CONTEST: Mavs Season Record Prediction

[omahen]

Top 10 protected right?

Yes

[HoosierDaddyKid]

In a previous thread I said 46 wins and I am sticking with 46. I always want a top 4 seed but this year I have no idea what that will take. I’ll be happy if this teams play shows good progress and we learn to win close games.

No way they win 46 games, but you're entitled to your opinion.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://theathletic.com/4964033/2023/10/...hollinger/




Good read on the lower-tier teams in the West

[SleepingHero]

https://theathletic.com/4964033/2023/10/...hollinger/




Good read on the lower-tier teams in the West

In the wake of April’s embarrassing last-ditch tank to preserve a top-10 protected pick, 2023-24 feels like a huge year in Dallas, and I’m not sure how well it’s going to go. There is definitely the potential for the bottom to fall out if Luka Dončić decides he’s had enough and would rather be elsewhere, but don’t worry: The always-dependable Kyrie Irving is here to save the day.

Dallas’s depressing finish last season exposed all the holes on this roster beyond the top two names, and it’s unclear if any element of that improved in the offseason. It wasn’t for lack of trying, though: The Mavs turned the 10th pick into pick Nos. 12 and 24, while also flipping Bertāns into the slightly less onerous contract of Richaun Holmes, turning Reggie Bullock into Grant Williams via a sign-and-trade and re-signing Dwight Powell on a bargain deal. The Mavs did some discount shopping to land Seth Curry, Dante Exum (good in Europe last year!) and high-flier Derrick Jones Jr. for the bench.

As for those picks, first rounders Dereck Lively Jr. and Olivier-Maxence Prosper certainly check lineup boxes — Lively as a rim-diving shot blocker in the Tyson Chandler mold and Prosper as a big wing with 3-and-D possibilities. If those two click and Jaden Hardy evolves as a scoring guard, there’s at least the glimmer of hope of the Mavs having genuine young talent to surround Dončić in his prime years. Late-summer buzz had the Mavs looking at starting both rookies after they impressed in open runs.

On the other hand, the talent surrounding Dončić at present is decidedly underwhelming, Irving aside. It’s hard to come up with another Mav who would start for more than a small handful of the league’s other teams. Dallas’s third-best player is … Grant Williams? I guess? The rest of the roster is dotted with one-way players who have obvious limitations, from nil-and-D guy Josh Green to the aforementioned Curry and Jones to the streaky Tim Hardaway Jr. One of the reasons they can’t quit Powell (and Maxi Kleber, for that matter) is that they have so few players who are even half-decent on both sides of the ball.

Irving, of course, presents his own problems. A hugely talented offensive player, he teams with Dončić to make the Mavs an elite attack almost regardless of which three other players share the court with them, at least on the days when Irving is a) healthy and b) not blowtorching his team’s chemistry.

Dallas got 66 All-NBA-caliber games from Dončić last season and still went 38-44; the Mavs never recovered from the own goal of losing Jalen Brunson to free agency. Irving was theoretically the cure for what ailed them, but he only played 20 games for them after the deadline, so we still don’t have a great sample size for how this looks.

However, even in the best case where he and Dončić click for 75 games or so and the Mavs’ role players are acceptably mediocre, this doesn’t feel like a contending roster. The saving grace, however, is that Dončić is a one-man floor and an elite offense unto himself. He should keep the Mavs afloat for as long as it interests him.


^ Hollinger's write up on the Mavs.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This year we should be 52-30. If Kidd hasn't learned to scheme with the combo of Luka/Kyrie, getting Luka to play more off the ball, we're looking at 41-41.

[BoredAssistant]

41-41 due to missed games.  I was the furthest off on predictions last year so i imagine this bodes well.  eta: I now see 2 others with the same prediction but I don't think that matters.  I will forego any prizes.

[DallasMaverick]

This year we should be 52-30.  If Kidd hasn't learned to scheme with the combo of Luka/Kyrie, getting Luka to play more off the ball, we're looking at 41-41.

Hey! I can do that, too! Watch this:

If they play really well, and keep injuries to a minimum, and get a little luck, they might go 82-0.

On the other hand, if they play really badly, and have lots of injuries, and have bad luck, then they probably will go 0-82!

[juanc]

I think the Mavs finish somwhere in between 43-47 wins. 17-19 wins vs Eastern conference teams.

Lets say my prediction is 47-35

The Mavs have a deep team and that's a factor in the regular season. I also like how versatile this roster is

[ItsGoTime]

Alright, last week to get predictions in (or change yours up). I’ll post again when predictions are locked.

---

Just a clarification, if I liked your post, that means I saw a single prediction that is contest worthy. If you have multiple predictions, neither will count.

[rocky164]

46-36 fifth or sixth seed

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

This will all be interesting to look back on. I predicted 43 but I think I'm slowly getting slightly more optimistic now that roles are finally being defined slightly. We just live in a very reactionary sports take world and forget that two years ago Luke dragged this team to 52 wins and now we act like over 45 would be crazy. After the Kyrie trade we lost two games by double digit points and one was where Kyrie and Luka sat and another was the last game of the year we tanked. Kyrie/Luka lineups had a net rating of +4.2. I do think that the lightning rod of media that is Kyrie created headlines before any result actually happened and the truth may just be that so much of last year post trade was slightly fluke-y. I do think our win total was dragged down dramatically early season by injuries and terrible decisions around resting Luka when we didn't have to on early back to backs. I'm more intrigued by this team than any other in the Luka era and not because it looks like a contender or anything, but more because this is the first offseason we've had in ages that feels like an objective step forward both for the present and for the future so I'm interested to see how this new approach plays out.

[fifteenth]

I have no idea. I wouldn't be surprised by anything between 35 wins and 55 wins

[DanSchwartzgan]

Give me 48!   Do I have to disclose if that is wins or losses?

OK, 48-34

[KillerLeft]

Ok, official non joke prediction:

I'm not sure this is wise, but I also don't want to be in position to root against my Mavs all season. I'm going with 50 wins, on the dot.

50-32.

God help us all.

[IamDougieFresh]

I'm thinking something like this:

-Pretty decent start to the season due to the "easy" part of the schedule

-Ugly slump after that.

-Slightly over .500 at the ASB

-Finally start playing well consistently.

45-37

-Eliminated in the WCF

[BobyM]

I'm going with 45-37.

[IamDougieFresh]

I'm going with 45-37.

[fifteenth]

Maybe they'll get inspired by the Rangers

[ItsGoTime]

This year we should be 52-30. If Kidd hasn't learned to scheme with the combo of Luka/Kyrie, getting Luka to play more off the ball, we're looking at 41-41.

Just to be clear, I do not see a singular prediction in here for you, so as of now, there is no contest entry.

[ItsGoTime]

Predictions are locked.