Ideal roles for the current roster

[Scott41theMavs]

Post-TDL update:

Luka - best player on a contending team. Clearly a 1.
Kyrie - 2
Lively - 5 right now, should be a 4 as soon as next year. Incredible.
Exum - 5, but needs to get healthy...
Gafford - 5 or 6
PJ - 5 or 6
Green - 6. Call me a homer when I had him at 9 last month. He's rounding into form.

THJ - 7. Probably should be lower.
Maxi - 9.
DJJ - 9, if that.
Powell - 10.
Hardy - 11.
Lawson - 12
OMax - 12
Morris - 15

In short, far more bullish on this team, if they can just get healthy. Still no 3 or 4, but a nice collection of players in the 5-6 range. Good job, Lindsay, I mean, Nico!

[DallasMaverick]

Post-TDL update:

Luka - best player on a contending team. Clearly a 1.
Kyrie - 2
Lively - 5 right now, should be a 4 as soon as next year. Incredible.
Exum - 5, but needs to get healthy...
Gafford - 5 or 6
PJ - 5 or 6
Green - 6. Call me a homer when I had him at 9 last month. He's rounding into form.

THJ - 7. Probably should be lower.
Maxi - 9.
DJJ - 9, if that.
Powell - 10.
Hardy - 11.
Lawson - 12
OMax - 12
Morris - 15

In short, far more bullish on this team, if they can just get healthy. Still no 3 or 4, but a nice collection of players in the 5-6 range. Good job, Lindsay, I mean, Nico!

Cuban!

[Scott41theMavs]

Cuban!

Wrong. But in any event, they have a legitimate 8-man rotation, which wasn't true a month ago.

[Scott41theMavs]

Update with four games left:


Luka - best player on a contending team. Clearly a 1.
Kyrie - 1b (B is for Batman to Luka's Superman)
PJ - 4
Exum - 4
Gafford - 5
Lively - 5 right now, should be a 4 as soon as next year. Incredible.
DJJ - 7. Really fits the system well, and his defense is a huge part of the success of our starting lineup. I don't see any chance of them being able to keep him this offseason, but maybe he is dumb enough to forego financial security for the joy of playing for a team that's winning and on which he's found a home.
Maxi - 8. Tremendous glue guy. Pun intended.
Green - 8. Felt pretty good about him, then he got hurt.
THJ - 10. Get him outta here.
Hardy - 11. Still not ready for the rotation, but has his flashes.
Powell - 11. Seems to have grown rusty with non-use, to the point that he borders on non-usable.
Lawson - 12.
OMax - 12. Frustrating how he's grown in the G-League and still can't get a chance with us.
Morris - 13. He really should be getting some burn with Lively out.

[SwisherPrice]

The playoff rotation is pretty much set at this point. 8.5 man rotation (with the 0.5 being whatever we get from THJ, good or bad):

Guards: Luka/Kyrie/Exum/THJ
Forwards: PJ/DJJ
Bigs: Gafford/Lively/Kleber

Everyone else on the bench can start practicing their towel-waving unless there's an injury. Maybe Green can be inserted in a one-off situation if they have a slow start in a game but for all intents and purposes, his season is over after that injury. Pretty difficult to return from that and then be in any kind of condition to play at a high level in the playoffs. As long as Lively's injury isn't too bad then we shouldn't see any Powell.

[KillerLeft]

The playoff rotation is pretty much set at this point. 8.5 man rotation (with the 0.5 being whatever we get from THJ, good or bad):

Guards: Luka/Kyrie/Exum/THJ
Forwards: PJ/DJJ
Bigs: Gafford/Lively/Kleber

Everyone else on the bench can start practicing their towel-waving unless there's an injury. Maybe Green can be inserted in a one-off situation if they have a slow start in a game but for all intents and purposes, his season is over after that injury. Pretty difficult to return from that and then be in any kind of condition to play at a high level in the playoffs. As long as Lively's injury isn't too bad then we shouldn't see any Powell.

I am not so sure Green won't get a chance at a bigger role, but yeah, it might work out like this. 

I'm also going to continue to ask if there will be enough minutes for BOTH Gafford and Lively. I have a feeling Lively's late injury puts him in position to get squeezed out just as much or more than what you're suggesting for Green. 

There are actually a few ways it could go, at this point, which is interesting.

[fifteenth]

I'm also going to continue to ask if there will be enough minutes for BOTH Gafford and Lively.

Interesting, pal. I was thinking they'd simply split the center minutes unless a special need to play small ball against a particular opponent pops up. How do you see their best use?

