Playoff Rotation

[vfromlmf]

LUKA 40
KYRIE 40
DJJ 18
PJW 36
GAFFORD 24
EXUM 30
THJ 16
LIVELY 20
KLEBER 16
GREEN 0

[Jym]

I wonder how much we'll see
Luka/Kyrie/Exum/DJJ/PJW

Kinda small but that's a lot of switching and 3 point shooting.

[Scott41theMavs]

LUKA 40
KYRIE 40
DJJ 18
PJW 36
GAFFORD 24
EXUM 30
THJ 16
LIVELY 20
KLEBER 16
GREEN 0

Hope Green plays well enough to take some of Exum's minutes - not because Exum doesn't deserve them, but to minimize the risk of injury - and virtually all of THJ's. 

If anything bites the Mavs in the postseason aside from injuries, it's probably going to be the lack of a true third scorer. Love the supporting cast, but this roster depends on Luka and Kai combining for 60-70 per playoff game.

[fifteenth]

Hope Green plays well enough to take some of Exum's minutes - not because Exum doesn't deserve them, but to minimize the risk of injury - and virtually all of THJ's. 

If anything bites the Mavs in the postseason aside from injuries, it's probably going to be the lack of a true third scorer. Love the supporting cast, but this roster depends on Luka and Kai combining for 60-70 per playoff game.

I think the center position is now the third scorer. Does that work for ya?

[Scott41theMavs]

I think the center position is now the third scorer. Does that work for ya?

Can Gafford/Lively create their own shot? 

I'll hang up and listen.

[mvossman]

Can Gafford/Lively create their own shot? 

I'll hang up and listen.

I think Exum is the closest thing to what you describe.  Its only really important when one of Luka/Kyrie are off the court, which in a playoff game will not be more than 20 minutes.

[fifteenth]

Can Gafford/Lively create their own shot? 

I'll hang up and listen.

Without checking the stats, I think that in the stretch before DLive got hurt, the center position was leading the non LuKy scoring. And I agree with mvossman about Exum.

[SwisherPrice]

It's pretty much settled at this point. 8 man core rotation plus THJ with a quick hook if he's bricking everything.

Guards: Luka/Kyrie/Exum (has ability to play SF)
Forwards: PJ (can play some small ball center)/DJJ
Bigs: Gafford/Lively (who knows how healthy he will be)/Kleber (can play some PF)

Green looks terrible so he shouldn't get any minutes. I knew once he got that high ankle injury that his season was pretty much over. Seems like they tried to rush him back less than a month but he clearly shouldn't be out there right now. LeBron had a high ankle sprain a few years ago and was out almost 6 weeks.

Maybe Hardy has a chance if the offense is having a tough time but that's probably not going to be a good sign if things are so bad that they need his scoring.

If Powell sees any minutes then things either went really well or really bad with a blowout win/loss.

[Scott41theMavs]

It's pretty much settled at this point. 8 man core rotation plus THJ with a quick hook if he's bricking everything.

Guards: Luka/Kyrie/Exum (has ability to play SF)
Forwards: PJ (can play some small ball center)/DJJ
Bigs: Gafford/Lively (who knows how healthy he will be)/Kleber (can play some PF)

Green looks terrible so he shouldn't get any minutes. I knew once he got that high ankle injury that his season was pretty much over. Seems like they tried to rush him back less than a month but he clearly shouldn't be out there right now. LeBron had a high ankle sprain a few years ago and was out almost 6 weeks.

Maybe Hardy has a chance if the offense is having a tough time but that's probably not going to be a good sign if things are so bad that they need his scoring. 

If Powell sees any minutes then things either went really well or really bad with a blowout win/loss.

The Mavs' postseason pretty much lives or dies based on the health of that top eight, whom you have correctly identified.

[Chicagojk]

I think the Geeen and Hardaway minutes will be fascinating. Both are supporting actors but I think the Mavs will need at least one to take a hold of their minutes and be productive. They may be battling for the same minutes.

I am just done with Hardaway. Coach Kidd trusts him though. If he is hitting his shots he will probably be the bet to get the higher minutes.

It was good to see Green get some minutes prior to the playoffs. Unfortunately he did not look great. While he is in his fourth year, we have no idea how he will respond to playoff basketball. It was too big for him in his second year but that is pretty common for young players. This will be a big run for him on where he is in the next two years on the team.

With a healthy Exum, I think I like Green better over Hardaway. If the moment is not too big for him. My prediction is Kidd rides with Hardaway over Green as the series progresses.

[youzigizag]

Hardaway's defense has uncanny similarities to finish line tape. He is not playable unless he is on fire and the flames are of a blue hue.

Green should have 2 or 3 or hopefully 4 series of playoff basketball to prove his worth. I would put money on him. I hope he proves me wrong, not for me, but for himself. He does have offensive warts. Lets hope his defense and hustle impact far outweigh those flaws.

[The Jom]

Guessing:

L 40
K 38
PJ 38
DE 32
20 DG
20 DL
20 DJ
18 MK
16 TH

[youzigizag]

Guessing:

L 40
K 38
PJ 38
DE 32
20 DG
20 DL
20 DJ
18 MK
16 TH

Never, ever....EVER....underestimate Dwight Powel's influence within the Org.

I think Josh Green's hustle impact gets him minutes.

