The missing forward: a poll

[KillerLeft]

It happens 1.7 times a game.  It is 10% of THJ’s volume and he scores 1.06 PPP coming off of screens.  

His spot up (1.12) and isolation (1.18) numbers are better.  Heck, DJJ’s spot up number (1.12) is better.  As a team we score 1.02 PPP, so it is a positive play.  But, we aren’t winning or losing games based on THJ coming off of screens well.

I disagree, vehemently. I think THJ’s skills have contributed quite a bit to winning games this year. Like, a LOT. 

And it’s not the amount of shots he gets off coming around screens that matters, is the amount of screens he runs around that matters. That’s the entire point, obviously. When the defense adjusts and plays him tightly, that is when the ball goes inside to Lively or Powell, or to some other player on a cut. 

It obviously also works in reverse, and THJ is one of the best at knocking down those shots when they sag off of him to cheat towards Lively, etc. I think it’s fair to say that the guys you mention, along with Green and Exum, can do THIS fairly well, but none as lethally as THJ. 

Are we not noticing that they are running like 10 plays for him in every game now? It has shocked me how involved in the offense he has been. They designed a significant portion of it around him, and no, freaking Tobias Harris cannot fill in for him.

There is no doubt in my mind that trading Hardaway, while possibly a good idea depending on the deal, will result in a marked uptick in minutes for either curry or Hardy. Literally, no doubt in my mind.

I also totally object to labeling him a “defensive sieve” especially the last couple of years. Honestly, I don’t even care if they trade him at this point, but he gets treated worse than Powell (for whom I also stick up) and he’s a way better player than Powell. WAY BETTER.

---

 A Tobias Harris ISO is just as efficient as THJ coming off a screen (and easier to manufacture)

Please kill me before I ever have to discover whether or not this is true. I can’t do it.

[KillerLeft]

I miss the days when we were talking about Paschal Siakam, who is actually a good basketball player.

If the Mavericks trade for Tobias Harris, I’m gonna lose my mind. Scorched earth.

[DallasMaverick]

I miss the days when we were talking about Paschal Siakam, who is actually a good basketball player.

If the Mavericks trade for Tobias Harris, I’m gonna lose my mind. Scorched earth.

How do you REALLY feel about him?

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I miss the days when we were talking about Paschal Siakam, who is actually a good basketball player.

If the Mavericks trade for Tobias Harris, I’m gonna lose my mind. Scorched earth.

A muted Scorched earth from KL is an improvement upon the full-on SCORCHED EARTH!!!! an Ayton trade would elicit. I think we are making progress. Just don’t mention the possibility of OMax being included (even jokingly.)

[juanc]

I'm going with Patrick Williams. The Bulls aren't really happy with him, he's been performing under expectations, but I think if he would embrace the defensive specialist role he would excel in it. He's also shooting around 40% from three.

https://twitter.com/StephNoh/status/1739840976422662576

https://twitter.com/AlexHoops_/status/17...8394276918

THe problem is, that he is playing better in the last month, so the Bulls are probably hesitant in trading him..

[DanSchwartzgan]

I miss the days when we were talking about Paschal Siakam, who is actually a good basketball player.

Something we agree on.

Though, I suspect you'll lose THJ and either GWill or OMax if that deal were to happen.  So, I'm not sure you'll be happy.  Of course, I might lose Josh Green in such a deal (though you've got to give to get and I'm OK with that depending on the rest of the package).

As I said somewhere else, the trick is getting to a bid that is good enough to beat other bidders while not being so much that it crushes you if he walks in the summer.

[KillerLeft]

Something we agree on.

Though, I suspect you'll lose THJ and either GWill or OMax if that deal were to happen.  So, I'm not sure you'll be happy.  Of course, I might lose Josh Green in such a deal (though you've got to give to get and I'm OK with that depending on the rest of the package).

