The Rotation (2020-2021)

[StepBackJay]

You make a good point ab DFS/Powell combo probably not working well. I know Rick played DFS/Maxi in the playoffs so you might see that or Maxi/Powell or Johnson or WCS, the possibilities are endless!

My preferred KP-less lineup would be Luka, J Rich, THJ, Johnson, WCS as you mentioned or any starting lineup with Johnson in it at the 4 bc I think he's a great option in the Mavs offense. I like keeping Maxi and Powell together off the bench as possible since they play so well together.

[Jason Terry]

I kinda see Johnson in the DeShawn Stevenson role of 2011.  He started almost every game he played but only played 16 minutes a game.  He brought a certain tone that we know’s been missing.  Johnson might be that guy but at the 4 spot.  He’s also played a ton with Richardson, so that could be beneficial out the gate.  (That’s an interesting study by the way, but a clear picture emerged to me of how those 2 fit really well.)

The 5 may be a matchup decision game by game until KP is back. Or, who knows, maybe Dwight will surprise us all.  KP will be rested a ton, too, so finding that right 4/5 mix pretty quick would be nice.

The closing lineup concerns me most.  If that gets fixed.....we will be a really happy bunch.

^yes, good points

Guys/gals, i think it’s time to let the dogs out and roam around without a leash 

Luka/Hardaway had great chemistry. Richardson/Johnson have history of playing together. Put Maxi with these 4 until KP comes back. Even if it’s more in name only and there’s several other types of lineup configurations. Really like the idea of setting a defensive tone to the game early with this group. 

As an added bonus the bench 3-4-5 combo of DFS-DP-Maxi have great chemistry as well. Seems like all 3 would thrive against 2nd units.

[KillerLeft]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/12/1/...richardson

[Kammrath]

I just posted that Ringer piece in the Mavs news thread pulling out a lot of good quotes. 

He seems to think DFS will still start. He may very well be right. But I will continue to maintain that DFS has NOT done well at the 4 on either end. If that can change because JRich changes all the dynamics (which is possible) then GREAT. 

It will be fun to see how RC tries things out.

I am still in the "two big" camp until proved that the Mavs personnel can make it happen differently.

[KillerLeft]

I am still in the "two big" camp until proved that the Mavs personnel can make it happen differently.

You might be right, but to me it's a semantic point, mostly. 

There's enough of a tangible difference between a Dwight Powell and a Jerami Grant (these are just place holding examples) that one could argue that they're two different types of players. However, they are far enough towards the edges of their respective types that there's quite a bit of overlap in how they'd plug into the 4 spot with all other variables remaining the same. 

Just as DFS might not be far enough towards the "like a big" end of the wing/forward spectrum to be ideal, I'd posit that neither Gobert nor KP is far enough towards the "like a wing/forward" end of the big spectrum to fit together, either. So, while I am very much in agreement that the numbers you've offered point to a need for us to think hard about which player best serves the Mavs at the 4 spot, I don't see any correlation whatsoever between positive results achieved by KP/DP and the idea that Gobert/KP would work.

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I CAN see your evidence as an argument that Powell (if he is somehow still the same player), Kleber or Johnson are better choices than DFS for that spot, which has me backing through some of the opinions I offered in my long post a few pages back.

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WCS, to me, is the variable we should watch. 

IF Carlisle believes Gobert/KP would work, and IF WCS plays up to Carlisles standards (both huge ifs) then we will probably see WCS play some time with KP this season. In theory, WCS is the type of big that could work in much the same way with KP as Gobert (allowing for the obvious fact that WCS is simply not as good as Gobert), but I just don't expect that pairing to be given much of a shot. 

I think WCS is a fit with Kleber, and maybe with Johnson (if Johnson is shooting well enough early season) but not with KP.

[Kammrath]

I don't see any correlation whatsoever between positive results achieved by KP/DP and the idea that Gobert/KP would work

And we will disagree there. But that's ok.

