01-16-2021, 08:58 AM
(01-16-2021, 08:13 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Rough start shooting 34%/31%/50%....yikes.
I don't see the use of scaling up the results of very few repetitions to per one hundred rates.
The whole purpose of these stats on percentages is to have a tool at hand to estimate what to expect next. For example if KP had hit 500 of his 1000 free throws, he'd still be around that ratio whether he hits the next one or not, and you'd expect him to continue hitting around that rate because you have a large enough sample size. Percentages work best when you scale down larger (bigger than 100) numbers.
KP hit 1 of his 2 free throws in two games. Scaling that rate up to 100 doesn't really mean much, because it doesn't make you expect him to shoot 50% going forward. It's just a single missed free throw.
Nevertheless, he is 37.5% from three (6/16 [4/9 + 2/7]) in two games. He should have missed one more to go down to 31.25%. Had he hit one more instead, his 3PT% would have been 43.75%!