The Rotation (2020-2021)

[fifteenth]

Can only hope that you are right. Healthy Powell would be really helpful. I would love to reunite the best bench duo in the league. Maxi and Dwight always were at their best when they shared the floor.

I'm with you on the Maxi/DP combo off the bench

[cow]

I love Dwight Powell. I love high character guys who give back to their communities. I love afterthoughts who earn their place through dedication and hard work. I love athletes who aren't the most gifted but maximize their potential. I love that he's the torch bearer for the culture that Dirk helped build. I hate how negative people were about his contract extension how they leveraged his injury as an "I-told-you-so". But I think everyone needs to keep their expectations in check.

His injury occurred on January 26th. By the time the season roles around he'll be at the 11 month period of his recovery which is the "normal' recovery time for athletes. That injury occurs about once a year in the NBA. The only person who ever came back better and looked to have the same explosion as before is one of the most genetically gifted athletes basketball has ever seen. All hail Dominique. So who do you think would be next on the list of successful recoveries? Kobe was okay but most of his elite athleticism was gone by the time the injury occurred and he relied on skill and know-how. That's probably good news for Durant and Klay. I'd argue it was our own (Portland's own?) Wes Matthews. He'd certainly lost some of his athleticism but he came back fairly quick and was able to play heavy minutes and has continued to do so for years post-injury. If you want to get depressed, look at some of the other names on the ruptured achilles list.

The bad news for Powell is his elite talent on the court was leaping and finishing. It's hard to imagine that will be the same and his appreciable skills beyond that are modest. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, but I think the odds are stacked against him on being a reliable part of the rotation this year and maybe beyond.

The good news for Powell:

-Maybe he has the same springs as Dominique that let him come back so successfully (or hopefully the same luck)
-No one is going to work harder than Dwight Powell
-Mavs have one of if not the best medical staff in the NBA
-Maybe we are due for another player to buck the odds

[StepBackJay]

For what it's worth Cow, KD is looking pretty good in some of the vids I have seen. Both KD and Powell benefit from a surplus of athleticism.

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Wes Matthews is a hard worker as well and he had zero lateral quickness after the injury.

True. You probably have the pole position on this. But I think Powell is a different kind of athlete. He's plyable and springy, not just a hard worker. And Wes didn't have anything going for him like that Luka/DP pnr

Plus, this team has a lot of newness to incorporate.  Having Powell will be like a blankie for Luka

Wes never had more than average NBA athleticism which is key.

[Drew]

Yeah Richardson is starting. Saying otherwise is just pure MBT hatred spilling out.

Even if he didn’t start to start the season(maybe because he doesn’t know the offense as well as Rick would like) he’ll still get tons of minutes and work his way into the starting lineup.

I don’t think Powell starts at the beginning of the year. But if he’s okay coming off injury he might start some games later. Especially if KP is missing games and sitting on back to backs.

[StepBackJay]

If J Rich is logging enough minutes, I really don't care if he is starting or coming from the bench tbh.

Sure, true. But JRich is a starter here, unless he plays timid like Delon

Not going to happen. J Rich is not timid and he is way better than Delon all the way around. Absent a total disaster or injury J Rich is starting next to Luka and THJ. People on too down on J Rich like he's a spare. He was the big piece in the Butler trade. He didn't do well in Philly bc their coach was terrible. They started Embiid, Horford and Simmons in the same lineup. It's insane. J Rich is going to be to be in a competent offense that will maximize his skills. He does not have to do tons of playmaking thanks to Luka, THJ and eventually KP being in the same offense. He is going to be a great fit.

[KillerLeft]

Not going to try to predict how Carlisle plays this on opening night, because A) there’s a lot of temporary injury concern to navigate and B) we know he’s going to spend the first month (at least) trying every lineup he can think of to see what the analytics shake out for him.

Here’s how I see it working if/when they’re healthy. Note: I’m going to assume Powell is still Powell, even though I admit there’s a good chance he is not. 

OFFENSE:

PG: Luka

WINGS: THJ, Richardson (interchangeable, really, except I expect Richardson to handle the ball more)

FORWARD: DFS (could also be Kleber here, but I bet DFS is the first choice) 

CENTER: KP

The above will be LETHAL, as long as Richardson isn’t scared to shoot like Wright was. 