Gobert is offensively what DP is....so that is a simple correlation (and my major point of connection with the two).

And defensively they are very different and I am not making a comparison, other than KP has historically done much better defensively when paired with someone else 6'10" or bigger (DP included). Heck KP was solid defensively with KANTER....ENES KANTER for crying outloud. And Gobert is light years better as a defensive big.

[fifteenth]

Riffing off the above, we all wanted a "big wing" this offseason. I'm probably just restating what you guys already said, but maybe the Mavs view James, Maxi and Powell as big wings or almost big wings. 

Those ARE the droids you've been looking for.

[KillerLeft]

Gobert is offensively what DP is....so that is a simple correlation (and my major point of connection with the two).

And defensively they are very different and I am not making a comparison, other than KP has historically done much better defensively when paired with someone else 6'10" or bigger (DP included). Heck KP was solid defensively with KANTER....ENES KANTER for crying outloud.

Ok, offensively, I'm with you. In a world where you decide you WANT a different player directly involved in the offensive action as screener, with KP spacing, then yes - Gobert/Powell function exactly the same. I'd say Powell is better at this, but Gobert is certainly good enough. EDIT: (Or maybe the better way of phrasing this is that young KP could do those things better with Kanter than older KP could do them with Gobert). 

And, good to know you see the difference defensively. I don't think we're that far off. When comparing two players who can run, move their feet, switch onto ball-handlers off of screens, play help defense in the paint and then quickly recover to a shooter in the corner, etc, etc (all the good stuff)...give me the bigger, stronger, longer one, for sure. 

But...

And Gobert is light years better as a defensive big.

This is just it...some of this might just be a semantic difference in how we're using the word "big," but I have no trouble with the idea that Kanter is more capable of performing the modern 4 role that I'm envisioning than Gobert, even though Gobert is clearly the better defensive presence in a vacuum.

In your dream scenario, Gobert would definitely be the 5 on defense and KP the 4. I just can't close my eyes and picture KP performing the list of tasks I mentioned earlier (move their feet, switch onto ball-handlers off of screens, play help defense in the paint and then quickly recover to a shooter in the corner, etc, etc) to a winning level. Maybe I'm wrong. 

[StepBackJay]

I don't see any correlation whatsoever between positive results achieved by KP/DP and the idea that Gobert/KP would work

And we will disagree there. But that's ok.

Gobert is offensively what DP is....so that is a simple correlation (and my major point of connection with the two).

And defensively they are very different and I am not making a comparison, other than KP has historically done much better defensively when paired with someone else 6'10" or bigger (DP included). Heck KP was solid defensively with KANTER....ENES KANTER for crying outloud. And Gobert is light years better as a defensive big.

We are referencing Kanter years? Those days are long gone. Different team, system, roster. Mavs expressed from day 1 that they wanted to make KP a center. There is zero chance they are ever going to pair him with a traditional center, even one as good as Gobert. Powell at least is thought of as one who can chase guys around the perimeter, being he is a 4/5 hybrid. Powell's issue unless Maxi and many other guys is that he has no reliable outside shot. If Powell could shoot like Maxi he would probably be in the starting lineup for sure (altho I think his defense is still mediocre or average at best).

[KillerLeft]

...maybe the Mavs view James, Maxi and Powell as big wings or almost big wings. 

[DanSchwartzgan]

maybe the Mavs view James, Maxi and Powell as big wings or almost big wings. 

I like the direction this conversation has turned (once everyone agreed that Powell would eventually start next to KP  ).

The way I look at this is there are two offensive roles for “bigs” and two defensive roles.  Offensively, it is critical to the O we run for someone to be great at setting picks and doing something useful afterwards.  The other big has to be able to spread the floor.  Note that it isn’t critical that two “bigs” spread the floor.  There are other ways for for that 5th player to be useful on dive cuts and secondary PnR’s without hindering KP’s game.  About 3/4’s of the league will start the game with at least one non-three-point threat and very few have a big as offensively diverse as KP.  

