Game 63: Miami Heat (35-26) vs. Dallas Mavericks (34-28)

[dirkfansince1998]

First, I didn't know you could find links like this.  So thanks for whoever showed them a game or two ago.  I hope these work.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=504&GameID=0022300904&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Jaquez%20Jr.%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(11%20PTS)%20(Rozier%209%20AST)

watching this play live, I was wondering what Kyrie is doing.  It doesn't show the whole play though.  But why is he getting stuck under the rim when Gafford is already in the paint.  It just feels like the players are either confused or their communication sucks.  They have way to many miscommunications or free lancing. 


https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=531&GameID=0022300904&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Rozier%2024%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(22%20PTS)%20(Bryant%201%20AST)

This one really bothered me.  Can anyone explain if this has been their strategy all year long?  It is another play where they are playing hard but a miscommunication or confusion allows a late shot clock wide open corner three off one pass.

Kyrie helps/doubles one pass away all the time. Not sure if he is going rogue or if Kidd wants him to play free safety but it is really hurting the Mavs.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Kyrie helps/doubles one pass away all the time. Not sure if he is going rogue or if Kidd wants him to play free safety but it is really hurting the Mavs.

This is Hardaway's biggest issue as well.

[surfpuckmd]

As much as I want Lively to be the starting center, I think it's also a pretty good idea to just have him come off the bench. He's still a rookie after all. Even AD didn't start right away. Also, Gafford may not like the idea of backing up a rookie. He has to be better though.

Lively is our best overall center and thus should start.  I understand Kidd feels his job is at risk and might be tempted to start a veteran over Lively.  However, I think Lively is clearly our best overall big and should be the starter.

[Mavs2021]

Lively is our best overall center and thus should start.  I understand Kidd feels his job is at risk and might be tempted to start a veteran over Lively.  However, I think Lively is clearly our best overall big and should be the starter.

I think it´s more that Gafford works better as a starter, whereas Lively just works everywhere.

[KillerLeft]

I think it´s more that Gafford works better as a starter, whereas Lively just works everywhere.

Except Gafford didn’t work well as a starter. I mean, I could understand that logic, if it were true, but the first quarter was the worst part of the game by far.

[dirkfansince1998]

This is Hardaway's biggest issue as well.

I think THJ just gets lost. With Kyrie it feels like he is doing it on purpose.

[surfpuckmd]

This was an excellent win.  The Miami Heat are a really good and well-organized team.  Here are my thoughts:

I don't like the new starting lineup.  I understand Kidd felt he had to change something but Jones doesn't shoot well enough to play regularly with Luka.  Lively is just better than Gafford and should always play more minutes when they're both available. 

PJ Washington is the exact defender that we needed.  However, his inability to hit open 3-point shots is really hurting our starting lineup.  How can a 25-year old player regress so much as a shooter?  It's concerning.  Everything else about PJ looks really good though.  

Exum looks like the versatile 3rd-guard that we needed.  He's the kind of player that the Miami Heat seem to magically create every off-season.  What a great find, Nico and Dennis!  If he's available in the playoffs, we have a chance against almost anybody in the West.  

I understand the Luka criticism about not sharing the ball.  I can see why teammates might be frustrated playing with him.  However, giving Luka the ball and allowing him to create for himself and others is one of the most effective offensive strategies in the NBA.  It just is.  Letting PJ Washington or Josh Green run the offense more while Luka is on the floor would be a bad decision.  

I don't think Maxi is as effective as a lot of other posters on this board.  His footwork and defensive positioning are really outstanding.  I wish Lively and especially Gafford had his defensive IQ.  However, he is an absolute zero on offense.  He also is a pitiful rebounder.  I think Maxi should be the third center.  I think Dwight Powell might be better as well.  I'd prefer Maxi also be the third PF as well behind PJ and DJJ.

As for the Heat, I'm really impressed with Terry Rozier.  My hope is that Jaden Hardy can develop into a Rozier clone.  As a historical THJ defender, I would like to see less THJ minutes.  I'm ready for some regular Jaden Hardy minutes.

[dirkfansince1998]

Except Gafford didn’t work well as a starter. I mean, I could understand that logic, if it were true, but the first quarter was the worst part of the game by far.

+/- and on/off wise he has reached Holmes level but we will have to wait at least a few more month before Gafford being just another dinosaur becomes an acceptable opinion on this board. I am already preparing my "I told you so" speech. You should do the same.

[Smitty]

Except Gafford didn’t work well as a starter. I mean, I could understand that logic, if it were true, but the first quarter was the worst part of the game by far.