As I said somewhere else, the trick is getting to a bid that is good enough to beat other bidders while not being so much that it crushes you if he walks in the summer.

In that deal, I’d be happy to give up Williams. That’s the role Siakim would be taking, the one he was supposed to play. That makes sense to me, because it leaves DJJ’s role relatively untouched.

[MrGoat]

Siakam's the dream but Kuz is worth at least checking the trade value of. People forget the guy did play 23 mpg in the playoffs in 21 games for a team that won a ring. People are too down on him because he's currently miscast as the Wizards' #1 option. And he's even on a declining contract

[ThisIStheYear]

If I had to guess, I’d predict the Mavs are looking at DFS or Isaiah Stewart. I’d be okay with DFS. I’d love a small deal to steal Leonard Miller (maybe for Hardy). Tobias would be okay. Wiggins would be an idiotic trade as would Kuz. I’m down for Siakam, but he’ll cost a lot, maybe too much when you factor in the contract. DJJ would be an excellent backup but I think the Mavs need a versatile, starting caliber wing along with one more playable big body. And the sky is blue. The Mavs needs obvious.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, Stein says the Mavs want a 4, but Siakam is not their top target. Assuming both of those pieces of info are real...

Markkanen
Grant
Green
Zion
Collins
Isaac

Who am I missing? I don't think Randle is available (thank God) and I can't see New Orleans moving Ingrim. Maybe Tobias Harris?

I don’t think Zion is going anywhere, so, I’ve removed him from your list.  Stein says PF, but I suspect it is more of a 4/5 than a 4/3, but who knows.  The trick, to me, is improving on GWill, but not sinking so much into the position that you totally block OMax.  You probably also want to leave yourself a path to retaining DJJ, so incoming salary can’t be dramatically larger than outgoing.

Here is an updated list with people who have received some kind of a mention:

L. Markkanen (pipe dream…we don’t have the assets)
J. Grant (probably in a class with Kuzma and a few others where there is not enough D)
D. Green (plenty of D if you don’t give up shooting to get him)
J. Collins (Two years left at big money might be better than longer term guys)
J. Isaac (probably too valuable to Orlando)
T. Harris (will take a pay cut, which helps with DJJ)
J. Kuminga (this is probably the dream scenario)
A. Wiggins (he plays part of his time at PF.  I’d do it if Moody attached)
P. Siakam (we may be out of the running here)
J. Stewart (might solve backup 5.  Questionable as a PF)
K. Kuzma (see J. Grant)
R. Hachimura (meh)
W. Carter (doesn’t solve the PF issue, but would help a ton at backup 5)
PJ Washington (I put him in the J. Grant/Kuzma class)
D. Finney-Smith (serious question…if he wasn’t an alum, would we take DFS or DJJ)
P. Williams (I like this idea a lot also)
M. Bagley (sucks less than he used to in limited minutes on a bad team…not an endorsement)
C. Boucher (could give some time at stretch 4 and 5.  Not exactly “force”)
B. Bogdanovic (I think Exum solves the need for this)
K. Olynyk (underrated guy who moves the ball well and can play the 4 or 5)


Who am I missing (because it is always someone we haven’t thought of)

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

That list seems pretty comprehensive (and I would take DFS over DJJ just for his shooting but it’s certainly more of a toss up than anyone would have expected).

I’m kind of baffled with the way this board talks about the defense of jerami grant and pj Washington specifically. I think defensive metrics, especially individual metrics, are going to skew heavily against players who play heavy minutes on teams with a bad overall defense like the hornets, pistons and blazers. Jerami Grant was Denver’s defensive ace when he left there. PJ Washington is normally asked to guard the best player on the other team for a reason (less of that now with bridges and miller on the roster but it was essentially the case every game last year). I understand the concerns of thinking these guys are offensive guys and we need a defensive one but the best defenders on that list in my opinion are Siakam, Williams, Kuminga and DFS and we don’t have a way of getting to three of those and probably don’t have interest in bringing DFS back.