Defensively, there has to be a rim protector and there has to be someone who can defend the perimeter.  There are lots of mix and match opportunities with and without KP.  In fact, the only limitations revolve around Powell.  He can’t pair with a non-three-point shooter and he can’t pair with a non-rim-protector.  That doesn’t mean you can’t play him.  Pre-injury Powell was elite at certain things.  It just means you have to be mindful about who he is paired with.  But, there is a ton of front-court flexibility. A swing factor is what version of WCS shows up.  I was hopeful until we tried to bring in Gasol.  We’ve heard WCS is working on 3’s.  He’s got the ability to guard the perimeter when dialed in.  He’s got a REALLY good opportunity here.  I have no idea whether he will take advantage.    

I certainly think DFS “can” get some time at PF, but I don’t think it will be widely used.  When everyone is healthy we have five useful bigs (real bigs) in KP, WCS, Maxi, Powell and Johnson (and I’m not even counting Boban).  In fact, I see Johnson’s main benefit being he pushes DFS more toward the wing position.  The babies aren’t going to get much PT.  With five bigs rotating, I see DFS rotating with JRich and THJ at the wing.  THJ can play either position and Burke will get some time at SG (probably next to Luka with DFS playing wing alongside a couple of bigs).  Who knows what Carlisle will do until KP returns, but my view of the main rotation looks like this:

Bigs:  KP/Maxi/Powell/WCS/Johnson
Wings: THJ/JRich/DFS/Burke
Ball Handlers:  Luka/Brunson

Deep Bench:  Boban/Bey/Iwundu/Green/Tyler

[dirkfansince1998]

Now I am just waiting for RC to go small. Luka with two out of Burke/Brunson/Terry. Can already imagine the outrage.

[Mavsfan12]

The performance of WCS, and RC's trust in him will ultimately determine this rotation - before and after KP.  He has the skillset and ability to be exactly what this team needs in a post-DP-injury roster.  If he has his motor revving, he is potentially better in all aspects of the game to DP.  As Dan said, he has an amazing opportunity before him - will this be his year?  If he can't make it given the absolutely perfect opportunity he has been placed in, he is never going to get it.  I am rooting for the guy because he is one of the handful of guys I feel can fill that role for this team and I believe in his talent.  

That said, Noel's talent was a nice fit too, but he was an idiot.  WCS's game is everything we hoped DP could be for this team.  Can he back it with DP's motor?  That will determine it, IMO.

[StepBackJay]

This Gobert, KP combo is pure madness, madness I say. You want to talk ab zigging while everyone is zagging lol. It's not going to happen, ever. Those two will not be on a Mavs team.

[Jason Terry]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/12/1/...richardson

Everyone needs to read the ringer article. 

IMO, people need to start thinking of Luka in terms of Lebron. Is Lebron a 4? No. He’s a 1 just like Luka that gives you a special advantage. Caruso, KCP, DG, Lebron, AD is no bigger than JRich, THj, Luka, DFS, KP 

We have never ran out a lineup like that in the RC era because we’ve never had the personnel until now. Richardson is an absolute game changer

[Dahlsim]

Bradley/Tacko/Bol/KP/Boban. 

All BIGS!!! 

[fifteenth]

Burke will get some time at SG (probably next to Luka

good stuff Dan

Why do you think Burke will play with Luka? I was thinking JRich would play with Luka and Burke would play with Brunson.

[Jason Terry]

maybe the Mavs view James, Maxi and Powell as big wings or almost big wings. 

I like the direction this conversation has turned (once everyone agreed that Powell would eventually start next to KP  ).

The way I look at this is there are two offensive roles for “bigs” and two defensive roles.  Offensively, it is critical to the O we run for someone to be great at setting picks and doing something useful afterwards.  The other big has to be able to spread the floor.  Note that it isn’t critical that two “bigs” spread the floor.  There are other ways for for that 5th player to be useful on dive cuts and secondary PnR’s without hindering KP’s game.  About 3/4’s of the league will start the game with at least one non-three-point threat and very few have a big as offensively diverse as KP.  

