The Rotation (2020-2021)

[chaparral]

I loved Killer’s long write-up.

Something I saw on another site that I’ll add to the discussion because I haven’t seen it here.  Johnson will probably have a bigger role than we anticipate.  He’s almost exclusively a PF and has been bench/occasional starter for the last several years.

Why am I focusing on Johnson?  Because it appears they went out of their way to get him.  The deal with Detroit could have simply been Wright for Ariza.  Ariza is useful and expiring.  Dallas could have stopped there, but did Ariza + Jackson plus minor draft compensation to get Johnson.  My read on that is Johnson will be the primary bench PF.  He’s good at the PnR and PnPop.  

I think if Powell is healthy he will return to his starting role.  I don’t know if he’s a C or a PF, but it doesn’t really matter.  He’s a big and a vertical spacer who is a PnR savant.  I see Maxi and Johnson playing the KP/Powell roles off the bench.  As Kamm said, WCS will be DNP some nights and starter in place of KP some nights in order to maintain the rest of the rotation.   DFS, Burke and Brunson will join Maxi and Johnson as the primary bench and the rookies will be used sparingly.  

Carlisle doesn’t run lines.  He runs starters for each quarter and a KP w/o Luka grouping and a Luka w/o KP grouping.  The key to understanding “the bench” is understanding who will play alongside KP and Brunson in the w/o Luka line and who will play with Luka, Powell and Burke in the w/o KP line.  Popcornmachine.net is a really good site to monitor this from game to game.  My guess is Luka gets Burke/DFS/Maxi and Powell while KP gets Johnson/THJ/JRich and Brunson.  Closing lineups tend to be matchup driven depending on what we need on the floor defensively.

Thanks for the web site info.

"He faked him into the popcorn machine...
he's got salt and butter all over him"
-Chick Hearn

[KillerLeft]

I think if Powell is healthy he will return to his starting role.  I don’t know if he’s a C or a PF, but it doesn’t really matter.  He’s a big and a vertical spacer who is a PnR savant.  I see Maxi and Johnson playing the KP/Powell roles off the bench. 

This makes a ton of sense, actually.

[KillerLeft]

So, @"DanSchwartzman": in a world where Powell is still Powell this season, let's temporarily assume you're correct about Powell/KP starting together. 

Who starts games on the bench, THJ or DFS?

[StepBackJay]

I think if Powell is healthy he will return to his starting role.  I don’t know if he’s a C or a PF, but it doesn’t really matter.  He’s a big and a vertical spacer who is a PnR savant.  I see Maxi and Johnson playing the KP/Powell roles off the bench. 

This makes a ton of sense, actually.

I can't disagree with this more. Did you not see what happened to KPs game after Powell went down? They aren't going back to KP/Powell.

[fifteenth]

I can't disagree with this more. Did you not see what happened to KPs game after Powell went down? They aren't going back to KP/Powell.

I expect them to try DP/KP again. There were factors involved in KP's slow start other than just playing with DP. So that you can't conclude definitively that it was them playing together.

[Kammrath]

I expect them to try DP/KP again. There were factors involved in KP's slow start other than just playing with DP. So that you can't conclude definitively that it was them playing together.

AND there are TWO sides of the ball. KP was BETTER defensively for this team WITH DP. 

I don't know why we only look at KP's offensive performance personally and fail to take into account the team aspects like defense.

[KillerLeft]

I expect them to try DP/KP again. There were factors involved in KP's slow start other than just playing with DP. So that you can't conclude definitively that it was them playing together.

AND there are TWO sides of the ball. KP was BETTER defensively for this team WITH DP. 

I don't know why we only look at KP's offensive performance personally and fail to take into account the team aspects like defense.

Yeah, yeah...but seriously, who goes to the bench, DFS, or THJ?

[Kammrath]

Yeah, yeah...but seriously, who goes to the bench, DFS, or THJ?

DFS. 

KP+DFS has not performed well (comparatively).

[KillerLeft]

DFS. 

KP+DFS has not performed well (comparatively).

Hmmm...