I think it’s important also to think of how certain players will bring defense in playoff games because that level of intensity will bring out defensive effort. We haven’t seen Washington in that environment but go back and watch Grant defend Lebron in the playoffs before he left Denver and tell me that’s not good enough.

I know it’s just a highlight package but the first half of this video is a ton of PJ Washington help side rim protection which would pair really nicely with Lively. He has the talent to be a good defender, just a matter of the scheme making sense and him learning it.

https://youtu.be/7uD1C0izdck?si=md7m5yktQH907kdF

Long winded way of saying you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. Just got to remember we’re basically looking to upgrade Grant Williams at this point.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

L. Markkanen (pipe dream…we don’t have the assets)
J. Grant (probably in a class with Kuzma and a few others where there is not enough D)
D. Green (plenty of D if you don’t give up shooting to get him)
J. Collins (Two years left at big money might be better than longer term guys)
J. Isaac (probably too valuable to Orlando)
T. Harris (will take a pay cut, which helps with DJJ)
J. Kuminga (this is probably the dream scenario)
A. Wiggins (he plays part of his time at PF.  I’d do it if Moody attached)
P. Siakam (we may be out of the running here)
J. Stewart (might solve backup 5.  Questionable as a PF)
K. Kuzma (see J. Grant)
R. Hachimura (meh)
W. Carter (doesn’t solve the PF issue, but would help a ton at backup 5)
PJ Washington (I put him in the J. Grant/Kuzma class)
D. Finney-Smith (serious question…if he wasn’t an alum, would we take DFS or DJJ)
P. Williams (I like this idea a lot also)
M. Bagley (sucks less than he used to in limited minutes on a bad team…not an endorsement)
C. Boucher (could give some time at stretch 4 and 5.  Not exactly “force”)
B. Bogdanovic (I think Exum solves the need for this)
K. Olynyk (underrated guy who moves the ball well and can play the 4 or 5)


Who am I missing (because it is always someone we haven’t thought of)

Zach Collins -probably plays more 5 than 4 though.
Hayward can play PF in a similar way Bogi and Wiggins can

[Mavs2021]

That list seems pretty comprehensive (and I would take DFS over DJJ just for his shooting but it’s certainly more of a toss up than anyone would have expected).

I’m kind of baffled with the way this board talks about the defense of jerami grant and pj Washington specifically. I think defensive metrics, especially individual metrics, are going to skew heavily against players who play heavy minutes on teams with a bad overall defense like the hornets, pistons and blazers. Jerami Grant was Denver’s defensive ace when he left there. PJ Washington is normally asked to guard the best player on the other team for a reason (less of that now with bridges and miller on the roster but it was essentially the case every game last year). I understand the concerns of thinking these guys are offensive guys and we need a defensive one but the best defenders on that list in my opinion are Siakam, Williams, Kuminga and DFS and we don’t have a way of getting to three of those and probably don’t have interest in bringing DFS back.

I think it’s important also to think of how certain players will bring defense in playoff games because that level of intensity will bring out defensive effort. We haven’t seen Washington in that environment but go back and watch Grant defend Lebron in the playoffs before he left Denver and tell me that’s not good enough.

I know it’s just a highlight package but the first half of this video is a ton of  PJ Washington help side rim protection which would pair really nicely with Lively. He has the talent to be a good defender, just a matter of the scheme making sense and him learning it.

https://youtu.be/7uD1C0izdck?si=md7m5yktQH907kdF

Long winded way of saying you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. Just got to remember we’re basically looking to upgrade Grant Williams at this point.

Grant Williams is also featured 2-3 times in the highlights, getting blocked and stripped.

[DallasMaverick]

That list seems pretty comprehensive (and I would take DFS over DJJ just for his shooting but it’s certainly more of a toss up than anyone would have expected).