Defensively, there has to be a rim protector and there has to be someone who can defend the perimeter.  There are lots of mix and match opportunities with and without KP.  In fact, the only limitations revolve around Powell.  He can’t pair with a non-three-point shooter and he can’t pair with a non-rim-protector.  That doesn’t mean you can’t play him.  Pre-injury Powell was elite at certain things.  It just means you have to be mindful about who he is paired with.  But, there is a ton of front-court flexibility. A swing factor is what version of WCS shows up.  I was hopeful until we tried to bring in Gasol.  We’ve heard WCS is working on 3’s.  He’s got the ability to guard the perimeter when dialed in.  He’s got a REALLY good opportunity here.  I have no idea whether he will take advantage.    

I certainly think DFS “can” get some time at PF, but I don’t think it will be widely used.  When everyone is healthy we have five useful bigs (real bigs) in KP, WCS, Maxi, Powell and Johnson (and I’m not even counting Boban).  In fact, I see Johnson’s main benefit being he pushes DFS more toward the wing position.  The babies aren’t going to get much PT.  With five bigs rotating, I see DFS rotating with JRich and THJ at the wing.  THJ can play either position and Burke will get some time at SG (probably next to Luka with DFS playing wing alongside a couple of bigs).  Who knows what Carlisle will do until KP returns, but my view of the main rotation looks like this:

Bigs:  KP/Maxi/Powell/WCS/Johnson
Wings: THJ/JRich/DFS/Burke
Ball Handlers:  Luka/Brunson

Deep Bench:  Boban/Bey/Iwundu/Green/Tyler

What you describe seems like the regular season plan. It’s a long season and we are a deep team. Of course there will be two bigs doing exactly the duties you describe. We will spread out the responsibilities and minimize burden on our stars. We will be a top seed assuming health and that will be that. 

What will happen in the playoffs when it matters is a different. KP can deliver everything needed all in one package. He can rim protect and screen and roll and pick and pop. Everything else described in your post about what we need a big to do could be had in DFS. Luka/Rich/THj/DFS/KP could be more of a close out lineup. One where Rick just throws out our 5 best players and says you can’t stop us and we will shut you down

[SleepingHero]

All BIGS!!! 

If the average height for my starting lineup isn't 7'4 then I don't even want to play basketball.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Burke will get some time at SG (probably next to Luka

good stuff Dan

Why do you think Burke will play with Luka? I was thinking JRich would play with Luka and Burke would play with Brunson.

JRich definitely will play with Luka as part of the starting lineup.  When I talk about Burke/Luka I'm talking about the Luka w/o KP bench time.  Last year Luka tended to go out and when he came back he played largely with the subs.  KP tended to play with several starters while Luka was out.  You can look at the KP/Brunson numbers to see that worked pretty well.

If we are emphasizing "D", Burke probably can't play much with a fellow small (I realize Burke plus Curry worked well in a small sample in the bubble).  I'm envisioning Burke next to Luka looking a lot like it did in the bubble.  You'll have DFS to defend the primary ball handler and probably Maxi plus one more guy (either a shooter or a rim runner).  Burke thrives on space, but it can be vertical or horizontal space.  So, Luka/Burke/DFS/Maxi plus someone on the W/O KP squad and Brunson/THJ/KP plus two someones on the W/O Luka squad.  I think WCS is DNP some nights and potential starter some nights to manage load for KP and maybe Powell.

We've got 72 games for Rick to figure out what works and what doesn't.  I can't wait to see how it plays out.  My guess is the playoff lineup narrows to 3 ball handlers (Luka, Brunson and a little Burke), three wings (RJich, THJ and DFS) and 3 bigs (KP, Maxi and TBD).  Of course, by the time the playoffs get here, we may have consolidated a couple of role players into one player who isn't here yet.