Ok, follow up question: You say KP is better defensively with Powell...OK. But, KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka was the foundation of the defense that finished 18th, correct? Is switching out DFS for Richardson REALLY going to make a major difference? 

Gotta say, my house of cards is wobbling, if this is all true. I was pretty excited to see DFS and Richardson on the court TOGETHER.

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I think I might just email coach Carlisle and suggest that he NOT consider Powell a starter this year. I don't often take advantage of his contact details...you know, because I don't like to bother him. The only time I did so last year was when I texted him enough over the course of one long weekend to thoroughly convince him not to overuse Boban.

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SOMEONE MAKE THIS ALL MAKE SENSE

[StepBackJay]

I can't disagree with this more. Did you not see what happened to KPs game after Powell went down? They aren't going back to KP/Powell.

I expect them to try DP/KP again. There were factors involved in KP's slow start other than just playing with DP. So that you can't conclude definitively that it was them playing together.

I don't think they will. We didn't see Rick play KP with another non shooting big all season except once he started Boban with KP. Rick could have started WCS with KP but didn't. Now Powell can presumably rotate to the perimeter better than a more traditional big but I think offensively Rick doesn't want to mess with what works. Rick didn't even try to start MKG, another big that can't shoot next to KP. Rick has embraced the modern NBA. He loves small ball and KP + some of the other guys we have (Maxi,. Johnson) let you play smallish without really giving up much.

I don't see why he would take post Achilles Powell and stick him back with KP, ever. Powell pre achilles was still doing a lot of triple single stay lines. He lookes good in the PNR with Luka but he can do that off the bench. I don't expect to see Powell and KP starting again. That would keep KP out on the perimeter and he's too good to just be a stretch big.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think they will. We didn't see Rick play KP with another non shooting big all season except once he started Boban with KP. Rick could have started WCS with KP but didn't. Now Powell can presumably rotate to the perimeter better than a more traditional big but I think offensively Rick doesn't want to mess with what works. Rick didn't even try to start MKG, another big that can't shoot next to KP. Rick has embraced the modern NBA. He loves small ball and KP + some of the other guys we have (Maxi,. Johnson) let you play smallish without really giving up much.

I don't see why he would take post Achilles Powell and stick him back with KP, ever. Powell pre achilles was still doing a lot of triple single stay lines. He lookes good in the PNR with Luka but he can do that off the bench. I don't expect to see Powell and KP starting again. That would keep KP out on the perimeter and he's too good to just be a stretch big.

BTW, one of the things coach Carlisle always asks me when I bother him is "who is that guy who's always calling me Rick?" I don't think he likes it very much. Just a friendly FYI.

[StepBackJay]

I expect them to try DP/KP again. There were factors involved in KP's slow start other than just playing with DP. So that you can't conclude definitively that it was them playing together.

AND there are TWO sides of the ball. KP was BETTER defensively for this team WITH DP. 

I don't know why we only look at KP's offensive performance personally and fail to take into account the team aspects like defense.

Yeah, yeah...but seriously, who goes to the bench, DFS, or THJ?

I don't see THJ or DFS going to the bench unless Rick decides to start Maxi or Johnson besides KP in the front court which would push DFS to the bench. THJ definitely produces better in the starting lineup so I don't see that changing. I like DFS but he struggles guarding some bigger 4s. I hope that Rick will at least do some situational starts based on matchups.

With KP out and Powell coming back from injury I would be really surprised to see Powell in the starting lineup. Maxi to me would be likely one of the bigs in the starting lineup, but the other spot is a mystery. I am thinking maybe WCS bc that's why you have him here. He could be the 5 while KP is out. Rick also loves to go small. He could opt for another guard in the starting lineup like he did in the playoffs but I don't think he will.

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I don't think they will. We didn't see Rick play KP with another non shooting big all season except once he started Boban with KP. Rick could have started WCS with KP but didn't. Now Powell can presumably rotate to the perimeter better than a more traditional big but I think offensively Rick doesn't want to mess with what works. Rick didn't even try to start MKG, another big that can't shoot next to KP. Rick has embraced the modern NBA. He loves small ball and KP + some of the other guys we have (Maxi,. Johnson) let you play smallish without really giving up much.