Same lineup, on DEFENSE:

GUARDS: Richardson, THJ
FORWARDS: Luka, DFS
CENTER: KP

I’m not sure we know yet whether Carlisle believes in switching to the extreme that some other coaches do, but the group above is good enough to experiment with it, imo. Obviously, KP is not switchable at all, but I think (hope) Carlisle can work around that. 

BENCH, in order of approximate importance:

KLEBER is pretty switchable, and I expect him to play a lot of minutes at the 5 this year, especially while KP is down. The best thing about him, though, is that he can play WITH any of the other bigs on the roster. So, he’ll see plenty of time at the 4, too. I think he’ll start some games, and I think he’ll finish some games he doesn’t start. 

BURKE is a bit of a mystery, I think. I imagine some fans believe he will be the 10th or 11th man, but I expect him to be asked to pick up right where he left off against the clippers. I think he will be responsible for most of the bench scoring, and knowing they could get him on this deal made the Mavs feel better about letting Curry go in a trade. Further, while he will never be the shooter Curry is, I fully expect that he will do more for the Mavericks in the “bench scoring” role than Curry did. I think he is more aggressive, less hung up on his percentages, more dynamic and versatile, and I think he fights a lot harder on the defensive end. I actually think HE will finish games sometimes, just as he did against the clippers. Especially if there are injury concerns that pop up for guys like Richardson or THJ. If the Mavericks have anybody involved in the sixth man of the year conversation this season, my guess is that it’s Burke. 

POWELL, I believe, will be given every opportunity to keep a big-minute job on this team, provided he is healthy enough to play at all. We know that Carlisle won’t play him if he is decidedly not effective, but we ALSO know that he will try using Powell in a variety of different ways BEFORE deciding he’s not helping. To that point, I fully expect that we will see more than one game in which he starts next to either KP or Kleber in the two-big system with which they started last season. If that doesn’t stick, I think he will be given first crack at any/all backup center minutes. These backup minutes can still be a big role, since, again, he can remain on the floor and play WITH KP or Kleber when they return. Basically, I am sure that whether they want to start games with two bigs or not, they DEFINITELY want the option of playing that way at times. If Powell isn’t effective enough to be the solution for that, I believe the other choices might be scary for the Mavs. 

This will be a make or brake year for BRUNSON, I believe. If he can more consistently reach what he has flashed as his top level of play, that’s a nice player, imo. I am guessing he is still the guy who will get first crack at being the primary ball handler during the 15 minutes Luka sits, but his chance to remain part of the plan here into the future probably depends on A) staying healthy and B) learning how to flourish off-ball, because on THIS team, your value is mostly determined by how well you can play WITH Luka. I fully expect that we will see Brunson played WITH Burke at times, and somehow, some members of this community will still be surprised, even after all these years of watching Carlisle go to quick lineups to get an edge for stretches. I don’t think Brunson’s role has been usurped by Burke or Terry, but their presence on the roster should communicate to him that he needs to take his game up a notch this season. 

I believe that the ABOVE is what the Mavs are hoping their 9-man playoff rotation becomes, if everything goes according to plan. As we know, things rarely go 100% according to plan for any team, so...

IWUNDU and JOHNSON, I believe, will both be given sporadic chances to integrate themselves into the flow. Minutes wise, I think we’ll see them play the kind of minutes Jackson and Wright played last season. More chances at the beginning, not much time late-season (again, if all goes according to plan). Since neither of them is being heralded in by the owner as the 5th starter, I think both have a chance of being viewed as positive contributors. IWUNDU is decent insurance for DFS and also fits into the small defensive role gap that lives between DFS and Richardson. Johnson, I think, will be a backup to DFS/Kleber at the 4, and might even see some time at the 5 in extreme small situations. I think he’s likely the to get lots of chances to find his footing early in the season while KP and Powell’s situations have Carlisle scrambling a bit. 

It will be interesting to see whether GREEN and TERRY are given the same kind of opportunity as the two players mentioned in the paragraph above, especially since this is a condensed season with no summer league. Essentially, every incoming rookie has put themselves through summer league, but I doubt many of them were able to accomplish what they would’ve accomplished with the help of people employed by their new teams. Long term, I see Green as a guy who guards the same people Richardson guards, but who plays more like DFS on offense.  Terry might be more playable early, since his elite skill (shooting) is more likely to transfer to this level right away. I can’t wait to see what the Mavs’ approach is with these two guys. I think it’s really good that they are not written into the playoff rotation in pen, but I’m hoping we’ll get to see them a little, just to satisfy my own selfish entertainment needs. 

