DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Kammrath]

RE: Christian Wood

As I have stated elsewhere for months, I am super enamored with him. Some thoughts:

1) He LED the entire Pistons team in Defensive On/Off last year with +4.5. That is HARD to do in 1300+ mins on the floor. He was +1.99 DRPM, +2.7 RAPTOR D.

2) He also LED the entire Pistons team in Offensive On/Off last year with +5.9. That is HARD to do. He was +1.54 ORPM, +1.8 RAPTOR O.

3) Doing BOTH of those at the same time is INCREDIBLE. Almost impossible that this is a statistical "fluke" and points to how incredibly effective he was on BOTH sides of the ball last year. 

4) His PER was 23.4 last year with 66% TS%, 39% 3P% (3.8 attempts per 36, 40.4% on catch and shoot, 43.7% when wide open). This is DAMN good.

5) He was 95.4 percentile as the roll man...and 92.3 percentile in defending the pick and roll......ELITE.

6) He split his time equally between 4 and 5. He fits perfectly the Mavs need for big man depth.

7) He just turned 25 years old and has always played with great energy and athleticism, but has struggled to channel and focus that. It seems things have "clicked" for him.


Almost needless to say he is far and away NUMBER ONE on my free agent big board. But I have ONE anxiety:

He is known to kind of do his own thing on the court and not pay attention to details. Is that an old leaf in his past? How will he do with RC as the coach?


ALL IN FOR CHRISTIAN WOOD.

[ItsGoTime]

So, you might be right, but just to play devil's advocate...what if he doesn't WANT to be in Luka's shadow? What if he wants to be the PRIMARY ball-handler for a team?

And, ok, you think he's better than THJ, so fine. I think that's fairly debatable, but let's go with that. Say you replace THJ with Bogdanovic...who's spacing the floor now? Richardson? Yikes. 

I think there's a profound...I won't say misunderstanding, but maybe taking for granted of what great off-ball shooters like Hardaway bring to the table, and how that opens things up for others. It's not just about checking their damn 3pt%, guys.

There's a few things to this argument that need to be hammered out to reflect the nuance of my thought process. What you say in here is making the assumption that THJ is now and forever (while on this team, in this role) that same 3 pt specialist he was last year. There's got to be at least a bit of break tapping on that considering his numbers before he got here.

On that same note, taking into consideration THJ's numbers before he got here and what he accomplished last year, why is it not in any realm of possibility to believe that a person who comes here as a better 3 pt shooter BEFORE coming here could at the very least replicate that success? 

With that note, why is it so impossible to think that a person that comes here as a better shooter than THJ was before getting here while having more to his skillset that that person is not an upgrade?

Yes, THJ put in lots of work and had to be smart to do what he did. I just don't think it's impossible to believe someone else (or the aggregate of multiple elses) couldn't replace what THJ did last year all while adding more to their skillset to help the team out as a whole.

[cow]

4/5s that do it all are basically a list of 1 ... AD.  Then you've got to pick skillsets.  We have a defensive specialist in Maxi.  We got 7+ muscle in Boban.    We even have a tall forward who can play 5 in small ball lineups for brief amounts of time in DoDo .  What we don't have is a 4/5 who can dependably get you 15 a night and clear  out the paint for Luka and be a high end PnR  roller.    The reality is that both KP and DPs careers are in jeopardy.  Fans can be rosy and optimistic that everything is going to work out fine, front offices with title aspirations can't.

I like Wood but there are so many red flags that anything over the MLE would make me really nervous and even them I'm sleeping with one eye open.  Seriously, go watch his defense against other big men.  He makes Dwight Powell look like Dikembe.

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Josh Richardson is career 36% from 3, Bog is 37%, THJ is 35%. People act like Rich can't shoot. You are going to be surprised. All of these guys can hit outside shots especially in this system that gets them good looks.

Not worried about his shooting.  Everyone gets a bump here.  I question the secondary play maker role and the evaluation that he's better than THJ in that department.

Bogi, in my eyes, is a better fit in that role.  It also mean we are moving on from THJ which is sad, but we rebuilt his reputation so he can find a new home on a good contract.