I don't see why he would take post Achilles Powell and stick him back with KP, ever. Powell pre achilles was still doing a lot of triple single stay lines. He lookes good in the PNR with Luka but he can do that off the bench. I don't expect to see Powell and KP starting again. That would keep KP out on the perimeter and he's too good to just be a stretch big.

BTW, one of the things coach Carlisle always asks me when I bother him is "who is that guy who's always calling me Rick?" I don't think he likes it very much. Just a friendly FYI.

I am sure Rick reads a lot fan forums. Hi Uncle Ricky, please don't start Powell ever if you are reading this!

[KillerLeft]

Well, on the bright side, it didn't take us very long to identify this season's third rail issue. Better still, with KP out for a while and Powell's status a mystery, I'm sure it will be months before we have enough info to settle it. We should get pages and pages worth of pointless arguments out of this one.

[dirkfansince1998]

I feel like a broken record but can we at least watch a preseason game before we act like Powell is still the same player he was prior to the injury.

[KillerLeft]

I feel like a broken record but can we at least watch a preseason game before we act like Powell is still the same player he was prior to the injury.

NO!!!

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The truth is that THE GREAT COACH CARLISLE (whose first name I know but of course won't use here, bc respect) is a genius, and he will undoubtedly reveal numerous rotation wrinkles over the course of the coming season that we mere basketball observers can't foresee, no matter how meticulously we ply our devotion.

[Kammrath]

KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka

This was a GOOD lineup.

But the best lineup of the year (with significant minutes) was:

Luka/THJ/ DFS/DP/Kleber

Offense: 128.3 
Defense: 93.5 
Net: +34.8


And my strong opinion from looking at lots of lineups:

DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

[KillerLeft]

DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

Yeah, I can buy the above. Kind of puts THJ's role in more jeopardy than I thought, if the Mavs see what you see. I agree that DFS is more 3 than a 4, for sure. 

I wonder if Kleber or Johnson might get DFS's spot if/when Powell goes how @"dirkfansince1998" thinks he will. That would keep THJ in the starting lineup but still feature TWO plus defenders.

[dirkfansince1998]

@"Kammrath"

Right now I am not as concerned about the regular season lineup data.

Doncic-THJ-DFS-Maxi-KP rarely played together in the regular season. They were -11.6 in 90 minutes.
Against the Clippers the same five was the 2nd most used lineup. They were +7.1 in 33 minutes.

It was already pointed out that depending on the matchup the rotation (including the starting five) will change from game to game but against the really good teams a 5-out offense with versatile defenders is probably the best option.

[Jason Terry]

KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka

This was a GOOD lineup.

But the best lineup of the year (with significant minutes) was:

Luka/THJ/ DFS/DP/Kleber

Offense: 128.3 
Defense: 93.5 
Net: +34.8


And my strong opinion from looking at lots of lineups:

DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

I don’t see how we have enough info to make the statement in bold. Rick will try out all different kinds of combinations to see what works best. Pre-KP i think we put our 5 best players out there. I’m expecting:
Luka 
Richardson 
THj
DFS
Maxi

[dirkfansince1998]

KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka

This was a GOOD lineup.

But the best lineup of the year (with significant minutes) was:

Luka/THJ/ DFS/DP/Kleber

Offense: 128.3 
Defense: 93.5 
Net: +34.8


And my strong opinion from looking at lots of lineups:

DFS needs to play alongside two bigs to be most effective. The Mavs are NOT at their best with him at PF/4.

Maybe this is why the Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for Johnson and wanted Gallinari so bad. They know that DFS is NOT a PF/4 and cannot play heavy minutes there. And KP is out to start....and DP is a question mark.

Notice that both bigman are able to defend on the perimeter. The DP/Kleber combination has been among the best in the league in the last few seasons but last season the lineup numbers are heavily impacted by KPs slow start. The starting five really struggled and KP had terrible +/- numbers. After the Powell injury and with an improving KP things changed. KP turned into the +/- leader of the team.