I’m kind of baffled with the way this board talks about the defense of jerami grant and pj Washington specifically. I think defensive metrics, especially individual metrics, are going to skew heavily against players who play heavy minutes on teams with a bad overall defense like the hornets, pistons and blazers. Jerami Grant was Denver’s defensive ace when he left there. PJ Washington is normally asked to guard the best player on the other team for a reason (less of that now with bridges and miller on the roster but it was essentially the case every game last year). I understand the concerns of thinking these guys are offensive guys and we need a defensive one but the best defenders on that list in my opinion are Siakam, Williams, Kuminga and DFS and we don’t have a way of getting to three of those and probably don’t have interest in bringing DFS back.

I think it’s important also to think of how certain players will bring defense in playoff games because that level of intensity will bring out defensive effort. We haven’t seen Washington in that environment but go back and watch Grant defend Lebron in the playoffs before he left Denver and tell me that’s not good enough.

I know it’s just a highlight package but the first half of this video is a ton of  PJ Washington help side rim protection which would pair really nicely with Lively. He has the talent to be a good defender, just a matter of the scheme making sense and him learning it.

https://youtu.be/7uD1C0izdck?si=md7m5yktQH907kdF

Long winded way of saying you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. Just got to remember we’re basically looking to upgrade Grant Williams at this point.

It’s tempting, especially after a loss, to think that we’ll be much happier with incremental upgrades. If only we could just be a little better!

But the price is often future assets. So we go from a 7-seed to a 4-seed, but end up with no draft picks and no cap flexibility.

I guarantee that the moaning and complaining among the fan base will last considerably longer than the temporary joy of some of the proposed deals I’ve seen, where we’re sending out young players and draft picks for mediocre players with big, long contracts.

[dirkfansince1998]

With the recent Hawks rumors we can probably add S,Bey and D,Hunter to the list, They split their minutes playing SF/PF.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

It’s tempting, especially after a loss, to think that we’ll be much happier with incremental upgrades. If only we could just be a little better!

But the price is often future assets. So we go from a 7-seed to a 4-seed, but end up with no draft picks and no cap flexibility.

I guarantee that the moaning and complaining among the fan base will last considerably longer than the temporary joy of some of the proposed deals I’ve seen, where we’re sending out young players and draft picks for mediocre players with big, long contracts.

Not sure I follow, a team should always been looking for ways to get better.  Feels like you're concerned about what kind of value you're getting or giving in a trade which I don't think was really part of what I was talking about, simply just commenting on a couple players in Dan's list.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I know it’s just a highlight package but the first half of this video is a ton of  PJ Washington help side rim protection which would pair really nicely with Lively. He has the talent to be a good defender, just a matter of the scheme making sense and him learning it.

https://youtu.be/7uD1C0izdck?si=md7m5yktQH907kdF

Long winded way of saying you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. Just got to remember we’re basically looking to upgrade Grant Williams at this point.

So, I agree with the philosophy here, but “who” is only part of the equation.  We also have to figure out the “cost” part of it.  If someone is good enough to want,  it will probably cost you something you don’t want to part with.  So, which youngster is going out the door and what is the matching salary that doesn’t ruin the value of the youngster you are sending.

You can pair say Hardy with either GWill or Holmes and make the numbers work.  Is the upgrade from GWill to Washington worth Hardy?  Also, why does Charlotte need Holmes (with Williams and Richards)?  GWill has shot .365% (from the field…the field, not 3) since the 7th game of the season.  Not sure he’s on anyone’s radar right now. Does THJ do anything for Charlotte?  Seems you’d need to find a third team that wants THJ.  Otherwise you might be adding a draft asset to Hardy to make the GWill for PJ deal.  We can all scoff at that cost, but why does Charlotte give up Washington for less?

[mvossman]

That list seems pretty comprehensive (and I would take DFS over DJJ just for his shooting but it’s certainly more of a toss up than anyone would have expected).