[dirkfansince1998]

Rockets are the perfect trade partner when it comes to the available players. Former contender that is blowing up the roster and is willing to trade veteran role players for younger assets or draft picks. Problem is that they are the stinky Rockets and we are the mighty Mavs. They don´t like us. We don´t like them.

I would love to see Tucker and to a lesser degree McLemore in a Mavs jersey. Would even be willing to give up a future 1st if they take back some bad salary (Wright or Powell).

[cow]

No more future firsts until one of our owed picks to New York conveys, please.

[dirkfansince1998]

No more future firsts until one of our owed picks to New York conveys, please.

I think at this point it really doesn´t matter as much. We don´t have any remaining assets and this offseason + next year will be the last chances to make any big changes to the Luka/KP contender core.
Premium assets are only available for a high price. RoCo for 2 1sts. Jrue for everything the Bucks had left. If you want something good you have to give something of equal value.

[cow]

No more future firsts until one of our owed picks to New York conveys, please.

I think at this point it really doesn´t matter as much. We don´t have any remaining assets and this offseason + next year will be the last chances to make any big changes to the Luka/KP contender core.
Premium assets are only available for a high price. RoCo for 2 1sts. Jrue for everything the Bucks had left. If you want something good you have to give something of equal value.

Sending off your 2027 pick isn't wise.

[ItsGoTime]

Sending off your 2027 pick isn't wise.

It most certainly is when we'll be winning our 5th title in a row!!!

[cow]

Sending off your 2027 pick isn't wise.

It most certainly is when we'll be winning our 5th title in a row!!!

[KillerLeft]

On that same note, taking into consideration THJ's numbers before he got here and what he accomplished last year, why is it not in any realm of possibility to believe that a person who comes here as a better 3 pt shooter BEFORE coming here could at the very least replicate that success? 

With that note, why is it so impossible to think that a person that comes here as a better shooter than THJ was before getting here while having more to his skillset that that person is not an upgrade?

This is all good stuff. 

What I think is being lost is the ROLE we're talking about. Sprinting around screens, getting shots off quickly (8 attempts per game!!!) and from spots where the opposing defense knows from film that you're trying to reach in order to catch the ball. Hardaway wasn't a guy who just shot more than the other guys on the team, he was the guy who those shots were DESIGNED to go to. This is one of the things opposing defenses schemed to take away, and yet he got off 8 attempts per game (go listen to JJ Reddick and Duncan Robinson talk about how freaking difficult that is - just being able to get that many shots up in this role) and he shot 40%!!! List of people in this role who were better last year: Robinson, Reddick and Hield. That's it. That's the list. Since Hardaway had NEVER played that role before (was on ball a lot more in the past, especially in NY) his "I'm the star here" 3pt% that he brought with him to Dallas doesn't matter to me in the slightest. What's important to me is that on 500+ attempts last year, in this role, he shot 40% and they made the playoffs. It worked. 

Now, you want to tell me you think Bogdanovic is a better player? Debatable, but whatever, I won't argue. You want to tell me he can play THIS specific role better? I might push back a little harder, but whatever, I won't argue. The issue I have is that people don't seem to understand how rare it is to do what THJ did here last year. It's a highly coveted season he put together. A DFS 3pt% (corner shots you get because you're the dude the other team chooses to leave open) is really not all that comparable to a Hardaway 3pt% (usually the first or second option, and often the point of running a specific action or play). 

I know I digressed from your question, sorry. I just think the above is badly, badly misunderstood. 

In terms of "can Bogdanovic be a replacement for that, in addition to being a better playmaker" my answer would be "I'm honestly not sure." I would trust the Mavs - if they think he can be, we'll find out. What I'm trying to do in this conversation is offer some ideas as to why they might not want him, nothing more. I'm not saying it, I'm considering it. But I DO think there's risk involved with rocking this particular boat. Especially when doing so throws a ton of financial flexibility out of the window. 

