DoDo on the rise: Who's better than RoCo?

[dirkfansince1998]

I hope so much that DFS IS this player, but this would be his first year he has shown to be this player and we still have a ton more games to play.

Let's not forget DoDo is still only 26 and on the rise. RoCo is 29 and hasn't looked the same since his injury. 

Here's an interesting player evaluation of RoCo when he was 26

Covington in 2016-17
Covington started his season with an awful shooting slump. The fans grew frustrated, booing Covington every time he jacked up a shot. But Covington kept firing and eventually broke out of it. He shot just 28 percent from three during his first 30 games, then found his stroke over the next 37 games, hitting 38 percent.

What stands out the most about Covington is his improvement on the defensive end. He specialized in guarding wings but really guarded four different positions this season. He used his length to be disruptive in passing lanes. He finished fourth in the NBA with 1.9 steals a game. He also averaged a block a game, impressive for a guy who primarily guards wings.


Sound familiar? 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1130545966526980098

Except for the fact that DFS has never averaged more than 1 steals or 0.5 blocks. If you want to make the case that DFS might be the better player in 3 years I agree. Right now or in some crazy reversed history it´s not the case. At the same age RoCo already had really good defensive advanced stats. That´s not the case for DFS.
This season they have completly different roles. RoCo is the 3rd or 4th option on offense. Teams don´t want him to shoot. Opposite is true for DFS. His 3-point attempts are wide open. Opposing teams want him to shoot. He is probably the worst scorer among regular Mavs rotation players.

RoCos knee surgery was in april. Meaning that the post injury sample size is really small. Hayward, George, KP...give him some time. Just a year ago he was among the top 3 candidates for DPOY.

DFS is a great hustle player. There is no stastistical evidence that he is a great defender. Most metrics rank him as average. His one outstanding ability is offensive rebounding. Nearly 2 off rebs is impressive for a 6`7 wing.

[vfromlmf]

If you want to make the case that DFS might be the better player in 3 years I agree. Right now or in some crazy reversed history it´s not the case.

Can't take price out of the equation simply because DoDo's production + his contract is a key enabling factor that supports the Mavs depth, which is why the Mavs are winning.

DoDo @ $4 million 
RoCo @ $11.3 million

RoCo may be the better player but is he really almost 3x better? No.

I'd much rather have DoDo and Curry for the same price as one RoCo, simply because DoDo is giving the Mavs 95% of RoCo's peak production (and RoCo is having an off year) plus Curry is starting to look like the next JJ Reddick.

Again, not saying RoCo isn't a great role player. I'd love to have him. But DoDo is a great role player too. Let's not lose sight of that and dismiss him as some hustle guy who should be coming off the bench. In fact, I'd love to have all three role players.

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Except for the fact that DFS has never averaged more than 1 steals or 0.5 blocks.

I've always thought steals were a bit of a system stat. Top steals guys in the NBA tend to gamble. That said I do like steals as a measure of athleticism in college. And obviously, some NBA players have elite hands on-ball, or elite anticipation. Some guys are sneaky surprise guys, like Wright. I haven't watched enough RoCo to know how he gets his numbers. DFS had two steals last night but he seems to be a guy who doesn't gamble and may not have elite steals traits. He sticks to the game plan and gains extra possessions on the offensive glass, where he is elite.

[Mavs2019]

The most underrated part about DFS is his passing. He´s probably also 20 asissts short for the season, cause these stat trackers just don´t know who he is. He´s getting confused with THJ and Wrigfht all the time, like THJ would ever pass a ball.

[dirkfansince1998]

If you want to make the case that DFS might be the better player in 3 years I agree. Right now or in some crazy reversed history it´s not the case.

Can't take price out of the equation simply because DoDo's production + his contract is a key enabling factor that supports the Mavs depth, which is why the Mavs are winning.

DoDo @ $4 million 
RoCo @ $11.3 million

RoCo may be the better player but is he really almost 3x better? No.

I'd much rather have DoDo and Curry for the same price as one RoCo, simply because DoDo is giving the Mavs 95% of RoCo's peak production (and RoCo is having an off year) plus Curry is starting to look like the next JJ Reddick.

Again, not saying RoCo isn't a great role player. I'd love to have him. But DoDo is a great role player too. Let's not lose sight of that and dismiss him as some hustle guy who should be coming off the bench. In fact, I'd love to have all three role players.

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Except for the fact that DFS has never averaged more than 1 steals or 0.5 blocks.