WCS should probably be a bit higher, but I’m not sure where, really. I think he is the most logical solution to replace some of what Powell provides, if/when the team decides Powell can no longer provide it. But, I don’t think we’ll see a scenario where he replaces Powell at the same level of minutes Powell has played in the past. He might start some games at center early, or he might play a fairly prominent bench role early. From there, it’s all up to him, really. Whether you are a fan of his or a hater of his, I anticipate that you will be upset with how he is used. I don’t think either camp will be happy, tbh. My best guess is that he’ll get Boban minutes, only on different nights.

Speaking of BOBAN, I think he will be used exactly the same way he was last year. When Carlisle feels the situation plays to his strengths, I think he will be leaned on quite a bit. But, since most situations don’t, I anticipate another long season of “why doesn’t Carlisle play that guy so we can win?”

I am so, so excited that the Mavs drafted TYLER BEY, but I don’t anticipate him getting much of a chance to break through this season. Maybe some minutes early on, but probably a lot of shots of him wearing street clothes behind the bench when everyone is healthy. Whether you view him as a 4, as I do, or you’re hoping he’s a 3, it’s clear either outcome will take a WHILE. Marion wasn’t a true SF until well into his 30’s for example. Still, this shouldn’t discourage anyone, because this is the exact type of investment into youth that many of us feel the Mavericks have overlooked too often in the past. He might play the least out of everyone on this list, but in some ways he is in the top five or six in terms of excitement generated, at least for me.

That’s all I got. Flame away!

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Geez, I have to stop trying to voice dictate these things… So many typos.

[fifteenth]

Not going to try to predict how Carlisle plays this on opening night, because A) there’s a lot of temporary injury concern to navigate and B) we know he’s going to spend the first month (at least) trying every lineup he can ...

Killer, this is perfect. I struggle with Burke's rank, but not his role. Other than that, I agree with every word.

[Kammrath]

TYLER BEY

P.S. GREAT post @"KillerLeft"! I think with KP out, WCS is going to be given every chance to be successful in DAL in the first four weeks. I think he might be the KP "placeholder" to start the season (as we all know RC likes to keep the rotation the same, so he prefers to put one replacement guy in rather than slide the whole rotation up so to speak). I think WCS can also ultimately overtake DP if DP's play slides or WCS finally plays up to his incredible potential.

[Scott41theMavs]

TYLER BEY

P.S. GREAT post @"KillerLeft"! I think with KP out, WCS is going to be given every chance to be successful in DAL in the first four weeks. I think he might be the KP "placeholder" to start the season (as we all know RC likes to keep the rotation the same, so he prefers to put one replacement guy in rather than slide the whole rotation up so to speak). I think WCS can also ultimately overtake DP if DP's play slides or WCS finally plays up to his incredible potential.

WCS haters can look at it this way - if he lives up to his usual billing of killing it at the beginning the season and then settling into a disinterested rut, that's perfect timing for the Mavs, because the beginning of the season is when they'll need him the most.

[Jason Terry]

Nice post KL, i enjoyed that.

Brunson i don’t believe needs to be able to play with Luka. He can, i just think the strength of Brunson is that he’s a bright leader who does a bit of everything decent. Ideal for the bench decision maker when Luka is off the court. Not only that, but Rick will sit Luka a few games and Brunson has shown he can start in a pinch

As far as the bigs go it looks more like a grab bag than anything set in stone. DP, WCS, JJ, Boban could each be anywhere from DNP to starters. With KP being an early question mark there will be plenty of time to see who deserves the most time. I look for DP and JJ to get the most burn at first. This seems like a necessity since they’re the most likely trade targets

[KillerLeft]

Nice post KL, i enjoyed that.

Brunson i don’t believe needs to be able to play with Luka. He can, i just think the strength of Brunson is that he’s a bright leader who does a bit of everything decent. Ideal for the bench decision maker when Luka is off the court. Not only that, but Rick will sit Luka a few games and Brunson has shown he can start in a pinch

So, here is my thinking about the above. While I agree that the Mavericks will always have a need for a guy who can handle back up point guard duties, even if that’s all he can do, I think that from Brunson‘s perspective, he is going to want to make more money on his next contract. If he wants to make that money here, he will have to make himself a viable option playing with Luka. It’s possible that he could be successful and attractive to another team whose best player is NOT their point guard without taking that step, but for me to see him as a long-term re-sign solution here, I’d say he needs to get better off ball. 