To be fair Luka was very bad to start the game. Offensively he looked disinterested and a lot of step back 3’s he didn’t make. Even worse defensively. It’s not like the bad start was because of Gafford.

I’m aware you don’t like traditional centers but this front office seems to disagree having spent a FRP to get Gafford for size and rebounding. And a FRP on Lively.

[dirkfansince1998]

To be fair Luka was very bad to start the game. Offensively he looked disinterested and a lot of step back 3’s he didn’t make. Even worse defensively. It’s not like the bad start was because of Gafford.

I’m aware you don’t like traditional centers but this front office seems to disagree having spent a FRP to get Gafford for size and rebounding. And a FRP on Lively.

Based on the track record of this front office that's not encouraging. Not to even mention that they are adding those guys because they fit into the outdated scheme of our beloved coach.

[KillerLeft]

To be fair Luka was very bad to start the game. Offensively he looked disinterested and a lot of step back 3’s he didn’t make. Even worse defensively. It’s not like the bad start was because of Gafford.

I’m aware you don’t like traditional centers but this front office seems to disagree having spent a FRP to get Gafford for size and rebounding. And a FRP on Lively.

It’s not about traditional or nontraditional, it’s about good player or not a good player. I actually don’t consider Gafford to be a traditional center, now that you bring it up.  Athletically, he should be able to hang just fine in the modern game. I suspect his deficiencies or more about what is between his ears, but it’s still early here for him.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

All of their centers did a good job of befuddling Bam. And PJ did a decent job on Jimmy Buckets. Bam had one of his worst games that I've ever seen from him, he's usually solid. It happens. I bet he'll be much better at home in the rematch.

[Smitty]

Based on the track record of this front office that's not encouraging. Not to even mention that they are adding those guys because they fit into the outdated scheme of our beloved coach.

Then it’s also not encouraging that Luka said he’s wanted Gafford to be on the team for 3 years.

I’m not saying Gafford is some elite center and I tend to agree with the consensus here that traditional bigs are the way of the past but I’m also not one to ignore the positives that certain players provide. All 3 “centers” have positive and negative attributes, especially as it relates to playing with Luka.

[Chicagojk]

I thought Gafford did what I was hoping for last night.  Now I admit it has been bumpy so far since the trade.  When the trade was made, I said that didn't think I would have done the trade for what we gave up.  But it happened.

I want him to play like 20 minutes a night (sometimes more) and just muck things up.  Cause issues at the rim with dunks, rebounds, and some rim protection.  This team could really use more easy baskets near the rim and some kind of presence.  I hope he provides that.  Let him focus on the things he does well and help him or limit the situations where he struggles.  If he plays hard, I think there is a valuable role for him.  We will see though.

Maybe it doesn't work and the price they paid could be dangerous in a few years.

Edit- just noticed Gafford hasn't missed a shot the last two games.  So, if you combine him and Hardaway shots, they are shooting around 50% combined.   

[dirkfansince1998]

I thought Gafford did what I was hoping for last night.  Now I admit it has been bumpy so far since the trade.  When the trade was made, I said that didn't think I would have done the trade for what we gave up.  But it happened.

I want him to play like 20 minutes a night (sometimes more) and just muck things up.  Cause issues at the rim with dunks, rebounds, and some rim protection.  This team could really use more easy baskets near the rim and some kind of presence.  I hope he provides that.  Let him focus on the things he does well and help him or limit the situations where he struggles.  If he plays hard, I think there is a valuable role for him.  We will see though.

Maybe it doesn't work and the price they paid could be dangerous in a few years.

Edit- just noticed Gafford hasn't missed a shot the last two games.  So, if you combine him and Hardaway shots, they are shooting around 50% combined.   

It doesn't really work like that. There are limitations that make a player unplayable in certain matchups or due to the overall structure of the roster. Maybe he would look better on a team like the Celtics with great spacing and four all defense level perimeter defenders next to him but he is playing on the Mavs. Next to two star players that are net negatives on defense. On a team that is already challenged when it comes to lateral quickness and perimeter defense. With mediocre spacing from SF/PF (Washington, Kleber, DJJ). Not a good setup for a big that cannot really defend the perimeter and doesn't provide any spacing.

If you look at the numbers the Mavs offense is nine points worse with him on the floor. Despite his great FG%. Defense is net neutral. The stuff that he is doing well isn't enough to overcome his short comings (at least on this team). The same lineups performed way better with Powell playing center. A fact that many people like to ignore.