I've always thought steals were a bit of a system stat. Top steals guys in the NBA tend to gamble. That said I do like steals as a measure of athleticism in college. And obviously, some NBA players have elite hands on-ball, or elite anticipation. Some guys are sneaky surprise guys, like Wright. I haven't watched enough RoCo to know how he gets his numbers. DFS had two steals last night but he seems to be a guy who doesn't gamble and may not have elite steals traits. He sticks to the game plan and gains extra possessions on the offensive glass, where he is elite.

I think a lot of people have a wrong idea of RoCos abilities. He was the best defensive SF in the last few years but not because he is an alltime great onball defender. He is good but not among the best in the league. The thing that made him special was the help defense and switching ability. When it comes to versatility and defensive IQ he was second only to Draymond in the last few years.
Prior to his injury he was one of those rare players that could anchor a defense without being a bigman. Only other comparable players in the current league are Draymond and Smart. He was incredible in Philly and just as good or even better in the 22 game sample size with the Wolves last year. Prior to his arrival they had a bottom 10 defense (with Butler on the roster). During those 22 games they had a top 5 defense.
It is obviously not a given but if he ever returns to that level he is worth a lot more than his 11.3 mio contract. That player was at least 3x better than current DFS.
Judging their current level I still think that he is better but if he never gets back to his former self I tend to agree with your assesment.

I also don´t think that DFS is a bad player. When I call him a hustle player it is more about his skill set. He is no ballhandler, not a great shooter and at best slightly above average on defense. In the modern NBA that should disqualify him from being a good role player but DFS finds a way to make an impact. He is a really good offensive rebounder and a great cutter. In both cases it is his timing that makes him special. Catching bigman off guard on a putback or suprising his defender on a sneaky backdoor cut. Dodo finds a way to get easy points in the paint.

[vfromlmf]

The best defensive big wings last season on a per-possession basis were:

1. Derrick Jones, Jr.
   
2. Torrey Craig
   
3. Josh Richardson
   
4. Dorian Finney-Smith
   

RoCo lands at 9

https://greekgodofstats.com/2019/10/24/t...n-the-nba/

[dirkfansince1998]

The best defensive big wings last season on a per-possession basis were:

1. Derrick Jones, Jr.
   
2. Torrey Craig
   
3. Josh Richardson
   
4. Dorian Finney-Smith
   

RoCo lands at 9

https://greekgodofstats.com/2019/10/24/t...n-the-nba/

Are you just posting random stats or at least trying to understand what they mean? This numbers are basically a combination of the amount of DFGA in relation to the opponents efficiency.
What stands out about the numbers is that DFS had to carry a big load on defense because the Mavs lacked a second athletic wing. He was forced to defend the best opposing scorer most of the time. That obviously hasn´t changed.

[vfromlmf]

Are you just posting random stats or at least trying to understand what they mean?

Of course I know what they mean. The numbers suggest DFS was one highest impact defensive small forwards in the NBA. You can learn more about Matchup Based Defense here --> https://greekgodofstats.com/2019/09/28/m...d-defense/

You're trying to dismiss these numbers because DFS was forced to carry a huge load? And it's a bad thing that he put up league leading advanced defensive metrics because, er, well because he had to? That makes ZERO sense. 

The best role playing defenders in the league are given the most difficult assignments. They carry heaviest load. 

And by the way, before you try to make it sound like I'm saying something I'm not. I'm not saying DoDo is the third or fourth best defending SF in the league. If I could choose one defender to stop one shot in crunch time surely I'd take a half dozen or more guys before even thinking of DoDo (Kawhi, George, Lebron) But this advanced metric sure puts him among the game's elite and most valuable defenders. Certainly more valuable than a so-called "hustle player".

Oh, and how about one more random stat while I'm at it. 

Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes

DoDo
Career WP48 .123
19-20 WP48 .190

RoCo
Career WP48 .099
19-20 WP48 .092

[dirkfansince1998]

Are you just posting random stats or at least trying to understand what they mean?

Of course I know what they mean. The numbers suggest DFS was one highest impact defensive small forwards in the NBA. You're trying to dismiss these numbers because DFS was forced to carry a huge load? And it's a bad thing that he put up league leading advanced defensive metrics because, er, well because he had to? That makes ZERO sense. 

The best role playing defenders in the league are given the most difficult assignments. They carry heaviest load. 

And by the way, before you try to make it sound like I'm saying something I'm not. I'm not saying DoDo is the third or fourth best defending SF in the league. If I could choose one defender to stop one shot in crunch time surely I'd take a half dozen or more guys before even thinking of DoDo (Kawhi, George, Lebron) But this advanced metric sure puts him among the game's elite and most valuable defenders. Certainly more valuable than a so-called "hustle player".

Oh, and how about one more random stat while I'm at it. 

Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes

DoDo
Career WP48 .123
19-20 WP48 .190

RoCo
Career WP48 .099
19-20 WP48 .092

The stat you quoted doesn´t care about anything that happens of the ball or in any moment were DFS isn´t contesting the opposing shot. Please explain how the stat is created and what it measures instead of coming up with more nonsense. You are not even interested in any real discussion. Just trying to push an narrative.

[vfromlmf]

Please explain how the stat is created and what it measures instead of coming up with more nonsense. You are not even interested in any real discussion. Just trying to push an narrative.

Look I'm trying to be respectful so you can just go read about the stat yourself if you want to know more. Basically, it's an advanced analytics approach that attempts to do the impossible i.e. measure individual defense. 

In order to properly and accurately evaluate individual defense, we need to know what a player is asked to do on defense, how well he does his job, and how much effect it has on his team’s defensive performance. 

There's lots of new data available, so this approach is probably better than most.

You can call it nonsense or try to shoot the messenger if you want. The numbers are the numbers. If you don't agree, fine. Others may find them interesting.

For me, the numbers only reinforce what DoDo's coach and teammates are saying.

The numbers reinforce DoDo getting 3rd most minutes on a team that's on pace for 50+ wins.

The numbers reinforce what I see with my own eyes when DoDo gives the opponents best scorer hell every night.

The narrative is not mine. What DoDo is doing with his actual real live minutes define the narrative. I'm only shining a little light on him.

[dirkfansince1998]

Please explain how the stat is created and what it measures instead of coming up with more nonsense. You are not even interested in any real discussion. Just trying to push an narrative.

Look I'm trying to be respectful so you can just go read about the stat yourself if you want to know more. Basically, it's an advanced analytics approach that attempts to do the impossible i.e. measure individual defense. 

In order to properly and accurately evaluate individual defense, we need to know what a player is asked to do on defense, how well he does his job, and how much effect it has on his team’s defensive performance. 

There's lots of new data available, so this approach is probably better than most.

You can call it nonsense or try to shoot the messenger if you want. The numbers are the numbers. If you don't agree, fine. Others may find them interesting.

For me, the numbers only reinforce what DoDo's coach and teammates are saying.

The numbers reinforce DoDo getting 3rd most minutes on a team that's on pace for 50+ wins.

The numbers reinforce what I see with my own eyes when DoDo gives the opponents best scorer hell every night.

The narrative is not mine. What DoDo is doing with his actual real live minutes define the narrative. I'm only shining a little light on him.

In other words you don´t have a clue. Never mind I am ending this discussion. There is a formula and a detailed explanation. I read and understood what it says. You obviously didn´t.
I don´t have anything against the number itself although it would be nice to know the formula he uses to determine the defensive role and based on that the load ( I am not buying the ebook). It´s the lack of critical thinking that annoys me. People read something on the internet and just go along with it. For basketball they see a stat like RPM, BPM, newer ratings like the DRAYMOND, CARMELO or the approach that you mentioned and don´t even try to understand what it is measuring. Discussion culture is getting worse in general (I don´t even want to get into politics). We need less opinion and more research.
You started the entire thread with a topic that is trying to push an narrative with cherry picked data. That´s my problem (if you want to go back to the RPM thread you will see that I defended DFS bad DRPM. I have nothing against him). We can have a RoCo vs DFS but the way we are doing it right now is useless. I take some of the blame as well because the way you tried to spin the debate triggered me and my responses started to get less friendly. For that I apologize.

[vfromlmf]

In other words you don´t have a clue. Never mind I am ending this discussion. There is a formula and a detailed explanation. I read and understood what it says. You obviously didn´t.

love how you try to make a point about lack of civil discussion and thoughtful debate by resorting to insults. Look I posted some stats and linked to an article and now I’m pushing a narrative, cherry picking and “triggering” you? Why does this damn thread keep derailing to mental health? It’s just weird. 

if you want to disagree with the authors or say the methods “lack critical thinking,” go ahead, lol. Let’s hear whatcha got. But don't make any more comments about what I do or don't understand. You have no idea. 

Personally I find the article pretty good but it’s just another data point. The numbers are the numbers, that’s all.

Oh and while you're explaining the author's lack of critical thinking, you should note the approach appears to have been developed by a team of 8 or 9 people. I looked a few of them up, and it appears these guys have some credentials that suggest they know a thing or two about statistics. I stopped after four ...

1. Financial Analyst, Masters in Mathematics
   
2. Actuary and Statistician from Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). 
   
3. Master's degree student at COPPE-UFRJ, studying Artificial Intelligence.
   
4. Organic Chemist, Ph.D. Chemistry
   

Not saying the stat is perfect, or be-all end-all. Like I said, just another data point. So, what's your problem?