[dirkfansince1998]

It's difficult to come up with positions for PG/SG/SF: 144 minutes available

40 Doncic
40 Kyrie
24 Exum
20 DJJ
20 one out of THJ/Green, more likely THJ

If Exum can handle starter minutes I wouldn't mind an even further reduction of minutes for the Green/THJ spot.

Looking at PF/C:

PJ 36 Kleber 12
Gafford 24 Lively 12 Kleber 12

I think one out of Gafford and Lively isn't going to play more than 10-15 minutes. Based on the last few weeks and with the recent tragedy in mind it's probably going to be Lively. If the Clippers can force the Mavs to go small Kleber is going to get even more center minutes and DJJ probably plays some PF.

[Winter]

My guess is that THj will get minutes early in the Clippers series. But I'm also guessing that his impact early will determine his minutes going forward. If he's still in a funk, you really can't rely on him for very many minutes as the playoffs progress. He's too one-dimensional. In the event he shoots poorly, I suspect someone else will be the first guy off the bench.

[youzigizag]

Problem with Tim and Playoffs is his defense.

You cant keep him on the floor unless he is going flame thrower.

You literally have to bring him in and let him start launching or hope the team defense is backing him up enough to keep him on the floor.

Tim doesnt take as many bad shots in Playoffs. But...if he isnt shooting and scoring he is most likely getting targeted on Defense. So what do you do?

Its almost as if he has to be launching and hitting or he isnt worth keeping on the floor. Unless team defense is backing him up enough to keep him on the floor while he is cold or in between taking shots.

[DallasMaverick]

Problem with Tim and Playoffs is his defense.

You cant keep him on the floor unless he is going flame thrower.

You literally have to bring him in and let him start launching or hope the team defense is backing him up enough to keep him on the floor.

Tim doesnt take as many bad shots in Playoffs.  But...if he isnt shooting and scoring he is most likely getting targeted on Defense.  So what do you do?

Its almost as if he has to be launching and hitting or he isnt worth keeping on the floor.  Unless team defense is backing him up enough to keep him on the floor while he is cold or in between taking shots.

He's a lottery ticket.  When he's hitting, he's super valuable.  When he's not, he's a net negative.

I heard one of the commentators (maybe JJ Reddick?) say "It's a make or miss league. When you're on, you win, and when you're off, you lose." Or something to that effect.

One can certainly wish for greater consistency, but that's not how distance shooting usually works.

[youzigizag]

He's a lottery ticket.  When he's hitting, he's super valuable.  When he's not, he's a net negative.

I heard one of the commentators (maybe JJ Reddick?) say "It's a make or miss league. When you're on, you win, and when you're off, you lose." Or something to that effect.

One can certainly wish for greater consistency, but that's not how distance shooting usually works.

I think the better analogy is that Tim is like a slot machine.  Ride him if hes hot but you have to know when to walk away(bench him).

[Chicagojk]

My guess is that THj will get minutes early in the Clippers series. But I'm also guessing that his impact early will determine his minutes going forward. If he's still in a funk, you really can't rely on him for very many minutes as the playoffs progress. He's too one-dimensional. In the event he shoots poorly, I suspect someone else will be the first guy off the bench.

The Hardaway I would like to see in the playoffs (I am expecting he will get minutes...probably around 20) is the Hardaway after he goes 1-8 in the first half.  This Hardaway is more reserved and does not look to get his own all the times.   Just take good shots when you are in position to do so.  

What I fear is the Hardaway that goes 1-8 when he enters the game. Sometimes it is after he hits 2 of his first 3 shots.   Then you know there are at least 2 Hardaway heat checks coming.  Those drive me wild.   Only Kyrie and Luka have the right for those shots.   Even when he makes early shots, he typically shoots himself to a bad percentage because he takes really difficult shots.

[MaxiThreeba]

Nuggets 2023 Champions:

Joker - 40 mpg
Murray - 40 mpg
Gordon - 36 mpg
KCP - 34 mpg
MPJ - 33 mpg
Brown - 27 mpg
Uncle Jeff - 17 mpg
Braun - 13 mpg

Warriors 2022 Champions:

Klay - 36 mpg
Wiggins - 35 mpg
Steph - 35 mpg
Draymond - 32 mpg
Poole - 28 mpg
Looney - 20 mpg
Porter - 20 mpg
GPII - 17 mpg

Bucks 2021 Champions:

Middleton - 40 mpg
Jrue - 40 mpg
Giannis - 38 mpg
Tucker - 30 mpg
Lopez -29 mpg
Connaughton - 24 mpg
DiVincenzo - 23 mpg
Portis - 18 mpg
Forbes - 14 mpg

Minutes Average (My guess at Mavs player):

1 - 39 mpg (Luka)
2 - 38 mpg (Kyrie)
3 - 36 mpg (PJ)
4 - 32 mpg (Exum/Gafford)
5 - 30 mpg (Exum/Gafford)
6 - 24 mpg (Kleber/DJJ)
7 - 20 mpg (Kleber/DJJ)
8 - 16 mpg (Lively, if healthy)

Those 8 man averages leave 5 minutes unaccounted for.

Lively's health (physical and mental with what he's been through) is obviously a huge X Factor.  The Warriors went deeper into their rotation than the other two with spot minutes for a number of guys.  The Nuggets held very tight to that 8 man group, and also compare most favorably with what the Mavs 8 man group would be.

I think THJ and Green are two guys you go to for some hope of instant shooting (THJ) or a needed burst of energy/hustle (Green).