Sorry for the rant but it just feels like we are talking in circles. Mavs chasing dinosaurs. Mavs fans asking for dinosaurs. Expecting them to help the Mavs. Only to end up with another big net negative. People talked themself into McGee. Now Gafford. Even Holmes was hyped as a potential solution.

We can be happy to have Lively and I really hope that instead of trying to turn him into another drop defense disaster the Mavs find a coach that takes advantage of his foot speed before it's too late.

[Smitty]

It doesn't really work like that. There are limitations that make a player unplayable in certain matchups or due to the overall structure of the roster. Maybe he would look better on a team like the Celtics with great spacing and four all defense level perimeter defenders next to him but he is playing on the Mavs. Next to two star players that are net negatives on defense. On a team that is already challenged when it comes to lateral quickness and perimeter defense. With mediocre spacing from SF/PF (Washington, Kleber, DJJ). Not a good setup for big that cannot really defend the perimeter and doesn't provide any spacing.

If you look at the numbers the Mavs offense is nine points worse with him on the floor. Despite his great FG%. Defense is net neutral. The stuff that he is doing well isn't enough to overcome his short comings (at least on this team). The same lineups performed way better with Powell playing center. A fact that many people like to ignore.

Sorry for the rant but it just feels like we are talking in circles. Mavs chasing dinosaurs. Mavs fans asking for dinosaurs. Expecting them to help the Mavs. Only to end up with another big net negative. People talked themself into McGee. Now Gafford. Even Holmes was hyped as a potential solution.

We can be happy to have Lively and I really hope that instead of trying to turn him into another drop defense disaster the Mavs find a coach that takes advantage of his foot speed before it's too late.

We can do this for all three centers, but you know that. Maybe you’re onto something with Powell and we should just play him 48 minutes and win every game!

[dirkfansince1998]

We can do this for all three centers, but you know that. Maybe you’re onto something with Powell and we should just play him 48 minutes and win every game!

Nice strawman. I don't blame you. It's difficult to argue in favor of a position that isn't supported by the available evidence. Powell, Kleber and Lively are net positives. Gafford is the worst rotation player on the roster if we are looking at on/off, +/-. Never stated that Powell is great or should be playing starter minutes. Just pointed out that the same lineups performed better with Powell on the floor.

And of course we can do this for all available centers. Feel free to make a big comparisation. I am going to start.

Lively on court +9.0 on/off +11.2
Powell on court +3.6 on/off +4.3
Kleber on court +1.4 on/off +1.3
Gafford on court -8.0 on/off -9.0

[Smitty]

Nice strawman. I don't blame you. It's difficult to argue in favor of a position that isn't supported by the available evidence. Powell, Kleber and Lively are net positives. Gafford is the worst rotation player on the roster if we are looking at on/off, +/-. Never stated that Powell is great or should be playing starter minutes. Just pointed out that the same lineups performed better with Powell on the floor.

And of course we can do this for all available centers. Feel free to make a big comparisation. I am going to start.

Lively on court +9.0 on/off +11.2
Powell on court +3.6 on/off +4.3
Kleber on court +1.4 on/off +1.3
Gafford on court -8.0 on/off -9.0

I didn’t feel like comparing 8 games of Gafford to 10 years of Powell but maybe Luka, Nico and Lindsey are wrong and you are right.

[KillerLeft]

Nice strawman. I don't blame you. It's difficult to argue in favor of a position that isn't supported by the available evidence. Powell, Kleber and Lively are net positives. Gafford is the worst rotation player on the roster if we are looking at on/off, +/-. Never stated that Powell is great or should be playing starter minutes. Just pointed out that the same lineups performed better with Powell on the floor.

And of course we can do this for all available centers. Feel free to make a big comparisation. I am going to start.

Lively on court +9.0 on/off +11.2
Powell on court +3.6 on/off +4.3
Kleber on court +1.4 on/off +1.3
Gafford on court -8.0 on/off -9.0

The question is about the extent to which continuity and chemistry contributes to those numbers.

I just don’t get why Gafford has to start to gain continuity and chemistry. I think starting him, or even trying to force him to a certain minute total, is a very bad idea.

[Smitty]

The question is about the extent to which continuity and chemistry contributes to those numbers.

I just don’t get why Gafford has to start to gain continuity and chemistry. I think starting him, or even trying to force him to a certain minute total, is a very bad idea.

And this I agree with completely. I don’t think he needs to start and I don’t think he needs to play 20+ minutes in every game. But he does offer something that the other two do not and in certain matchups that can be very effective. His size, energy, offensive rebounding, finishing and shot blocking are all positives. His perimeter defense, drop coverage defense, over committing for blocks, and suspect defensive rebounding are all negatives.