I hope that makes sense. I definitely don’t mean it as a criticism of Brunson.

[Jason Terry]

TYLER BEY

   

[FunkBoreland]

I think that from Brunson‘s perspective, he is going to want to make more money on his next contract. 

When Trey Buke sign the 3 year contract, it made me think that they might want to expand on Brunson. Next year is unguaranteed for his base salary so his looking at showcasing his best for the upcoming two years.

Back up PG - Burke, Brunson, Terry, Barea (pending official roster). Your financially tied with Burke and Terry could be a pleasant surprise if he can be floor general. There is options.

Remember Brunson is a winner. He won Villanova a NCAA championship, won state in HS, this isn't by accident. Till NBA he actually had to be a backup PG. If Brunson can ball out that we dangle him playing time for a trade asset (draft picks?) I'm for it.

[Branduil]

I think how Burke and Terry pan out this year will have a big impact on how the Mavs deal with Brunson. If those two seem to have good-enough ballhandling skills to back up Luka, Brunson could end up in a trade for a bigger fish.

[DrMav]

I like Brunson and think he’s been a strong player with the ball in his hands, and really hope he continues to expand his game to become a better off ball player. 

If he does that and we keep him as part of the young core, or use him as trade bait, I’ll be ok with either. I will be pissed, however, if we squander his value contract and ultimately let him walk for nothing in FA.

[ItsGoTime]

I would love to reunite the best bench duo in the league. Maxi and Dwight always were at their best when they shared the floor.

Sooooo this!

[IamDougieFresh]

We have too many good players and not enough minutes!!!

[DanSchwartzgan]

I loved Killer’s long write-up.

Something I saw on another site that I’ll add to the discussion because I haven’t seen it here.  Johnson will probably have a bigger role than we anticipate.  He’s almost exclusively a PF and has been bench/occasional starter for the last several years.

Why am I focusing on Johnson?  Because it appears they went out of their way to get him.  The deal with Detroit could have simply been Wright for Ariza.  Ariza is useful and expiring.  Dallas could have stopped there, but did Ariza + Jackson plus minor draft compensation to get Johnson.  My read on that is Johnson will be the primary bench PF.  He’s good at the PnR and PnPop.  

I think if Powell is healthy he will return to his starting role.  I don’t know if he’s a C or a PF, but it doesn’t really matter.  He’s a big and a vertical spacer who is a PnR savant.  I see Maxi and Johnson playing the KP/Powell roles off the bench.  As Kamm said, WCS will be DNP some nights and starter in place of KP some nights in order to maintain the rest of the rotation.   DFS, Burke and Brunson will join Maxi and Johnson as the primary bench and the rookies will be used sparingly.  

Carlisle doesn’t run lines.  He runs starters for each quarter and a KP w/o Luka grouping and a Luka w/o KP grouping.  The key to understanding “the bench” is understanding who will play alongside KP and Brunson in the w/o Luka line and who will play with Luka, Powell and Burke in the w/o KP line.  Popcornmachine.net is a really good site to monitor this from game to game.  My guess is Luka gets Burke/DFS/Maxi and Powell while KP gets Johnson/THJ/JRich and Brunson.  Closing lineups tend to be matchup driven depending on what we need on the floor defensively.

[Kammrath]

Why am I focusing on Johnson?  Because it appears they went out of their way to get him.  The deal with Detroit could have simply been Wright for Ariza.  Ariza is useful and expiring

YES. I noticed this and am SHOCKED by it. The Mavs paid a 2nd round pick for him....others are wrong saying that the 2nd was to get rid of Wright....the 2nd was to get Johnson instead of Ariza. 

I still don't understand it.

[StepBackJay]

I will still maintain that Powell is not a starter even if healthy next to KP. Mavs tried a rim roller next to KP and it hampered KPs game. Mavs need a spacer next to KP. While I could see KP playing occasional minutes next to a center I expect most of his minutes to be next to a 3D stretch big. That would mean Maxi, DFS or Johnson would be in the front court next to KP. I would be shocked in so many ways if Powell starts next to KP ever again. He provides no spacing on offense and gets in the way essentially of KPs game. With no center KP can mix things up which is what he needs. Luka also benefits from all the spacing a 5 out lineup gives you.