I guess I just don't see Bogdanovic as a guy so good that you just pay him and make him fit. If others are higher on him than that, I can see the argument. If the Mavs get him, I'll assume they are higher on him, too. What I'm saying is that if they AREN'T interested, I can see why, and I definitely won't suddenly think this GRAND SLAM of an off-season is somehow tainted. I'm also saying (again and again and again, forever) that while the Mavs would and should move Hardaway instantly in the right deal, I definitely don't think getting hm off of the roster is remotely close to something you could call a goal. I think they LIKE him, I think they VALUE him, and I think they're hoping he can build on his success from last season.

[cow]

I guess I just don't see Bogdanovic as a guy so good that you just pay him and make him fit. If others are higher on him than that, I can see the argument. If the Mavs get him, I'll assume they are higher on him, too. What I'm saying is that if they AREN'T interested, I can see why, and I definitely won't suddenly think this GRAND SLAM of an off-season is somehow tainted. I'm also saying (again and again and again, forever) that while the Mavs would and should move Hardaway instantly in the right deal, I definitely don't think getting hm off of the roster is remotely close to something you could call a goal. I think they LIKE him, I think they VALUE him, and I think they're hoping he can build on his success from last season.

If you got Bogi on a similar contract what THJ signed with the Knicks, I that's a win. I know everyone has dreams of a big three but that's probably not a reality. We do need a 3rd piece that compliments Luka and KP. Bogi is that secondary play maker that can help take pressure off of Luka. He can run PNR with KP. He can knock down outside shots. You need strong defenders around him and Luka but I think with KP and the combination of Maxi, DFS, Richardson, Green, we can modify the lineups to matchup pretty well against most other lineups. Bogi will certainly be a better version of what he was with the Kings in a stable organization and in a Carlisle offense powered by Luka and KP. I also think he's contract is going to be easy to move off of should other opportunities arise (play making sharp shooters are always valuable).

I'm also ready to move on from THJ no matter what. I don't think he's good enough to be part of the core three and I don't think he can assume a super sixth man role. And that really bums me out because I think he's a great kid who wants to be here and has been the most pleasant surprise from the KP deal.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

THJ shot 39.8% from three on 7 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

DFS shot 37.6% on 4.5 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

Are THJ and DFS just that much better players now?  Or are their percentages higher because Luka is amazing?  Count me in the latter camp.  

Now there's two way to look at it:

1.  Hey these guys ARE going to be playing with Luka so their good numbers will remain good.  We already have them and dont need to spend assets acquiring them.  Lets roll with them.

2.  If these meh guys can put up those kind of numbers playing next to Luka, imagine what someone with a lot more talent can do.  Could Bogdan turn into a borderline all-star playing next to Luka?  

I tend to lean more towards 2.  Therefore, if our big investment is on a big, I think the Mavs no longer think they can count on KP to be there when we need him. (more than just missing the beginning of this upcoming season)

[ItsGoTime]

On that same note, taking into consideration THJ's numbers before he got here and what he accomplished last year, why is it not in any realm of possibility to believe that a person who comes here as a better 3 pt shooter BEFORE coming here could at the very least replicate that success? 

With that note, why is it so impossible to think that a person that comes here as a better shooter than THJ was before getting here while having more to his skillset that that person is not an upgrade?

This is all good stuff. 

What I think is being lost is the ROLE we're talking about. Sprinting around screens, getting shots off quickly (8 attempts per game!!!) and from spots where the opposing defense knows from film that you're trying to reach in order to catch the ball. Hardaway wasn't a guy who just shot more than the other guys on the team, he was the guy who those shots were DESIGNED to go to. This is one of the things opposing defenses schemed to take away, and yet he got off 8 attempts per game (go listen to JJ Reddick and Duncan Robinson talk about how freaking difficult that is - just being able to get that many shots up in this role) and he shot 40%!!! List of people in this role who were better last year: Robinson, Reddick and Hield. That's it. That's the list. Since Hardaway had NEVER played that role before (was on ball a lot more in the past, especially in NY) his "I'm the star here" 3pt% that he brought with him to Dallas doesn't matter to me in the slightest. What's important to me is that on 500+ attempts last year, in this role, he shot 40% and they made the playoffs. It worked. 