[KillerLeft]

Interesting, pal. I was thinking they'd simply split the center minutes unless a special need to play small ball against a particular opponent pops up. How do you see their best use?

I think they are very unlikely to be able to play a traditional center for north of 25 minutes per game against quite a few playoff opponents.

Kleber being healthy is one of my main sources of hope as we enter the postseason.

Because of this thinking, I was a little bit hard on the Gafford trade, despite liking the player. Just seemed like a high cost for depth. Of course, now that lively is injured, I sure am glad Gafford is here.

[The Jom]

Neither of these guys are in the mold of a traditional center, exactly. I see them switching onto the perimeter and sometimes holding up there. I see potential.

[KillerLeft]

Neither of these guys are in the mold of a traditional center, exactly. I see them switching onto the perimeter and sometimes holding up there. I see potential.

They are as close to traditional as can possibly fly in today’s game. You might like what you see on the few occasions they switch, but the reality is that this is mostly a drop coverage team now, and a big part of that is Kidd’s desire to defend the paint. The trend, league wide, seems to be moving away from switching everything at the moment. 

Honestly, it’s not that bad of a strategy, especially since another large factor in determining that they’re going to play that way seems to have been Kyrie Irving. Trying to avoid switching helps to keep him from getting targeted by larger players. I do cringe a little bit when they have Kleber playing in drop, but I think they’ve switched enough when he and Washington are out there for the team to be comfortable applying that strategy when needed.

[fifteenth]

I think they are very unlikely to be able to play a traditional center for north of 25 minutes per game against quite a few playoff opponents.

Kleber being healthy is one of my main sources of hope as we enter the postseason.

Because of this thinking, I was a little bit hard on the Gafford trade, despite liking the player. Just seemed like a high cost for depth. Of course, now that lively is injured, I sure am glad Gafford is here.

I have shared your thinking about this for years, although I find your explanations far more expert than my own. 

But what I've seen since the trade leads me to believe that the Mavs actually play better defense and offense with either Gaf or DLive on the floor. I haven't checked out the metrics on that for confirmation, though. 

Are you seeing that as well? If you do see them playing better with Gaf or DLive on the floor in these regular season games, do you think things might be different in the playoffs? I acknowledge that that may be the case, as teams try to target centers in space. 

This stretch of games has me leaning pro center, or at least, pro these two centers. 

I'm a Maxi fan as well. But Maxi plus one of the centers has actually played well (admittedly, without looking at the numbers).

[KillerLeft]

I have shared your thinking about this for years, although I find your explanations far more expert than my own. 

But what I've seen since the trade leads me to believe that the Mavs actually play better defense and offense with either Gaf or DLive on the floor. I haven't checked out the metrics on that for confirmation, though. 

Are you seeing that as well? If you do see them playing better with Gaf or DLive on the floor in these regular season games, do you think things might be different in the playoffs? I acknowledge that that may be the case, as teams try to target centers in space. 

This stretch of games has me leaning pro center, or at least, pro these two centers. 

I'm a Maxi fan as well. But Maxi plus one of the centers has actually played well (admittedly, without looking at the numbers).

Yeah, they are both great.

But, there are people around here who think they are great at switching, and Jason Kidd’s strategies lead me to believe that he does not share that opinion. 

So, when, in the course of a seven game series, their playoff opponents figure out how to FORCE those centers to switch onto their ball handlers, how do we think they will do?

My guess is not nearly as well as Kleber.

[mvossman]

I have shared your thinking about this for years, although I find your explanations far more expert than my own. 

But what I've seen since the trade leads me to believe that the Mavs actually play better defense and offense with either Gaf or DLive on the floor. I haven't checked out the metrics on that for confirmation, though. 

Are you seeing that as well? If you do see them playing better with Gaf or DLive on the floor in these regular season games, do you think things might be different in the playoffs? I acknowledge that that may be the case, as teams try to target centers in space. 

This stretch of games has me leaning pro center, or at least, pro these two centers. 

I'm a Maxi fan as well. But Maxi plus one of the centers has actually played well (admittedly, without looking at the numbers).

Its hard to compare Maxi with the two other bigs because they are used in different situations.  Maxi is generally used in small ball lineups (against other small ball lineups), and the one featuring Maxi/PJ is a net +15 with a crazy good defensive rating of 96.  The numbers say he has been more effective in that role than as a power forward next to one of the bigs, but again it is heavily driven by matchups.