[dirkfansince1998]

In other words you don´t have a clue. Never mind I am ending this discussion. There is a formula and a detailed explanation. I read and understood what it says. You obviously didn´t.

love how you try to make a point about lack of civil discussion and thoughtful debate by resorting to insults. Look I posted some stats and linked to an article and now I’m pushing a narrative, cherry picking and “triggering” you? Why does this damn thread keep derailing to mental health? It’s just weird. 

if you want to disagree with the author or say his methods “lack critical thinking,” go ahead, lol. Let’s hear whatcha got.

Personally I find the article pretty good but it’s just another data point. The numbers are the numbers, that’s all.

 
I am not questioning the authors lack of critical thinking...I am questioning yours. I am still waiting for an explanation that shows any kind of understanding of the numbers you are using.
Go back to your first post of the entire thread. The entire thread is based on cherry picked data to push your narrative. Faking objectivity with the player x/y approach but only providing cherry picked numbers that favored your narrative.
I am triggered by this style of posting because it embodies everything that is wrong with the way we use the internet. Did you even try to understand the numbers you used before you posted them?

This is only a small basketball board but in the big picture the same is true for the entire internet. People are cherry picking what they want to hear. Only follow media that tells them what they want to hear. They don´t even try to question what they hear.
I will stop at this point because I am going of topic. Maybe I start a thread in the ROTW section.

[vfromlmf]

I am not questioning the authors lack of critical thinking...I am questioning yours.

Why? That makes no sense. Let me get this straight. So I posted an article, which you "don't have anything against," but you have a problem with me, because you think I don't understand it, and I embody everything that's wrong with the entire internet? Ah ... ok man.

You're just trying to insult me for no reason but it isn't working. You're tilting at windmills. Just go away and stop reading this thread.

https://www.mavs.com/mavs-com-finney-smith-carlisle/

[dirkfansince1998]

I am not questioning the authors lack of critical thinking...I am questioning yours.

Why? That makes no sense. You're just trying to insult me for no reason but it isn't working. You're tilting at windmills. Just go away and stop reading this thread.

 
 I will if you answer me this final question. Why did you choose to use the x/y approach with the selected stats to start the thread?

[vfromlmf]

Why did you choose to use the x/y approach with the selected stats to start the thread?

Because I was surprised that DoDo's numbers looked so good compared to RoCo. Thought others would be surprised too. I think DoDo is a steal @ $4 million.

The numbers aren't cherry picked. They're in every boxscore. You know, height, weight, minutes, points, assists, rebounds. Salary is the salary. Nothing disingenuous. If you don't like it, make your case. 

In the meantime I'm going to go get some tacos.

[StepBackJay]

I'd rather have RoCo than DFS, but I'd really rather have both.

Ya me too but I tht it means you are losing Curry to get him. Would you do Curry + Jackson for Roco? I am on the fence bc Curry is money. I think for now I would wait.

[Kammrath]

losing Curry

Curry is about as close to "untouchable" for me as a role player can get. He is exactly what this team needs and he hasn't even come close to hitting his stride or potential in regard to fit and play.

[ItsGoTime]

I'd rather have RoCo than DFS, but I'd really rather have both.

Ya me too but I tht it means you are losing Curry to get him. Would you do Curry + Jackson for Roco? I am on the fence bc Curry is money. I think for now I would wait.

I think if it is believed that RoCo can get into the all-defense conversation again that it is a no brained to upgrade the starting unit like that esp if we aren’t adding picks or anything else. Turn around and do the Favors for Lee and pick(s), and we do nothing to the amount of players in the rotation. 

Luka/THJ/RoCo/KP/Favors
With
JB/Wright/DFS/Kleber/Powell

I mean, that looks like a championship contending group to me. In the offseason, you upgrade THJ packaging him (fresh off a good enough playoff run) with the 1st and we are the best team in the league next year!

[SkenfromLMF]

What about working an angle with Memphis to get them younger and cheaper?

Dallas trades Jackson to Memphis
Memphis trade Jae Crowder to Minnesota
Minnesota trades RoCo to Dallas and gets the GSW pick and the best remaining 2nd rd pick available.

If Minnesota insists then the Lee for Dieng option is still available.

[fifteenth]

Thread map:

X/Y => DFS vs RoCo => Not either/or but both/and => Gaslighting => Anger/Apology/Forgiveness => more DFS stats => Triggered/Everything that's wrong with the internet => Tacos => Curry mention => Fantasy Trades

All paths lead to fantasy trades.

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I like tacos