I’m kind of baffled with the way this board talks about the defense of jerami grant and pj Washington specifically. I think defensive metrics, especially individual metrics, are going to skew heavily against players who play heavy minutes on teams with a bad overall defense like the hornets, pistons and blazers. Jerami Grant was Denver’s defensive ace when he left there. PJ Washington is normally asked to guard the best player on the other team for a reason (less of that now with bridges and miller on the roster but it was essentially the case every game last year). I understand the concerns of thinking these guys are offensive guys and we need a defensive one but the best defenders on that list in my opinion are Siakam, Williams, Kuminga and DFS and we don’t have a way of getting to three of those and probably don’t have interest in bringing DFS back.

I think it’s important also to think of how certain players will bring defense in playoff games because that level of intensity will bring out defensive effort. We haven’t seen Washington in that environment but go back and watch Grant defend Lebron in the playoffs before he left Denver and tell me that’s not good enough.

I know it’s just a highlight package but the first half of this video is a ton of  PJ Washington help side rim protection which would pair really nicely with Lively. He has the talent to be a good defender, just a matter of the scheme making sense and him learning it.

https://youtu.be/7uD1C0izdck?si=md7m5yktQH907kdF

Long winded way of saying you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. Just got to remember we’re basically looking to upgrade Grant Williams at this point.

There is definitely some truth to playing on a bad defensive team will bring down individual defensive advanced metrics.  I think it also plays the other way.  Williams has been disappointing defensively, and part of that might be due to the fact that he was generally surrounded by better defensive players in Boston.

[mvossman]

I don’t think Zion is going anywhere, so, I’ve removed him from your list.  Stein says PF, but I suspect it is more of a 4/5 than a 4/3, but who knows.  The trick, to me, is improving on GWill, but not sinking so much into the position that you totally block OMax.  You probably also want to leave yourself a path to retaining DJJ, so incoming salary can’t be dramatically larger than outgoing.

Here is an updated list with people who have received some kind of a mention:

L. Markkanen (pipe dream…we don’t have the assets)
J. Grant (probably in a class with Kuzma and a few others where there is not enough D)
D. Green (plenty of D if you don’t give up shooting to get him)
J. Collins (Two years left at big money might be better than longer term guys)
J. Isaac (probably too valuable to Orlando)
T. Harris (will take a pay cut, which helps with DJJ)
J. Kuminga (this is probably the dream scenario)
A. Wiggins (he plays part of his time at PF.  I’d do it if Moody attached)
P. Siakam (we may be out of the running here)
J. Stewart (might solve backup 5.  Questionable as a PF)
K. Kuzma (see J. Grant)
R. Hachimura (meh)
W. Carter (doesn’t solve the PF issue, but would help a ton at backup 5)
PJ Washington (I put him in the J. Grant/Kuzma class)
D. Finney-Smith (serious question…if he wasn’t an alum, would we take DFS or DJJ)
P. Williams (I like this idea a lot also)
M. Bagley (sucks less than he used to in limited minutes on a bad team…not an endorsement)
C. Boucher (could give some time at stretch 4 and 5.  Not exactly “force”)
B. Bogdanovic (I think Exum solves the need for this)
K. Olynyk (underrated guy who moves the ball well and can play the 4 or 5)


Who am I missing (because it is always someone we haven’t thought of)

Nice list.  A few thoughts.

If you are going to put J Grant and PJ in a class of not enough D, then Harris surely has to be in that group.

I would put Stewart and WCJ in same category as guys that would make a lot of sense, but you would need to be able to sneak in 5 to 10 minutes of PF play to make it worth it.

Not a lot of good options in general.  I don't think there is any way it happens, but if there was some way to turn Kyrie into Murray (who is on the block) a lot of problems would be solved.  The timeline would be greatly improved, and our viable options would open up at power forward as it would not have to be as defense focused.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

January 15 is the day Kuz becomes trade eligible.