Now, you want to tell me you think Bogdanovic is a better player? Debatable, but whatever, I won't argue. You want to tell me he can play THIS specific role better? I might push back a little harder, but whatever, I won't argue. The issue I have is that people don't seem to understand how rare it is to do what THJ did here last year. It's a highly coveted season he put together. A DFS 3pt% (corner shots you get because you're the dude the other team chooses to leave open) is really not all that comparable to a Hardaway 3pt% (usually the first or second option, and often the point of running a specific action or play). 

I know I digressed from your question, sorry. I just think the above is badly, badly misunderstood. 

In terms of "can Bogdanovic be a replacement for that, in addition to being a better playmaker" my answer would be "I'm honestly not sure." I would trust the Mavs - if they think he can be, we'll find out. What I'm trying to do in this conversation is offer some ideas as to why they might not want him, nothing more. I'm not saying it, I'm considering it. But I DO think there's risk involved with rocking this particular boat. Especially when doing so throws a ton of financial flexibility out of the window. 

I guess I just don't see Bogdanovic as a guy so good that you just pay him and make him fit. If others are higher on him than that, I can see the argument. If the Mavs get him, I'll assume they are higher on him, too. What I'm saying is that if they AREN'T interested, I can see why, and I definitely won't suddenly think this GRAND SLAM of an off-season is somehow tainted. I'm also saying (again and again and again, forever) that while the Mavs would and should move Hardaway instantly in the right deal, I definitely don't think getting hm off of the roster is remotely close to something you could call a goal. I think they LIKE him, I think they VALUE him, and I think they're hoping he can build on his success from last season.

YES! Thank you for the well thought out post!

I like THJ for the reasons you’re talking about. I just think he’s too 1 dimensional for what our starting team needs. I really like the 1 dimension and to me, the odds are that it is repeatable (improved upon, not so much as far as odds go because that is also possible).

What I’m getting at when I say “elses” is I think if you split the 8 per game lost (from subtracting THJ) between the likes of DFS/JRich/Bog/Kleber, I think that becomes your improvement. All while adding more defense and other very usable skills. The added benefit is the defense doesn’t know where it’s coming from so the possibility of it being more effective is in play.

[cow]

THJ shot 39.8% from three on 7 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

DFS shot 37.6% on 4.5 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

Are THJ and DFS just that much better players now?  Or are their percentages higher because Luka is amazing?  Count me in the latter camp.  

Now there's two way to look at it:

1.  Hey these guys ARE going to be playing with Luka so their good numbers will remain good.  We already have them and dont need to spend assets acquiring them.  Lets roll with them.

2.  If these meh guys can put up those kind of numbers playing next to Luka, imagine what someone with a lot more talent can do.  Could Bogdan turn into a borderline all-star playing next to Luka?  

I tend to lean more towards 2.  Therefore, if our big investment is on a big, I think the Mavs no longer think they can count on KP to be there when we need him. (more than just missing the beginning of this upcoming season)

Praise Ray Allen.

Bogi could see a two fold bump, in addition to the Carlisle Offense/Luka bump, you also have to consider the getting off the Kings/Luke Walton bump.

[Kammrath]

Now that [b]Bogdan Bogdanovic[/b] has re-emerged as a free agent option for teams outside of Milwaukee, the RFA swingman and his representatives are expected to take meetings when free agency opens, according to Sam Amick and Eric Nehm of The Athletic, who say that the [b]Hawks[/b] and [b]Lakers[/b] are known to have interest.

Amick and Nehm suggest it’s “widely known” that [b]Bucks[/b] star [b]Giannis Antetokounmpo[/b] had been recruiting Bogdanovic to Milwaukee. Since it seems that union won’t happen, teams hoping to eventually lure Giannis away from the Bucks will probably become a little more interested in Bogdanovic, according to The Athletic’s duo, who mention the [b]Mavericks[/b] and [b]Heat[/b] as a couple of those clubs.