[The Jom]

This is a smart thread. The kind of thing that keeps me coming back here so often. Thanks, guys. Ok enough sucking up (by me) for the day.

[LukaMVP]

PJ has the potential to be our 3rd option here he just needs to play more consistently at offensive end.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

PJ has the potential to be our 3rd option here he just needs to play more consistently at offensive end.

He could but I think if he is you need a really good almost interchangeable third/fourth option like Denver has with Porter Jr. and Gordon. Maybe Omax can be it, eventually. With Josh Green as our KCP low volume but efficient from 3 with good Defense.

[mvossman]

He could but I think if he is you need a really good almost interchangeable third/fourth option like Denver has with Porter Jr. and Gordon. Maybe Omax can be it, eventually. With Josh Green as our KCP low volume but efficient from 3 with good Defense.

Gafford is averaging 19 and 12 per 36 this year.  Lively is not quite there, but easily one of the best backup centers in the league right now.  I feel like we are getting our 3/4 scorer out of the center position.

[Scott41theMavs]

Gafford is averaging 19 and 12 per 36 this year.  Lively is not quite there, but easily one of the best backup centers in the league right now.  I feel like we are getting our 3/4 scorer out of the center position.

Contenders generally have three guys who can create their own shot (i.e. not in a million years "the center position" unless it's Jokic). I guess Exum is pretty close to that. Thing with Exum is 1) he was absolute trash as an NBA player before he remade himself extremely admirably in Europe, and 2) they've been handling him with kid gloves this year minutes- and responsibility-wise due to his injury history/proclivities. Can he make the jump to being a 30 mpg reliable playoff scorer? If so, give him the MIP award right now. Love him as a Mav, and hope he can do it. If he does, then it would seem to indicate (presuming health to the rest of the rotation) that there will also have been a parade in Dallas.

BTW, regardless, Exum's TO will make him 1) perhaps the league's best non-rookie bargain contract next year, and 2) really expensive to bring back in the summer of '25. That's his only shot at getting paid as an NBA player, so it's safe to say there won't be a discount for the Mavs.

At this point in his career, you don't rely on PJ to be your third option. I'll be happy if he steps up enough to be a reliable fourth option this postseason.

[mvossman]

Contenders generally have three guys who can create their own shot (i.e. not in a million years "the center position" unless it's Jokic). I guess Exum is pretty close to that. Thing with Exum is 1) he was absolute trash as an NBA player before he remade himself extremely admirably in Europe, and 2) they've been handling him with kid gloves this year minutes- and responsibility-wise due to his injury history/proclivities. Can he make the jump to being a 30 mpg reliable playoff scorer? If so, give him the MIP award right now. Love him as a Mav, and hope he can do it. If he does, then it would seem to indicate (presuming health to the rest of the rotation) that there will also have been a parade in Dallas.

BTW, regardless, Exum's TO will make him 1) perhaps the league's best non-rookie bargain contract next year, and 2) really expensive to bring back in the summer of '25. That's his only shot at getting paid as an NBA player, so it's safe to say there won't be a discount for the Mavs.

At this point in his career, you don't rely on PJ to be your third option. I'll be happy if he steps up enough to be a reliable fourth option this postseason.

When you have two elite creators in your starting lineup, I don't know that it is as important to have a third.  I do look at Exum as the third creator on this team.  I agree that his fragility is a concern, but I'm not worried about his struggles several years ago.  As for his contract in 25, we will have early bird rights and be able to pay him roughly MLE.  Too early to know if that is going to be enough or not, but I doubt he would go for more than that this coming offseason if he were available.

[Scott41theMavs]

When you have two elite creators in your starting lineup, I don't know that it is as important to have a third.  I do look at Exum as the third creator on this team.  I agree that his fragility is a concern, but I'm not worried about his struggles several years ago.  As for his contract in 25, we will have early bird rights and be able to pay him roughly MLE.  Too early to know if that is going to be enough or not, but I doubt he would go for more than that this coming offseason if he were available.

The third creator issue is pretty simple, and it's Kyrie - have his "injury struggles" over the years been real struggles, or just his way of taking personal vacations? If the latter, bad for his character, and great for us - he certainly won't be taking vacations during this run, as he very obviously believes in the team. If his past fragility has been genuine, the Mavs are likely screwed with regard to a deep playoff run, unless we get really, really lucky in that respect.

As far as Exum and contract, I would say that, were he a one-year like DJJ, any team that wouldn't offer him north of the MLE this summer didn't watch the Mavs play this year. If he has as good of a year or better next year, he'll be a $15 AAV man at least.