He's a GREAT shooter, and that's a valuable role, but I don't know if I can buy it. Seems like a waste. 


Who knows, maybe there are layers to that stuff they didn't even get to last year where those actions develop into high-post face up touches for KP. I'm ready for ANYTHING, it's just that, like I keep saying, I was underwhelmed with what we actually saw last season. He's obviously a GREAT finisher of plays, both in the paint on those rolls or cuts and by shooting off of the catch.

I just really believe that the team needs more offensive creation. Richardson will help a bit in that department, but not in the kind of meaningful way I'm hoping to see (I don't think). This whole KP debate, for me, is about whether or not he's going to get in the way of adding that. Right now, he is not preventing it, but as you keep saying, they haven't successfully identified their guy yet, or gotten him to say "yes." If they don't complete that mission before the end of next summer, I believe that it will get much harder to do so, because of KP and his contract. That's all I'm saying. 

For someone like you, who believes Luka/KP are enough, this is no big deal, and I can see how you might be annoyed at how the Mavs are approaching things. For someone like me, who does NOT, it's almost like I can't even let myself start hoping for success until they get that guy. So, the approach has become my favorite team storyline, in a way. 

I think I’m finally getting your point of view. We don’t have to agree, but I can see where you’re coming from and appreciate that stance for what it is at least.

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Also...
PLAN POWDER!!!

[ClutchDirk]

Hey Killer...is this the thread?...

[Kammrath]

THREAD IS NOW OPEN TO ALL.

Must have gotten accidentally locked as the mods/admins were exploring stuff.

Sorry @"DanSchwartzman"

[embellisher]

@"KillerLeft"

Who is "the guy", or who are potential "the guy"s in your opinion?

[KillerLeft]

@"KillerLeft"

Who is "the guy", or who are potential "the guy"s in your opinion?

Well, that's the thing. I don't know. 

But, it doesn't bother me that I don't know. I know this drives others crazy, and I get it, but it doesn't bother me. If you would have told me a year ago that going into this season we'd be pretty sure Houston was about to trade Harden, I'd have laughed for 15 minutes straight. The point is that things change really quickly in this league.

[dirkfansince1998]

Just a quick thought...

THJs caphold 28.5 mio
THJ resigning for 3/40-3/45 would be 12-15 mio vs the salary cap instead

Richardsons caphold if he opts out 17.5 mio

Johnson expiring 16 mio
Powell this year 10.2 mio

With both outgoing the Mavs could absorb 31.2 mio in salary. If they absorb less they could still use the full MLE and stay under the luxury tax line
With Johnson outgoing the Mavs could absorb 19 mio in a trade. Same case when it comes to the MLE and luxury tax.

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With smart asset management the Mavs could keep both THJ and Richardson, add another starter and still use the full MLE

[KillerLeft]

Just a quick thought...

THJs caphold 28.5 mio
THJ resigning for 3/40-3/45 would be 12-15 mio vs the salary cap instead

Richardsons caphold if he opts out 17.5 mio

Johnson expiring 16 mio
Powell this year 10.2 mio

With both outgoing the Mavs could absorb 31.2 mio in salary. If they absorb less they could still use the full MLE and stay under the luxury tax line
With Johnson outgoing the Mavs could absorb 19 mio in a trade. Same case when it comes to the MLE and luxury tax.

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With smart asset management the Mavs could keep both THJ and Richardson, add another starter and still use the full MLE

Boom! Good stuff.

[ItsGoTime]

With smart asset management the Mavs could keep both THJ and Richardson, add another starter and still use the full MLE

I still would like a defensive upgrade to THJ on this team. Seems his presence on this team requires him to be a starter and I don't think he's the right guy for a starting job. If he could figure out how to be an amazing 6th man, I think that suits him best. Don't mind a 6th man of the year candidate every year being paid in the $12-15M range.

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With Johnson outgoing the Mavs could absorb 19 mio in a trade. Same case when it comes to the MLE and luxury tax.

What if Johnson is signed to the MLE (or less)? If he fits the team (we'll see this year), I think he's a great MLE target.

[dirkfansince1998]

I still would like a defensive upgrade to THJ on this team. Seems his presence on this team requires him to be a starter and I don't think he's the right guy for a starting job. If he could figure out how to be an amazing 6th man, I think that suits him best. Don't mind a 6th man of the year candidate every year being paid in the $12-15M range.

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What if Johnson is signed to the MLE (or less)? If he fits the team (we'll see this year), I think he's a great MLE target.