[ClutchDirk]

https://lakersdaily.com/rajon-rondo-sign...-of-steam/

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As The Athletic and The New York Times reported on Thursday, the league is indeed looking into the matter. Serious pressure is being applied to all parties, and sources told The Athletic midday Friday that the Bogdanovic-to-the-Bucks prospect is dead. Bogdanovic and his representation are expected to take meetings when it’s allowed this afternoon/evening, with Atlanta and the Lakers known to be among the suitors.
From there, don’t be surprised if Bogdanovic draws interest from many of the same teams who would love nothing more than for all of this chaos to convince two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to eventually head their way (Miami, Dallas, the Clippers, the Knicks). Why? Because it’s widely known that Antetokounmpo — who will be offered a supermax extension by the Bucks on Friday and has until Dec. 21 to sign it — has been recruiting Bogdanovic to come to Milwaukee. That reality, of course, means he has an added bit of value beyond his basketball talents.
As for the Milwaukee prospect, sources say Bogdanovic had a number of concerns about that situation even before word spread that there would be a league investigation into the matter. But as of now, it’s that unwelcome development that appears to have been the proverbial nail in the coffin on a deal: If you’re a 28-year-old small forward with a robust free agency market, and you think there’s even a remote chance that the NBA might void whatever sign-and-trade deal ultimately put you in a Bucks jersey, then there’s just no way you take that risk.

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https://twitter.com/Gambo987/status/1329871012939190273

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https://twitter.com/SBondyNYDN/status/13...0556585985

[cow]

4/85 would be a good deal for Fred.

[swaggerbox]

one thing we are forgetting about Bogi is that more than his fit with the team (will essentially replace Seth while we wait for Terry to develop), he is friends with Luka and Giannis. Giannis recruited him to play for the Bucks before that fiasco erupted. That should account for something right?

[KillerLeft]

THJ shot 39.8% from three on 7 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

DFS shot 37.6% on 4.5 attempts per game.  Had never approached that percentage before.

Are THJ and DFS just that much better players now?  Or are their percentages higher because Luka is amazing?  Count me in the latter camp.  

Now there's two way to look at it:

1.  Hey these guys ARE going to be playing with Luka so their good numbers will remain good.  We already have them and dont need to spend assets acquiring them.  Lets roll with them.

2.  If these meh guys can put up those kind of numbers playing next to Luka, imagine what someone with a lot more talent can do.  Could Bogdan turn into a borderline all-star playing next to Luka?  

I tend to lean more towards 2.  Therefore, if our big investment is on a big, I think the Mavs no longer think they can count on KP to be there when we need him. (more than just missing the beginning of this upcoming season)

This is interesting, and I can't disagree with the logic, but I still think it discounts a large part of what made THJ work last year. I won't try to type it all out again (you're welcome).

It seems like, at the end of the day, most of you are just way higher on Bogdanovic than I am. If making the move makes the team a championship contender, I'm all about it. If it doesn't, I'm way, way more interested in holding on to that expiring contract and all the possibilities it brings, especially now that Richardson is here on a similar deal.

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one thing we are forgetting about Bogi is that more than his fit with the team (will essentially replace Seth while we wait for Terry to develop), he is friends with Luka and Giannis. Giannis recruited him to play for the Bucks before that fiasco erupted. That should account for something right?

It most definitely should. Good point.

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I know everyone has dreams of a big three but that's probably not a reality.  We do need a 3rd piece that compliments Luka and KP.  Bogi is that secondary play maker that can help take pressure off of Luka.  He can run PNR with KP.  He can knock down outside shots.  

I can see this argument. And, for the record, if you feel strongly enough about Bogdanovic that you're comfortable with him being the 3rd guy, then you pay him and you move Richardson later if the fit issues I'm envisioning pop up. 

I'm just saying, I'm not sure I'm ready to declare myself all in on "We DID it. We got Bogdanovic! Championship!" You're thinking realistically though, and I respect that.

[cow]

It seems like, at the end of the day, most of you are just way higher on Bogdanovic than I am. If making the move makes the team a championship contender, I'm all about it. If it doesn't, I'm way, way more interested in holding on to that expiring contract and all the possibilities it brings, especially now that Richardson is here on a similar deal.

I'm just looking to upgrade THJ. I don't think Bogi is a star but I think he's much more valuable than Tim both on the court and as a tradable asset. I also think we are a few years away from true title contention (once LeBron ages out).

Mavs might envision Richardson in that role. I'm totally not sold here but that might mean they aren't even looking at Bogi.