DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Kammrath]

Where is that 47% chance coming from and how do you define "hit"?

It is from draft analysis over the years. For picks 16-20 there is about 47% chance the player becomes AT LEAST a rotation role player or starter or All-Star (and has a 10+ year NBA career). 53% chance he is a deep bench player or a bust. 

I do not want #18 because it means that player will contribute in 2021, I want that player because he could have a 10 year career next to Luka.