His expiring is by far the best asset to match salaries in any trade. I also don´t see him as a MLE level player. He is overpaid right now. If the Mavs really want to keep him I would think about the BAE. Mavs could obviously also make a Devin Harris like move . Trade Johnson in january or february and resign him in the offseason. Obviously only works if he likes Dallas and wants to be a part of team in the next few seasons.

With the amount of talent and prospects that probably won´t be part of the rotation the Mavs will need to let some of the guys go.

[loki]

I still would like a defensive upgrade to THJ on this team. Seems his presence on this team requires him to be a starter and I don't think he's the right guy for a starting job. If he could figure out how to be an amazing 6th man, I think that suits him best. Don't mind a 6th man of the year candidate every year being paid in the $12-15M range.

I agree with a lot of that, but without THJ the starting lineup's 3pt shooting is looking a little sketchy. If they could find a starting PF who is a plus perimeter defender it might help cover up for THJ's weaknesses.

[Scott41theMavs]

I still would like a defensive upgrade to THJ on this team. Seems his presence on this team requires him to be a starter and I don't think he's the right guy for a starting job. If he could figure out how to be an amazing 6th man, I think that suits him best. Don't mind a 6th man of the year candidate every year being paid in the $12-15M range.

I agree with a lot of that, but without THJ the starting lineup's 3pt shooting is looking a little sketchy. If they could find a starting PF who is a plus perimeter defender it might help cover up for THJ's weaknesses.

Or, they could trade THJ for OPJ and have both the 3 and the D.

[loki]

Or, they could trade THJ for OPJ and have both the 3 and the D.

Maybe if he's healthy. Assuming he is and he still plays tough D, which I don't think is guaranteed, I'm pretty confident that Dallas would have no chance to get him with THJ. The last thing Chicago needs is to make a lateral move for another guard. If you try to expand it to a three team trade, the third team will always prefer to take OPJ.

Expirings+rookies+2nd rounders has a better shot if one of Green/Terry/Bey sets the world on fire.

[KillerLeft]

I'm standing firm on THJ island. 

He's gotta be near that 40% mark on his 3pt shooting again (he was 42.1% off the catch last year) for them to make the playoffs, and I think he will be. 

I hope he earns a good deal, and I don't think it would be the end of the world for it to be a Mavericks deal.

[ItsGoTime]

Or, they could trade THJ for OPJ and have both the 3 and the D.

Yep, I still like that swap, but it isn't a 1 for 1 swap. We need to add $4.67M in salary to get to OPJ.

[SleepingHero]

I'm standing firm on THJ island. 

He's gotta be near that 40% mark on his 3pt shooting again (he was 42.1% off the catch last year) for them to make the playoffs, and I think he will be. 

I hope he earns a good deal, and I don't think it would be the end of the world for it to be a Mavericks deal.

One of the biggest things I'm afraid of is a THJ regression to the mean. By all accounts last year for him was an outlier. He regressed heavily (39.8% reg season-> 32.8/35.2 in the bubble/playoffs) during the Bubble AND playoffs. Sure 14 game sample size is small (still 17% of the regular season), but it's something everyone should keep in the back of our minds.

EDIT: Just to dive a little further, on catch-and shoot in the bubble, THJ was 33.3% on 3's, shooting nearly 7 a game. In the playoffs, his catch and shoot 3 mark was more comforting, a great 40%. In both cases his pull-up shot tanked his overall stats (31% bubble, 26% playoffs).

[Branduil]

1. Johnson + Brunson for Aaron Gordon.

2. THJ + DFS for OPJ.

[omahen]

Or, they could trade THJ for OPJ and have both the 3 and the D.

I don't think a trade is realistic. Chicago is clearly taking a careful approach and will probably not make any moves before TDL. At that point:
- OPJ is playing good and Chicago will not want to trade him (or his price will be high)
- OPJ is playing bad and we will not want to trade for him anyway.

I think the only realistic option for OPJ is free agency

[Branduil]

I don't think a trade is realistic. Chicago is clearly taking a careful approach and will probably not make any moves before TDL. At that point:
- OPJ is playing good and Chicago will not want to trade him (or his price will be high)
- OPJ is playing bad and we will not want to trade for him anyway.

I think the only realistic option for OPJ is free agency

I think what you're missing is the very real possibility where OPJ is playing well, but the Bulls are awful again. In that scenario they'd fear losing him for nothing in the offseason, but it would also be hard to sell him for an exceptionally high price when he's a free agent next year. Their options would be limited to good teams he'd be likely to re-sign with.